automated vehicles and the built environment: scenario exercises caroline rodier, ph.d. associate...

Automated Vehicles and the Built Environment: Scenario Exercises

Caroline Rodier, Ph.D.

Associate Director, Urban Land Use and Transportation Center

Institute of Transportation Studies

University of California, Davis

and

Research Associate

Mineta Transportation Institute, San Jose State University

24 July 2015

Exercise Overview

Diverse expert workshop participants will break out into groups of 8 to 10 people to re-imagine and re-design a specific local geographic site in Ann Arbor and Detroit given a specified automated vehicle transportation system in the year 2040.

Exercise Overview• You Have Been Provided with Handouts that

Describe:

1. Built Environment Sites

2. Two Future Automation Systems (or Scenarios)

3. Future Socio-economic Trends

4. Automated Vehicle Pathways by Mode (Resource)

• Your Task:

1. Select and Apply System(s) and Trend(s) to Site(s)

2. Re-Imagine and Re-Design Site

3. Present Your Findings

List of Sites• Two downtowns (Ann Arbor and Mid-Town Detroit)

• Traditional residential urban neighborhood (Burns Park, Ann Arbor)

• More modern suburban neighborhood (Angell, Ann Arbor)

• Business park-like area (North Campus, Ann Arbor)

• Strip Mall (Arborland, Ann Arbor)

• Two freight oriented sites (Ambassador Bridge and CPG, Detroit)

List of Sites• You have been provided with text descriptions,

pictures, and maps of the sites.

• Please review these and make your selections.

• These materials are also to be used as resources as you re-design and re-imagine the site.

Future Automated Vehicle Scenarios • Two scenarios: ownership and shared

• Not predictions, but relatively extreme contexts in which to stimulate re-imaging and re-design.

• All assume level-four automation in 2040 Interact safely with pedestrian and cyclists

Platooning, noise, and safety benefits.

• Eight critical features of each scenario: payment model, transit, non-passenger travel, vehicle size, fleet size, costs, congestion, and parking Describe each of these later in my presentation.

Assignments

For the non-freight sites, each group will: 1. Specify who will live and work in the site.

2. Identify their needs, values, and preferences.

3. Describe a day in the life of typical individuals, households, and businesses.

4. Discuss resulting demands made on the space.

5. Redesign the space to meet the needs and preferences of those occupying the space given the selected automated transportation system and any specific economic and demographic trends.

Assignments

For the freight sites, each group will: • What entities supplying and demanding freight?

• What are the key origin and destination locations?

• How might automated truck travel be introduced into the regional transportation network? What are the barriers to implementing truck platoons with passenger vehicles? How might these barriers be overcome?

• What impact will automated truck travel have on the roadway network and the specific physical sites?

May use a nearer term time horizon (2025) in which trucks are fully automated and the personal vehicle fleet includes automated and non-automated vehicles.

DESCRIPTION OF AUTOMATED VEHICLE SCENARIOS FOR 2040

Ownership Shared-Taxi

Payment Model

• Private ownership

• Purchase or lease

• Monthly contract• Price varies by ride-

sharing, time delays, quantity of travel, and vehicle type

Ownership Shared-Taxi

Transit Service

• Bus and rail continue

• Automated Buses

• Local fixed-route bus replaced

• Other transit continues

Ownership Shared Taxi-Service

Non-passenger travel

• Personal business errands

• Personal business errands

• Local freight delivery

Ownership Shared-Taxi

Costs • Relatively high• $10K per year• Variable toll lanes

to avoid congestion

• Pay for peak-drop off and pick-up

• Relatively low • $1.2K to $8K per year

depending on service package

• Pay for peak drop-off and pick-up

Home Work

Shop

Ownership: AM Peak

Home Work

Ownership: AM Peak Choices

Mode Choice Pick-Up/Drop-Off Time

Off-Peak

Peak

Home

Shop

School

OR

Ownership: School Drop-Off and Mid-Morning Activity

Home Work

Shop

Shared -Taxi: AM Peak

Home Work

Shared-Taxi: AM Peak Choices

Service Choice Pick-Up/Drop-Off Time

Off-Peak

Peak

Home

Shop

School

Shared-Taxi: School Drop-Off and Mid-Morning Activity

Scenario Ownership Shared-Taxi

Vehicle Size

• No change • Vehicle(s)

must fit all household travel needs

• Size of vehicle matches specific travel need (e.g., very small vehicle for one passenger or large vehicle for group outing)

Ownership Shared-Taxi

Fleet Size

• 20% reduction in autos per capital

• 90% reduction in autos per capita

Ownership Shared-Taxi

Congestion Relatively high due to sprawl and increased auto travel

Relatively low because service costs control sprawl and decrease auto travel

Ownership Shared-Taxi

Parking 

• Less residential parking (household vehicle sharing)

• Less commercial parking and on-street parking

• Off-street non-residential parking minimizes land costs and relocation travel

• Less parking but more than shared-taxi model

• No residential parking, commercial, and on-street parking

• New off-street non-residential parking minimizes land costs and relocation travel

• Less parking, but less than ownership model

Ownership Shared-TaxiHigher levels of auto travel and congestion

Lower levels of auto travel and congestion

Higher quality vehicle travel at a price

Significantly reduced cost of travel for all; Travelers pay more for greater travel distances, solo use, and larger vehicles

New low-density land development in outlying areas of the region

New higher density development in central areas of the region; Some sprawl for very high income

Less proximate commercial parking and on-street parking

Huge reductions in parking space: no on-street, residential and proximate commercial parking

New off-street non-residential parking minimizes land costs and relocation travel

DESCRIPTION OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRENDS

Automation • Automation: job losses, income in-equality, lower cost of

living, and more leisure time.

• Job losses: transport, manufacturing, food production, retail, office, administrative, and logistics

• Raw materials and agricultural products remain valuable, but labor less valuable than attention and judgment.

• Many remaining jobs may be shared and “microjobs” or project oriented jobs that are offered on internet platforms (www.taskrabbit.com).

• 3-D printing (machines construct complex objects from digital designs) democratize means of mass production.

• New local industries focused on craftsmanship and artistry; “makerspaces” are common and the art scene flourishes.

Local Trends

• Falling population density, decentralized development patterns (or sprawl), and deterioration of the “first-ring suburbs,” but trend may be reversing, in walkable urban cores and close-in suburbs:

Growth in population (especially, college educated in 20s), economic, and property values.

Population is aging in these areas because younger people are priced out and are moving the drivable suburbs.

Lack of housing supply means that more people must live elsewhere and commute into Ann Arbor.