are we satisfied with the physics behind the co2 greenhouse effect ? greenhouse theory and...

Are we satisfied with the physics behind the CO2 greenhouse effect ?

· Greenhouse theory and radiative forcing· Radiative power balance and “global temperature”· Atmospheric equilibrium · Greenhouse theory paradoxes

R. Koch

EPS Energy Group meeting Lisbon Nov. 2014

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The greenhouse effect, a well-known mechanism

Koch - EPS Energy Group meeting Lisbon Nov. 2014

The gardener’s greenhouse

Solar light (visible)

Ground heats up and radiate IR

Glass

IR is blocked by glass

and radiated back and radiated back (SIR W/m2)

much more

Radiative forcing

and out

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Main references

Marko et al. ‘Climat: 15 vérités qui dérangent’ Texquis (2013) Berger A., ‘Le climat de la terre. Un passé pour quel avenir?’ De Boeck

Université (1992) Postma J.E., (2011) ‘Understanding the Thermodynamic Atmosphere

Effect’, http://www.ilovemycarbondioxide.com/pdf/Understanding_the_Atmosphere_Effect.pdf

Gerlich G., Tscheuschner R.D., ‘Falsification Of The Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects Within The Frame Of Physics’, (2009) arXiv:0707.1161v4.

Koch - EPS Energy Group meeting Lisbon Nov. 2014

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Greenhouse theory history

Greenhouse theory goes back to Arrhenius (1896) but was disputed at the time and abandoned

Was revived starting 1938-1940 in discussions investigating the effect of CO2 on climate

Koch - EPS Energy Group meeting Lisbon Nov. 2014

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Greenhouse experiment 1909 (*)

Koch - EPS Energy Group meeting Lisbon Nov. 2014

(*) R.W. Wood Philosophical magazine 19 (1909) 319-320.

Glass NaCl

T increases slightly faster

Conclusion: increase in T is due to trapping of air and suppression of convective cooling (same as in PC with broken fan) rather than blocking of IR escape

Experiment repeated + discussions on internet: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/08/revisiting-woods-1909-greenhouse-box-experiment-part-i/

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The radiative sun-earth balance

Koch - EPS Energy Group meeting Lisbon Nov. 2014

Power radiated by the sun deposited on the earth surface:

Power radiated by the earth

Balance p= 4

24 2

2(1 )s

s s e ese

RP T R

d

4 2; 1, 2 or 4e e eP T p R p

255K 18 Ce s eP P T

Te is the “radiative” temperature of the earth

Agrees with the radiated spectrum measured by satellite

Everybody agrees, but ground temperature 15°C

4 2240 W/mT

4 2390 W/mT

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Greenhouse theory: the IR is absorbed by gases and re-radiated, partly to ground

Koch - EPS Energy Group meeting Lisbon Nov. 2014

CO2 radiative forcing F[W/m2]=-6.3 ln(C/C0)

Thermodynamic paradox:

A colder body

Heats a hotter one

Alternative: heated gas moves up

Does not come out of basic physics principles:Maxwell’s equations+ fluid mechanics

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Radiation temperature is not surface temperature

Koch - EPS Energy Group meeting Lisbon Nov. 2014

Power radiated normally on a flat disk of radius Rd

Power radiated by the disk

24 2

2(1 )(1 )s

s s d e ese

RP T R

d

4 2; 1d d dP T p R p

62 Ce s dP P T No need of re-radiated power to explain higher ground

temperatures

0.25e

Te = -18°C at 5 km altitude

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Radiation temperature is not air temperature

Koch - EPS Energy Group meeting Lisbon Nov. 2014

Thermodynamic analysis: total internal energy of gas

At equilibrium (+ Cp nearly constant)

Ground temperature: +14.5°C

pU C T gh

6.5( 5) 18 [km, °C]p

dT gT h

dh C

Or from fluid theory:

0pC dT gdh

0 ; ; Bp p K p nk T g

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No need of greenhouse effect to explain large ground temperatures on Venus

Koch - EPS Energy Group meeting Lisbon Nov. 2014

Same analysis but atmosphere at ground 92 times denser than on earth (pressure similar to 1 km deep in earth ocean)

Lapse rate similar to earth

Ground temperature 465°C

9( 50) 15 [km, °C]T h

Without invoking any greenhouse effect or including any “radiative forcing” into the equations

/ 9 [K/km]pg C

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A greenhouse paradox in a fridge

Koch - EPS Energy Group meeting Lisbon Nov. 2014

0°C

0°C Radiative forcing (SIR W/m2)

Melts

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A greenhouse paradox in a fridge

Koch - EPS Energy Group meeting Lisbon Nov. 2014

0°C

0°C Radiative forcing (SIR W/m2)

Melts Melts

Am I satisfied with the physics behind the CO2 greenhouse effect ?

No

Koch - EPS Energy Group meeting Lisbon Nov. 2014

Extra slides

Koch - EPS Energy Group meeting Lisbon Nov. 2014

Koch - EPS Energy Group meeting Lisbon Nov. 2014

http://www.climate4you.com/

Koch - EPS Energy Group meeting Lisbon Nov. 2014

Marko (2013)

Koch - EPS Energy Group meeting Lisbon Nov. 2014

Marko (2013)

Koch - EPS Energy Group meeting Lisbon Nov. 2014