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AK Daily Predictive Services Briefing. Join with:

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Access Code: 824-605-389# Intro

New Fires in 48 hrs: 0

August Fires : 20

August Fires > 5 ac: 1

July Fires : 48

July Fires > 100 ac: 1

Alaska Tally 2020Last Briefing of 2020!

Yesterday

Precipitation Lightning

Max Temperature Min RH

Yesterday

~575 strikes

for last 2 days

Satellite

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Satellite

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TodayGFS 500 mb Upper Air (dm)

Surface Wind (kts)

Temperature (F) RH (%)

FFMC Cloud Cover (%)

20

40

80

60

24-Hr Forecast Precip (in)

10

20

30

40

Convective Potential (J)

Today 4 PMH

Tomorrow

Surface Wind (kts)FFMC Cloud Cover (%)

GFS 500 mb Upper Air (dm)

Convective Potential (J)

Temperature (F) RH (%)

20

40

80

60

24-Hr Forecast Precip (in)

10

20

30

40

Tomorrow 4 PM

Next Day

20

40

80

60

Surface Wind (kts)FFMC Cloud Cover (%)

GFS 500 mb Upper Air (dm)

24-Hr Forecast Precip (in) Convective Potential (J)

Temperature (F) RH (%)

10

20

30

40

Sunday 4 PM

Medium

Range

Backup procedure: Go to the following website. Save the

images that most closely correspond to

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-

parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&a

rea=ALASKA&ps=model

GFS 500 mb

Medium RangeTuesday 9/1

Wednesday 9/2 Thursday 9/3

Monday 8/31

Model

Confidence

Fuels &

Fire

Behavior

• ISIs show that spread & ignition potential

are low/moderate statewide; strong winds

in NE Interior raise some potential there.

• DMCs indicate the upper and mid layers

of duff are too wet to carry fire; surface

spread is the likely fire type.

• Spruce Adjective shows only isolated

stations that have any elevated potential,

and at this point in the season, not

enough drying can occur to bring bigger

fuels back to burnable.

Fuels & Fire Behavior

Spruce Adjective Rating

Duff Moisture CodeInitial Spread Index

Summary

Questions?

Call 907-356-5691

• Long-term Forecast

– Low pressure will remain over

the state, so cool and damp

will dominate most days

– Indices will continue to run

until freezeup.

– Put a fork in it, the 2020

Alaska Fire Season is done.

• Short-term Concerns

– Warm & mostly dry in south

today, while more PM showers

and thunderstorms in

southern & western Interior

– Big fall storm moving in over

the weekend; will bring strong

winds to much of the state

beginning Saturday night

– Chinook in southern Interior

on Sunday into Monday

– Significant rains expected to

begin in Southwest on

Saturday, South Central on

Sunday, progressing north

and east on Monday/Tuesday