apartment trends to watch
Post on 14-Jul-2015
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7 STORIES TO TAKE AWAY TODAY:
• The intertwined couple
• The 3 rules of development
• The iHome
• Justin time
• Leave it to Beaver
• The “Geezer Effect”
• 3 rules of forecasting
Source: Dupre + Scott www.duprescott.com
Capitalization rate: monthly(Tri-county; 5+ units)
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
Feb-
00
Feb-
01
Feb-
02
Feb-
03
Feb-
04
Feb-
05
Feb-
06
Feb-
07
Feb-
08
Feb-
09
Feb-
10
Feb-
11
Feb-
12
Feb-
13
Source: Dupre + Scott www.duprescott.com
Sales volume: monthly(Tri-county; 5+ units)
$0
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
$250,000,000
$300,000,000
$350,000,000
$400,000,000
$450,000,000
Feb
-00
Feb
-01
Feb
-02
Feb
-03
Feb
-04
Feb
-05
Feb
-06
Feb
-07
Feb
-08
Feb
-09
Feb
-10
Feb
-11
Feb
-12
Feb
-13
600564
Source: Dupre + Scott www.duprescott.com
Source: Dupre + Scott www.duprescott.com
Price per unit: monthly(Tri-county; 5+ units)
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000F
eb
-00
Feb
-01
Feb
-02
Feb
-03
Feb
-04
Feb
-05
Feb
-06
Feb
-07
Feb
-08
Feb
-09
Feb
-10
Feb
-11
Feb
-12
Feb
-13
Source: Dupre + Scott www.duprescott.com
Interest rates & capitalization rates
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Dupre + Scott www.duprescott.com
New units opened each year(Tri-county)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,0001987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Apartment unit size trend(Net rentable square feet; 20+ unit properties)
B
Source: Dupre + Scott www.duprescott.com
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000 1
89
0
18
95
19
00
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
Annual increase in 20-34 year olds’(King, Pierce, Snohomish counties)
600,000
625,000
650,000
675,000
700,000
725,000
750,000
775,000
800,000
825,000
850,000
875,000
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
Source: Dupre + Scott www.duprescott.com
The Geezer Effect
People turning 65 each year(Puget Sound region)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Source: Dupre + Scott www.duprescott.com
Source: Dupre + Scott www.duprescott.com
New versus “old” - rents(1 BR; In-city Seattle; 20+ units)
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
OlderNewer
+46%
Source: Dupre + Scott www.duprescott.com
+36%
Source: Dupre + Scott www.duprescott.com
Mortgage payment as % of rent(King County; 20+ units)
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
225%
250%
275%
300%1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Mortgage/RentLong term average
Source: Dupre + Scott www.duprescott.com
Source: Dupre + Scott www.duprescott.com
Vacancy forecast: Tri-county(King, Pierce, Snohomish counties; 20+ units)
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
Dec 12 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
GrossMarket
Source: Dupre + Scott www.duprescott.com
Source: Dupre + Scott www.duprescott.com
Rent forecast: Tri-county(King, Pierce, Snohomish counties; 20+ units)
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Dec 12 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
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