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Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 1
Ana Iglesias, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
La economía de agua de riego
24 Septiembre 2008
ana.iglesias@upm.es
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 2
PESETA (JRC)
Adaptation (DG Agri)
PICCMAT (6th FP)
CIRCE (6th FP)
SWAP (6th FP)
ClimateCost (7th FP)
MEDROPLAN (EuropeAid, MEDA Water)
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 3
• For the last 10,000 years we have been living in
a remarkable stable climate that allowed the
whole of the human development to take place
• In all that time, though the medieval warming
and the Little Ice Age, there was only a variation
of 1ºC
• Now we see the potential for sudden change of
between 2 and 6ºC – We just don’t know what
the world is like at those temperatures, we
have no idea if we can live in it
Adapted from: Robert Corell, The Guardian, Oct 2007
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 4
Production in a changing climate
• Objective: discussion
1. Critical thinking: What does climate change
mean for production?
– Complex outlook, multiple dimensions
– Challenges and opportunities
2. Solutions: What is the best future we can
hope for?
– Focus on policy integration
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 5
Climate
impacts
Climate
dynamics
Societal
dynamics
f
Rethinking climate impacts
Source: CIRCE
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 6
Climate dynamics Observed and projected warming in the EU
Source: Stott et al. 2004, Hadley Centre
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 7
More extreme eventsProjected changes in drought risk (%)
under the A1B MPI 2070-2100 scenario
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 8
Annual Streamflow in Bolarque and SPI
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
19
11
/12
19
19
/20
19
27
/28
19
35
/36
19
43
/44
19
51
/52
19
59
/60
19
67
/68
19
75
/76
19
83
/84
19
91
/92
19
99
/00
Hm
3
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
SP
I (2
4 m
on
ths
)
Ann Inflow SPI (24) Lineal (Ann Inflow)
Source: Iglesias et al., 2007
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 9
Changes in water supply and demand with climate change
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
% c
han
ge f
rom
baseli
ne
Irrigation demand Rservoir water inflow Available water resources
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
# 1. Scenarios:
Water supply and demand
#
#
#
#
#
9
11
12
8
7
6
5
4
3
210
1
Bilbao
Barcelona
Valencia
Madrid
Sevilla
Medite
rranean
Sea
France
Po
rtu
gal
Atla
nticO
cean
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
910
11
12
#
#
#
#
#
9
11
12
8
7
6
5
4
3
210
1
Bilbao
Barcelona
Valencia
Madrid
Sevilla
Medite
rranean
Sea
France
Po
rtu
gal
Atla
nticO
cean
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
910
11
12
Iglesias et al. 2008
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 10
Climate
impacts
Climate
dynamics
Societal
dynamics
f
Rethinking climate impacts
Source: CIRCE
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 11
Agricultural exports and imports (2006)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
EU USA China RoW
Mill
ion
t
Exports Imports
Global scale
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 12
# 2. Local realities (vulnerabilities)
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 13
Local realities (vulnerabilities)
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 14
Climate
impacts
Climate
dynamics
Societal
dynamics
f
Rethinking climate impacts
Source: CIRCE
Challenges
and
opportunities
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 15
Challenges and opportunities
Regional disparities
Crop yield changes under the HadCM3/HIRHAM A2 and B2 scenarios for the 2080s and for the ECHAM4/ RCA3
A2 and B2 scenarios for the 2080s and ECHAM4/ RCA3 A2 scenario for the 2020s compared to baseline
(Iglesias et al. 2007)
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 16
Boreal
• Expansion of areas and growing season
• Expansion of weeds, pests, diseases
• Risk of soil structure loss
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 17
Atlantic N
Atlantic C
• Sea level rise
• Floods, water-
logging
• Summer drought
• Environmental
policy
determines the
opportunities
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 18
# 3. Useful knowledgeThe role of the human capital, Gary Becker (Nobel Price, 1992)
Fuente: OECD
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/0/9/1916629.pdf
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 19Bordeaux red: Cabernet Sauvignon, Cabernet franc, Merlot, Petit Verdot, Carménère, Malbec
Atlantic S
• Decline of
high quality
crops
• Regulations
may limit
opportunities
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 20
Balance Carbono en Champagne
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 21
Continental N
Continental S
• Heat stress and drought in
summer
(e.g., 2007)
• Floods, water-logging
• Environmental degradation
• New crops, energy crops
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 22
# 4. Flexible risk management
• The past is not a reliable indicator of the future
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 23
Alpine
• Glacier melt
• Modification of the hydrological
regime with large implications
for soil erosion, water
availability, etc
• Further stress to highly
vulnerable areas
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 24
Med N
Med S
• Water scarcity and drought
• Conflicts among water
users
• Vulnerability of the complex
interactions of agriculture-
ecosystems
• Limitations of rural
development
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 25
The Stern Review of the Economics of
Climate Change (Stern et al, 2006)
• Argues that “the overall costs and risks of
climate change will be equivalent to losing at
least 5% of global GDP1 each year”
• Challenged by many economists with large
working experience in climate change (Tol,
2007). Ignores and contradicts numerous
unquestionable results (Nicholls and Tol, 2005;
Nordhaus, 2006; Sachs, 2001; Fankhauser and
Tol, 2005)
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 26
Change value of GDP 2080s (agriculture shock)
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
Rest of EU Med North Med South ROW
% c
hange
HadCM3 A2 HadCM3 B2 ECHAM A2 ECHAM B2
Source: Iglesias et al., 2007
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 27
Production in a changing climate
• Objective: discussion
1. Critical thinking: What does climate change
mean for production?
– Complex outlook, multiple dimensions
– Challenges and opportunities
2. Solutions: What is the best future we can
hope for?
– Focus on policy integration
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 28
Climate
impacts
Climate
dynamics
Societal
dynamics
f
Rethinking climate impacts
Source: CIRCE
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 29
• Kyoto protocol
• Lisbon strategy
• SD strategy
• EU White Paper on Adaptation
• CAP – WFD – Nitrates D – Energy D
• Local initiatives (early stages,
dissemination, awareness building)
Existing set of policies
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 30
Building
adaptive
capacity
Awareness raising
Research (spatial and time
dimension)
Knowledge transfer
Risk management
Policy support in order to
deliver adaptation actions
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 31
Building
adaptive
capacity
Delivering
adaptation
actions
Supported by policy
Strategic combination of
the CC commitments of
various policies
Technology, infrastructure
Changes in land use
Flexible resource
management and
efficiency
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 32
Role of
RD (CAP)
A flexible
framework
Axis 1
Farm modernization
Restoring & prevention
Farm advisory services
Training
Axis 2
Agri-env measures
Payments linked to WFD
Axis 3
Diversification into non-
agricultural activities
Leader
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 33
Natural
resources
dimension
Social
dimension
Technological
dimension
Economic
dimension
Climate
policy index
Vulnerability
Climate change
Impacts
# 5. Understanding how may policy modify climate risks
Define strategic combination of the climate change commitments in the various policies
Source: CIRCE
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 34
• Values range from 0 to 1
• High values indicate that current policies decrease potential impacts (the system has increased adaptive capacity, is less vulnerable)
Source: CIRCE
Climate
policy
index
Algeria 0.31
Egypt 0.43
France 0.62
Israel 0.48
Italy 0.61
Libya 0.30
Morocco 0.40
Spain 0.55
Syria 0.49
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 35
Climate impacts on agriculture
with different policiesHadCM3/HIRHAM B2 scenario for the period 2071-2100
(% yield change respect to baseline)
Agric output
Adaptation
Policy
Env (1)
Adaptation
Farm (2)
Adaptation
Policy
Econ /Rural Dev (3)
Mediterranean
Europe -50 to -25 1 0 to 20
(1) Adaptation with emphasis on water resources protection
and urban development
(2) Farm adaptation without policy support (private)
(3) Adaptation with emphasis with protection of agricultural
production and rural developmentSoure: Iglesias et al 2007
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 36
What is the best future
we can hope for?
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 37
Thinking more about …
1. Climate scenarios are not enough
2. Understanding of local vulnerabilities
3. Useful knowledge (involving practitioners, industry)
4. Moving towards a flexible, risk management
5. Understanding how policy modifies climate risks and opportunities
• Learning how to respond in the long term
• Learning how to avoid political crisis
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 38
Thanks for your attention!
ana.iglesias@upm.es
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