advantages, disadvantages and challenges of online course

TDM & Climate ChangeTDM & Climate ChangeKevin LutenKevin Luten

Transport is fastest growing sector of GHG emissions in OECD (↑25%) and non-OECD (↑36%) countries (1990-2002)

Similar growth forecast through 2030 Fastest growth in non-OECD countries, yet

OECD transport emissions still very significant

Climate Change & TransportationClimate Change & Transportation

Socolow and Pacala, Princeton University

TDM & Climate ChangeTDM & Climate Change

Transportation Wedge Options: Increase fuel economy of two billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg Drive two billion cars on ethanol or hydrogen* Drive two billion cars not 10,000 but 5,000 km/year (at 30 mpg)

Climate Change & TransportationClimate Change & Transportation

Transport solutions:1. Fuel-efficiency (vehicle & engine design)2. Decrease carbon intensity of fuels3. Reduce vehicle miles traveled

Total success with #1 and #2 does not address: Traffic congestion Public health

TDM & Climate ChangeTDM & Climate Change

Are there opportunities for TDM related to climate change?

Who are we selling TDM to? Individuals Businesses Political leaders

TDM & Climate ChangeTDM & Climate Change

Distinctions in TDM sales angles…

Congestion Air quality Public health (stress, obesity, etc.) Business bottom-line benefits Environmental benefits Energy efficiency, energy independence More…

Climate Change & IndividualsClimate Change & Individuals

Individuals… Washington Post / ABC News Poll:

Doubling within a year of Americans (33%) that think climate change is biggest environmental problem facing the world

Single digits in mid-1990s Katrina, temperatures, other weather events Inconvenient Truth IPCC Report, Stern Report

Climate Change & IndividualsClimate Change & Individuals

Washington Post / ABC News Poll: How willing are you personally to change some

of the things you do in order to help improve the environment - very willing, somewhat willing, not so willing or not willing at all?

94% - willing, somewhat willing What if it means some personal inconvenience

- would you be as willing to change some of the things you do, or less so?

85% - still willing

Climate Change & IndividualsClimate Change & Individuals

Climate Change & IndividualsClimate Change & Individuals

A standard environmental issue? Poll: 70% feel climate change will pose a serious

threat to future generations 63% believe we must start addressing it today 50% believe steps must be taken today, even if

there is a high economic cost to the US 40%, if politically conservatives

1,000 born-again or evangelical Protestants

Climate Change & IndividualsClimate Change & Individuals

Evangelical Climate Initiative: Climate Change: An Evangelical Call to Action Signed by 39 evangelical colleges, the

Salvation Army, Rick Warren, and others Positions climate change as a moral issue and

a social justice issue Calls for Federal action requiring

reductions in CO2 emissions

Individuals…

Climate Change & BusinessClimate Change & Business

Roles for business? Risk management Direct opportunities Competitive advantage

Reducing emissions “will save money for our customers, make us a more efficient business, and help position us to compete effectively in a carbon-constrained world.”

- Lee Scott, Wal-mart

Climate Change & BusinessClimate Change & Business

Business risks Physical Regulatory Competitive Reputational

Climate Change & BusinessClimate Change & Business

Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP): 304 investors, US$41 trillion (32%) Backed by HSBC, JP Morgan Chase, Bank

of America, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs Seeks information and data on emissions

and business risks and opportunities from climate change

940 of the world’s largest companies reported in CDP4 in 2006 (72% if FT500)

Climate Change & BusinessClimate Change & Business

GlobeScan, 2006

DEH, 2005

Climate Change & BusinessClimate Change & Business

Competitive Advantage on a Warming Planet: Quantify your carbon “footprint” (GHG inventory) Assess your carbon-related risks and opportunities Adapt your business Do it better than rivals

GHG InventoriesGHG Inventories

WRI / WBCSD Greenhouse Gas Protocol:

1. Organisational boundaries2. Operational boundaries

“direct” and “indirect” emissions

WRI / WBCSD

GHG InventoriesGHG Inventories

Guidance for Scope 3 emissions: “Relevance and significance” of these

emissions to org. operations or goals As defined by any / all of 4 factors:

1. Relative size2. Risk3. Stakeholder concern4. Company influence

GHG InventoriesGHG Inventories

Relative Significance

andInfluence

GHG InventoriesGHG Inventories

Companies influence commute behavior: 86% of employees without employer program drive

alone versus 71% of employees with employer programs (U.S. nationwide survey, 2001)

Total vehicle trips declined by 17% after employers at eight worksites launched parking cash out programs (Shoup, 1997)

Employees teleworking take 30% fewer daily trips, with a 63% reduction in VKT (all daily trips)

GHG InventoriesGHG Inventories

Companies influence commute behaviour:

GHG InventoriesGHG Inventories

Employer-paid parking increases solo driving 60%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Solo

driv

er s

hare

Driver-paid parkingEmployer-paid parking

42%

67%

GHG InventoriesGHG Inventories

Three examples: World Resources Institute IKEA Six New Zealand government agencies

Climate Change & BusinessClimate Change & Business

Overlapping corporate initiatives:1. GHG emissions analysis / mitigation (CDP)2. Sustainability reporting (GRI)3. Corporate social responsibility programmes4. Employee health & wellness programmes5. Workplace TDM programs

Climate Change & BusinessClimate Change & Business

LTNZ Workplace

Travel Planning

Guide

WRI GHG Protocol

Climate Change & BusinessClimate Change & Business

Critical issues moving forward: Establish norms for inclusion of employee

commutes in GHG inventories for knowledge and service organization (gov’t leadership)

Stress process linkages Carpe diem

Climate Change & PoliticsClimate Change & Politics

PlaNYC: A Greener, Greater New York Congestion charging, revenue for transit BRT lanes Increase bike paths, promote bicycling Eliminate tax on hybrids

Climate Change & PoliticsClimate Change & Politics

US Mayors Climate Protection Agreement –

600 mayors signed on

TDM & Climate ChangeTDM & Climate Change

Potential threats: Individual attitudes and motivation to act

unsatisfied, or satisfied through other means Cap-trade induced demand overwhelms TDM Business rapidly assemble climate change

strategies without TDM TDM not seen as too minor a solution Political push leads to funding and

mainstreaming of sustainable transport strategies separate from TDM groups

www.urbantrans-anz.comwww.urbantrans-anz.comKevin LutenKevin Luten +61 (03) 9018 5435 +61 (03) 9018 5435

lutenk@urbantrans-anz.comlutenk@urbantrans-anz.com