a system dynamics approach to global warming a system dynamics approach to global warming (noah)...

A System Dynamics A System Dynamics Approach to Global WarmingApproach to Global Warming

(Noah) Junho Kang(Noah) Junho Kang

IntroductionIntroduction

• Global Warming Debate

• “Greenhouse” gases

• Why should we worry?

Purpose/GoalsPurpose/Goals

• Create a convincing model of global warming scenario

• “Complicated enough to explain the whole scenario to a reasonable extent, but simple enough to be understood easily and applied”

Scope of the ProjectScope of the Project

• Estimate, to a certain degree, the effects that increasing amount of Carbon Dioxide gas will have on the Earth's atmosphere over a fixed period of time. The "effects" currently include, but is not limited to, global temperatures, frequency of hurricanes, methane release, and other consequences that will arise from increasing global temperature.

BackgroundBackground

• Daisyworld

• Parallel Computing-based Climate Simulations

• System Dynamics Modeling and Agent-based Modeling

• Netlogo’s System Dynamics Modeler

System Dynamics Model System Dynamics Model (Carbon Cycle)(Carbon Cycle)

Ocean Atmosphere Fossil Fuel

Soil Land BiotaOut/In

(Negligible)

Explanation of Variables UsedExplanation of Variables Used

• Fossil Fuel: Amount of Carbon present in Fossil Fuel

• Atmosphere: Amount of Carbon inside Atmosphere, directly affects Global Temperature

• Land Biota: Amount of Carbon present in Land organisms, like plants. Help control the amount of carbon by Photosynthesis/Respiration

Explanation of Variables UsedExplanation of Variables Used

• Soil: Amount of Carbon present in Soil, controls the amount of Carbon Dioxide in Atmosphere by respiration (and slowly recovers the amount of Fossil Fuel).

• Ocean: Amount of Carbon present in Ocean, mostly in the form of Carbon Dioxide and Methane dissolved in water. Potentially very important, helps control amount of carbon by dissolving it.

System Dynamics Model System Dynamics Model (Secondary)(Secondary)

Global Temperature

Ice Hurricanes

AlbedoOcean

TemperatureMethane

Explanation of Variables UsedExplanation of Variables Used

• Global Temperature

• Amount of Ice: Directly affects albedo of earth

• Albedo: Reflectance of earth, ranging from 0-1

• Ocean Temperature

• Methane

• Hurricanes

Other FactorsOther Factors

• Great ocean conveyer belt shut-down

• Changes in sunlight intensity

• Polar ice caps melt resulting in sudden salinity changes

• ?

Netlogo ModelNetlogo ModelSecondary Model

Variables Used

ResultsResults

ResultsResults

• Temperature increase of about 1-5 degrees globally?

• Even if carbon output was to completely shut down now, temperature will keep on increasing for a while

• Results hint at a possibility of accelerating temperature increase, aided by melting of ice caps and release of methane gas