a framework for the end game of disaster resilience: learning from global disaster laboratories

A FRAMEWORK FOR THE END GAME OF DISASTER RESILIENCE:

LEARNING FROM GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORIES

A FRAMEWORK FOR A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-

DISCIPLINARY INTEGRATION OF KNOWLEDGE FOR

GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE

IN THE 21ST CENTURY

1. SCOPEFROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS

TO POSSIBILITY OF A DISASTER

TODISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES

THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF“THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST

PRACTICES” FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

2. DISASTER RESILIENCE POLICIES

MUST CLOSE PRIOR KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS, AND

IDENTIFY WEAK LINKS IN THE PEOPLE/COMMUNITY

CONTINUUMS

3. FROM A DISASTER TO DISASTER RESILIENCE

A DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF PAST DISASTERS LEADS TO “COUNTER

MEASURES” THAT PREVENT RECURRENCES

A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that occur when the continuums of: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods, earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the people and community are not ready.   

THE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS

• PEOPLE ( 7 Billion and counting)

• COMMUNITIES• RECURRING EVENTS

(AKA Natural Hazards), which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM

• 7 + BILLION (DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT THE WORLD)

LIKE A CHAIN: EACH CONTINUUM HAS WEAK LINKS TO IMPROVE

WEAK LINKS IN THE COMMUNITY

• IGNORANCE• APATHY• DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES• LACK OF POLITICAL WILL

THE PEOPLE = INNOVATION

200 NATIONS AND 7+

BILLION PEOPLE

NORTH AMERICA

CARIBBEAN BASIN

SUB-SAHARAAFRICA

MEDITER-RANEAN

ISLAND NATIONS

ASIA

SOUTHAMERICA

EUROPE

THE RECURRING - EVENTS (HAZARDS) CONTINUUM

• FLOODS• SEVERE

WINDSTORMS• EARTHQUAKES• DROUGHTS• VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS• ETC.

THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM: (SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE)

• GOVERNMENT• DWELLINGS• SCHOOLS• HEALTH CARE

FACILITIES• BUSINESSES• INFRA-

STRUCTURE• ETC

INTERSECTION OF THESE CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE

SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL CAUSE A DISASTER,

AND SOME WON’T, WHICH IS THE GOAL

YOUR COMMUNITYDATA BASES

AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• FLOODS • SEVERE WIND

STORMS• EARTHQUAKES …

ETC

A DISASTER

CAUSESFAILURES IN POLICIES

FAILURES IN PRACTICES

COUNTER MEASURES

• BEST POLICIES• BEST PRACTICES

DISASTER RESILIENCE

MEASURES OF THE COMMUNITY STATE-OF-RESILIENCE

Anticipatory PreparednessAdoption and Implementation of a Modern Engineering Building Codes & Standards

Timely Early Warning and EvacuationTimely Emergency Response (including

Emergency Medical Services)Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction

THE STATE-OF-RESILIENCE INCREASES AS ---

a) The CAPACITY of the PEOPLE is increased, b) Physical and organizational VULNERABILITIES in the COMMUNITY are eliminated, and c) Each people-community-hazard INTERSECTION is met successfully.

EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE READY FOR THE INEVITABLE

INTERSECTION THAT WILL CHALLENGE ITS STATE OF

RESILIENCE

EARTHQUAKES

BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL

ENCOMPASS INNOVATIVE USE OF TECHNOLOGY

AND STRATEGIC PLANNING

INNOVATIVE USE OF EMERGING

TECHNOLOGIES

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN)

• INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS)

• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)

• DATABASES • DISASTER

SCENARIOS• ZONATION OF

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

• AUTOMATED CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMEMT

• PREFABRICATION AND MODULARIZATION

• ADVANCED MATERIALS (E.G., COMPOSITES)

• COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN

• PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS

• ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION)

• REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS

EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

USING GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE DISASTER LABORATORIES AS A BASIS FOR PREPARING FROM

“A” TO “Z” FOR FUTURE EARTHQUAKES

EMERGENCY RESPONSE: (BASED ON 1989 LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE

• M7.1• 63 DEAD• COLLAPSE AND LOSS

OF FUNCTION OF KEY TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE

• $ 1 BILLION INSURED LOSS

EMERGENCY RESPONSE: (BASED ON 1972 MANAGUA, NICARAGUA EARTHQUAKE)

• 10,000 DEAD• 20,000 INJURED• 300,000 HOMELESS• NEAR TOTAL

DISRUPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

• LOSS OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

• POLITICAL CHAOS

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (MEXICO)

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (EGYPT)

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (ALGERIA)

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (TURKEY)

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (IRAN)

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (INDIA)

EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

PROTECTION BY REDUCING PHYSICAL VULNERABILITIES

(THE TYPICAL FLAWS IN COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT)

PROTECTION (BASED ON JULY 2010 HAITI EARTHQUAKE)

• SEISMIC BUILDING CODES PREVENT BUILDING COLLAPSE.

PROTECTION (BASED ON JULY 2013 YA’AN CHINA EARTHQUAKE)

• SEISMIC BUILDING CODES PREVENT BUILDING COLLAPSE.

PROTECTION (BASED ON 1995 KOBE, JAPAN EARTHQUAKE)

• SEISMIC STANDARDS PREVENT LOSS OF FUNCTION OF CRITICAL LIFELINE SYSTEMS.

PROTECTION

• URBAN PLANNING FACILITATES AVOIDANCE OF HAZARDOUS LOCATIONS SUCH AS FAULT ZONES FOR CONSTRUCT-ION SITES

PROTECTION (SITE MODIFICATION Based on 1964 Niigata Earthquake)

• ENGINEERING TECHNIQUES (SOIL REMED-IATION) CAN PREVENT/REDUCE LOSSES FROM LIQUEFACTION

EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON 1989 LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE)

• M7.1• 63 DEAD• FIRE IN MARINA

DISTRICT • WIDE SPREAD LOSS

OF POWER • 1 BILLION INSURED

LOSS

EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON 1995 KOBE EARTHQUAKE)

• SEARCH AND RESCUE AFTER THE 5:46 AM EARTHQUAKE HELPED SAVE 3,000 ADULTS AGE 60 OR OLDER TRAPPED IN HOUSES.

SEARCH AND RESCUE (BASED ON 1988 SPITAK, ARMENIA EARTHQUAKE)

• INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE FROM MORE THAN 50 CONTRIES FACILITATED SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS

SEARCH AND RESCUE: L’AQUILLA EARTHQUAKE; APRIL 6, 2009

EMERGENCY RESPONSE: (BASED ON 1971 SAN FERNANDO, CA EARTHQUAKE)

• LOWERING THE WATER LEVEL IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE PREVENTED FLOODING OF LOS ANGELES.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON 1999 KOCALEI, TURKEY EARTHQUAKE)

• MASS CARE PROVIDED A SAFETY NET FOR THE HOMELESS DURING THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE AND EARLY RECOVERY PERIODS.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON 1999 KOCALEI, TURKEY EARTHQUAKE)

• A “TENT CITY” PROVIDED TEMPORARY SHELTER FOR THE HOMELESS DURING THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE EARLY RECOVERY PERIOD

RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: (BASED ON MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE)

• 88,000 DEAD• 30,000 INJURED• 300,000 HOMELESS• 25 MILLION

BUILDINGS DAMAGED• 45 MILLION PEOPLE

AFFECTED

EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE IS A TOOL FOR RECOVERY

• EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE SPREADS THE RISK AND SPEEDS RECOVERY (I.E., “RESTORATION TO NORMAL”)

INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE SPEEDS RECOVERY (2010 HAITI EARTHQUAKE)

• OVER $ 1 BILLION DOLLARS WAS DONATED IN A FEW WEEKS TO HELP HAITIANS SPEED RESTORATION OF SERVICES TO NORMAL.

RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: (BASED ON MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE)

• SCHOOLS ARE “SAFE HAVENS” SO ANY NEEDING TO BE REBUILT MUST BE REBUILT TO A HIGHER STANDARD DURING THE RECONSTRUCTION PERIOD.