a framework for the end game of disaster resilience: learning from global disaster laboratories
TRANSCRIPT
A FRAMEWORK FOR THE END GAME OF DISASTER RESILIENCE:
LEARNING FROM GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORIES
A FRAMEWORK FOR A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-
DISCIPLINARY INTEGRATION OF KNOWLEDGE FOR
GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE
IN THE 21ST CENTURY
1. SCOPEFROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS
TO POSSIBILITY OF A DISASTER
TODISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES
THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF“THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST
PRACTICES” FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
2. DISASTER RESILIENCE POLICIES
MUST CLOSE PRIOR KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS, AND
IDENTIFY WEAK LINKS IN THE PEOPLE/COMMUNITY
CONTINUUMS
3. FROM A DISASTER TO DISASTER RESILIENCE
A DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF PAST DISASTERS LEADS TO “COUNTER
MEASURES” THAT PREVENT RECURRENCES
A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that occur when the continuums of: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods, earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the people and community are not ready.
THE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS
• PEOPLE ( 7 Billion and counting)
• COMMUNITIES• RECURRING EVENTS
(AKA Natural Hazards), which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)
THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM
• 7 + BILLION (DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT THE WORLD)
LIKE A CHAIN: EACH CONTINUUM HAS WEAK LINKS TO IMPROVE
WEAK LINKS IN THE COMMUNITY
• IGNORANCE• APATHY• DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES• LACK OF POLITICAL WILL
THE PEOPLE = INNOVATION
200 NATIONS AND 7+
BILLION PEOPLE
NORTH AMERICA
CARIBBEAN BASIN
SUB-SAHARAAFRICA
MEDITER-RANEAN
ISLAND NATIONS
ASIA
SOUTHAMERICA
EUROPE
THE RECURRING - EVENTS (HAZARDS) CONTINUUM
• FLOODS• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS• EARTHQUAKES• DROUGHTS• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS• ETC.
THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM: (SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE)
• GOVERNMENT• DWELLINGS• SCHOOLS• HEALTH CARE
FACILITIES• BUSINESSES• INFRA-
STRUCTURE• ETC
INTERSECTION OF THESE CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE
SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL CAUSE A DISASTER,
AND SOME WON’T, WHICH IS THE GOAL
YOUR COMMUNITYDATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
• FLOODS • SEVERE WIND
STORMS• EARTHQUAKES …
ETC
A DISASTER
CAUSESFAILURES IN POLICIES
FAILURES IN PRACTICES
COUNTER MEASURES
• BEST POLICIES• BEST PRACTICES
DISASTER RESILIENCE
MEASURES OF THE COMMUNITY STATE-OF-RESILIENCE
Anticipatory PreparednessAdoption and Implementation of a Modern Engineering Building Codes & Standards
Timely Early Warning and EvacuationTimely Emergency Response (including
Emergency Medical Services)Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction
THE STATE-OF-RESILIENCE INCREASES AS ---
a) The CAPACITY of the PEOPLE is increased, b) Physical and organizational VULNERABILITIES in the COMMUNITY are eliminated, and c) Each people-community-hazard INTERSECTION is met successfully.
EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE READY FOR THE INEVITABLE
INTERSECTION THAT WILL CHALLENGE ITS STATE OF
RESILIENCE
EARTHQUAKES
BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL
ENCOMPASS INNOVATIVE USE OF TECHNOLOGY
AND STRATEGIC PLANNING
INNOVATIVE USE OF EMERGING
TECHNOLOGIES
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN)
• INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS)
• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)
• DATABASES • DISASTER
SCENARIOS• ZONATION OF
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
• AUTOMATED CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMEMT
• PREFABRICATION AND MODULARIZATION
• ADVANCED MATERIALS (E.G., COMPOSITES)
• COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN
• PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS
• ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION)
• REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS
EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
USING GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE DISASTER LABORATORIES AS A BASIS FOR PREPARING FROM
“A” TO “Z” FOR FUTURE EARTHQUAKES
EMERGENCY RESPONSE: (BASED ON 1989 LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE
• M7.1• 63 DEAD• COLLAPSE AND LOSS
OF FUNCTION OF KEY TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE
• $ 1 BILLION INSURED LOSS
EMERGENCY RESPONSE: (BASED ON 1972 MANAGUA, NICARAGUA EARTHQUAKE)
• 10,000 DEAD• 20,000 INJURED• 300,000 HOMELESS• NEAR TOTAL
DISRUPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
• LOSS OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
• POLITICAL CHAOS
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (MEXICO)
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (EGYPT)
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (ALGERIA)
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (TURKEY)
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (IRAN)
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (INDIA)
EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
PROTECTION BY REDUCING PHYSICAL VULNERABILITIES
(THE TYPICAL FLAWS IN COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT)
PROTECTION (BASED ON JULY 2010 HAITI EARTHQUAKE)
• SEISMIC BUILDING CODES PREVENT BUILDING COLLAPSE.
PROTECTION (BASED ON JULY 2013 YA’AN CHINA EARTHQUAKE)
• SEISMIC BUILDING CODES PREVENT BUILDING COLLAPSE.
PROTECTION (BASED ON 1995 KOBE, JAPAN EARTHQUAKE)
• SEISMIC STANDARDS PREVENT LOSS OF FUNCTION OF CRITICAL LIFELINE SYSTEMS.
PROTECTION
• URBAN PLANNING FACILITATES AVOIDANCE OF HAZARDOUS LOCATIONS SUCH AS FAULT ZONES FOR CONSTRUCT-ION SITES
PROTECTION (SITE MODIFICATION Based on 1964 Niigata Earthquake)
• ENGINEERING TECHNIQUES (SOIL REMED-IATION) CAN PREVENT/REDUCE LOSSES FROM LIQUEFACTION
EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON 1989 LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE)
• M7.1• 63 DEAD• FIRE IN MARINA
DISTRICT • WIDE SPREAD LOSS
OF POWER • 1 BILLION INSURED
LOSS
EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON 1995 KOBE EARTHQUAKE)
• SEARCH AND RESCUE AFTER THE 5:46 AM EARTHQUAKE HELPED SAVE 3,000 ADULTS AGE 60 OR OLDER TRAPPED IN HOUSES.
SEARCH AND RESCUE (BASED ON 1988 SPITAK, ARMENIA EARTHQUAKE)
• INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE FROM MORE THAN 50 CONTRIES FACILITATED SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS
SEARCH AND RESCUE: L’AQUILLA EARTHQUAKE; APRIL 6, 2009
EMERGENCY RESPONSE: (BASED ON 1971 SAN FERNANDO, CA EARTHQUAKE)
• LOWERING THE WATER LEVEL IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE PREVENTED FLOODING OF LOS ANGELES.
EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON 1999 KOCALEI, TURKEY EARTHQUAKE)
• MASS CARE PROVIDED A SAFETY NET FOR THE HOMELESS DURING THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE AND EARLY RECOVERY PERIODS.
EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON 1999 KOCALEI, TURKEY EARTHQUAKE)
• A “TENT CITY” PROVIDED TEMPORARY SHELTER FOR THE HOMELESS DURING THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE EARLY RECOVERY PERIOD
RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: (BASED ON MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE)
• 88,000 DEAD• 30,000 INJURED• 300,000 HOMELESS• 25 MILLION
BUILDINGS DAMAGED• 45 MILLION PEOPLE
AFFECTED
EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE IS A TOOL FOR RECOVERY
• EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE SPREADS THE RISK AND SPEEDS RECOVERY (I.E., “RESTORATION TO NORMAL”)
INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE SPEEDS RECOVERY (2010 HAITI EARTHQUAKE)
• OVER $ 1 BILLION DOLLARS WAS DONATED IN A FEW WEEKS TO HELP HAITIANS SPEED RESTORATION OF SERVICES TO NORMAL.
RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: (BASED ON MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE)
• SCHOOLS ARE “SAFE HAVENS” SO ANY NEEDING TO BE REBUILT MUST BE REBUILT TO A HIGHER STANDARD DURING THE RECONSTRUCTION PERIOD.