a decade of “pain” to follow a decade of “gain?” canacero september 11, 2013
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A Decade of “Pain” to follow a Decade of “Gain?”
CANACERO
September 11, 2013
Four Mega-Trends Will Determine the Outlook
Slower demand growth, economic uncertainty, overcapacity and increased competition are likely to result in a difficult environment for the steel industry through 2015-2017 and perhaps beyond. Chinese steel demand growth an increasingly important “wildcard.”
End of steel’s “Age of Metallics”
“Flattened” cost curve exacerbating the competition for the last tonne and delaying output cuts by steel mills. Currency weakness in Developing World ex-China adding a new wrinkle.
Is anyone prepared for the massive avalanche of Chinese steel scrap in the decade ahead, along with the accompanying ramifications on the global industry structure?
Unbalanced Global Steel Demand & Output
Fixed Asset Investment = Key Driver of Steel Demand
bil.USD % of GDP ASC % of ASC ASC/GDP bil.USD % of GDP ASC % of ASC ASC/GDP GFCF ASC
mt/bil.USD mt/bil.USD
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2,877 48.7% 563 93.4% 0.1957 1,756 12.0% 68 74.7% 0.0387 1.64 8.28
Non Residential 2,049 34.6% 413 68.5% 0.2016 1,366 9.3% 51 56.0% 0.0373 1.50 8.10Commercial and Health Care 23 0.4% 3 0.5% 0.1281 92.8 0.6% 4 4.4% 0.0431 0.25 0.75
Industrial Equipment 286 4.8% 90 14.9% 0.3151 160.7 1.1% 3 3.3% 0.0187 1.78 30.00
Information Processing 28 0.5% 3 0.5% 0.1053 600.1 4.1% 1 1.1% 0.0017 0.05 3.00
Manufacturing 888 15.0% 175 29.0% 0.1970 41.8 0.3% 16 17.6% 0.3828 21.25 10.94
Mining Exploration, Shafts and Wel 115 1.9% 23 3.8% 0.1999 105.8 0.7% 4 4.4% 0.0378 1.09 5.75
Power and Communication 153 2.6% 26 4.3% 0.1700 84.1 0.6% 7 7.7% 0.0832 1.82 3.71
Transportation 332 5.6% 71 11.8% 0.2142 113 0.8% 11 12.1% 0.0973 2.93 6.45
Other Equipment 223 3.8% 22 3.6% 0.0985 167.2 1.1% 5 5.5% 0.0299 1.34 4.40
Residential 829 14.0% 150 24.9% 0.1810 390 2.7% 17 18.7% 0.0436 2.12 8.82
Housing- all but social 652 11.0% 120 19.9% 0.1840 126.6 0.9% 12 13.2% 0.0948 5.15 10.00
Social housing 34 0.6% 5 0.8% 0.1471
Other structures 143 2.4% 25 4.1% 0.1754 263.8 1.8% 5 5.5% 0.0190 0.54 5.000.0%
Household consumption 2,158 36.5% 38 6.3% 0.0176 10,350 70.6% 24 26.4% 0.0023 0.21 1.58Auto and parts 300 5.1% 20 3.3% 0.0667 343 2.3% 18 19.8% 0.0525 0.87 1.11
Appliance and furnishings 94 1.6% 12 2.0% 0.1277 260 1.8% 3 3.3% 0.0115 0.36 4.00
Others 1,764 29.8% 6 1.0% 0.0034 9,747 66.5% 3 3.3% 0.0003 0.18 2.000.0%
Government consumption 693 11.7% 1 0.2% 0.0014 3,005 20.5% 1 1.1% 0.0003 0.23 1.000.0%
Net export 186 3.1% 1 0.2% 0.0054 -452 -3.1% -2 -2.2% 0.0044 -0.41 -0.50
Total GDP or ASC 5,914 100.0% 603 100.0% 0.1020 14,660 100.0% 91 100.0% 0.0062 0.40 6.63Population Million persons 1,341 311 4.31Total rebar consumption ( mil.t) 115 6 19.17GDP per capita (US$ / person) 4,410 47,138 0.09ASC per capita (kg / person) 450 293 1.54Rebar Consu. per capita (kg / person) 86 19 4.45*: Detailed Chinese GFCF figures are based on FAI figures reduced by 30% to made them comparable with reported GFCF as a share of GDP.
Source: WSD estimates, preliminary
China versus United States in 2010: Economic Indices versus Apparent Steel Consumption
Ratio: China/USAChina United States
5 0.0030
0.0035
0.0040
0.0045
0.0050
0.0055
0.0060
0.0065
0.0070
0.0075
0.0400
0.0500
0.0600
0.0700
0.0800
0.0900
0.1000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e
Intensity of consumption and net export on real GDP base(right axis)
Steel intensity of GFCF on realGDP base (left axis)
Chinese Steel Intensity for FAI and Household Consumption
6
Don’t Underestimate the Power of the “FAI Flywheel”
7
900.00
950.00
1,000.00
1,050.00
1,100.00
1,150.00
1,200.00
1,250.00
1,300.00
1,350.00
1,400.00
1,450.00
1,500.00
7,500
7,875
8,250
8,625
9,000
9,375
9,750
10,125
10,500
10,875
11,250
11,625
12,000
2004 Q
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2004 Q
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Fix
ed
Asset
Investm
en
t (b
illi
on
US
D)
Ap
pare
nt C
on
su
mp
tion
of S
tel P
rod
ucts
(millio
n m
etric
ton
nes)
Apparent Consumption of Steel Products (Right)
Fixed Asset Investment (Left)
Source: IMF, OECD, WSD Estimates
Global FAI vs. Apparent Steel Consumption
8
225.00
250.00
275.00
300.00
325.00
350.00
375.00
400.00
425.00
450.00
475.00
500.00
525.00
5,500
5,750
6,000
6,250
6,500
6,750
7,000
7,250
7,500
7,750
8,000
8,250
8,500
2004 Q
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2012e Q
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Fix
ed
Asset
Investm
en
t (b
illi
on
US
D) A
pp
are
nt C
on
su
mp
tion
of S
tel P
rod
ucts
(millio
n m
etric
ton
nes)
Apparent Consumption of Steel Products (Right)
Fixed Asset Investment (Left)
Advanced Countries FAI v. ASC (Absolute Figures)
9
240.00
250.00
260.00
270.00
280.00
290.00
300.00
310.00
320.00
330.00
340.00
350.00
360.00
370.00
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
2004 Q
1
2004 Q
2
2004 Q
3
2004 Q
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2005 Q
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2005 Q
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2005 Q
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2005 Q
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2006 Q
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2007 Q
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2008 Q
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1
2011 Q
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2011 Q
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2011 Q
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2012e Q
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2012e Q
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2012e Q
3
2012e Q
4
Fix
ed
Asset
Investm
en
t (b
illi
on
US
D) A
pp
are
nt C
on
su
mp
tion
o
f Ste
l Pro
du
cts
(m
illion
metric
ton
nes)
Apparent Consumption of Steel Products (Right)
Fixed Asset Investment (Left)
Developing World ex-China FAI vs. ASC
10
250
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370
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$500
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$1,200
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2009 Q
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2010 Q
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2010 Q
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2011 Q
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2011 Q
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2011 Q
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2012e Q
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2012e Q
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2012e Q
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2012e Q
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Fix
ed
Asset
Investm
en
t (b
illi
on
US
D)
Ap
pare
nt C
on
su
mp
tion
of S
tel P
rod
ucts
(millio
n m
etric
ton
nes)
Steel Products Apparent Consumption (Right)
Fixed Asset Investment (Left)
China FAI v. ASC (Absolute Figures)
Chinese Construction Market “House of Cards?”
Chinese Construction Market “House of Cards?”
13Increased consumption (and reduced FAI) as a share of GDP likely to mean much slower steel demand growth (outright contraction??)
China FAI Long-Term Outlook
India v. ChinaMinimizing Potential
GDP (% y/y)
Consumer Price
InflationSavings (%GDP)
Investment (%GDP)
Investment (% Change y/y)
Steel Demand (% y/y)
2000 4.0% 23.3% 24.2%2001 3.9% 3.8% 22.9% 22.6% -3.1% 0.7%2002 4.6% 4.3% 25.3% 23.9% 10.7% 4.1%2003 6.9% 3.8% 27.6% 26.1% 16.6% 6.6%2004 7.7% 3.8% 31.4% 31.2% 28.8% 4.2%2005 9.0% 4.2% 32.9% 34.2% 19.4% 51.2%2006 9.4% 6.2% 34.2% 35.3% 12.7% 6.8%2007 10.1% 6.4% 37.0% 37.7% 17.7% 12.9%2008 6.2% 8.3% 32.2% 34.6% -2.4% 0.4%2009 5.0% 10.9% 34.9% 37.0% 12.2% 26.4%2010 11.2% 12.0% 33.7% 36.9% 11.0% 4.1%2011 7.7% 8.9% 31.9% 35.3% 3.1% 9.2%2012 4.0% 9.3% 29.8% 34.9% 2.8% 0.3%
Source: IMF, WSD Estimates
Indian GDP Components 2008-2012
India v. ChinaMinimizing Potential
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
China Steel Dmnd India Steel DemandChina FAI (rhs) India FAI (rhs)
Mil
lion
Ton
nes
% G
DP
India v. ChinaMinimizing Potential
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
India Steel Dmnd @ China Growth Rate India Steel Demand China FAI (rhs)
Mil
lion
Ton
nes
% G
DP
17
Global Steel in the Decade Ahead:Continued Slow Growth
Four Mega-Trends Will Determine the Outlook
Slower demand growth, economic uncertainty, overcapacity and increased competition are likely to result in a difficult environment for the steel industry through 2015-2017 and perhaps beyond. Chinese steel demand growth an increasingly important “wildcard.”
End of steel’s “Age of Metallics”
“Flattened” cost curve exacerbating the competition for the last tonne and delaying output cuts by steel mills. Currency weakness in Developing World ex-China adding a new wrinkle.
Is anyone prepared for the massive avalanche of Chinese steel scrap in the decade ahead, along with the accompanying ramifications on the global industry structure?
19China’s prodigious and rapid growth via the BF/Integrated route changed the landscape of global steel production
Global Steel Production & Methodology:China Driving the “Bus”
183
444
527
690
39 44 49 80
289
300209
267
182209
147
181
140
151 136
166
104
164
152
183
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2003 2007 2009 2013f 2003 2007 2009 2013f
BOF EAF
China Advanced Developing
+43%
+19%
+31%
20Global iron ore demand has increased 703 million tonnes since 2003, of which China has accounted for 669 million tonnes (95%).
∆ = 697 Million tonnes
Global Iron Ore Demand
21Domestic production has increased 7.7% CAGR since 2000, while imports have grown 22% CAGR and account for 61% of the total requirement.
Chinese Iron Ore Supply
70 92 111 148208
275326
383444
628 619687 735
149 142161
193
209
284
323
368305
264 306
323
361
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Imports Production
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Ton
nes
22While Chinese demand increased 198% (14.6% CAGR) since 2003, the price of ore delivered to China has increased 293% (18.7% CAGR).
Iron Ore Price and Demand
$30
$50
$70
$90
$110
$130
$150
$170
$190
$210
$230
300
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2003
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Mil
lion
Met
ric
Ton
nes
Chinese Iron Ore Demand
Average Annual Price of Iron Ore Delivered to Hebei Province
Iron Ore Price Trendline
USD
per Tonne
23
Region Project Status Gross Capacity Region Project Status Gross Capacity
CIS 3.5 Europe 9.5Construction 3.5 Closed, reopen/plans 2
Europe 7.5 Closed, reopen/plans 7.5Closed, reopen/plans 5.0 Oceania 112.8
Feasibility 2.5 Conceptual 15North America 32.0 Feasibility 80.8
Construction 7.0 Operating, exp/constr 14Feasibility 3.0 Operating, exp/plans 3
Operating, exp/constr 8.0 South America 61.3Operating, exp/plans 14.0 Operating, exp/plans 10
Oceania 137.8 Feasibility 24Conceptual 15.0 Operating, exp/constr 27.3Construction 63.0
Feasibility 15.0 Under Construction/Operating 41.3Operating, exp/constr 1.8 Conceptual/Prefeasibility/Feasibility 119.8Operating, exp/feasib 43.0 Operating Expansion-Planning Stage 13.0
South America 147.5 Closed-Reopen Plans 9.5Conceptual 10.0 Grand Total 183.6Construction 19.5
Feasibility 19.5 Source: UNCTAD & WSD estimates
Operating, exp/constr 42.0Operating, exp/plans 4.1
Prefeasibility 50.0Operating 2.4
Under Construction/Operating 147.2Conceptual/Prefeasibility/Feasibility 158.0Operating Expansion-Planning Stage 18.1Closed-Reopen Plans 5.0Grand Total 328.3
Source: UNCTAD & WSD estimates
2013 Upcoming Iron Ore Projects 2014 Upcoming Iron Ore Projects(million tonnes) (million tonnes)
Capacity Expansion PipelineRunning Away from Demand
24Chinese “high-cost” production may amount to only ~75 million tonnes – a figure that is easily displaced by lower-cost imported material
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$1800
50 100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Do
llar
s p
er t
on
ne
Cumulative Capacity (Million Tonnes)
Chinese Iron Ore Cost Curve(Normalized to 62% Fe)
Source: WSD World Iron Ore Cost Curve
Chinese Domestic Iron ore Production Cost
25Chinese “high-cost” production may amount to only ~75 million tonnes – a figure that is easily displaced by lower-cost imported material
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$1800
200
400
600
800
1,00
0
1,20
0
1,40
0
Do
llar
s p
er t
on
ne
Cumulative Capacity (Million Tonnes)
World Iron Ore Cost Curve(normalized 62% Fe)
Source: WSD World Iron Ore Cost Curve
The cost curve database includes for non-China, 45 operating and 10 planned mines with a total capacity of 864 million tonnes, FOB the port of export; and for China, 45 individual mines, 10 steel-mill-weighted average cost mines and 21 provincial composite cost mines,FOB mine. The combined capacity of all the Chinese mines is 438 million tonnes.
Global Iron ore Production Cost
Four Mega-Trends Will Determine the Outlook
Slower demand growth, economic uncertainty, overcapacity and increased competition are likely to result in a difficult environment for the steel industry through 2015-2017 and perhaps beyond. Chinese steel demand growth an increasingly important “wildcard.”
End of steel’s “Age of Metallics”
“Flattened” cost curve exacerbating the competition for the last tonne and delaying output cuts by steel mills. Currency weakness in Developing World ex-China adding a new wrinkle.
Is anyone prepared for the massive avalanche of Chinese steel scrap in the decade ahead, along with the accompanying ramifications on the global industry structure?
27Despite rising I.O. and coal costs, Indian producers are well-positioned to remain among the lowest cost well into the future
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700A
ust
rali
a
Bra
zil
Ch
ina
CIS
Eas
tern
Eu
rop
e
Wes
tern
Eu
rop
e
Ind
ia
Jap
an
Sou
th K
orea
Lat
in A
mer
ica
US
A I
nte
grat
ed
Glo
bal
Ave
rage
$ pe
r to
nne
Pig Iron / Hot Metal Average Production Cost by Region
Energy Credit
Energy
Other
Labor
Scrap
Iron Ore
Coal/Coke
Wide Disparities between the “Haves” & “Have Nots”
28
Stronger US Dollar to Have Numerous Ramifications
80
90
100
110
120
130
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Per
cen
t
USA Trade-Weighted Dollar Value
Source: Bloomberg
6 years
7 years
9 years
10 years
6 years
WSD estimate
29Flattening of the cost curve promotes increased competition and delays production cutbacks when the price plummets below the marginal cost of the high-cost producer
WSD’s World Cost Curve for Hot-rolled Band (Including overhead)
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
$850
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650
US
D p
er M
etri
c T
on
ne
Cumulative Capacity (million metric tonnes)
August 2011
August 2012
August 2012
30WSD’s World Cost Curve has flattened substantially since the peak cost period in July 2011.
World ex-China Hot-rolled Band (Including overhead)
31Despite a decline in costs from recent peaks,
Chinese producers remain in a difficult position
ChinaHot-rolled Band (Including overhead)
Four Mega-Trends Will Determine the Outlook
Slower demand growth, economic uncertainty, overcapacity and increased competition are likely to result in a difficult environment for the steel industry through 2015-2017 and perhaps beyond. Chinese steel demand growth an increasingly important “wildcard.”
End of steel’s “Age of Metallics”
“Flattened” cost curve exacerbating the competition for the last tonne and delaying output cuts by steel mills. Currency weakness in Developing World ex-China adding a new wrinkle.
Is anyone prepared for the massive avalanche of Chinese steel scrap in the decade ahead, along with the accompanying ramifications on the global industry structure?
33
Chinese Scrap Overload
34
Steelmakers’ Metallics
35Obsolete steel scrap demand was 358 million tonnes in 2011 and the recovery rate was the highest on record. In 2012, the obsolete scrap requirement was flat at 358 million tonnes implying a 0.94 recovery rate from the obsolete scrap reservoir
that is on average 10-40 years old.
Global Steel Scrap Demand
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Obsolete Scrap Usage Ratio (RHS)
Obsolete Scrap Requirement (LHS)
New Scrap Usage (LHS)
Home Scrap Usage (LHS)
36
Global Steel Scrap Supply
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
mill
ion
met
ric to
nnes
Global Scrap Reservoir 1940-2010
Advanced Economies
Developing World ex-China
China
Advanced and Industrialized Developing Economies have been the dominant source of steel scrap supply [growth] in the past 30+ years
37WSD analysis indicates that the obsolete scrap recovery rate and the price of shredded scrap
price are highly correlated with a 0.90 coefficient of correlation.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0.7
00
0.7
25
0.7
50
0.7
75
0.8
00
0.8
25
0.8
50
0.8
75
0.9
00
0.9
25
0.9
50
Sh
red
ded
Scra
p U
SD
per G
ro
ss T
on
Ratio: Trade Adjusted Obsolete Scrap Usage to Average Reservoir 10-40 years old
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
20062005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
2012
Global Steel Scrap: Price versus Recovery Ratio
38
2013 Metallics Requirements
39
2025 Metallics Requirements
40
Chinese Obsolete Scrap:Supply-Demand Balance
0
50
100
150
200
250
Mil
lio
n M
etr
ic T
on
nes
Obsolete Scrap Reservoir 10-40 Years Old
Obsolete Scrap Demand
Shift: Scrap Deficit to Scrap Surplus
2015: +12 million
2020: +67million
2025: +150million
2012 Demand and Reservoir: 63 million tonnes and 57 million tonnes 2025 Demand and Reservoir: 67 million tonnes and 220 million tonnes
41
Chinese Obsolete Scrap:Increase BOF Scrap Ratio from 14.5% to 20%
0
50
100
150
200
250
Mil
lio
n M
etr
ic T
on
nes
Obsolete Scrap Reservoir 10-40 Years Old
Obsolete Scrap Demand
Shift: Scrap Deficit to Scrap Surplus
2020: +51 million
2025: +119 million
2012 Demand and Reservoir: 63 million tonnes and 57 million tonnes 2025 Demand and Reservoir: 101million tonnes and 220 million tonnes
42
Chinese Obsolete Scrap:Increase both EAF share of crude steel production
to 20% of all Chinese production
0
50
100
150
200
250
Mil
lio
n M
etr
ic T
on
nes
Obsolete Scrap Reservoir 10-40 Years Old
Obsolete Scrap Demand
Shift: Scrap Deficit to Scrap Surplus
2020: +47 million
2025: +117 million
2012 Demand and Reservoir: 63 million tonnes and 57 million tonnes 2025 Demand and Reservoir: 103 million tonnes and 220 million tonnes
43
Chinese Obsolete Scrap:Increase both EAF and BOF related consumption
0
50
100
150
200
250
Mil
lio
n M
etr
ic T
on
nes
Obsolete Scrap Reservoir 10-40 Years Old
Obsolete Scrap Demand
Shift: Scrap Deficit to Scrap Surplus
2020: +32 million
2025:+89 million
2012 Demand and Reservoir: 63 million tonnes and 57 million tonnes 2025 Demand and Reservoir: 131 million tonnes and 220 million tonnes
442013 Demand and Annual Reservoir: 68 million tonnes and 57 million tonnes
2035 Chinese Annual Reservoir: 400 million tonnes
Chinese Obsolete Scrap:Are you ready for arrival?
45
Thank You
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