"a brief history of data-drivenness", fabian stelzer

A Brief History of Data-Drivenness

@fabianstelzer

Data-Driven Decisions

800 BC - Pythia

Divination-Driven Decisions

Divination < Interpretation > Decision

Divination < Interpretation > Decisionmanual-opaque manual

800 BCI Ching

Divination < Interpretation > Decisionsystematic manual

Divination < Interpretation > DecisionBogus manual

Information < Interpretation > Decision

800 AD - Al Kindi

1670s - Leibniz

Instrumentum Arithmeticum

01

Should I really do this?

PROS CONS

“Moral Algebra”

1770s - Ben Franklin

Qualitative —> Quantitative

Information < Interpretation > Decisionsystematic-quantitativeempirical-manual

Information < Interpretation > DecisionProbability Theory

HeuristicsDecision Frameworks

NPV…

*Builds rationalmachines.*

*Shows humansaren’t rational*

1950s - Herbert Simon

“Increase decision quality with data”

1970s - IBM

1. inconclusive impact on decision quality

2. interesting impact on shrinking decisional effort

DSSs - did they work?

;-)

“Productivity Paradox”, 1987

“You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.” - Robert Solow

DSS vs Big Data

Big Data + Machine Learning = Decisive AI?

AI-automation of most/many decisions to minimize ‘human

factor’?

Will Larry Page fire himself when an AIwould be the better CEO?

59

75

Visual Excitingness

Visual Clarity

3s

Qualitatative —> Quantitative

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