"a brief history of data-drivenness", fabian stelzer
TRANSCRIPT
A Brief History of Data-Drivenness
@fabianstelzer
Data-Driven Decisions
800 BC - Pythia
Divination-Driven Decisions
Divination < Interpretation > Decision
Divination < Interpretation > Decisionmanual-opaque manual
800 BCI Ching
Divination < Interpretation > Decisionsystematic manual
Divination < Interpretation > DecisionBogus manual
Information < Interpretation > Decision
800 AD - Al Kindi
1670s - Leibniz
Instrumentum Arithmeticum
01
Should I really do this?
PROS CONS
“Moral Algebra”
1770s - Ben Franklin
Qualitative —> Quantitative
Information < Interpretation > Decisionsystematic-quantitativeempirical-manual
Information < Interpretation > DecisionProbability Theory
HeuristicsDecision Frameworks
NPV…
*Builds rationalmachines.*
*Shows humansaren’t rational*
1950s - Herbert Simon
“Increase decision quality with data”
1970s - IBM
1. inconclusive impact on decision quality
2. interesting impact on shrinking decisional effort
DSSs - did they work?
;-)
“Productivity Paradox”, 1987
“You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.” - Robert Solow
DSS vs Big Data
Big Data + Machine Learning = Decisive AI?
AI-automation of most/many decisions to minimize ‘human
factor’?
Will Larry Page fire himself when an AIwould be the better CEO?
59
75
Visual Excitingness
Visual Clarity
3s
Qualitatative —> Quantitative
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