4*.6-503 - statfox · pdf filevalue of a good4*.6-"503 the foxsheets simulator offers...

value of a goodThe FoxSheets Simulator offers many useful tools for handicapping

Category StatFoxGameSimulator Competition’sGameSimulatorsScore Projections Yes Yes

Multiple Score Projections Yes Very Rarely

Edge Indicators for Spread and Total? Yes Very Rarely

Game Statistical Projections Yes Not often

Detailed Breakdown of Simulation Run Yes Not often

Potential Trends to Consider for Projections Yes NEVER

Archived Results for Customer Analysis Yes NEVER

T H E S T A T F O X G A M E S I M U L A R T O R

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Bettors employ many different tools for handicapping footballgames.Someusetrendsandsystems,otherspayaserviceforpicks.Someapplytheirownsportsknowledge&logicandthereareeventhosewhosimplyguess.Combinationsofalloftheaforementionedtoolscanalsobeutilized.However,oneoftheincreasinglypopularresourcesthatself-handicappershaveaddedtotheirarsenalisthegamesimulator.Simply put, a game simulator is a computer “playing the game”. There are many sources that do game simulations. Some arefree,butsomeyouneedtosubscribeto.Don’tletthelatterdissuadeyoufrompursuingthem,astheoddsarethatthesegroupsspendfarmoretimeanalyzingandtweakingtheprojections forsuccess thanthe freebies.Plus, theoddsare that thecomplimentarysimulationsare utilizing statistics in their formulas that are time dated. Theyaren’t actually collectingand fueling their simulatornewdataonadailybasis.Ittakestimeandresourcestoputtogetherastronggamesimulator,andlikeanythingelse,it’sa“getwhatyoupayfor”world. With that said, StatFox takes great pride in offering its GameSimulator through the FoxSheets service (www.FoxSheets.com).Whilewewon’trevealthesecretformulaintheStatFoxComputer’smind,wewill say that it isacomplexcompilationofkeystatistics,team power indicators, and schedule strengths, and situationalfactors. The StatFox Game Simulator has been in existence forbothcollege&pro football since thecompany’s inception in2000,and is commonly known to predict games blindly in the 50-60%range on a yearly basis with various line range scenarios playingout evenbetter.However, you’ll see from the followingparagraphsthat the score projections by the StatFox Game Simulator arejust the beginning. With it, the football enthusiast is given somuch more that they can utilize in their handicapping routine. WhatclearlyseperatesStatFoxfromthenumerousothergamesimulator providers out there is the additional in-depth statisticalprojectionsandpotentialtrendsthataregivenandcanbeappliedtothegameinquestion.Mostproviderswillsupplyasingleprojectedscore with little or no reasoning behind it. StatFox, meanwhile,supplies not one, but two game score projections that come fromentirely different models. Plus, when a particular score varies greatly from a game’s spread or total, a clear EDGE INDICATOR or GREEN STAR will be given to that wagering option, limiting the chance for mathematical error or confusion by the bettor. Along with the scores, the handicapper is also privy to therushing, passing, and turnovers statistics expected in that game.Thesecanbeinvaluable,astheycanoftenprovideagreatindicationofthetypeofgame,orpacetoexpect.Someteamsdowellincertaintypes of games, and not in others. For instance, a team like GreenBay has thrived when it has been able to run the ball effectively.You’ll see more about this when we discuss the Potential StatFoxPower Trends a bit later. For now, these stat projections can alsoaid the fantasy football buff, who may be debating the meritsof two quarterbacks or running backs for the upcoming week.

The StatFox Simulator is run 75 times for eachweeklyboardgame inbothcollegeandpro football.Otherproviderswillarguethatthisisnotenough,butsixyearsofexperienceandnumerousregressiontestshaveproventousthatthedifferencebetweenrunningasimulation75timesand500timesisnegligible.Ofthose75simulations,StatFoxprovidesitsFoxSheetsusersabreakdownofhowmanytimesTeamAorBwonthegameand/orcoveredthespread,aswellashowmanytimesthepostedtotalwassurpassed.ManyFoxSheetsmembershavecreatedsuccessfulsystemsbyanalyzingthese particular projections and the Green Stars.

The final thing that the FoxSheets member will get from thesimulatorthatyoujustwon’tfindelsewhereisthePotential StatFox Power Trends based on estimated statistics favoring TEAM to

cover the spread or go OVER/UNDER the Total. The value ofthese just simply can’t be overstated, as the knowledgeable footballhandicapperknows that thepaceor typeofgamecanhaveahugeimpactonwhetherornotateamisevencapableofcoveringagame.Certainteamsexcelwhentheycanruntheball,andarehorriblewhentheycan’t.Otherteamsprovenearlyunbeatablewhentheyeclipseacertainpointbenchmark,etc.Havingagoodindicationofthetypeofgametoexpectandutilizingtheprojectionsinhistoricallyhighlysuccessful trendscanbeaveryprofitablemethodtohandicapping. BeforewegetintotheexamplesoftheStatFoxGameSimulatorfrom this past season’s championship contests, here is a quickreview of what separates our simulator from the competition

StatFox Game Simulator College Football Example

2006NationalChampionshipGame:Texasvs.USC,January4,2006USCwasranked#1andwasa7-pointfavorite,butTexaswasthefarbetterteamstatisticallyspeakingheadingintolastyear’sBCStitlegame.TheStatFoxGameSimulator(shownbelow)tooknotice.NotonlydidbothsimulationmodelsprojectanoutrightwinbyTexas,grantingdoubleEdgeStars,theyalsoclearlyshowedwhythatparticularresultwaspossible.Infact,ifyouexaminetherushingandpassingprojectionsfortheLonghornsinthegame,itisobviousthatUSCwasgoingtohavesometroublelimitingTexasineitherregard.VinceYoung’sabilitytobothrunandthrowtheballclearlyshonethrough.Nowgranted,therewerealsoclearindicatorsthattheTrojanswouldhavelittletroubleoffensivelyaswell,butthemorecapablenightofthatteamfiguredtobeTexas. TherearesomeparticularlyvaluablePotentialTrendsthatwereworthnotingheading into thegame.Firstoff,Texaswas10-0ATSin road games when it had rushed for 200-250 yards since 1992.The StatFox Game Simulator projected that the Longhorns wouldgain246.Theyactuallyexceeded thatnumberwith289,but itwasstillanawesomeindicatorofwhatTexas’chanceswereifitwasableto run the ball. Elsewhere, regarding the Potential Trends favoringTexasontheMoneyLine,you’llseethatUSC,despiteitsincredible

To the Right is a Screen Shot from CFB FoxSheets Archive 01.04.06

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success,was1-8against themoney line in its lastninegameswhenallowing6.5ormoreyardsperplay.Whenallwassaidanddone, thesimulatorwasfranklyscreamingthatifTexaswasabletomovetheballasprojected,itwouldbeinagoodspottowinandcoverthespread. Keep in mind as you analyze the StatFox Game Simulator for the 2006 BCS Title Game that none of the projections reflect anyone’spersonal opinion, nor any intangibles that USC and its experience may have brought into that game. No GOOD simulator will dothis. The function of a strong simulator is to remove these extra-curriculars, and provide a non-biased statistically projected viewof the game. It can be safely said that this particular StatFox Game Simulation, in the season’s biggest game, hit right on the money!

StatFox Game Simulator Pro Football Example 2006 Super Bowl Game: Pittsburgh vs. Seattle, February 5, 2006. The StatFox Game Simulation for this past Super Bowl wasn’tquite as revealing as that for the college title game, but there was still plenty that the handicapper could take from it to do well in thatgame. First off, the only Edge Indicator backed playing UNDER the total. While obviously that won easily enough, the projection wasmore important because it revealed that neither team would be able to exploit the other’s defense too greatly. While both teams wereprojected to score around 20 points, it was a missed field goal and interception at the 2-yard line that prevented only Seattle from doingthis. Had those two plays gone the other way, the simulation and the game for that matter would have had much different results. The Potential Trends shown on this simulation were also VERY revealing, particularly if you note the significant number oftrends favoring Pittsburgh to win the game outright. In fact, if you look closely, you’ll see that that there was just a single Potential

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Trend indicating that Seattle had a great shot of either winning the game or covering the spread! This simply wasn’t a good matchup forthe Seahawks, as Pittsburgh’s run-first, pass efficiently later philosophy was historically tough on Seattle. One other nice StatFox PotentialTrendrevealedthatPittsburghwasis21-9UNDERinroadgameswhenitsdefenseallowed150to200netpassingyardssince1992,withanaveragetotalscoreofjust36.WhileSeattleexceededgreatlywith259yards,mostofthatcameindesperationmodeinthe4thquarter. Remember, any StatFox Game Simulation since 2003 in all of the sports we cover is available to our Premium FoxSheetsmembers. Use this Archive to create winning simulator systems for the coming season and watch your profits grow!

Ad CouponThe difference is clear. The StatFox Game Simulator available on the FoxSheets is the best best alternative for the football handicapper. Visit us at

www.FoxSheets.com to download samples of our Game Simulator, along with our Super Situations, Power Trends, Advanced Team Stats Tables and more!First time members can receive a FREEMONTHofFoxSheetsservicewiththe3-monthPremiumSubscription.

See www.FoxSheets.com for details!

Below is a Screen Shot from NFL FoxSheets Archive 02.05.06