20110608 copenhagen
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Knowledge network for System Innovationsand transitions (www.ksinetwork.nl)
Sustainability Transitions &
Transition Management
Jan RotmansJan Rotmans Copenhagen, 08-06-2011Copenhagen, 08-06-2011
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Persistent problems• our society faces a number of persistent problemsour society faces a number of persistent problems
• many examples: climate change, energy supply, many examples: climate change, energy supply, water problem, mobility problem, agriculture, health carewater problem, mobility problem, agriculture, health care
• persistence is due to system failures that are deeply rootedpersistence is due to system failures that are deeply rootedin our societal structuresin our societal structures
• regular policy aimed at incremental improvementregular policy aimed at incremental improvementis not enough to resolve persistent problemsis not enough to resolve persistent problems
transformative change is neededtransformative change is needed
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• current policies are not adequatecurrent policies are not adequate
• market offers no real solutions for persistent problems market offers no real solutions for persistent problems
• stakeholder processes aimed at incremental changestakeholder processes aimed at incremental change
what could work?what could work?
• system failures require radical, transformative changes:system failures require radical, transformative changes:
system innovations / transitionssystem innovations / transitions
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fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in
societal (sub)systemsocietal (sub)system
• structure:structure: physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure (market, consumption, production), institutions(market, consumption, production), institutions
(rules, regulations, collective actors)(rules, regulations, collective actors)
• culture:culture: collective set of values, norms, perspectivecollective set of values, norms, perspective(shared orientation), paradigm (defining(shared orientation), paradigm (definingproblems and solutions)problems and solutions)
• practices:practices: routines, behaviour, ways of handling,routines, behaviour, ways of handling,implementation at the individual levelimplementation at the individual level
incumbent structure, culture and practices need to be brokenincumbent structure, culture and practices need to be brokendown and new (sustainable) ones need to be built up down and new (sustainable) ones need to be built up
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Examples of transitions
• from coal energy supply to gas energy supplyfrom coal energy supply to gas energy supply
• from fossil fuel based energy to renewable energyfrom fossil fuel based energy to renewable energy
• from an industrial - to service - to knowledge economyfrom an industrial - to service - to knowledge economy
• from physical, traditional media to social mediafrom physical, traditional media to social media
partly planned, partly emerging processespartly planned, partly emerging processes
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20 - 30 years
Acceleration phasePredevelopment phase
20 – 30 years
Multiple Phases
”
Widespread application
of new paradigms
Distribution and diffusion of societal advantages
Tipp
ing
Poin
t
Battle between old and
new paradigm
Build up and decay
of institutions
energy
Time
We are here
Consolidatiion
transport
fisheries
health care
agriculture
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Multiple LevelsMacro-levelglobalization, demographic trendshypermobilityclimate change
Meso-levellimited collective steering capacityfailing mobility policy Increasing norms for CO2, fine particles
Micro-level mobility innovation programmesmobility experiments
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Multiple ScalesMacro-level
+ scarcity fossil fuels + energy security + climate change - financial-economic crisis
Meso-level +/- Copenhagen treaty + WBC Sustainable Development. +/- EU-energy policy + regional / urban initiatives
Micro-level + decentral energy production + solar- and wind energy + energy pioneers (frontrunners) - law- and regulatory
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Multiple Patterns
Transformative Change arises fromTransformative Change arises from small, emerging changes at the micro-level small, emerging changes at the micro-level
bottom-upbottom-up creepingcreeping
induced changes at the meso-levelinduced changes at the meso-levelin betweenin between periodic shocksperiodic shocks
a massive, fast change at the macro-levela massive, fast change at the macro-levelttop-downop-down big bangbig bang
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Transition is Power Struggle
regime will try to maintain and defend its existing power regime will try to maintain and defend its existing power and will try to eliminate or assimilate niche-regimeand will try to eliminate or assimilate niche-regime
regime has diverse defence mechanisms in the form ofregime has diverse defence mechanisms in the form ofresistances: institutional, governance, technological, economicresistances: institutional, governance, technological, economicand social resistanceand social resistance
especially newcomers (niches), together with ‘change-inclined’especially newcomers (niches), together with ‘change-inclined’regime actors can break through the existing order and structure regime actors can break through the existing order and structure
transition = regime-shifttransition = regime-shift = shift in power = shift in power
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Why do transitions often fail?
game, rules and playersgame, rules and players
transition requires a new structure, culture and practicestransition requires a new structure, culture and practices
transition requires new rules, new players and new gametransition requires new rules, new players and new game
dominant players have too many interests to defend anddominant players have too many interests to defend anddondon’’t want to change the rules drasticallyt want to change the rules drastically
only new players can only new players can ‘‘break openbreak open’’ the game and change the game and changethe rulesthe rules
more, different, bettermore, different, better
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Sustainability as orientation
sustainability serves as guiding orientation for transitionsustainability serves as guiding orientation for transition
sustainable development is a socially and scientificallysustainable development is a socially and scientificallycontested notion: contested notion: no unique definition or approachno unique definition or approach
transitiontransition approachapproach
organize reflexive search and learning process with organize reflexive search and learning process with stakeholders [frontrunners] to assess what sustainabilitystakeholders [frontrunners] to assess what sustainabilityis in a particular contextis in a particular context
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Transition Governance
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Transition governancerules of thumbrules of thumb
• long-term thinking as the basis for short term policylong-term thinking as the basis for short term policy
• think in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), think in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), different actors (multi-actor), different actors (multi-actor), different levels (multi-level)different levels (multi-level)
• learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)
• using uncertainties as a starting point for governanceusing uncertainties as a starting point for governance
• keeping options open (wide playing field)keeping options open (wide playing field)
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Complexity characteristics translated in principles TM
Complexity characteristics
Theoretical Principles TM Systemic Instruments for TM
emergence creating space for niches transition arena
dissipative structures focus on frontrunners transition arena and competence analysis
diversity and coherence guided variation and selection transition experiments and transition pathways
new attractors, punctuated equilibria
radical change in incremental steps
envisioning for sustainable futures
co-evolution empowering niches competence development
variation and selection learning-by-doing and doing-by-learning
deepening, broadening, scaling up experiments
interactions, feedbacks multi-level approachmulti-domain approach
complex systems analysis
Patterns, mechanisms anticipation and adaptation multi-pattern & multi-level analysis
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Transition approachprinciplesprinciples
- put energy in frontrunners and not in the packput energy in frontrunners and not in the pack
- bring frontrunners together in protected spaces bring frontrunners together in protected spaces
- develop a long-term agenda, incl. vision + pathwaysdevelop a long-term agenda, incl. vision + pathways
- start with portfolio of transition experimentsstart with portfolio of transition experiments
- create new coalitions around pathways & experimentscreate new coalitions around pathways & experiments
searching, learning, experimentingsearching, learning, experimenting
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Transition approach cycle
vision, pathways,transition
agenda
transition arena
transition experiments
evaluation, monitoring
learning
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society
Transition arenasRegular policy arena- Short term- Peloton - Incremental change- Problem- and goal oriented
- Long term- Innovators - System-innovation- Problem- and goal searching
The transition arena space for experimenting and envisioning
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Transition Experimentsssocietal experiments with high risks (chance of failure) and ocietal experiments with high risks (chance of failure) and a high potential to contribute to a transition processa high potential to contribute to a transition process
how to manage portfolio of transition experiments?how to manage portfolio of transition experiments?
- deepeningdeepening [learn as much as possible from an experiment][learn as much as possible from an experiment]
- broadeningbroadening [repeating an experiment in a different context][repeating an experiment in a different context]
- scaling upscaling up [anchoring of an experiment in the regime[anchoring of an experiment in the regime]]
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Ongoing Transition Processes
in the Netherlands
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Ongoing transition processes
• at the national level ministries have official transition policyat the national level ministries have official transition policy
• energy transitionenergy transition• water transitionwater transition• construction sector transitionconstruction sector transition• materials and waste transitionmaterials and waste transition• mobility transitionmobility transition• biodiversity transitionbiodiversity transition• health care transitionhealth care transition
• at the regional level regional bodies have transition policy at the regional level regional bodies have transition policy
• at the local level municipalities experiment with transition policyat the local level municipalities experiment with transition policy
demand drivendemand driven
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Role of government notnot in a directing role in a directing role
butbut
• a facilitating, enabling, stimulating role a facilitating, enabling, stimulating role
• still an active but different rolestill an active but different role
- formulating vision and high ambition levelformulating vision and high ambition level- creating space for frontrunnerscreating space for frontrunners- stimulating and enabling transition experiments stimulating and enabling transition experiments - removing barriers for sustainable innovationremoving barriers for sustainable innovation
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Lessons
• natural tendency to an execution processnatural tendency to an execution process
• natural tendency of the government to fall backnatural tendency of the government to fall backin the command-and-control modein the command-and-control mode
• the first period is relatively easy, thereafter arisethe first period is relatively easy, thereafter arisewinners and loserswinners and losers
• space for frontrunners is of crucial importancespace for frontrunners is of crucial importance[financial, organizational, juridical, mental space][financial, organizational, juridical, mental space]
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ROTTERDAM CITY PORTROTTERDAM CITY PORT
Knowledge network for System Innovationsand transitions (www.ksinetwork.nl)
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Rotterdam City Port
= 1600 ha of Rotterdam in transition
= long term transformation [25-50 jaar]
= experimental garden for innovation of the city and harbour
= long term sustainability vision City Port [2030]
= execution programme 2010-2020
= 12 business cases
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Rotterdam City Port organic development trajectoryorganic development trajectory
sustainability vision sustainability vision
arenas with frontrunnersarenas with frontrunners
rules for developmentrules for development
iconsicons [floating pavillion, clean tech delta] [floating pavillion, clean tech delta]
vision-action intertwinedvision-action intertwined
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Sustainability Rules for City Port top 10top 10
1. energy neutral building1. energy neutral building
2. climate proof building2. climate proof building
3. development on the water3. development on the water
4. reuse of existing materials/products4. reuse of existing materials/products
5. green als carrier of development5. green als carrier of development
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Sustainability Rules for City Port
top 10top 10
6. diversity as starting point6. diversity as starting point
7. human standard as starting point7. human standard as starting point
8. building in cultural historical perspective 8. building in cultural historical perspective
9. sustainable exploitation and maintenance9. sustainable exploitation and maintenance
10. sustainable knowledge as economic driver10. sustainable knowledge as economic driver
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Icons
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incubator for new economy in Rotterdam and the Netherlands
will be located in Merwe/Vierhavens
started by business companies (frontrunners) and municipality
upcycling of waste, clean water, energy production, biomass
living lab = breeding place
Clean Tech Delta
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ARENA SESSIE 03 M4HAVENS 190111 VRIJSTAAT
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floating pavilion is learning exercise for floating district
stepping stone
floating district will be a learning exercise for floating city
learning-by-doing and doing-by-learning
Floating Pavillion
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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Floating City
water recreation
ecology:wetlands
technology: floating foundation
energy: decentral heat/cold storage
mobility: floating
highway, water taxi
living / working units
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Conclusions• transition thinking offers new perspective for persistent problemstransition thinking offers new perspective for persistent problems
• transition management seems a promising new governance modetransition management seems a promising new governance mode
• we need more empirical evidence for validating the concept ofwe need more empirical evidence for validating the concept of
transition managementtransition management
• City Port Rotterdam is transformed into a sustainable living,City Port Rotterdam is transformed into a sustainable living,
working and recreation area working and recreation area
• this transition process takes about 30 years and requires anthis transition process takes about 30 years and requires an
organic development trajectoryorganic development trajectory
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Growing interest in & outside Europe
Germany, England, Belgium, Austria, Finland
but also outside Europe
Australia, New Zealand, Japan, India, Canada
top related