2009 창업대전 글로벌 기업가정신 조사 global entrepreneurship monitor(gem) min-seok...

2009 창업대전

글로벌 기업가정신 조사Global Entrepreneurship Monitor(GEM)

Min-Seok Cha, Ph.D. Senior Researcher, KAIST CIE

Founder, InnovO Initiative

Researcher, GEM Korea

GEM Korea and Global Entrepreneurship Research Association

1. GEM 소개2. GEM 역사3. GEM 연구

1. GEM Intro : Background

• “Entrepreneurship is important for economic development”

• Need for better understanding of the links between entrepreneurship & growth, and the role of policy

• Lack of detailed internationally comparable data

© 2009, by the Global Entrepreneurship Research Association

1. GEM Intro: Purpose

• GEM focuses on three main objectives:– To measure ‘differences’ in the level of

entrepreneurial activity between countries

– To uncover “factors determining” national levels of entrepreneurial activity

– To identify “policies that may enhance” national levels of entrepreneurial activity

1. What’s GEM: Unique Features

• Largest study on entrepreneurship in the world• GEM focuses on individuals in the entrepreneurial

process• Monitoring entrepreneurship by conducting Adult

Population Surveys– Minimum 2,000 per country– Allows exploring several types and phases of the

entrepreneurial process

• Growing dataset– Over 1,000,000 data points between 2001-2008

• Numerous indicators can be extracted

1. What’s GEM: Unique Features

• GEM reports on special topics– Finance– Growth Expectation Entrepreneurship– Female Entrepreneurship– Entrepreneurship Education and Training

• Research method also applicable to regions & cities

© 2009, by Niels Bosma and the Global Entrepreneurship Research Association

2. GEM History• GEM was initiated in 1997

– Pioneers: Michael Hay (London) and Bill Bygrave (Babson) – Founding institutions: London Business School & Babson College

• First GEM report in 1999– Principal Investigator: Paul Reynolds– 10 countries in 1999, 31 countries in 2003

• GERA established in 2004: consortium of participating national teams– GEM continues to expand, 65 countries involved since 1998– Country micro-sites on www.gemconsortium.org

• New global sponsor in 2008– Universidad del Desarollo (Santiago, Chile)

• New members and Sponsors in 2009

© 2009, by Niels Bosma and the Global Entrepreneurship Research Association

GEM Countries 1999

© 2009, by Niels Bosma and the Global Entrepreneurship Research Association

GEM Countries 1999-2008

• 43 countries in 2008• More than 50 countries in 2009

GEM 2008 CountriesFactor-driven economiesAngola, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina*, Colombia*, Ecuador*, Egypt, India, Iran*Efficiency-driven economiesArgentina, Brazil, Chile, Croatia**, Dominican Republic, Hungary**, Jamaica, Latvia, Macedonia, Mexico, Peru, Romania, Russia, Serbia, South Africa, Turkey, UruguayInnovation-driven economies Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea Republic, Netherlands, Norway, Slovenia, Spain, United Kingdom, United States

* Transition country: from factor-driven to efficiency-driven** Transition country: from efficiency-driven to innovation-driven

올해로 11 년째 , 10th GEM annual report

3. GEM Research: Model and Report

• Revised GEM Conceptual Model– Integrate with model from Global Competitiveness Report

that identifies three phases of economic development.

– Consider three dynamic interactive components of entrepreneurship: attitudes, activity and aspirations

• Sketch the beginnings of a new Global Entrepreneurship Index – Work in progress by GEM researchers Zoltan Acs & Laszlo

Szerb, consistent with revised GEM model

Global Entrepreneurship Index (GEI)

• Acs and Szerb (2008) use 32 variables (19 from GEM) – To create 14 indicators forming

– Three sub indices that capture • Entrepreneurial activity • Entrepreneurial aspiration• Entrepreneurial attitudes

– One ‘super’ index called GEI• For all 64 countries that have participated in the

GEM project across the years 2003-2008• The index takes a value from 0 to 1

© 2009, by Niels Bosma and the Global Entrepreneurship Research Association

The GEI and per capita GDP

R2 = 0.65

0

0.1

0.2

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0.5

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0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

2007-08 GDP PPP Average

Glo

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© 2009, by Niels Bosma and the Global Entrepreneurship Research Association

Characteristics and Implications of the GEI

• Correlations also positive with – Doing Business Index (World Bank)– Economic Freedom Index (World Heritage Foundation)– Global Competitiveness Index (World Economic Forum)

• Relationships mostly non-linear• Support for revised GEM model identifying three

major phases of economic development• Results may lead to new insights of how policy can

affect productive entrepreneurship through the major phases of economic development

© 2009, Global Entrepreneurship Research Association

Relationships with GDP and GCI

R2 = 0.69

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6

Global Competitiveness Index 2008

Glo

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R2 = 0.65

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

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0.8

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

GDP per capita 2007- 2008

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Building from the Previous GEM

Conceptual Model

Social, Cultural,Political Context

Basic requirements

- Institutions- Infrastructure- Macroeconomic stability- Health and primary

education

Efficiency enhancers

- Higher education & training

- Goods market efficiency- Labor market efficiency- Financial market

sophistication- Technological readiness- Market size

Entrepreneurial Framework Conditions

- Entrepreneurial finance- Gov. entrepreneurship

programs- Entrepreneurship education - R&D transfer- Commercial, legal

infrastructure for entrepreneurship

- Entry regulation

General National Framework Conditions

- Openness (External Trade)- Government (Extent, Role)- Financial Markets

(Efficiency)- Technology, R&D (Level,

Intensity)- Infrastructure (Physical)- Management (Skills)- Labor Markets (Flexible)- Institutions (Unbiased, Rule

of Law)National Economic Growth

(Jobs andTechnicalInnovation)

Innovation and sophistication factors

- Business sophistication- Innovation

The Revised GEM Conceptual Model

Social, Cultural,Political Context

Basic requirements

- Institutions- Infrastructure- Macroeconomic stability- Health and primary

education

New plants, firm growth

Established Firms(Primary Economy)

National Economic Growth

(Jobs andTechnicalInnovation)

Efficiency enhancers

- Higher education & training

- Goods market efficiency- Labor market efficiency- Financial market

sophistication- Technological readiness- Market size

Innovation and entrepreneurship

- Entrepreneurial finance- Gov. entrepreneurship

programs- Entrepreneurship

education - R&D transfer- Commercial, legal

infrastructure for entrepreneurship

- Entry regulation

Attitudes:Perceived opportunities Perceived capacity

Aspirations:GrowthInnovationSocial value creation

Activity:Early-stagePersistence Exits

Entrepreneurship

GEM Adult PopulationSurveys (APS)

GEM National ExpertSurveys (NES)

Institutions, Entrepreneurship, and Economic Development

• Institutions are critical determinants of economic behavior and they can impose direct and indirect effects on the supply and demand of entrepreneurs

• Nexus among entrepreneurship, economic development, and institutions requires critical inquiry– Also to understand why the relative contributions

of entrepreneurship can vary significantly across countries and regions

Entrepreneurial Activity

• GEM identifies different phases in the entrepreneurial process• Early-stage entrepreneurial activity (TEA) is the phase centred

around the birth of the firm; it includes the pre-startup phase.

Potential entrepreneur:knowledge and skills

Nascent entrepreneur:Involved in setting up a business

Owner-manager of a new business (up to 3.5 years old)

Owner-manager of an established business (more than 3.5 years old)

Early-stage Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA)

Conception Firm birth Persistence

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

GDP per Capita, in Purchasing Power Parities (PPP)

Pre

va

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te o

f e

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AO: Angola AR: ArgentinaBA: Bosnia & Herz. BE: BelgiumBO: Bolivia BR: Brazil CL: Chile CO: ColombiaDE: Germany DK: Denmark DO: Dominican Rep.EC: EcuadorEG: Egypt ES: Spain FI: Finland

FR: France GR: Greece HR: Croatia HU: Hungary IE: Ireland IL: Israel IN: India IR: Iran IS: Iceland IT: Italy JM: Jamaica JP: JapanKR: Korea Rep. LV: Latvia

MK: MacedoniaMX: MexicoNL: NetherlandsNO: NorwayPE: Peru RO: Romania RU Russia SI: Slovenia TR: Turkey UK: United Kingdom US: United States UY: Uruguay YU: Serbia ZA: South Africa

IN

BO

EG

BA

YU

EC

PE

CO

AO

DO

MK

JM AR

BR UY

MXCL

IR

ZA

RO

TR

RU

HR

LV HU

KR GR

SI

IT

FR

IL

JP

BE

DEDK

NL

ESFI

UK

IS

IE

US

NO

e.g. Early-stage Entrepreneurial Activity and the U-shape Relationship with Economic Development

Decrease in necessityentrepreneurship

Increase in opportunityentrepreneurship

© 2009, by Niels Bosma and the Global Entrepreneurship Research Association

Early-Stage Entrepreneurial Activity 2001-2008

Despite drop in perceptions no drop in early-stage entrepreneurial activity

Concluding • GEM: entrepreneurial attitudes, activity, aspirations• Individual level: adult population survey (APS)

– Individual approach enables to explore types and phases of entrepreneurship

• Expert surveys (NES) provide useful additional information on the conditions of entrepreneurship

• Simple and transparent ‘indices’ (prevalence rates)– Research methodology applicable to regions & cities– General global entrepreneurship index can be derived by

combining several GEM indices with indices on institutional quality

GEM Concluding

“Entrepreneurs Defy Negative Sentiment as Global Crisis Grows”

Entrepreneurs may change economic landscape in times of recession

Exciting times for entrepreneurship research…

…how does the recession impact the GEM indices and the newly developed GEI?

For sure 2009 will be an interesting year for GEM!

Special Research Topics• Entrepreneurship Education and Training (2008)

• Social Entrepreneurship (2009)

• Entrepreneurial Network

• Innovation Confidence

• Global Entrepreneurship Index (GEI)

• Comparison with other Index

Appendix: GEM Entrepreneurship ‘Indices’• Three components

– Attitudes & Perceptions– Activity

• Different phases• Characteristics (demographics, sector structure, motivations,

…)– Aspirations

• Growth expectation• Innovation• Technology• International orientation

• Economic crisis has already influenced attitudes and may especially impact characteristics and aspirations

© 2009, by Niels Bosma and the Global Entrepreneurship Research Association

Global Entrepreneurship Index (GEI)

• Acs and Szerb (2008) use 32 variables (19 from GEM) – To create 14 indicators forming

– Three sub indices that capture entrepreneurial attitudes, activity and aspirations

– One ‘super’ index called GEI• For all 64 countries that have participated in the

GEM project across the years 2003-2008• The index takes a value from 0 to 1• More relevant aspects, more complexity, less

transparency

© 2009, by Niels Bosma and the Global Entrepreneurship Research Association

Appendix: Entrepreneurial Attitudes

• Perceived opportunities to start a business– If respondent perceives good opportunities:– Would fear of failure prevent to start business?

• Perceived capabilities to start a business• Intentions: expects to start business in next 3

years• National attitudes perceived by respondent

– Entrepreneurship considered as desirable career choice

– Lots of media attention for entrepreneurship

© 2009, by Niels Bosma and the Global Entrepreneurship Research Association

Entrepreneurial Aspirations

• ‘High impact’ types of entrepreneurship– Growth expectation: expect 20+ jobs five years from now– Innovation orientation: combination of new product and

new market– New technology: active in technology sector (OECD

classification)

• These types are quite rare• Need larger sample size to be equally precise in

estimates• The GEM 2008 report required minimum 6,000

respondents between 18-64 years, in data merged over 2002-2008.

• Acs, Z.J. and L. Szerb (2008). Gearing up to Measure Entrepreneurship in a Global Economy. Mimeo, Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Pecs, Hungary.

 •  Bygrave, W.D., with M. Quill (2007). Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Financing Report.

London: London Business School and Babson Park, MA: Babson College.

•  Reynolds, P.D., N.S. Bosma, E. Autio, S. Hunt, N. De Bono, I. Servais, P. Lopez-Garcia and N. Chin (2005). "Global Entrepreneurship Monitor: Data Collection Design and Implementation, 1998-2003," Small Business Economics, 24(3), 205-231.  

• Niels Bosma. Zoltan Acts, Erkko Autio, Alicia Coduras, Jonathan Levie (2008), Global   Entrepreneurship Monitor, 2008 Executive Report, GERA.

• BCERC(2009), GEM related Presentations, Babson College, MA: Wellesley.

• http://www.gemconsortium.org• http://www3.babson.edu/ESHIP/research-publications/gem.cfm • http://www.gemskorea.org

REFERENCE