100514 waiting for the water to come[1] - india, south asia · dr. fabian scholtes, zef dr....
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Dr. Fabian Scholtes, ZEFDr. Anna-Katharina Hornidge (Case study Indonesia), ZEF
EDITOR:CARE DEUTSCHLAND-LUXEMBURG, CENTER FOR DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH (ZEF) 2009
Foreword
I. Introduction: climate change and poverty reduction are inseparable II. Climate change
III. What climate change impacts are anticipated in future?
IV. Climate change and poverty reduction
V. Poverty reduction and strategies to secure livelihoods: case studies and lessons learned
VI. Case study West Timor, Indonesia
VII. Recommendations: poverty reduction in times of climate change
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RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ORGANISATIONS ON POVERTY REDUCTION
THE POOR ARE PARTICULARLY AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE AND VULNERABLE TO ITS IMPACTS
I. Climate change and poverty reduction are inseparable
II. Climate changeCONSEQUENCES AND PROJECTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
II.1.CLIMATIC EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING
II.2 PHYSICAL EFFECTS BEYOND CLIMATE CHANGE
BOX 1: CASCADE EFFECTS: A DAM BURST SCENARIO
II.3 CONSEQUENCES AND EXTREME EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: FEEDBACK AND TIPPING ELEMENTS
II.4 ECONOMIC AND HEALTH IMPACTS
Changes in agricultural production potential (2080s, in % of the potential of 2000)
III. What climate change impacts are anticipated in future?
III.1 GLOBAL PROJECTIONS: IMPACTS
IV.1 CLIMATE CHANGE, POVERTY AND POVERTY REDUCTION: HOW ARE THEY RELATED?
IV. Climate change and poverty reduction
Food
Water
Ecosystems
Extreme weather conditions
Risk of rapid climate change and large-scale irreversible effects
Final temperature levels (compared to preindustrial levels0° C 1° C 2° C 3° C 4° C 5° C
Disappearance of small glaciers worldwide – potentialthreat to water supply in many areas
Considerable changes in water availability
Over 30% increase on flowing away of surface water in the Mediterranean region and in southern Africa
Rising sea levels threaten large cities such as London, Shanghai,New York, Tokyo or Hong Kong
Coral reef ecosystems extensively damaged; damage finally irreversible
Possible start of breakdown of parts of or all the Amazon rain forest
Large proportion of ecosystems which cannot preserve their present form
Many species threatened with extinction
Increasing intensity of storms, forest fires, flooding and heatwaves
Slight increase in hurricane intensity causes twice as much damage in dollars in the USA
Danger of weakening of natural carbon dioxide sinks and the Atlantic thermohaline circulation; possible increase in release of natural methane
Start of irreversible melting of Greenland icecap
Increased risk of abrupt, large-scale climate shifts (e.g. collapse of Atlantic thermohaline circulation or western Antarctic icesheet)
Severe effects in the Sahel zone
Increasing harvests in many developed regions due to CO2 fertilizer effect
Decline of harvests in many developed regions despite CO2 fertilizer effect
Decreasing harvests in many developing regions
Rising number of people threatened by hunger. Biggest increase in Africa and West Asia
Severe decline of harvests in whole regions (e.g. up to one third of Africa)
BOX 2: MI BOSQUE. CLIMATE PROTECTION = POVERTY REDUCTIONG
IV.2 ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
IV.3 SUPPORTING RESILIENCE
IV.4 CRITERIA FOR SUCCESSFUL ADAPTATION MEASURES
1 2 3 4
IV.5 MEASURES
CRITERION DESCRIPTION
EFFECTIVE-NESS
FLEXIBILITY
FAIRNESS
EFFICIENCY
SUSTAINA-BILITY
PROTECTION AND MAINTENANCE OF LIVELIHOODS SUPPORTING LIVELIHOODS
V. Poverty reduction and strate-gies to secure livelihoods: case studies and lessons learned
V.1 SMALLHOLDER FARMERS IN TANZANIA: SPECIAL-ISING AND REDUCING DEPENDENCE ON AGRICULTURE
V.2 MICROINSURANCE IN INDIA: THE POOR PROTECT THEMSELVES AGAINST RISKS
BOX 3: MICROINSURANCES AND WEATHER-RELATED DISASTERS: CARE INDIA AND BAJAJ ALLIANCE
VI. Case study West Timor, Indonesia
VI.1 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN (EAST) INDONESIA
VI.2 TOINEKE, WEST TIMOR: ECONOMY AND SOCIETY
GENERAL DATA ON WEST TIMOR, INDONESIA
VI.3 PERCEPTIBLE LOCAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
CASE STUDY: IBU YANSE TON
VI.4 COPING AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
Preventive measures to avert the impacts of climate change
CASE STUDY: PAK AUGUSTINUS LEBISA UND IBU NAEMA BANOET
Short-term reactive coping strategies
Future oriented coping strategies
Long-term adaptation strategies
CASE STUDY: IBU YANSE LAKABU
CASE STUDY: PAK YANDRI A. NENO UND IBU ANTONIA MISA
VI.5 TOINEKE: AN EXAMPLE OF LIFE IN POVERTY IN CONDITIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
VII. Recommendations: poverty reduction in times of climate change
Bibliography
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CONTACT
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Main officeDreizehnmorgenweg 6, 53175 BonnPhone: (+49) 228 97563-0, Fax: -51E-mail: info@care.deInternet: www.care.de
ZEF
Center for Development Research (ZEF)Walter-Flex-Straße 353113 BonnPhone: (+49) 228 – 73 -1846, Fax: -89E-mail: zef@uni-bonn.deInternet: www.zef.de
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