1 of 18 - agrener 2006 / curso biocombustíveis líquidos, june 8, 2006, campinas, sp university of...
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1 of 18 - AGRENER 2006 / Curso Biocombustíveis Líquidos, June 8, 2006, Campinas, SP
University of Zagreb University of Zagreb Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval ArchitectureFaculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture
University of Zagreb University of Zagreb Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval ArchitectureFaculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture
BioethanolBioethanol in Europein Europe
Policy and marketsPolicy and markets
Neven DuićNeven DuićUniversity in Zagreb
Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval ArchitectureDepartment of Energy, Power Engineering and Ecology
Neven.Duic@fsb.hr
2 of 18 - AGRENER 2006 / Curso Biocombustíveis Líquidos, June 8, 2006, Campinas, SP
Acquis CommunautaireAcquis CommunautaireAcquis CommunautaireAcquis Communautaire
• Green Paper “Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply” - 20% alternative fuels in road transport by 2020.
• Kyoto Protocol – GHG emission reduction by 8% by 2010 relative to 1990
• White Paper on Renewable energy sources –12% RES in TPES by 2010.
RES-H: Current evolution
Biofuels5.75%
RES-E: 22.1%
10%
3 of 18 - AGRENER 2006 / Curso Biocombustíveis Líquidos, June 8, 2006, Campinas, SP
Acquis CommunautaireAcquis CommunautaireAcquis CommunautaireAcquis Communautaire
• White paper “European transport policy for 2010” (2001)– forecasts CO2 emission increase due to
transport at 50% 1990-2010, mainly due to road transport (84%)
– high dependence on oil (98%) reduced by alternative fuels, as biofuels
– import substitution, agriculture diversification from food to energy, GHG emission reduction
– tax reduction and crop subsidies for biofuels
4 of 18 - AGRENER 2006 / Curso Biocombustíveis Líquidos, June 8, 2006, Campinas, SP
Acquis CommunautaireAcquis CommunautaireAcquis CommunautaireAcquis Communautaire
• Directive 2003/17/EC amending Directive 98/70/EC relating to the quality of petrol and diesel – up to 5% (v/v) ethanol in petrol– coming Directive revision - Spain and Sweden
propose increase to 10% (24.6.2005)• Biofuels Directive 2003/30/EC
– Indicative targets, 2% by 2005 (0.6% 2003, 0.8% 2004, at best 1.4% 2005), 5,75% by 2010
– bioethanol – up to 5%, EN 228, volatility problems in summer, SE
– E85 – SE, UK– bio-ETBE (47% biofuel) – FR, ES
5 of 18 - AGRENER 2006 / Curso Biocombustíveis Líquidos, June 8, 2006, Campinas, SP
Acquis CommunautaireAcquis CommunautaireAcquis CommunautaireAcquis Communautaire
• Biomass Action Plan, Dec. 2005– issues:
• national targets for the market share• biofuels obligations (FR, AT, 2006: SI, 2007: CZ,
NL, soon: UK, DE)• certificates of sustainability (non-discriminatory to
imports)• public procurement of clean vehicles• balanced approach (imports/production, currently
10%/90%)• ethanol for Diesel engines
6 of 18 - AGRENER 2006 / Curso Biocombustíveis Líquidos, June 8, 2006, Campinas, SP
Acquis CommunautaireAcquis CommunautaireAcquis CommunautaireAcquis Communautaire
• Biomass Action Plan, EU25– biomass production potential and
demand
7 of 18 - AGRENER 2006 / Curso Biocombustíveis Líquidos, June 8, 2006, Campinas, SP
Acquis CommunautaireAcquis CommunautaireAcquis CommunautaireAcquis Communautaire
• Biomass Action Plan, EU25, imports– duty free: ACP, LDC, BO, CO, CR, EC, GT,
HN, PA, PE, SV, VE, GE, LK, MN + AC, WBC, EEA
– reduced duty (15%)– duty
• €19.2/hl on undenatured alcohol• €10.2/hl on denatured alcohol.
8 of 18 - AGRENER 2006 / Curso Biocombustíveis Líquidos, June 8, 2006, Campinas, SP
Acquis CommunautaireAcquis CommunautaireAcquis CommunautaireAcquis Communautaire
• Biomass Action Plan, balanced approach– price control mechanism– majority of the market for bioethanol
would remain domestic– biofuels instead of sugar for preferring LDC – no deforestation and habitat destruction –
certificates for sustainable production– EU – Mercosur negotiations– Doha round of WTO
9 of 18 - AGRENER 2006 / Curso Biocombustíveis Líquidos, June 8, 2006, Campinas, SP
Europe – bioethanol productionEurope – bioethanol productionEurope – bioethanol productionEurope – bioethanol production
• EU strategy for biofuels, Feb. 2006 • EU bioethanol production (t)
10 of 18 - AGRENER 2006 / Curso Biocombustíveis Líquidos, June 8, 2006, Campinas, SP
Europe – bioethanol productionEurope – bioethanol productionEurope – bioethanol productionEurope – bioethanol production
• Biofuels in Sweden (80% bioethanol imported)
11 of 18 - AGRENER 2006 / Curso Biocombustíveis Líquidos, June 8, 2006, Campinas, SP
Europe – road transport fuel Europe – road transport fuel marketmarketEurope – road transport fuel Europe – road transport fuel marketmarket
• Road transport fuel demand, ktoe
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
40000019
93
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
Tra
ns
po
rt f
ue
l, k
toe
NorwayIcelandTurkeyRomaniaCroatiaBulgariaUnited KingdomSwedenFinlandSlovakiaSloveniaPortugalPolandAustriaNetherlandsMaltaHungaryLuxembourgLithuaniaLatviaCyprusItalyIrelandFranceSpainGreeceEstoniaGermanyDenmarkCzech RepublicBelgium
DE
ESFR
IT
UK
12 of 18 - AGRENER 2006 / Curso Biocombustíveis Líquidos, June 8, 2006, Campinas, SP
Europe – biofuels Europe – biofuels marketmarketEurope – biofuels Europe – biofuels marketmarket
• Biofuels market, ktoe
0
5000
10000
15000
2000019
93
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
Bio
fuel
s d
eman
d, k
toe
NorwayIcelandTurkeyRomaniaCroatiaBulgariaUnited KingdomSwedenFinlandSlovakiaSloveniaPortugalPolandAustriaNetherlandsMaltaHungaryLuxembourgLithuaniaLatviaCyprusItalyIrelandFranceSpainGreeceEstoniaGermanyDenmarkCzech RepublicBelgium
DE
ES
FR
IT
UK
1 928 750 tonsproduced
2 424 440 tonsproduced
13 of 18 - AGRENER 2006 / Curso Biocombustíveis Líquidos, June 8, 2006, Campinas, SP
Europe – transport fuels Europe – transport fuels marketmarketEurope – transport fuels Europe – transport fuels marketmarket
• Gasoline in total road transport fuel demand, ktoe
< 30%
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
> 60%
14 of 18 - AGRENER 2006 / Curso Biocombustíveis Líquidos, June 8, 2006, Campinas, SP
Europe – bioethanol Europe – bioethanol marketmarketEurope – bioethanol Europe – bioethanol marketmarket
• Bioethanol market, ktoe, 1.9% road transport fuel market by 2010
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
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19
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19
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20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
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20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Year
Bio
eth
ano
l dem
and
, kto
e
NorwayIcelandTurkeyRomaniaCroatiaBulgariaUnited KingdomSwedenFinlandSlovakiaSloveniaPortugalPolandAustriaNetherlandsMaltaHungaryLuxembourgLithuaniaLatviaCyprusItalyIrelandFranceSpainGreeceEstoniaGermanyDenmarkCzech RepublicBelgium
DE
ESFR
IT
UK
SE
PL
NL
15 of 18 - AGRENER 2006 / Curso Biocombustíveis Líquidos, June 8, 2006, Campinas, SP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1200020
00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
Bio
eth
ano
l dem
and
, kt
NorwayIcelandTurkeyRomaniaCroatiaBulgariaUnited KingdomSwedenFinlandSlovakiaSloveniaPortugalPolandAustriaNetherlandsMaltaHungaryLuxembourgLithuaniaLatviaCyprusItalyIrelandFranceSpainGreeceEstoniaGermanyDenmarkCzech RepublicBelgium
DEES
FR
IT
UK
SE
PL
Europe – bioethanol Europe – bioethanol marketmarketEurope – bioethanol Europe – bioethanol marketmarket
• Bioethanol market, kt
16 of 18 - AGRENER 2006 / Curso Biocombustíveis Líquidos, June 8, 2006, Campinas, SP
Europe – production costsEurope – production costsEurope – production costsEurope – production costs
• Cost of bioethanol crops, €/GJ (Biomass availability in Europe)
> 20 €/GJ
5-20 €/GJ
< 5 €/GJ
17 of 18 - AGRENER 2006 / Curso Biocombustíveis Líquidos, June 8, 2006, Campinas, SP
UK – bioethanol cost of supplyUK – bioethanol cost of supply UK – bioethanol cost of supplyUK – bioethanol cost of supply
• Resource costs (costs before taxation delivered to the car at a UK filling station), £/GJ, 2020
http://www.rmd.dft.gov.uk/project.asp?intProjectID=11724AEAT/ENV/ED50273/R1. International Resource Costs of Biodiesel and BioethanolAEA Technology Environment
18 of 18 - AGRENER 2006 / Curso Biocombustíveis Líquidos, June 8, 2006, Campinas, SP
Bioetanol u pravnoj regulativi EU i RHBioetanol u pravnoj regulativi EU i RHBioetanol u pravnoj regulativi EU i RHBioetanol u pravnoj regulativi EU i RH
Thank you for your attentionNeven.Duic@fsb.hr
http://powerlab.fsb.hr/neven
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