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Green grid reliability requires !exible resource capabilitiesTo reliably operate in these conditions, the ISO requires !exible resources de"ned by their operating capabilities. These characteristics include the ability to perform the following functions: sustain upward or downward ramp; respond for a de"ned period of time; change ramp directions quickly; store energy or modify use; react quickly and meet expected operating levels; start with short notice from a zero or low-electricity operating level; start and stop multiple times per day; and accurately forecast operating capability.

Reliability requires balancing supply and demandThe net load curves represent the variable portion that ISO must meet in real time. To maintain reliability the ISO must continuously match the demand for electricity with supply on a second-by-second basis. Historically, the ISO directed conventional, controllable power plant units to move up or down with the instantaneous or variable demand. With the growing penetration of renewables on the grid, there are higher levels of non-controllable, variable generation resources. Because of that, the ISO must direct controllable resources to match both variable demand and variable supply. The net load curves best illustrate this variability. The net load is calculated by taking the forecasted load and subtracting the forecasted electricity production from variable generation resources, wind and solar. These curves capture the forecast variability. The daily net load curves capture one aspect of forecasted variability. There will also be variability intra-hour and day-to-day that must be managed. The ISO created curves for every day of the year from 2012 to 2020 to illustrate how the net load following need varies with changing grid conditions.

Ramping !exibilityThe ISO needs a resource mix that can react quickly to adjust electricity production to meet the sharp changes in electricity net demand. Figure 1 shows a net load curve for the January 11 study day for years 2012 through 2020. This curve shows the megawatt (MW) amounts the ISO must follow on the y axis over the different hours of the day shown on the x axis. Four distinct ramp periods emerge.

34,000

32,000

30,000

28,000

26,000

24,000

22,000

20,000

18,000

awatts

12am 3am 46am 79am 1012pm 13pm 6pm 9pm

Net load - January 11

2012(actual)

20152016

20192018

Figure 1

www.caiso.com | 250 Outcropping Way, Folsom, CA 95630 | 916.351.4400

The "rst ramp of 8,000 MW in the upward direction (duck’s tail) occurs in the morning starting around 4:00 a.m. as people get up and go about their daily routine. The second, in the downward direction, occurs after the sun comes up around 7:00 a.m. when on-line conventional generation is replaced by supply from solar generation resources (producing the belly of the duck). As the sun sets starting around 4:00 p.m., and solar generation ends, the ISO must dispatch resources that can meet the third and most signi"cant daily ramp (the arch of the duck’s neck). Immediately following this steep 11,000 MW ramp up, as demand on the system deceases into the evening hours, the ISO must reduce or shut down that generation to meet the "nal downward ramp.

Flexible resources neededTo ensure reliability under changing grid conditions, the ISO needs resources with ramping !exibility and the ability to start and stop multiple times per day. To ensure supply and demand match at all times, controllable resources will need the !exibility to change output levels and start and stop as dictated by real-time grid conditions. Grid ramping conditions will vary through the year. The net load curve or duck chart in Figure 2 illustrates the steepening ramps expected during the spring. The duck chart shows the system requirement to supply an additional 13,000 MW, all within approximately three hours, to replace the electricity lost by solar power as the sun sets.

Overgeneration mitigationOvergeneration happens when more electricity is supplied than is needed to satisfy real-time electricity requirements. The ISO experiences overgeneration in two main operating conditions. The "rst occurs as the ISO prepares to meet the upcoming upward ramps that occur in the morning and in the late afternoon. The existing !eet includes many long-start resources that need time to come on line before they can support upcoming ramps. Therefore, they must produce at some minimum power output levels in times when this electricity is not needed. The second occurs when output from any non-dispatchable/must-take resource further increases supply in times of low electricity need, typically in the nighttime hours. Historically, this condition was most likely to occur in the early morning hours when low demand combines with electricity and generation brought on line to prepare for the morning ramp. The duck curve in Figure 2 shows that overgeneration is expected to occur during the middle of the day as well.

28,000

26,000

24,000

22,000

20,000

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

awatts

12am 3am 4 5 6am 7 8 9am 10 11 12pm 13 14 3pm 16 17 6pm 19 20 9pm 22 23

Net load - March 31

2013 (actual)

20162015

2012(actual)

20192018

Figure 2: The duck curve shows steep ramping needs and overgeneration risk

ramp need~13,000 MW in three hours

overgeneration risk

FF-DuckChart-spread.indd 2 10/18/2013 4:18:32 PM

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Green grid reliability requires !exible resource capabilitiesTo reliably operate in these conditions, the ISO requires !exible resources de"ned by their operating capabilities. These characteristics include the ability to perform the following functions: sustain upward or downward ramp; respond for a de"ned period of time; change ramp directions quickly; store energy or modify use; react quickly and meet expected operating levels; start with short notice from a zero or low-electricity operating level; start and stop multiple times per day; and accurately forecast operating capability.

Reliability requires balancing supply and demandThe net load curves represent the variable portion that ISO must meet in real time. To maintain reliability the ISO must continuously match the demand for electricity with supply on a second-by-second basis. Historically, the ISO directed conventional, controllable power plant units to move up or down with the instantaneous or variable demand. With the growing penetration of renewables on the grid, there are higher levels of non-controllable, variable generation resources. Because of that, the ISO must direct controllable resources to match both variable demand and variable supply. The net load curves best illustrate this variability. The net load is calculated by taking the forecasted load and subtracting the forecasted electricity production from variable generation resources, wind and solar. These curves capture the forecast variability. The daily net load curves capture one aspect of forecasted variability. There will also be variability intra-hour and day-to-day that must be managed. The ISO created curves for every day of the year from 2012 to 2020 to illustrate how the net load following need varies with changing grid conditions.

Ramping !exibilityThe ISO needs a resource mix that can react quickly to adjust electricity production to meet the sharp changes in electricity net demand. Figure 1 shows a net load curve for the January 11 study day for years 2012 through 2020. This curve shows the megawatt (MW) amounts the ISO must follow on the y axis over the different hours of the day shown on the x axis. Four distinct ramp periods emerge.

34,000

32,000

30,000

28,000

26,000

24,000

22,000

20,000

18,000

awatts

12am 3am 46am 79am 1012pm 13pm 6pm 9pm

Net load - January 11

2012(actual)

20152016

20192018

Figure 1

The "rst ramp of 8,000 MW in the upward direction (duck’s tail) occurs in the morning starting around 4:00 a.m. as people get up and go about their daily routine. The second, in the downward direction, occurs after the sun comes up around 7:00 a.m. when on-line conventional generation is replaced by supply from solar generation resources (producing the belly of the duck). As the sun sets starting around 4:00 p.m., and solar generation ends, the ISO must dispatch resources that can meet the third and most signi"cant daily ramp (the arch of the duck’s neck). Immediately following this steep 11,000 MW ramp up, as demand on the system deceases into the evening hours, the ISO must reduce or shut down that generation to meet the "nal downward ramp.

Flexible resources neededTo ensure reliability under changing grid conditions, the ISO needs resources with ramping !exibility and the ability to start and stop multiple times per day. To ensure supply and demand match at all times, controllable resources will need the !exibility to change output levels and start and stop as dictated by real-time grid conditions. Grid ramping conditions will vary through the year. The net load curve or duck chart in Figure 2 illustrates the steepening ramps expected during the spring. The duck chart shows the system requirement to supply an additional 13,000 MW, all within approximately three hours, to replace the electricity lost by solar power as the sun sets.

Overgeneration mitigationOvergeneration happens when more electricity is supplied than is needed to satisfy real-time electricity requirements. The ISO experiences overgeneration in two main operating conditions. The "rst occurs as the ISO prepares to meet the upcoming upward ramps that occur in the morning and in the late afternoon. The existing !eet includes many long-start resources that need time to come on line before they can support upcoming ramps. Therefore, they must produce at some minimum power output levels in times when this electricity is not needed. The second occurs when output from any non-dispatchable/must-take resource further increases supply in times of low electricity need, typically in the nighttime hours. Historically, this condition was most likely to occur in the early morning hours when low demand combines with electricity and generation brought on line to prepare for the morning ramp. The duck curve in Figure 2 shows that overgeneration is expected to occur during the middle of the day as well.

28,000

26,000

24,000

22,000

20,000

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

awatts

12am 3am 4 5 6am 7 8 9am 10 11 12pm 13 14 3pm 16 17 6pm 19 20 9pm 22 23

Net load - March 31

2013 (actual)

20162015

2012(actual)

20192018

Figure 2: The duck curve shows steep ramping needs and overgeneration risk

ramp need~13,000 MW in three hours

overgeneration risk

FF-DuckChart-spread.indd 2 10/18/2013 4:18:32 PM

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High Penetration

Feb 13-14, San Diego, CA

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%Solar Forum 2013

High Penetration

Feb 13-14, San Diego, CA 31

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70% of Peak Load 4% of Peak Load

Sample analysis results from DOE-funded VT/EPRI Hi-Pen Project

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%Solar Forum 2013

High Penetration

Feb 13-14, San Diego, CA 32

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5000 cases shown Each point = highest primary voltage

ANSI voltage limit

Increasing penetration (kW)

Minimum Hosting Capacity Maximum Hosting Capacity

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Total PV: 540 kW

Total PV: 1173 kW

Voltage violation

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!"$ Peak MVA (winter)

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!"& Overhead Miles (3-phase) !"' Underground Miles (3-phase) !"( Underground Miles (1,2-phase)

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!"#, Commercial Customers !"## Industrial Customers !"#$ Irrigation (Agricultural) Customers

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12 14 16 18 20 22

Hour (Ending)

Normal Load

Capacity Value of PV: drops with high PV

But with Storage! Can better align to peak

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 39

Normal peak at ~4-5 pm At 10% PV, peak is shifted to 8-9 pm. PV provides no further peak capacity benefits

At this point PV cannot reduce the need for generation capacity

Source: Denholm, NREL

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Thanks!

0(#1(2#$/3( %&(/(45&/6%7(8#7/$(9:$%,5( · figure 2: the duck curve shows steep ramping...

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