® the new craft of intelligence: how state should lead robert david steele a nations best defense...
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®
The New Craft of Intelligence:How “State” Should Lead
Robert David Steele<bear@oss.net>
A Nation’s best defense is an educated citizenry. Thomas Jefferson
®
9-11: Systemic Failure
®
9-11 Commission
• Let’s forget the past. It is what it was.
• Let’s focus on the future. We can do better, starting now.
• What matters most is that we change our mind-set about who does what,and why. That is my focus.
®
World War III Players
H o m o S ap ie ns vs. B ac te ria G o ve rn m e nts vs. G a n gs C itize ns vs . C o rp ora tio ns
E d uca tio n vs . Ca tas trop heBacteria
Nation-States
Gangs
Private Sector
Citizens
Mother EarthWater-Air-Green
®
The National Budget:Truth-Teller About Our Priorities
Too much of:• Military heavy metal
• Technical collection
Not enough of:• Humans on ground
• Human expert analysis
• Technical processing
• State & local intelligence
• Public health, water, etc.
0
5 0
1 0 0
1 5 0
2 0 0
2 5 0
3 0 0
3 5 0
U S A A l l i e s R u s s i a C h i n a R o g u e s
M i l i t a r y D i p l o m a c y H o m e F r o n t
The real budget is the real policy.
Citizens must vote and provide constant oversight if the taxpayer
dollar is to be spent wisely.
®
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman
Conflict Facts for 200223 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC
Pol Terror Level 3Imprisonment, executions
Pol Terror Level 4Large numbers, torture
Pol Terror Level 5Entire public, no limits
®
Ethnic Fault Lines 200018 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today
Source: Dr. Greg Stanton
®
Water & War
Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53
Hyper-Arid
Sub-Humid
Arid
Semi-Arid
Water Pollution
1
2
34
5
6
®
Global Threats to Local Survival
*State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002
Complex Emergencies32 Countries
Refugees/Displaced66 Countries
Food Security33 Countries
Child Soldiers41 Countries
Modern Plagues*59 Countries & Rising
Water Scarcity &Contaminated Water**Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today**
Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution**
Corruption Common80 Countries
Censorship Very High62 Countries
10
®
PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURETunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers
ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTUREPower, Financial, Comms, Transportation
MILITARY ACHILLES’ HEELSOff-base power, down-links, antennas
ECONOMIC BLAHSNo Fly No Spend No Hire
DATACorruption
Public Health
Home Front Weaknesses
®
Four Different Threats to America:Require Four Different Security Approaches
PHYSICAL
STEALTH,
PRECISION
TARGETING
NATURAL
STEALTH,
RANDOM
TARGETING
CYBER -
STEALTH,
DATABASE
TARGETING
IDEO -
STEALTH,
MASS
TARGETING
GUERRILLAWAR
CULTURALWAR
HIGH TECH
BRUTES
(BIG WAR)
LOW TECH
BRUTES
(GANGS)
HIGH TECH
SEERS
(HOME)
LOW TECH
SEERS
(POOR)
MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS
POWER BASE
KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY
TERRORISMECONOMICWAR
®
1 0 %
5 0 %
2 5 %
1 5 %
S t a t e v s S t a t e
S t a t e v s N a t i o n
I n t e r - E t h n i c T r i b a l
G a n g W a r s , G e n o c i d e ,D e c o l o n i z a t i o n
Taxpayer Dollars Focused on Just 10% of the Threat
®We’re in a Six-Front 100-Year War of Our Own Making.
I am worried that America may lose the moral high ground.
®
Modern Presidential LeadershipPresidentCongress Judiciary
Chief of Staff
Director-General forNational Policy
Director-General forGlobal Strategy
Director-General forNational Intelligence
Director-General forNational Research
Director of ClassifiedIntelligence (DCI)
Chairman, NationalIntelligence Council
Director, Global Knowledge Foundation
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