® the future of intelligence: not federal, not secret, not expensive robert david steele fall 2004...
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The Future of Intelligence:Not Federal, Not Secret, Not Expensive
Robert David Steele<[email protected]>
Fall 2004
A Nation’s best defense is an educated citizenry. Thomas Jefferson
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9-11: Systemic Failure
THE ONLY THING THAT WORKED RIGHT ON 9-11 WAS INFORMED CITIZENS COUNTER-ATTACKING ON THEIR OWN.
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Conclusion First
• Local cops are key to spotting/neutralizing terrorism at home• Local observation & collection is one-half to two-third of the
preventive policing answer—bottom-up intelligence• Community Intelligence Centers, $30M per state per year at FOC,
are the hub of the “seven tribe” wheel• Open Source Agency, $1.5B at FOC, is the one “transformative”
tool we can deploy right now• Done right, we can redirect $30B/Year from secret collection to
state & local & regional intelligence, and $200B/Year from a largely useless heavy metal military to “soft power” capabilities.
• It’s not going to happen until Governors & Mayors raise hell.• Now, in the second term with a majority on the Hill, is our time.
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Seven Intelligence Tribes:The Way Ahead
Military
Law Enforcement
Business
Academic
National
NGO &Media
Religions& Clans
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State of the Tribes Today
0102030405060708090
100Objective
National
Military
Business
Academic
NGO-Media
Religious
• National 50%• Military 40%• Business 30%• Academic 30%• Law Enforcement 20%• NGO-Media 20%• Religious 20%
We have much to do.
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TIME IMPACT SHORT
TIME IMPACT
LONG
MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL
EQUITIES
SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION
EQUITIES
LEADERS DECIDE
PEOPLE DECIDE
TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL
SECRET SOURCES & METHODS
BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING
OPEN SOURCES & METHODS
OBVIOUS DETAIL
OBSCURE DETAIL
OLD
NEW
Bottom-Up and Peer-to-Peer
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Future is NOT Federal
TODAY (Per Year)
• $50B/Federal
TOMORROW (Per Year)• $5B/International• $5B/Regional• $20B/Federal• $5B/State• $5B/Local• $10B/Non-State Actors
Bottom Line: All levels of government have major role to play.
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Future is NOT Secret
• $50B for secrets, $250M for open sources, yet open sources answer 40% of the need.
• Imagine $5B for open sources displacing $30B for secrets, the balance then available for distribution.
• From terrorism to proliferation to illegal immigration to disease, 90% of what we need to know is not secret—we simply have to pay attention 24/7 in 29+ languages.
• We also have to share easily, without baloney.
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Future is NOT Expensive
• Leadership is free—you just do it.
• Sharing is free—you just do it.
• Thinking is free—you just do it.
• Keys to victory are:– Bottom-up police empowerment– Seven tribes harnessed at every level– Nail Congress now, before Christmas
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“Shockingly Dysfunctional”
• IC: $50B a year in waste & mismanagement
• Collect 10% of what we need to know
• Lose 80% of that in processing failures
• Analysts young, isolated from reality
• Management guilty of “bureaucratic treason”
• Political process extremely corrupt
• Public interest has been betrayed
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History of Failure
• 1947 Flawed by design—Pentagon opposed
• 1949 CIA, State, Pentagon fighting daily
• 1955 CI & Language bad, OSINT bad
• 1961 Failures in planning, coordination
• 1971 Grotesquely expensive, duplicative
• 1976 DCI needs budget power, OSINT bad
• 1992 DCI needs budget power, OSINT bad
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Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished
EnglishLanguage
ForeignLanguages*
*29 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.
NSA FBIS UN/STATE
Cascading Deficiencies:1) Don’t even try to access most information2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital3) Can’t translate most of what we collect
CIA/DO
NRO
Collection FailureBreakdown in Coverage and Language Access
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50% Less CostlyM
ore
Sat
isfy
ing
SIGINT
OSINT
0% 50%
HUMINT
IMINT
MASINT
STATE
Does Not Exist
Processing FailureBreakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination
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Analysis FailureBreakdown in Thinking & Mindset
• Analysts end up with 2% of the relevant data
• Analysts have no historical, cultural, or religious context
• Analysts can safely be ignored because their findings are secret
• Managers are weak
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Leadership Failure
• From Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney defeating intelligence reform in 1992, to a series of DCI’s refusing the implement the Aspin-Brown recommendations of 1996, our last fifteen years are marked by leadership that focuses more on protecting their budgets than protecting the Nation.
• Current IC leadership continues to resist
®Shit Flows Home…
23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman
GREEN SPOTS—WESTERN CIVILIZATION—UNDER SIEGE
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Global Threats to Local Survival
*State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002
Complex Emergencies32 Countries
Refugees/Displaced66 Countries
Food Security33 Countries
Child Soldiers41 Countries
Modern Plagues*59 Countries & Rising
Water Scarcity &Contaminated Water**Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today**
Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution**
Corruption Common80 Countries
Censorship Very High62 Countries
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Military Cannot Defend USA
• $500K = $500B cost• $1 = $1M cost to us• Terrorists can keep
this up forever– Exploding ships– Exploding tunnels– Exploding buildings– 50 caliber bullets into
• Power generators• Pipelines
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Four Different Threats to America:Require Four Different Security Approaches
PHYSICAL
STEALTH,
PRECISION
TARGETING
NATURAL
STEALTH,
RANDOM
TARGETING
CYBER -
STEALTH,
DATABASE
TARGETING
IDEO -
STEALTH,
MASS
TARGETING
GUERRILLAWAR
CULTURALWAR
HIGH TECH
BRUTES
(BIG WAR)
LOW TECH
BRUTES
(GANGS)
HIGH TECH
SEERS
(HOME)
LOW TECH
SEERS
(POOR)
MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS
POWER BASE
KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY
TERRORISMECONOMICWAR
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10%
50%
25%
15%
State vs State
State vs Nation
Inter-Ethnic Tribal
Gang Wars, Genocide,Decolonization
Taxpayer Dollars Focused on 10% of the Threat
®New Strategy: 1 + iii:
Need huge increase in “soft power” capabilities
50% 15% 20% 15%
250B vs. 500B 75B vs 20B 100B vs. 20B 75B vs. 36B
CINCWAR CINCSOLIC CINCPEACE CINCHOME
Strategic NBC Small Wars State/USIA Intelligence
Big War(s) Constabulary Peace Corps Border Patrol
Ground Truth Economic Aid Port Security
1 ii i
Electronic
Reserve
Reserve Environment
Public HealthReserve
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New Craft of Intelligence
I
Lessons of History
II
Global Coverage
III
National Intelligence
IV
Spies & Secrecy
China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.
Cost-Sharing with Others--Shared Early Warning
Narrowly focused!
Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
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Leveraging Best Practices:The Generic & The Esoteric
Generic to All Tribes• Open Source Collection
• Multi-media processing
• Analytic toolkits
• Analytic tradecraft
• Operations security
• Defensive counterintelligence
• Leadership skills
• Training & culture skills
Unique to Some Tribes• National clandestine & covert
collection, offensive CI
• Military targeting, mobility
• Police arrest & interrogation
• Business fiscal accountability
• Media attention-getting skills
• NGO humanitarian values
• Religious faith-based insights
• Ethnic blood-based insights
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Localizing Intelligence:Transfer resources & process
• Community Intelligence Centers
• Community Information Commons
• Community Open Decision Networks
• Digital Marshall Plan to every corner of globe– Empowers local population with global access– Makes local information digital at least cost– Converts “neighborhood watch” into global watch
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Globalizing Intelligence:A Geneva Convention for Information
• International convention on open source software and transparent stable Application Program Interfaces (API)
• XML Geo is fundamental--every datum in every medium, every language, every device
• ISO standards for generic intelligence collection, analysis, counterintelligence, covert action
• ISO standards for data security & privacy that empower software and marginalize hardware
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OPG VPN
Weekly Review
Expert Forum
Distance Learning
Virtual Library
Shared Calendar
Virtual Budget
Shared 24/7 Plot
Shared Rolodex
Local Hubs & World Brain:Web-Based Virtual Intelligence Teams
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Focus of Global Effort
Strategic Forecasting10% Need, 40% Cost
Primary Research & Experts on Demand20% Need, 30% Cost
Help Desk (Tell Me More Right Now)30% Need, 20% Cost
Daily/Weekly Reports40% Need, 10% Cost
Shared Among Tribes
Partial Sharing
Tribal Secret
Top Secret
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U.S. Intelligence ReformCan’t Have Smart Spies in a Dumb Nation
• XML Geo and XML Security Standards• National Analysis Agency (CIA Re-Focus)• National Processing Agency (NSA Re-Focus)• National Collection Agency (NRO Re-Focus)• New Clandestine Service Agency• New Homeland Counterintelligence Agency• New Community Intelligence Centers (Each State/City)• New Open Source Agency ($1.5B/Yr)
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Based on Appendix A of Steve Emerson, AMERICAN JIHAD::The Terrorists Living Among Us (Free Press, 2003), at Amazon.com. Created 8 Feb 03 by Robert David Steele, posted at www.oss.net.