© eircom the digital divide: transforming lives for the better or worse! fitce congress 2008...
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© eircom
The Digital Divide: transforming lives for the
better or worse!
FITCE Congress 2008Michael Browne (23rd September 2008)
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Contents
• Why broadband matters - National, Enterprise & Individual
• Broadband Availability, Adoption and Affordability
• Next Generation Broadband Applications
• Next Generation Access Network Roadblocks
• Next Generation Access Network Evolution
• Encouraging Wider Deployment of Next Generation Access Networks
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Why Broadband Matters!
National
• Positive impact on GNP • Early broadband access accelerates economic growth, • Where to locate a business
Enterprise
• Higher labour productivity. Increases profits. • Wider market.• Increases the number of business
Individual
• Easier to join the workforce.• Removes the geographic constraints from social interaction. • Supports any scale of social group • Improves educational performance • Enables more non-verbal communication
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Broadband Availability, Adoption and Affordability
Available 92%
DSL coverage in the EU-15 was 91.9% in Dec 2006
The average availability for rural areas was 76%.
Cable modem broadband availability was 37% in Dec 2006
Adoption 20%
Average take up rate is 20%, (Range from 35.6% to 7.6%).
Dominated by males, young, more educated and higher income
Affordable <1% of monthly GDP per capita
The lowest-priced broadband is less than 1% of monthly GDP per capita.
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Next Generation Broadband Applications
• E-health Applications
• Lifelong Learning
• General High Definition TV (HDTV) Next Generation Video
(3D) Remote Computing Home Surveillance 3D Gaming
Source: Analysys for Broadband Stakeholders Group
Maximum Downstream Requirements
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Next Generation Broadband Applications : E-Health Ageing Population – Rising Health Costs
85+
65-74yrs
15-44yrs
45-64yrs
75-84yrs
5-14yrs
0 - 4yrs
Relative Healthcare Costs per Capita (Mayhew, 2000)
1.0
0.4
0.53
1.70
0.82
3.2
5.52
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Next Generation Broadband Applications : Lifelong Learning
21st century technologist —
• expert in a range of subjects, versatile, experienced, and articulate.
• Broadband and distance education help to improve life-long learning
• Use of basic applications (word processing) are learned in school.
• General use of computers (surf the internet) is learned outside the school
setting.
Broadband access results in significant improvements in pupils’
performance
• 25% use internet for education (broadband)
• 14% use internet for education (non-broadband)
Minimise the Social Divide by smoothing out the Digital Divide.
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Next Generation Access Networks Roadblocks: Capital Cost and Take Rate
• Capital Cost
Fibre Network Layout and Capital Expenditure Source: OECD (2007)
FTTH Take-Up Rates Source: Yankee Group Research (2008)
Project Country Homes Passed Take up
Years since roll out
Orange France 146,000 ~ 5% 1 Pau BC France 43,000 15% 2 Verizon FiOS USA 10,000,000 23% 2 ViaEuropa Sweden 10,000 25% 1 Lyse Tele Norway 192,000 60% 4 MalarEnergi Sweden 37,000 75% 8
NTT Japan 42,630,000 21% 6
• Take Rate
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000
Next Generation Access Network Roadblocks: Relative Costs of Broadband Platform
UrbanRural
Population Density per km2
Rel
ativ
e C
ost
/Co
mp
lexi
ty
(%)
Satellite
ExistingWireless
PotentialWireless DSL
CableModems
OpticFibre
Suburban
0.1
Adapted from Gérald Chouinard - ITU News magazine http://www.iiasa.ac.at
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100 Mb/s 50Mb/s 15Mb/s 5Mb/s 1Mb/s 0.5Mb/s Population Density
FTTH
FTTCab
HFC Co-ax
Twisted Pair
Wireless
Satellite
Broadband Platform
Next Generation Access Network Evolution
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Next Generation Access Network Evolution
• Urban area: population density > 500/km²
• Suburban area: population density between 100/km² and 500/km²,
• Rural area: population density < 100/km²
TI's network evolution is estimated to result in
• 16% Fibre to the Home
• 49% Fibre to the Cabinet
• 35% Fibre to the Exchange
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Next Generation Access Network Evolution: Digital Slices
Laissez-faire approach to fixed network Unable to get broadband 1-5 Mb/s, 5-10Mb/s, up to 25Mbs up to 50Mb/s and up to 100Mb/s
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Recommendations: Encouraging Wider Deployment of Next Generation Access Networks (NGAN)
Individual• Focus on specific hard-to-reach groups (poor, limited education ,etc.) • Financial incentives/ Tax breaks to purchase a PC and broadband.• Offer public broadband access points
Businesses• Focus on SMEs and start-ups. (financial incentives, tax credits) • Creating business areas with very fast broadband access • Adapting laws to make teleworking more feasible.
Expected Results• Overcome the "pump head" resistance to NGANs. • Generate significant construction activity.• Reduce the risk associated with the high capital expenditure.
SMEs: tax relief €5,000, 100Mb/s connection Rural farm families: tax relief of €2,000, for a PC and 20Mb/s connection Elderly: €2,000 grant for an e-health solution,
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