© 2007 independent communications authority of south africa all rights reserved 1 “ competitive...
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© 2007 Independent Communications Authority of South AfricaAll Rights Reserved
1
““Competitive Platforms for the Delivery of Digital Competitive Platforms for the Delivery of Digital Content”Content”
EBU
21-22 June 2007, Geneva
Dr. Tracy Cohen, Councillor, ICASA
© 2007 Independent Communications Authority of South AfricaAll Rights Reserved
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Disclaimer
The views expressed in this presentation are not necessarily those of ICASA, its Council,
management or staff.
© 2007 Independent Communications Authority of South AfricaAll Rights Reserved
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The business case for mobile
Voice continues to be dominant in Africa
Segmented approach to the mobile business case• “Emerging markets” are not uniform markets
Africa can be split into 2 categories• Markets nearing maturity (Egypt, Morocco, South Africa)
Data becoming increasingly important for mature markets
Markets with growth potential (other African markets) are still based on voice
© 2007 Independent Communications Authority of South AfricaAll Rights Reserved
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Mobile data business model
Source: Olla, P. & Patel, N. 2002
© 2007 Independent Communications Authority of South AfricaAll Rights Reserved
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Mobile subscriber growth
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Declining ARPUs
2004 2005 2006
Nigeria DRC Tanzania Lesotho Mozambique South Africa
© 2007 Independent Communications Authority of South AfricaAll Rights Reserved
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Mobile data
Operators see data as a growth area– "Take advantage of opportunities within the value chain [such as] data
opportunities" (MTN)
"The alliance with Vodafone Group Plc is expected to provide further impetus to revenue growth from innovative products, which will also support the group's growth strategy for new technologies ..... where the focus remains on growing data revenues" (Vodacom)
Operators seeking new sources of revenue and enhanced user experience
Fixed –data Mobile broadband (data, gaming, entertainment…) Mobile TV (DVB-H) IPTV CAPEX to NGN Exploit success of pre-paid model
366%78%
© 2007 Independent Communications Authority of South AfricaAll Rights Reserved
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Data revenues - Vodacom & MTN
Dec 2006
Mar 2007
© 2007 Independent Communications Authority of South AfricaAll Rights Reserved
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The business case for broadband services
Tactic: Undercut fixed line
Fixed line
Fixed line
© 2007 Independent Communications Authority of South AfricaAll Rights Reserved
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The business case for mobile TV in SA
2m pay TV subscribers
10m TV sets
33m mobile phones
Declining ARPU
Increased delivery platforms
2010 World Cup Football
Maturing market
Success of prepaid model
Increased data spend
© 2007 Independent Communications Authority of South AfricaAll Rights Reserved
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The changing/cyclical nature of regulation
Noam suggests that all regulation will converge around a single platform – the Internet - changing the nature of all regulation to become, in essence, telecom regulation.
Eli M. Noam, “Why TV Regulation will become telecom regulation” OFCOM, http://www.ofcom.org.uk/research/commsdecade/
Media players
Regulators/ policy makers
New media
© 2007 Independent Communications Authority of South AfricaAll Rights Reserved
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SA market - vertical to horizontal
D ep t o f C om m u n ica tion s
M ob ile D a ta (1 )R ad io Tru n k in g (3 )
P ag in g (2 3 )
V A N S /IS P s1 2 0 +
P TNTran sn e t (ra il)E skom (e lec )
C e llu la r: G S MV od acom ; M TN ; C e ll-C
F ixedTe lkom S A
M u lt ip le tech n o log ies
G M P C S
U S A L> 5 %
G S M 1 8 0 03 G
S N OF ixed , fixed m ob ile
(n o t ce llu la r)Incl. T ransnet and Eskom
S en techM M an d C C
R eg u la to rICASA
M in is te r o f C om m u n ica tion s P P C C om m u n ica tion s
© 2007 Independent Communications Authority of South AfricaAll Rights Reserved
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Electronic Communications Act - licensing
Radio Frequency Spectrum
Broadcasting Services
Communication Services
Communication Network Services
Individual Class Exempt
Licensed
4 licensable activities or markets
Unlicensed
© 2007 Independent Communications Authority of South AfricaAll Rights Reserved
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Converged approach to licensing
Generic provisions of the Bill apply to all relevant activities
Standard licence conditions commonto Individual and Class licenses
Standard LicenceConditions common
to Individual Licenses
Special conditions
Undertakings
ExemptIndividual Class
© 2007 Independent Communications Authority of South AfricaAll Rights Reserved
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Conclusion
Legal and market convergence underway
Supplementary revenue through data and mobile broadcasting
NGN capex commitments confirm
User experience sought to be enhanced
Business case for mobile TV is untested
2010 world cup football – major driver of DVB-H in SA
Legal and regulatory framework not an impediment
Implications for competition (regulation)
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