amended 2019 irp - edocs.puc.state.or.us · amended 2019 irp jared hansen, resource planning leader...
TRANSCRIPT
Amended 2019 IRP
Jared Hansen, Resource Planning Leader
Tuesday, March 31st, 2020
Amended 2019 IRP IDAHOPOWERAn IDACORP Company
Mmr-
-A*
'V
<^ t TP
A! *
wm&
• VJjjCi 7
Li
m s,
>r
Jared Hansen, Resource Planning Leader
Tuesday, March 31st, 2020
Integrated Resource Planning
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 20382
-1
Integrated Resource Planning j/;>1
2,500
Hydroelectric
44.8%Natural Gas
11.4%2.200
1,900
S2CO
1,600
Coal1.300
16.3%1,000
700 TT
1983 1988 1993 1993 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038
OtherWA less Astaris Weather Adjusted Expected Case 70th Percentile 90th Percentile
Purchases
8.3%Long-Term Purchases
19.3%
019 8
2
Integrated Resource Planning
3
Integrated Resource Planning
t
iaaHP*'' c. '
- --
.m
<k>,11 „
**?>*jga?
swVi
-V': //w
a
- -
'
iMiia mi 3
Integrated Resource Planning
Cost
Risk
Environment
4
Integrated Resource Planning
Risk
<£>
<4?>Cost
Environment
Integrated Resource Planning
5
Integrated Resource Planning
m
iVv-S
- sSs
i >
^A'S v
s
5
Our Clean-Energy Goal
As Idaho Power continues serving customers and communities with reliable, affordable energy, we look to do so with a new and exciting goal:
Providing
6
We’re Well On Our Way2019 Energy Mix
Idaho Power sells the Renewable Energy Credits (REC) associated with our renewable energy purchases on Long-Term Purchases and a small portion of our hydro generation to offset power supply costs and keep customer prices as low as possible. The buyer of the REC claims the renewable attributes of that energy; therefore, Idaho Power does not represent that this resource mix represents the energy delivered to our customers.
About the sale of renewable energy credits:
7
We’re Well On Our Way2019 Energy Mix
National Average
8
- r - vfeTg?
We're Well On Our Way•y.
Br*
2019 Energy Mix
National Average
Hydroelectric
44.8%Natural Gas - Hydroelectric
^7%Natural Gas
37%11.4%
BigSfeNuclear
20%
Coal
16.3%
\ Non-Hydro
RenewablesCoal
24% Other10%1%
OtherPurchases
8.3%Long-Term Purchases
19.3%Data Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding 8
Resources
762 MW1773 MW 1118 MW
9
1284 MW
Resources
762 MW1773 MW 1118 MW
10
1284 MW
Jackpot Solar120 MW
Valmy Unit 1 127 MW
Resources – Demand-Side
Energy Efficiency234 aMW
Demand Response440 MW
11
Load and Resource Balance
1.0% Average-Energy
Growth
12
2,500
2,200
1,900
51.0%
Average-Energy
^ Growth
1,600
1,300
1,000
700
1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038
Weather Adjusted Expected Case
Figure 7.1 Average monthly load-growth forecast
WA less Astaris 70th Percentile 90th Percentile
12
1.2% Peak-Hour
Growth
13
5,100
4,700
4,300
3,900
3,500
S 3,1001.2%
Peak-Hour
Growth
5
2,700uA
2,300
1,900
1,500 1—r
1983 1 988 1 993 1 99 8 2 00 3 2 00 8 2 013 2 018 2 02 3 202 8 2 03 3 2038
50th Percentile
Figure 7.2 Peak-hour load-growth forecast (MW)
Actual less Astaris 90th PercentileActual 95th Percentile
13
Levelized Capacity Costs
14
Levelized Capacity CostsBoard man to Hemingway (350 MW) $5
Reciprocating Gas Engine (111.1 WW) S10
SCCT—Frame F Class (170 WW) $11
Reciprocating Gas Engine (55.5 MW) S11
Solar PV— Utility Scale 1-Axis Tracking (40 MW)
CCCT (1x1) F Class (300 MW)
$13
$13
Solar PV—Utility Scale 1-Axis Tracking Battery (50 MW)
Solai PV—Targeted Siting for Grid Benefit (0.5 MW)
Solar PV—Utility Scale 1 -Axis Tracking Battery (60 MW)
Solar PV—Utility Scale 1-Ax is Tracking Battery (70 MW)
$15
$16
$17
Storage—Pumped-Hydro (500 MW) $19
Storage—Li Battery 4 hour (5 MW)
Wind WY (100 MW)
$20
$20
Wild Common (1 00 MW) $21
Wind ID (100 MW) $22
Storage—Zn Battery 4 hour (5 MW) $31
Solar PV—Rooftop Commercial (.005 MW)
Sola rPV—Rooftop (.005 MW)
Biomass (35 MW)
$34
S44
Storage—Li Battery 8 hour (5 MW)
Small Modular Nuclear (60 MW)
Geothermal (30 MW)
$46
$56
S85
$0 $10 520 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90
$ per kW/Month
Cost of Capital Fixed O&M
Figure 7.5 Levelized capacity (fixed) costs in 2019 dollars14 14
Levelized Energy Costs
15
Boardman to Hemingway (350 MW) 33%
Levelized Energy CostsSolar PV—Utility Scale 1-Axis Tracking (40 MW) 26.0%
CCCT (1x1) F Class (300 MW) 60%
Solar PV—Targeted Siting for Grid Benefit (0.5 MW) 26%
Solar PV—Utility Scale 1 Axis Tracking Battery (50 MW)
Wind WY (100 MW)
22%
45%
Biomass (35 MW) 85.0%
Wind Common (1 00 MW) 35%
Wind ID (100 MW) 35%
Solar PV—Utility Scale 1-Axis Tracking Battery (60 MW)
Small Modular Nuclear (60 MW)
18%
90%
Solar PV—Rooftop Commercial (.005 MW) 21%
Geothe rmal (30 MW) 88%
Solar PV—Utility Scale 1-Axis Tracking Battery (70 MW) 15%
Reciprocating Gas Engine (111.1 MW) 15%
Reciprocating Gas Engine (55 5 MW) 15%
Storage—Pumped-Hydro (500 MW) 16%
Solar PV—Rooftop ( 005 MW) 21%
Storage—Li Battery 4 hour (5 MW) 11%
Storage—Li Battery 8 hour (5 MW) 23%
SCOT—Frame F Class (170 MW) 5%
Storage—Zn Battery 4 hour (5 MW) 11%
($25) $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250 $275 $300 $325 $350 $375 $400 $425
$ per MWh
Cost of Capital Non-Fuel O&M Fuel "Offsets Wholesale Energy %=Capacity Factor
Levelized cost of energy (at stated capacity factors) in 2023 dollars 15Figure 7.6
2019 Integrated Resource Plan
16
fS>
J
' *8\
2019 Integrated Resource Plani
<•
- *J&-•s
— — ^ —
Mr",ii 3
i
Demand
Battery Response Coal ExitGas Wind Solar
2019 -127
2020 -58
2021
2022 120 -1772,500
2023
20242,200
2025 -133
2026 -1801,900
2027
2028 -1741,600
2029 40 30
Optimized Resource
Expansion
2030 300 -1771,300
2031 5
2032 80 10 51,000
2033 80 20 5
2034 80 20 5
7002035 111 5
1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038
t2036 5
2037 320^WA less Astaris Weather Adjusted Expected Case 70th Percentile 90th Percentile
2038 300 440
fi,.
Nameplate Total
B2H (2026)
411 300 1,160 80 30 -1,026
500
P
16
Qualitative Risks
17
Qualitative Risks
R|SKahead
Uncertainty Analysis
18
_
4
Uncertainty Analysis$16 00
$14 00
/$1200
$1000
3CD
2 $8 00Z•y)
$6 00
>-
$4 00 /
/
$2 00
$0 00
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Figure 9.2 Natural gas sampling (Nominal $/MMBtu) 18
Uncertainty Analysis
19
.
Uncertainty Analysisif.
X• Portfolio 1 • • • • • •• • • •
X• Portfolio 2 • * • • • • • • •
•X• Portfolio 3 • • • • • *•• • • • •
XPortfolio 4 • •• • • •• •
• Portfolio 5 • • • •
•X •"• Portfolio 6 9 • • • • • • • • • • •
•X• Portfolio 7 • • • •• • •• •• • • • • •
X*• Portfolio 8 • • • * • • • •• •
K • •••••« • • • • • •• Portfolio 9
X® •• • m• Portfolio 10
•X• Portfolio 11 • •
x - • • • • • • • M •• Portfolio 12
x • • • — • • •• Portfolio 13
x • • • •• • •• • • •• •• Portfolio 14
X • •Portfolio 15
• X • «•Portfolio 16
x• •• Portfolio 17
• «X
• • • • • •• Portfolio 18
• • • »• • • •• Portfolio 19
X*• • • •• •• •• • •• Portfolio 20
• • X * • *• Portfolio 21
• •• • • • •• Portfolio 22
• • • x *** * ••• • • • •• Portfolio 23
•• •• • • •< •••• Portfolio 24
$5,500,000 $6,000,000 $6,500,000 $7,000,000
NPV ($ x 1000)
$7,500,000 $8,000,000 $8,500,000
Portfolio stochastic analysis, total portfolio cost, NPV years 2019-2038 ($x 1,000)Figure 9.5 19
Portfolio Cost and Variance
20
Portfolio Cost and Variance$7,400,000
• Portfolio 24
• Portfolio 23$7,200,000
$7,000,000 • Portfolio/
• Portfolios
• Portfolio 10• Portfolio 20
Portfolio 19
Portfolios• Portfolio 4
~ $6,800,000
-X
l 'ortfolio 16>£ $6,600,000
a?
3Portfolio22
Portfolio 21Portfolio 15
e$6,400,000
* P°rlf*olio6" Portfolio 1
• Portfolios
O-Portfolio 13• • Porlfolio 17
$6,200,000• Portfolio 2
, »Portfolio 14
Porlfolio 1 8
_V
$6,000,000
$450,000 $650,000 $850,000 $1,060,000
Four-Scenarios NPV Variance ($ x 1,000)
$1,250,000 $1,450,000
20Figure 9.1 NPV cost versus cost variance
Manual Adjustments - Timing
21
Manual Adjustments - Timing
Table 9.4 Jim Bridger exit scenarios
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6
2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2024
2026 2026 2028 2026 2026 2026
2034 2028 2034 2028 2028 2028
2034 2034 2034 2030 2030 2030
P14 derived portfolios—PI 4(1), P14(2), P14 (3), P14 (4), P14 (5), P14 (6)
21
Amended 2019 IRP
22
_
'4
Amended 2019 IRPi/;
wV.
500
400
300
^ 200
£100
1 1 1 1cu
Iro
a 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 20380)
i1 I MilEg -100
-200
-300
-400
Solar Battery Demand and Response Coal ExitWind B2H Gas
22
Action Plan
23
WMJ£nZ2L4
Action Plan p**.
Table 10.3 Action Plan (2019-2026)
Tear Action
2019-2022 Plan and coordinate with PacifiCorp and regulators for early exits from Jim Bridge r units. Target dates
for early exits are one unit during 2022 and a second unit during 2026. Timing of exit from second unit
coincides with the need for a resource addition.
2019-2022 Incorporate solar hosting capacity into the customer-owned generation forecasts for the 2021 IRP.
Jackpot Solar PPA regulatory approval*—on-line December 2022
Exit Valmy Unit 1 by December 31 . 2019.*
2019-2021 Conduct ongoing B2H permitting activities. Negotiate and execute B2H partner
construction agreement(s).
2019-2026 Conduct preliminary' construction activities, acquire long-lead materials, and construct the
B2H project.
2019-2020 Monitor VER variability and system reliability needs, and study projected effects of additions of 120
MW of PV solar (Jackpot Solar) and early exit of Btidger units.
Exit Boardman December 31, 2020.
Bridget Unit 1 and Unit 2 Regional Haze Reassessment finalized.
Conduct a VER Integration Study.
2021-2022 Continue to evaluate and coordinate with PacifiCorp for timing of exih'closure of remaining Jim Bridger
units.
Subject to coordination with Pacif Corp, exit Jim Bridget unit (as yet undesignated; by
December 3f, 2022.
Jackpot Solar 120 MW on-line December 2022.
2023-2026 Procure or construct resources resulting from RFP (if needed).
Exit Valmy Unit 2 by December 31. 2025.
Subject to coordination with PacifiCorp. exit Jim Bridger unit (as yet undesignated) by December 31.
2026. Tinning of the exit from the second Jim Bridger unit is tied to the need for a resource
addition (B2H).
2019
2019
2020
2020
2020
2022
2022
2025
2026
23
Mitch ColburnEngineering & Construction Director
Boardman to Hemingway Transmission Line Project
. . J
d3i1'
>y H33
~
*J*B*
V.^' dt^.X "Stgs!. ^ MA
mY
€7/ r r
%'A'J
>S
mm
Boardman to Hemingway
Transmission Line Project Mitch Colburn
Engineering & Construction Director
B2H Overview
➢ 500 kV transmission line
➢ ~300 miles through Oregon and Idaho
➢ ~1,000 MW bi-directional capacity
➢ Proposed by Idaho Power, PacifiCorp, and Bonneville Power Administration
Detail Area 25
Need and Benefits
✓ Cost: serve customers cost-effectively
✓ Connectivity: move energy between Pacific Northwest and Mountain West
✓ Reliability: new infrastructure increases robustness of the grid.
✓ Flexibility: able to accommodate any resources type and future changes in technology
✓ Environment: operating B2H is carbon neutral and provides ability to integrate and move renewable resources
Bliss Dam, Idaho 26
Project Updates
• All major federal permits secured– BLM Record of Decision (ROD) – Nov 2017
– Forest Service ROD – Nov 2018
– Navy ROD – Sept 2019
• Oregon permitting process:– ODOE issues Draft Proposed Order – May 2019
– 20,000 page application
• Preliminary construction activities commenced in 2018 and are ongoing
UPDATES!
27
Costs
Total cost to-date ~$106 million
Total cost estimate is $1 to 1.2 billion, includes:
• Permitting
• Engineering
• Construction
• Substations
• 20% contingency
28
B2H Upcoming Activities
• ODOE Proposed Order
• Preliminary construction activities
• Construction agreement
29
Supplemental Slides
30
Supplemental Slides IDAHOPOWERAn IDACORP Company
-
^5
jr. j
I
.3—
- --Wm
_ * .7 */ ?I
s*-?*-
r. <. -
-•9- **.
W ^ --T f
' - £
r^&- ~ "v
Inputs Modified During Filing Suspension
1. REC Values for Jackpot Solar
2. Transmission Interconnection Costs for Jackpot Solar
3. Removal of Franklin Solar
4. Corrected Online Date for Jackpot Solar
5. Peak Capacity Credit for Solar Resources
6. B2H Transmission Revenue Credits
7. Discount Rate Modification
8. Natural Gas Pipeline and Capacity Considerations31
Preferred Portfolio Comparison
32
June 2019 Filing Amended Filing