Photo 25.51” x 10.31”

Position

x: 8.53”, y: .18”

Photo 14.2” x 10.31”

Position

x: 4.36”, y: .18”

Alto Mayo Protected

Forest

REDD Initiative

Peru

Fabiano Godoy

March- 2012

REDD initiative profile

Alto Mayo Protected Forest – Department San Martin –Peru

� National protected area with highest deforestation rate in Peru (0.34% yr-1)

� ~ 5000 families live within the AMPF

� AMPF size: 182,000 ha

� project start date: 2008

� main threat: forest conversion to coffee plantation

� co-benefit: provision of water supply

� strategy: capacity building and incentives

to improve coffee production through

conservation agreements

Historical

deforestationCO2 emission

reductions

Major Steps and Inputs – VM00151996

2001

2006

Carbon maptC ha-1

Spatial

boundaries

Drivers ofdeforestation

Defor rate

Ref area

Elevation

Dist to roads

Land change

modeling

Trans. Potent.

2020

Historical land cover and change

In-house processing

� Image acquisition - Landsat 5 & 7

1996-2001-2006

(path-row 8-64 and 9-64)

� Interpretation and classification

Ortho, cloud removal

Decision tree algorithm (See5-ERDAS)

Forest, non-forest, cloud and water

� Post-processing and map accuracy

MMU 2ha

Field visit – high resolution satellite images – aerial photos

accuracy 92% forest-non forest

Spatial Boundaries

� Spatial Boundaries

� Project Area� forested area inside AMPF

� 153, 929 ha

� Reference Region� similarity with project area

� same drivers & agents of

deforestation

� Leakage Belt

� mobility analysis

� MCE

� Fuzzy based on

hist deforestation

Carbon Pools

Carbon poolsIncluded / TBD /

ExcludedJustification / Explanation of choice

Above-ground tree includedRepresents the pool where the greatest carbon stock change will

occur.

Above-ground non-tree included

The baseline land use in the project area is conversion of forest

to perennial crops (coffee), therefore the carbon stock in this pool

is likely to be relatively large compared to the project scenario.

Below-ground includedRecommended by the methodology as it usually represents

between 15% and 30% of the above-ground biomass.

Dead wood excluded

Conservatively excluded (the carbon stock in this pool is not

expected to be higher in the baseline compared to the project

scenario).

Harvested wood products excluded

Under the baseline scenario, illegal selective logging occurs in

very small scale and, therefore, harvested wood products have

been considered insignificant.

Litter excludedNot to be measured according to the latest VCS AFOLU

Requirements (version 3.0).

Soil organic carbon excluded

The baseline land-use of the project area is conversion of forest

to perennial crop (coffee) followed by conversion to pasture. The

soil organic carbon is not to be measured in such cases

according to the latest VCS AFOLU Requirements (version 3.0).

Sources of GHG emissions

Sources Gas Included/ excluded Justification / Explanation of choice

Biomass

burning

CO2 Excluded counted as carbon stock change

CH4 Excluded

The major baseline activity is conversion of forest

to conventional coffee plantation using slash and

burn techniques. The project aims to reduce this

activity by providing technical assistance to

establish sustainable, shade-grown organic coffee

plantations and therefore, the non-CO2 emissions

related to biomass burning are conservatively

excluded.

N2O Excluded See above explanation.

Livestock

emissions

CO2 Excluded

Raising livestock is not a widespread baseline

activity and the AMCI project will not promote the

raising of livestock or result in an increase of this

activity compared to the baseline. Therefore,

livestock emissions are conservatively excluded.

CH4 Excluded See above explanation.

N2O Excluded See above explanation.

Drivers and Agents of Deforestation� Identify the main drivers of deforestation, the agents and the underlying causes

� compilation of relevant scientific publications + public consultation

� Drivers of deforestation

� conversion to coffee

plantation

� conversion to pastureland

� conversion to agriculture of

subsistence

� conversion to infrastructure

� clearance to illegal land trade

� illegal logging

Drivers and Agents of Deforestation

Drivers and Agents of Deforestation� Identify the main drivers of deforestation, the agents and the underlying causes

� Map the threat distribution

� Understand the deforestation dynamic and provide a comprehensive list of variables to

be used in the modeling of future deforestation

Past Future

Deforestation Rate� The major drive of deforestation in the project area is conversion to coffee plantation

� deforestation rate was model as function of coffee production over time.

� direct correlation between deforestation and coffee production in the past

� constant (increasing) coffee production (1996-2007)

� coffee production do not follow the price trends

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Coffee Price in Peru

y = 604,47x - 1.200.357,57R² = 0,86

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

1995 2000 2005 2010

Annual Coffee Production in Rioja + Moyobamba + Huallaga

(proportional to reference area)

AnnualCoffeeProduction

Linear(AnnualCoffeeProduction)

y = 0,1188x - 36,338R² = 0,9417

-

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000

Deforestation as function of Coffee Production (in Rioja, Moyobamba and Huallaga proportional to reference

area)

deforestation asfunction of coffeeproduction

Linear(deforestation asfunction of coffeeproduction)

1996-2001 & 2001-2006

Land Cover 1996 Land Cover 2001 Land Cover 2006

Elevation

Dist. Villages

Dist. Roads

Change 96-01

Modeling

Land Proj. 2006

Suitab. Map

Validation

Land Proj 2012

2020

2040

NO

Drivers

YES

Suit. Map

Input Output Process

LCM Tool Concept – IDRISI Taiga

1996 20012006 actual

Elevation

Dist to roads

Trans. Potential

2020

2006 proj

Dist to villages

2025

2030

Change 96-01

Model future land use change

Transition Potential Map

(Neural network)

P-FOM = 60% cloud forest

= 8% pre montane

Projected Deforestation

� based on forest classification

� 89% cloud forest (1000-2500masl)

� 7% pre montane forest (below 1000masl)

� 4% dwarf forest (above 2500masl)

� biomass measurement

� 107 plots

� above ground biomass

� root to shoot ratio

� weighted-area average non-forest

Carbon Map

� Next Steps - REDD project is under VCS validation

� currently addressing the findings (NIR, CAR)

� verification (monitoring report 2008-2011) by Sept

� CCBS validation and verification by December

Photo 25.51” x 10.31”

Position

x: 8.53”, y: .18”

Photo 14.2” x 10.31”

Position

x: 4.36”, y: .18”