Chapter 5

Alternative Space Future NEW TECHNOLOGIES

S pace reconnaissance and surveillance in the twenty-first

century and beyond will have a mission that is extraordinarily

complex from a technical stand-point, but rather straightforward as far·

as their mandate is concerned. They will be responsible for seeing and

hearing everything of importance to the national security everywhere

on earth and in space, day and night, regardless of the weather. And

they will be expected to send their intelligence not only to the agencies

and departments for dissemination to the National Command Authority,

but directly to military units in the fields as well.

Drawing upon his own experience of the 1970s William Colby has

peered into the future and Resconcluded that such " Science fiction"

capabilities as "instant visual surveillance of all areas of the globe

despite weather, darkness, or camouflage" and "instant translation of

electrical messages and oral transmission anywhere in the world" are

"well within the possibility of development." Given the extreme sensitivity

of the subject,the prediction of the former director of Central Intelligence'

is suitably nonspecific, but it is nevertheless on the mark. 1

1. Colby, William E. Honerable Men • My life in the CIA (New York,

Simon & Schuster, 1978), p 461.

1/J

116

American scientists and engineers are now in the process of

designing various stages of a complex, which is a highly responsive

electronic shell that is to enclose and describe the sphere on which we

live. The planet and the space surrounding it are becoming

encapsulated by whole networks of orbital devices whose eyes, ears,

and silicon brains gather information in endless streams and then route

it to supercomputers for instantaneous processing and analysis-for a

kind of portrait of what is happening on planet Earth painted

electronically in real time.

The reconnaissance and surveillance platforms will vary

considerably, yet all are to be interconnected to constitute a single, all-

encompassing, intelligence collection apparatus. There are plans for

advanced versions of nearly all of the current space systems, including

those in the Keyhole series, Rhyolite and its various derivatives, the

Jumpseat radar ferrets and their low-orbiting counterparts, the ELINT

satellites that use intermediate orbits, and the White cloud ocean-

surveillance spacecraft. The imaging satellites will be far more

maneuverable than those now in use, while all of the next generation

of spacecraft will have more powerful sensors, real-time data-processing

and transmission, and enhanced attack-hardening. 2

And there will be new types of satellites. One is being designed to

watch laser tests. Another will carry a nuclear-powered radar that will

2. White Cloud Ocean Surveillance Satellite: Part of the US Navy Space

Project with National Reconnaissance Organisation in 1981.

be able to peer through a cloud cover by using a giant dish or a

rectangular array, the approximate size of a football field that is built of

ribs and membranes having the thickness of a tinfoil. The rectangular

antenna would be carried to its orbital point in the shape of a cylinder

and then unrolled like a giant window shade. Another spacecraft, whose

heart is to be a large mosaic of infra red sensors, will stare down from

its celestial perch and track individual aircraft and cruise missiles by

following the heat they emit. Still others, constituting a space-based.

Surveillance System, will keep a watch over other nations' satellites in

order to provide early warning of an attack on the U.S. assets.

Aerial reconnaissance will have its place as well. The SR-71 's

eventual successor is probably going to be a so-called trans-atmospheric'

vehicle (TAV), or hypersonic airplane, powered by supersonic

combustion ramjets ("Scram jets"). It will take off and land on conventional

runways, but will carry sensors, satellites, and other cargo to low orbit

at blistering speeds in the range of Mach 25--seventeen thousand miles

an hour-- which will get it from New York to Peking in slightly more than

thirty minutes. The civilian version is already being called the "Orient

Express".

There are plans, rarely mentioned, to place a space station in orbit.

This will be an, unmanned one and would travel the polar route carrying

a variety of sensors for meteorology, target mapp1ng. and

reconnaissance.

1/7

Radar images transmitted from space can come in either analog or

digital form. In either case the images may be turned into standard

photographs to show what's going on at night or under the clouds. But

radar imagery in digital form has a significant advantage over the analog

variety". It can be computer-manipulated. What appears to the unaided

eye in an analog photograph, for example, can be digitally massaged

so that distinct shapes appear.

"According to John Ford, supervisor of the Imaging Radar Geology

Group at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, "You can digitally manipulate

data in such a fashion that you create very strong contrasts, It was at

this laboratory that SIR-A and SIR-8, the shuttle's radars, were built.

He proceeded, "That allows you to see things which were completely

obscured before this processing technique had been applied. 'In other

words, bulges in the earth that might not appear in a standard

photograph or an analog radar image that was made by pointing the

sensor straight down would be clearly delineated by digitally

manipulating the radar picture. In addition, radar images taken from

directly above an object can be digitally rearranged so as to give the

viewer the perspective of seeing it from all sides. This has profound

implications where the analysis of foreign weapons systems and military

installations are concerned.

3. Gerald, Merille and Pamela W. Edward (ed~pace

Station: Policy, Planning and UtilizatiodNew York.

American lnstutite of Aeronautics 1983), p- 28.

/IIi

It is predicted that by the year 2001 the space around planet Earth

will be surrounded not by the great white roulette-wheel stations that

come to mind through the novels of Arthur C.Ciark, but by a series of

antenna farms floating at altitudes of between one thousand and five

thousand miles and pointing downward. Space-based nuclear-powered

radar technology is being actively pursued by the Air Force and DARPA

so that systems can be placed in orbit that will detect Russian bombers

(whether they are stealthy or not) and cruise missiles, and will also be

used to watch ballistic missile tests, to know the where abouts of the

world's navies, and all man-made objects in space. The Pentagon

earmarked $60 million in the fiscal year 1989 for research leading to

the development of radar satellites that will in effect "put a fence around

the U.S. " It is estimated that six or seven such spacecraft would be

needed at the five thousand-mile altitude, necessary in one -thousand­

mile high orbits because they would not be able to see as far. Although

the United States may have launched one phased array radar satellite

in January 1982, it bore no resemblance to those currently on the

drawing boards at Grumman Aero Space, which is designing the.

antenna, and at General Electric, Raytheon, and Texas Instruments,

which are developing solid-state transmission and reception modules

which will be smaller than a-twenty-five-cent piece) for the satellit(~S

The space Surveillance and Tracking System (SSTS) will comprise

another fleet of spacecraft-- at least four-- that will use infrared and

/19

visible wavelength sensors to monitor Russian satellites with a view to

defining in precise terms what they do and what their capabilities are.

and will also provide early warning of an attack on the U S. space·

systems.

The SR-71 will be replaced, but probably not by a specially

constructed reconnaissance aircraft. Instead, research is now under

way on a trans-atmospheric vehicle (TAV)-- sometimes called a

hypersonic plane, a national aerospace plane, an advanced aerospace

vehicle (AAV), military aerospace vehicle (MAV) , or the X30- which is

to perform several missions, one of the foremost being reconnaissance.

Although the spaceplane's specific configuration and precise role

varies according to the company doing the study, its central concept·

centers on a manned vehicle that will take off from a standard runway,

climb to the fringe of space at dazzling speed, orbit the earth if

necessary, and then return to terra firma just as a satndard airplane

would. Some envision the craft as a second-generation space shuttle

able to carry twenty-thousand-pound cargoes to a low orbit, while others

think of it as a multirole space bomber that will be able to attack any

place itself on earth within ninety minutes of taking off. It is to have a

ceiling of about thirty miles in one plan, and more than twice that in

another. Some designers think it ought to be rocket-powered, though

most would like it to be propelled by a highly advanced supersonic

combustion ramjet. 4

4. USAF Spurs Spaceplane Research'Aviation Week & Space

TechnologyMarch 26, 1984. pp- 16- 17.

120

121

But it is the military mission that drives the spaceplane, which in

the view of DARPA and the Air Force, will have at least three

advantages over the shuttle: it will be launchable on immediate notice:

it will be able to go up during severe weather conditions if necessary;

and it will operate both in air and in space, giving it greater mission

flexibility.

"A TAV could react quickly from the continental U.S. to any global

incident with the versatility to provide reconnaissance, force projection,

strategic defense and interdiction support as desired, "5

Although it is unlikely,a high-altitude hypersonic reconnaissance

may also mark the end of the sort of mission, SR-7 is and others

currently fly along the periphery of Eastern Europe, the Russia, and

the People's Republic of China. A forty-five-mile-high mission flown at

better than seventeen thousand miles an hour over the denied territory

would transform a spaceplane into the equivalent of a manned spy

satellite-- a modern MOL. Such missions might well resurrect the sort

of political and legal conflict that attended the beginning of the U.S

space reconnaissance program and subsided only in 1963. within a

year of the Kremlin's having gotten its own reconnaissance satellites

off the ground. Each country has been flown over repeatedly by

astronauts and cosmonauts of the other side since the manned space

5. DARPA Plans Supersonic Ramjet Technology Program' Aviation

\/\Leek & space TechnologtJ1ay 6th 1993. p 111.

programs began, but not at altitudes hundred miles and for the express

purpose of collecting intelligence.

As already noted, the vulnerability of reconnaissance and

surveillance satellites' uplinks, downlinks and tracking stations to attack

or to natural disaster has been a source of concern for a number of

years. In the long run, expanding the conrol points (providing the

Consolidated Space Operations Center at Colorado Spnngs with·

Control of several military satellite systems to take some of the load off

Sunnyvale, for example) will not suffice because the number of such

expensive sites must necessarily remain extremely limited, and the

satellites will therefore remain at a considerable risk.

Because of this as well as due to the possibility of the satellites

being attacked, Robert Cooper told 'Aviation week & Space Technology'

that the "umbilical cord" connecting the control facilities on earth to the

satellites is going to have to be cut in successive stages until the orbiters

are able to take care of themselves to an extent that is now almost

unbelievable. Not only are they going to have to be hardened, but

perhaps more important, they are going to have to be made to "think"

for thernselves. 6

According to Cooper, the head of DARPA," Currentfy satellites are

taken care of by smart people on the surface of the earth. " He added

6. USAF Pushes Surviavability of SateilitesP.viation Week &

S_Race Technolo@eptember 24. 1988. pp- 71 -72

122

"Generally, those are people who know about the design of the satellite

and who watch it intensively, twenty four-hours a day When a fault

occurs in any of our spacecraft, these smart people spring 1mmed1ately

into action. They diagnose the difficulty in the spacecraft and they

determine actions that can be taken to preserve the mission. With the

flexibility that exists in many of our spacecraft, an almost infinite number

of actions can be taken that will tend to preserve the mission, perhaps

in some degraded form, "7 .

There is a rising concern within the national technical intelligence

establishment, and particularly the Air Force, that world's expanding.

network of space systems, certainly including its reconnaissance and

surveillance satellites, is, in varying degrees, vulnerable to a generally

less sophisticated, but adequate, Russian attack capability. The space­

craft do not have to cope with air turbulence, weather. severe

gravitational effects, and other hazards associated with flight in the

atmosphere, so toughness has been sacrificed in all cases for maximum

mission capability. Satellites are not only inherently "dumb," but extremely

fragile. This gives the would-be attacker a considerable advantage.

Accordingly, there are at least four avenues besides autonomy that

are being followed in order to maximize the chances for satellite survival

in the event of attack: hardening, maneuvering, deception. and

proliferation.

7 Ibid, pp 71 - 72,

123

Hardening is the most widely used protective measure and Involves

a number of techniques employed to protect the spacecraft and its

support systems by making them physically resistant to attack. The

use of gallium arsenide in place of silicon in the satellite's sensors and

computers has already been mentioned, as have metal shielding and

the use of protective doors and coated lenses to help block the laser

attack. Research is also under way to develop solar panels that are

more resistant to the effects of nuclear explosions and other radiation

than those currently in use It has also been suggested that, where

possible, solar panels should be abandoned altogether in favor of

nuclear energy, either from isotopes or from reactors. Nuclear power

plants not only produce more energy than solar panels but are far less

susceptible to the effects of laser radiation, concussion, sharpnel, or·

pellet barrage. Some U.S. military satellites currently operate with

isotopes, though none of them are low-orbiters, since the NRO does

not want to risk the sort of embarrassment that the former Soviet Union

experienced when two of its radar ocean reconnaissance satellites

tumbled out of orbit carrying hot fissile material.

Since spoofing and jamming are among the most tempting ways to

interfere with satellites because of their ambiguous effects (especially

those relating to spoofing), they are particularly worrisome. Bes1des

encryption equipment, which has long been used for bott1 uplink and

downlink communications, the next generation of satellites will go 1nto

l IL4

space with beam- hopping antennas, so the data flow will jump from

one antenna to another.

There will also be rapid changes of frequency, burstrng (the

transmission of data in short, tightly packed segments}, and the use of

extremely high frequency wave lengths. EHF signals do not disperse

as readily as those on the lower wavelengths, and they are therefore

more difficult to jam or intercept. Extremely high frequency transmission

travels in such straight lines that anyone wanting to interfere with it

must be virtually between the transmitter and the receiving antenna rn

order to do so.

Maneuvering is considered to be of marginal value at best against

co-orbital interceptors and virtually useless against directed energy

weapons such as chemical and nuclear-pumped lasers, particle beams,

or electro-magnetic railguns.

There are several methods by which satellites can try to deceive

their attackers, though. One, inherent in the design of the spacecraft

itself, involves "stealth", or low-observable, technology. This entails

designing the satellites with as many smooth curved surfaces as

possible in order to reduce their radar cross section (which is yet

another argument for getting rid of the solar pad.dles and going to

nuclear). Skins sheathed in the new "ultra black" coating wrll absorb

radar pulses rather than reflect them, while protective covers will be

used to reduce heat emissions in order to thwart infra red-drrected

attack systems.

12S

As far back as the 1960s, Air Force B-52 bombers were equipped

with an electronic countermeasure known as "range gate-stealing" that

allowed them to project their image away from themselves so that they

appeared on enemy radar to reach where they hadn't. Theoretically,

there is no reason why such a system would not work on satellites as

well. In the same vein, research has been under way since the late

seventies on ways to electronically reduce the spectral signatures of

satellites in the regions where Soviet tracking sensors normally operate

so that the spacecraft's images are further reduced on the opposition's.

radar. 8

The last and most devious bit of deception has to do with the use

of "dead," or "sleeping, "satellites. Perfectly functional spacecraft might

be disguised as spent boosters or other discarded orbital junk, as

satellites that have been turned off prematurely so as to appear useless,

or as vehicles that give the appearance of having suffered total point

failure when in fact they are merely being kept dormant until needed.

Proliferation entails increasing the number of satellites doing

reconnaissance and surveillance and keeping as many of them as.

possible out of harm's way. Given the expense involved in building

reconnaissance satellites, emulating the Russians in terms of assembly

line production and a rapid launch rate is clearly out of the question

The better alternative seems to be the use of very high orbits-higher

8. Stancey, Roym World War II Phpto I nte_ll igence (London

Sidgwirck Jackson, 1981 ), p 91.

/26

than synchronous. The advantage of the synchronous orbrt is that It

allows a satellite to remain in a nearly fixed position relatrve to the

earth at all times. But this brings disadvantages, too. Spacecraft with

fixed positions are particularly easy targets for such ASATs as

neighboring but are really space mines waiting to be triggered at the

appropriate moment. Placing space craft in orbits beyond synchronousat

sixty thousand miles or more, for example helps to keep them beyond

the region in which sudden, successful attack is possible.

PLANS, PROJECTS IN SPACE

Varieties of Space Development

We distinguished above the rate of development 1n space

(technological achievements, trends in R n D expenditure etc) from the.

direction of that development (the kinds of activities which are taking

place) These are of course interdependent. Different activities may be

developed at different rates, either because of the technological

challenge they pose or because of the political will they evoke The

development of one activity may render that of another, at a faster or

slower pace, more orless probable.

To put or method of analysis to work, it is more helpful to consider·

the actual trends in space development in the past than to speculate in

the abstract about all conceivable uses to which space might be put ..

What then have been the main activities in space. and what

determinants and interests have underlied them.

127

In the preceding chapter the major trends of space develorment

have been identified both in terms of the areas of space utiltzat1on and

their resoective rates of development. An assessment of the first 25

years of space history reveals a shifting pattern of interests and

"justifications' for particular modes of space exploration and explo1tatton .

lri the early days of the space age, political, military-strategtc and

scientific interests dominated the space activities (initially confined only

to the two superpowers). During the 1960s and 1970s, however,

scientific exploration and prestigaseeking, while not disappearing, were

gradually replaced as the central axes of space development by a more

pragmatic utilization, giving way to the exploitation of space for economic

and military objectives. (Table 1.)

This table roughly captures the profile of the space development

1n terms of such factors as actual expenditures devoted to different

areas of R and D, and launches carried out for different purposes - if

not the public image which is presented for the vanous space

programmes by space agencies or popular science. Unless there is a

radical change in our· poolitical and economic affairs here on Eartn.

current trends sugges\ that the main factors determintng space

development will be: ( 1) the perceived economic importance of space.

and (2), the perceived military objectives. Table 1 charts the changing

course of space activity over the past decades. in terms of 1ts maJor

determinants.

/2H

Table I Past Trends in Space Development

Period Major determinants Example of trend

-1950-1960 1. Politicamilitary

2. Scientific

-1960-1970 1. Political

(Prestige)

2. Economic

3. Military

-1970-1980 1. Economic

2. Military

-1980-1996 Economic

Perceived military potential of

launch ere

New Horizon: scientific

experiements in space-earth and

planetery sdence.

Moon-race;emphasla in USA and

USSR on space

"firsts"

Growing awareness of practical

uses of space env1onment

(communications, weather

satellites).

Space

satellites

defence/su rvei II ance

Practical exploitation of space

enviornment;'commercialization' of

space products and serv1ces.

Military command/

communications, systems 1n

space; renewed interest in

offensive space techonology

Commercia I i z at ion-space

weapons and counterweapons

/29

However, the resurgence of science and exploration as s1gn1ficant.

·driving forces' for space developments cannot a priori be ruled out An

assesment of alternative modes of space development will therefore

be considered along three axes :

Economic

Political/Military

Scientific I Exploratory.

Considering the rate and direction of space development primarily

as a dependent variable, it is imperative to assess the poss1ble changes

along these axes of development in the context of alternative social'

and economic configurations. More particularly, as international conflict

and cooperation assumes different dimensions, so will their expression

in space technology. To examine what future space developments may

look I ike it is necessary to explore different scenanos of world

developments , which will provide the basis from which part1cular space

futures would stem. Such secenarios will not only enable us to consider

the influence of particular social and economic factors on the nature of

space activities, but in turn would also lead us to explore the "impacts"

of space futu:-es on earth.

/30

/31

Space as economic resource

Space has already become important as an advantous location for

carrying certain forms of infrastructure and services. The use ot satellites

for telecommunications and remote sensing (for meteorological and

resource-location purposes among others) is already important. and

continues to grow Space may also become a source of resources e g

the possibilities for beaming solar energy to Earth. (In the more distant

future mining on to the Moon or the Asteroids may be added to the list

of potential resource applications). Space may also become a site for

directly productive activities, with potential advantages in terms of low

gravity, plentiful solar energy, and lack of environmental damage caused

by material or thermal or other radiation pollution.

"Such economic uses require technological developments more

efficient delivery systems, such as space shuttles which can carry

greater loads from Earth into orbit at lower coasts, and crafts suitable·

for repeated excursions to !unar or asteroidal sites. Improved space

platforms and manned space stations are required, so that permanent

habitation of orbital power stations and laboratories and industnai bases

can become a reality, giving greater fle:,ibiiity of operation Such

developments face financial constraints, involving competing cla;ms

for F~ and 0 budgets (for example. from terrestrial modes of pcwer

generation or conservation) and perhaps they face environmental

constraints as well". ''

9. Integrated space system shapes future battlefield Desc:rtstrom

Proves Satellites Tact i ca! I rnporta nc~lli Nj\L 4 5 1. 1 0 1 June

1991, pp- 41-43.

Abstracting for the moment from the actual pattern of interests on

Earth, one can consider the major determinants of econorn 1 c

development in space under two headings economic and polit1cal

imperatives.

Economic Determinants

The first determinants are internal to the economic system,which.

we shall first .consider in a very abstract way, before reintroducing our

scenarios. What is the demand for the products and services involved?

How far can they be provided at a lower cost or higher quality through

space technologies? Telecommunications, for example, continues to

grow in significance, and the informatization of societies may represent

a qualitative and quantitative extension of this trend. There is a number

of areas where competition may be quite fierce, for example satellite

and cable mass broadcast systems, but it seems likely that many space

systems will find a significant number of uses for which they are better

suited than terrestrial technologies. It is likely that in the medium term.

the demand for space products and services (old and new) will continue

to grow-barring major economic setback and thereby provide a maJor

imperative for the further economic exploitation of space.

Political Determinants

The second group of determinants is political. Here also it is useful

to treat these initially in a quite abstract way (forgetting for the moment

132

the existence of international competition and argreements about

jurisdiction etc). In terms of immediate returns on investment. many

areas of space development that may in the long term be extremely

useful in economic terms, may not appear immediately attractive today.

They may demand vast resources or a coordination of efforts at a level

that only few firms can achieve; the risks and timelags in the investment

may be outside those normally considered acceptable. At the very least,

the willingness for governments to underwrite or gurantee investments

in space technology development may be vital to the extension of space

economics. The heavy dominance of national governments (and·

governmental organizations), rather than private industries, in the

funding of space research and development, suggests that (as in the

past) substantial government intervention in space development may

well continue to be necessary too.

Governments may limit such investment in response for free market

ideology, concerns over state expenditure or domestic, political or

economic crisis. On the other hand, pressure for their intervention may

corne from perceptions of the strategic importance of space as an

economic resource, from attempts to achieve reflaction with productive

investment rather than with increased consumption, or from the claims

of aerospace in-dustries and other parties that perceive benefits to

themselves in major state contracts being issued for space development

133

134

The picture emanating from forecasts by space agenc1es and

aerospace industries frequently mirrors faith in the development and

rapid growth of a viable world market for space technology and serv1ce ..

Even so as highlighted by the recent US government initiatives 1n funding

the space station development for Russiann substantial intial state or

intergovernmental investment would be required, at least at the early

stages of developments. "The potential for commercial exploitation of

space as a site for infrastructure may well be very real, whilst other

industrial prospects may be expected to mature slowly. Judging by the

limited commercial demand for room abroad the Shuttle excluding for

the moment 'regular' space customers for telecommunications satellite

Iandes some of tile enthusiasm for the , industrialization of space' seems

to have been generated somewhat prematurely. Political dynamics and

the politics of self-interest are important in assessing the potential growth

of space as an economic resource. Thus a lower level of abstraction is

required, one which recognizes the existence of industrial and

international competition and broader issues, governed by political,

economic and social developments. Our global sceanarios are useful

here. 10

Table 2 sets out the main features of the world scenanos relevant

to the economic development of space. Of course, there are numerous

10 Gelsenheynes, Stephen 'HUMINT, !MINT and SIGINT' The ThFee

C o r n e r S t o n e 0 f I n t e II i g e n c e G at 11 e r i n g A ____ .8 M _6_Q_6

INTERNATIONAL12 (6) 1988 -89. pp- 23- 24.

variants on these scenarios, dependent on the precise conditions of

realization and ·peripheral' developments within each scenano wh1ch

could have significant implications for space development. But tak1ng

a fairly simplistic approach to each scenario it is possible to establish

that a link can be made between economic and political determmats

·generated' with a particular scenario, and the future of space

developments.

"We have situated space development for economic purposes

squarely in the arena of North-South relations, which in turn is h1ghly

bound upo with the economic and other relations that pertain among

Western societies. We have not yet touched on East-West relations,

although these may of course extend to the economic development of

space; East and West could actively cooperate, or passively permit

each other's independent development (in which case demand factors

are likely to be higher in the West), or mutually interfere with each.

other's efforts by legal, political or other means, And Esast-West relations

could influence the North-South dynamic. It is in the military development

of space, however, that the East-West relations are the rnost pressing

concern, Present indications are that major advances in cooperation

are unlikely, while interferance in other countries' space efforts may

lead to military conflict". 11

11. Jarrett, Joyce R,'NASA'S Approach to Quality and Productive

lmprovementSIGNAL44 (5) Jan 1993, pp 65- 66.

135

TABLE 2 WORLD SCENARIOS AND FEATURES RELEVANT TO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF Sl'.\( ·~-:

Secenario

A. New international

B. Protectionism

C. New economic order

D. Collective selfreliance

Releveant feature vis-a-v1s econom1c

development of space

Fair degree of cooperation among

western division of labour industrialized

economies (probably under US/Japan

hegemony, though alternatives

possible). Increased role of transnational

cooperations. Pressure on national

states to provide modern infrastructure.

Considerable disarray and economic

tension within West; perhaps some

establishment or consolidation of zones

of interest, major state intervention in

economic affairs, including trade and

technology purchases.

Emphasis on developing third world

resources and manufacturing, within a

framework of international agreement ,

Withdrawal of much of third world from

economic ties with West, possibility of

new alignments with certain countries Dr

regions (Second World).

1311

Space as an area of military expansion

Ever since the beginning of the space age, military objectives have

played a key role in the development of space. Early pioneers of rocketry

found the military to be the only ready source of finance and even the

Space Shuttle development today would have been impossible without

considerable military finances and military application potential that

military exploitation of space has been a major, and growing, area of

developments.

The rate of development of space militarization, as well as 1ts

direction is largely given by political, factors. These relate firstly to

political perceptions of the strategic importance of space technology in'

the context of (potential) international conflicts. But we could also include

among these, 'military-industrial complex' type dynamics and pressures

from aerospace and electronics manufacturers, who are frequently more

concerned with securing contracts, than with the long run dangers of

weapons sales.

A more rapid rate of development of space militarization could reflect

increased East-West tension and/or increased government susceptibility

to military-industrial pressures (which is likely to be reflected and

legitimized in increased tension).

What can future space militarization look like? If current trends are

followed, would increase greater dependence of Earthbound war­

fighting systems in space technology. There would be an mcrease in

137

the number, complexity and effectivenese of satellites used for

surveillance, early warning, communications, and as navigational

equipment. Correspondingly the development of high-technology

systems for the destruction of satellites of various kinds, missiles

I aunched from stratospheric aircraft, perhaps beam weapons In turn

various conutermeasures will become ap_parent in technological

developments : decoys and other means of evading detection,

hardening of satellites and use of surfaces which are less vulnerable

to laser attack. Space weapons and manned military platforms 111 Earth

orbit may be added to the current range of satellites.

The willingness or otherwise of countries with capabilities for space

militarization to agree and adhere to new agreements that limit the new

military uses of space will be conditioned by both internal and

international political developments. At the moment, the postures of in:

both East and West are far from reassuring, and the level of East-West

tension is a key determinant of the rate at which military development

in space materializes. Recent international development do not suggest

that the prospects are bright. Existing arrangements limiting the military

uses of outer space are wildly inadequate. Some hope may arise from

the rising peace movement in the West-and to a lesse1- extent m the

East-which have become a significant political force.

One interesting and particularly relevant development here 1s the

formation (in 1979) of a group called Citizens for Space [)emilitanzat1on.

r~--------- - ·--- ---· . ··---,

~,,. ,,, , .. ,,."

-~ ... .. ,,< ~ · rr . :~ (2J ' l r v c:•wcr :.1- - -·-··

i

toot caddy

tcrwa:::l . t ; ac:<>·: ~rd .

S!dCWa }'S. UP ar:d d o -,. n rr.o verr.ent

;!•rn teng:n / ac:uS!;T'('T' f !(;•,f ! (2)

I

-fuel tac~s tor thruster J€15 (2)

adtustao;e · arm(2)

body s•de towers (2)

arm ang·e <ldjustrrent !ever(2)

Figure 41 The manned manoeuvring unit (MMU)

st:bscqv ;r•t sil :c tir te rescue rnissrons. ___ _

. . ·- ··--

1;1 s b.Jck;..·acl; e~:::o tes an astrol'laut to work untethcrcd rr.ore _than tOO It (30m) lro:11 the sp:~cec •i! lt It weighs 300 lb and contains enough oxygen and electric power to ~uf'G - ! the as:ronaut lor seven hcurs. Movement is made P<>ssob:e by 24 tony JP.ts .-.h;..;h pro;:.-et niirogen gas. Top speed is around 66ft (20m) a second. It

,, ;;s :·•st ~:~~>d by Bruce McCandk•ss . rnissoon :;pecoahst on St1u1tte 41 -8, on j 7 r .. ,,, ,,,, , i ,:; .:;.1 tt w.~s l:tter lt· s:o'd on <he same miss;on uy Robert Stewart and in

L ----- - --- - - - -- -······ . --- - --- ------

.. .. Vl

.. 01 ;;

- ~ .... ~ .. .. u .c c 5: .~ 0 u E ~ <~

. Sp . .l (l' Sl i,!< ... n {.t ; 11> : ; .u ·c!' : NA SA

in the USA. If such groups can publicize the dangers of space

militarization effectively, war may see new and more effective embargoes

on space becoming the battlefield of the future.

"Much of the impetus for military space activities is, however, g1ven

by international relations and perceived strategic threats. Given that

the superpowers are the main actors in the military space race. the

future of the East-West relationship takes on particular Significance.

The scenarios outlined above suggest rather different patterns for the

development of East-West tension. Additionally, we should not forget

that space development may play a part in North-South political-military

relations too". 12

A cursory review of the implications of different world scenarios for

the degree and nature of military uses of outer space highlights the

critical interrelationship between various political and economic futures

and prospective space developments.

Again, the 'militarization of space' may in turn have an impact on

the various scenarios of space development. A decisive superiority in

space by one nation or a bloc of nations could tilt tile balance of povv'er.

(Especially important, for which could further undermine the already

shaky doctrine of deterrence). This threat, frequently emphasized by

the military, has provided to be major imperative for arms race dynamics

in space. Further spacE:! militrazation is likely in several scenanos. Even

12. Ibid. pp- 65-66.

139

when the degree of superpower conflict is limited and a balance of

power in space is aimed for, the military uses of space are dangerous

and disturbing. The risk of accidents and technical flaws, or preemptive

attacks, remains considerable, and is likely to reinforce scenarios of

increased tension and mutual distrust rather than of cooperation. On

the other hand, some alternative developments, such as the creation

of a ·satellite monitoring agency' , in relation to agreements on military

restraint, may reduce world insecurity.

The impact of the military uses of space is more likely to be

destabilizing than not in most scenarios. New entrants to the military.

development of space, in both North and South (eg France, China),

will furthermore mitigate against a greater degree of peace and stability

in global development. The different conflicts inherent in each of the

world scenarios are likely to be reinforced by the military activities in

space. The threat of the militarization of space endangering peace on

Earth remains a real one, and it should be the target of cooperative

efforts to halt this development, even when international cooperation

in other areas of world affairs is severely limited.

Space development for Science and Exploration

During the 1950 and 1960s and to a lesser extent since then, space

development has been in part motivated by interest in basic science

and exploration. As the relative decline of space science budgets if the

major space nations reflects, science and exploration have become

/4()

·secondary' justifications for space activities compared to both the

practical applications of space technology and the interest m rnil1tary

exploitation. 13

In the past quarter-century, space world has seen in addition to a

modest levei of scientific satellites in Earth-Orbit, a considerable activity

in the field of lunar and planetary exploration. The enormous

investments made in space exploration (eg the successful Viking proJect

of landings on Mars which cost 1 billion) have yielded a phenomenal

increase in our knowledge and understanding of geology and plantary

formation and have stimulated considerable advances in scientific

instrumentation and unmanned spacecraft, such as space robots.

However, more recently economic constrains and the relative lack of

priority for space science as compared to economic and military uses·

of space, have considerably reduced the level of scientific space

exploration.

Over the past few years especially, pressures have been growing

for more application-related scientific activities, and for space science

to be considerably more cost-conscious. The amount of data from earlier

scientific space missions which is yet to be analysed is considerable,

and has helped furthei to reduce pressures even from the scientific

establishments themselves for new space science initiatives Another

13. Bond, Peter,Heroes In Sp~ce: From Gargarin To Ci1a!leo.g~r

(New York, Basil 81ackwell1987), p- 187.

141

factor reducing the rate and direction of scientific space activities is the

growing acknowledgement that space science will have to compete for

funds with other fields of research. In this context, awareness among

scientists is growing that scientific laboratories in space may well creat

as many problems for experiementers as they initially would have

seemed to solve. The present disappointing scientific interests in the.

use of the Spacelab research facility broad the Space Shuttle is

reflection of this trend.

Above all, it seems to be the economic cost involved in space

operations that mitigates against major investments in space science

in the coming decades. Only a restoration of economic growth is likely

to lead to more resources becoming available for scientific space activity.

Even in that case,it is likely that space development will have to compete

with other fields of basic research, particularly ·big science' ( eg earth

based astronomy).Aithough advances have been made in assessment

techniques of costs and benefits of 'big science' projects, evaluations

of basic research initiatives are likely to continue to be stongly influenced

by political determinants.

In the near-term future, space activities are likely to be shaped by

continuing economic constraints and pressures towards the diversion

of resources away from basic to applied scientific research and space

applications. This trend mitigates against calls for major initiatives for

manned scientific operations in space although we should note that

142

SELECTED ANTISATELLITE ORBITS Not to SCOIP.)

lntl"r~N:tinn nndr \

C. l'ol•r lf.O fl':.f\1

----. ---- ·-·---------

B. loop~r ASA T

----------A. Countf!rrotation ASAT traverses GEO in "w•ong" direction. Attacks all enemy satf'llit!'S

th!'r<> in 12 hours.

B. Three enemy 58tE'Itites are in semisynchronous orbit 4 hours apart. Looper ASA T picks off each one 11!1 it p11sses the intercept point.

C. B11Mery of ASATs At North Pole take less than 2 hours tn des!rov n!l !'n!'my satellites in polar L(O.

NOTE: Arfrtpt<'d from CArtr.r. A~hton B .. "S,ltr•llitr·s iln<1 /\t~l; SillPIIiiP' ... lntrrnilllnnill St>r.urity, Sprinq 1~. p. 8.1.

the USSR appears to some extent to have taken this path w1th its

Salyut/Soyuz/Progress space operations in Earth-orbit, although 1t is

not clear how far the science is ·thrown in' since the astronauts are

already there for other purposes. It will also make advanced

programmes of· space colonization' less likely, at least for purely scientific

reasons. If space habitats are developed in the next several decades,

they are more likely to materialize under economic and military

imperatives in the first instance. 14

The implications of diferent world scanarios for scientific space

exploration are likely to be less pronounced than those in the military

and economic spheres considering the dominance of the financial

problems of the current economic climate. A cursory view is, however,

justified. Within some scenarios a greater degree of international

cooperation could lead to sharing expenses through scientific

collaboration in space science. 15

The immediate impact of developments in space science on Earth

1s unlikely to be overwhelming. Scientific collaboration in space may

foster particular modes of cooperation on an international level. In the·

past, however, a greater degree of political and economic cooperation

between nations has been more fmquently a prerequisite for succe-ssful

joint activities in science and technology than the other way round. At

14. Pardoe, Geoffrey K.C.The Future For Space Technologies

(London: Frances 1984). p- 73 ..

143

15. American Space Agencies Supporting Former USSR's Space

Agencies in Developing and Launching Systems

the economic level, space research may lead to the discovery of new

materials and manufacturing processes, and natural resources Span-·

off' from scientific research in space may indeed occur, but is by

definition difficult to forecast. Furthermore, the few examples of spin­

off from earlier space developments seem to have been overrated by

space proponents, interested in justifying the enormous space

expenditures involved. More significantly, most of these spin-offs (e.g.

from project Apollo) have not been generated by the scientific exploration

of space, but by research and technical developments which were

carried out for political, military or economically oriented space projects.

Perhaps the relatively greatest short-term impact of scientific space

acitivities are to be seen in the cultural sphere.

Increased interest in space science among third world countries

may contribute to the promulgation of organization and newly

industrylizing/patterns based on advanced science and technology. In

a more positive in space scientists and others have long proclaimed

the hope that the perspective provided by the scientific exploration of

the universe, and of our planet within it, will promote a greater degree

of global cooperation and peaceful coexistence on Earth.

144