FD | December 2010

Allstate/National JournalHeartland Monitor Poll

Methodology This is the seventh quarterly installment of Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor Polls conducted by Ed Reilly and Brent McGoldrick of FD

The survey fielded between November 30 – December 1, 2010 among: —A nationally representative telephone sample of 1200 adults, aged 18 and older. Margin of error +/- 2.8%

2

The Mood of the Country & The Political Environment

For consumers, it feels like 1975 and 1992.

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

Aug-09

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Aug-10

Sep-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

37.4

25.326.9

40.8

54.849.3

47.4

54.553.4

48.750.6

53.6

56.5

46.4

52.3

57.7

62.7

54.3

51

53.5

48.6

49.9

54.1

CCI Index 09-10

Source: The Conference Board – Consumer Research Center CCI Figures

Historical PointsWinter 1975Spring 1992

4

Americans are more pessimistic about their financial prospects for 2011 than they were heading into 2010.

5

Improve / Worse Jan-10 Dec-10

White 31/22 22/28

Hispanic 47/14 41/25

African American 56/11 58/9

January 2010 December 2010Improve Stay the same Become worse

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

37%41%

20%

Improve Stay the same Become worse0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

30%

42%

25%

Thinking ahead to 2011, do you expect that your personal financial situation will…

A solid majority of Americans continues to believe the country is headed down the “Wrong Track.”

And, to start with, do you feel that THE COUNTRY, in general, is headed in the right direction, or do you think things are seriously off on the wrong track? (APRIL 09: N=602, Margin of Error =+/-4%) (JULY 09: N=1202, Margin of Error =+/-2.8%) (SEPTEMBER 09: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (JANUARY 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (APRIL 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (August 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (December 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%)

Right Dir. / Wrong Track

Republicans 11/84

Independents 26/64

Democrats 49/37

April 2

009

July

2009

Septem

ber 2

009

Janu

ary 20

10

April 2

010

Augus

t 201

0

Decem

ber 2

010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

47%

38% 38%34% 34%

27%30%

42%

50% 50%55% 54%

62% 60%

Right Direction

Wrong Track

6

When it comes to their rating of President Obama’s job performance, Americans are evenly split.

And, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? APRIL 09: N=602, Margin of Error =+/-4%) (JULY 09:N=1202, Margin of Error =+/-2.8%) (SEPTEMBER 09: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (JANUARY 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (APRIL 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (August 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (December 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%)

April 2

009

July

2009

Septem

ber 2

009

Janu

ary 20

10

April 2

010

Augus

t 201

0

Decem

ber 2

010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%61%

56%52%

47% 48%

46%

48%

28%

36%40%

45% 46%

49%

46%

Approve

Disapprove

Approval / Disapproval Apr-09 Dec-10

Republicans 26/60 7/88

Independents 61/29 45/47

Democrats 89/6 85/11

7

In general, do you think that the actions being taken by the Obama Administration will… (JULY 09: N=1202, Margin of Error =+/-2.8%) (SEPTEMBER 09: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (JANUARY 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (APRIL 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (August 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (December 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%)

Increase / Decrease by Race

White 25/42

Hispanic 38/25

African American 67/7

Most Americans do not believe President Obama’s policies have created more opportunity for them, individually.

Increase Opportunity for People Like Me to Get Ahead

Decrease Opportunity for People Like Me to Get Ahead

Have No ImpactJuly 2009 September

2009 January

2010April 2010 August

2010 December

2010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%40% 39%

37%

34%32% 32%

30% 30% 34%

36%38%

35%

23%25% 25% 25% 26% 27%

8

President Obama remains slightly more trusted on the economy than Republicans.

And, in general, who do you trust more to develop solutions to the country’s economic challenges… APRIL 09: N=602, Margin of Error =+/-4%) (JULY 09:N=1202, Margin of Error =+/-2.8%) (SEPTEMBER 09: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (JANUARY 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (APRIL 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (August 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (December 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%)

April 2

009

July

2009

Septem

ber 2

009

Janu

ary 20

10

April 2

010

Augus

t 201

0

Decem

ber 2

010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60% 55%

46% 48%

41% 39%42% 42%

26% 28% 27%33% 32%

37% 36%

12%17% 16%

19% 19%14% 15% President Obama

Republicans in Congress

Neither

Trust Apr-09 Dec-10

Republicans 15/63/18 3/82/10

Independents 50/23/16 35/28/27

Democrats 87/7/15 82/8/5

9

Thinking back over the policies that President Obama has pursued during his Presidency, would you say that the country is… (JANUARY 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (APRIL 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (August 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (December 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%)

Better / Right Direction / Worse

Republicans 3/18/75

Independents 10/45/36

Democrats 27/64/6

Few think Obama’s policies have made the country better off, but many Americans maintain a positive outlook.

Significantly Better Off

Moving in the Right Direction

Significantly Worse OffJanuary 2010 April 2010 August 2010 December 2010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

13%11% 11%

14%

31%

37%41%

37%

52%

46%44% 44%

10

Americans are increasingly worried about opportunities for the next generation.

And, thinking ahead to when today’s children are your age, do you think they will have…

11

July 2010More

oppo

rtunit

y to g

et ah

ead

About

the sa

me opp

ortun

ity

Less

oppo

rtunit

y to g

et ah

ead

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

31% 29% 36%

December 2010More

oppo

rtunit

y to g

et ah

ead

About

the sa

me opp

ortun

ity

Less

oppo

rtunit

y to g

et ah

ead

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

25% 30%39%

More / Less Jul-09 Dec-10

White 25/40 17/47

Hispanic 38/31 34/26

African American 57/16 55/11

America’s International Competitiveness

China U.S. Japan E.U. India Russia0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50% 47%

20%

11%6% 5%

2%

By a wide margin, Americans say China is the world’s strongest economy today. Looking ahead 20 years, they see U.S. & China at parity.

And which ONE of the following countries or regions do you think has the strongest economy in the world today?

Today’s Strongest Economy

China U.S. Japan E.U. India Russia0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

37% 34%

6% 5% 5%1%

And, from that same list, which ONE do you think will have the strongest economy in the world 20 years from today?

Future Strongest Economy

13

21% of Americans think the US economy will be in 20 years, but isn’t today. This sentiment is more prominent in those without a college degree and also those who are currently looking for work.

On key economic “ingredients”, Americans perceive the U.S. to be ahead of most major economies, especially colleges & universities and science and research.

Elementary and secondary education

Cooperation between business and government

Government policies to encourage economic growth

Workforce

Leaders running corporations

Science and research

Colleges and universities

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

43%

46%

50%

56%

57%

66%

74%

53%

43%

40%

39%

32%

28%

22%

Total AheadTotal Behind

Now I’d like to read you a list of several aspects of the U.S. economy and ask you to tell me where you think the U.S. ranks, compared to the list of countries we just discussed. For each aspect I read, please tell me whether you think the U.S. ranks…

25%

52%

38%

17%

10%

3%

-10%

Margin

14

-Younger generations are more likely to believe that the quality of Colleges and Universities (80%) as well as Science and Research (79%) rank ahead of the other listed countries.

-Respondents making $100,000 and above believe the quality of the U.S. business leaders ranks ahead of other listed countries (70%) on a greater margin than the total population.

Drivers of Economic Growth & Manufacturing

Energy and Healthcare are seen as the biggest drivers of economic growth, with manufacturing among the most important industries.

Media and entertainment

Tourism and hospitality

General professional services like accounting, advertising, consulting, and legal

Retail

Construction and home-building

Financial services

Pharmaceuticals

Biotechnology

Manufacturing

Information technology

Agriculture

Healthcare

Energy

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

7%

11%

15%

16%

23%

26%

27%

32%

33%

36%

36%

42%

47%

15%

31%

33%

33%

40%

39%

40%

44%

47%

43%

48%

43%

45%

Extremely ImportantVery Important

Now I’d like to read you a list of industries. After I read each one, please tell me how important you think this industry is to creating economic growth in the U.S. over the next 5-10 years?

92%

65%

63%

49%

48%

42%

22%

79%

80%76%

67%

85%

84%

16

While Americans are split on the current state of the manufacturing industry, there is clear hope for future growth.

When it comes to creating the manufacturing industries of the 21st century, compared to countries such as The European Union, Russia, China, Japan and India, is the U.S…

Total Ahead Total Behind0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

49% 47%

Manufacturing Industry 21st Century Total Ahead / Total Behind

18-29 65/33

Total Optimistic Total Pessimistic0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%69%

29%

Overall, are you optimistic or pessimistic that the U.S. can successfully grow its manufacturing industry to remain the international leader in manufacturing?

Grow ManufacturingTotal Optimistic /Total Pessimistic

Black 79/20

Hispanic 80/17

Non-College 72/26

<$30,000 76/22

Democrats 80/17

17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

62%51%

34%34%45%

61%

Total Agree Total Disagree

Americans are most willing to trade more government involvement for a competitive advanced manufacturing sector.

I’d now like to read you a few statements that some people have made about American manufacturing. After I read each one, please tell me if you agree or disagree with this statement.

18

Traditional partisan attitudes about trade do not necessarily apply. Many Republicans support government action to support manufacturing and they do not favor a “hands off” approach.

Globalization & International Trade

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

58%

12% 12% 10%6%

Outsourcing is the prime suspect in the loss of American manufacturing jobs.

As you may know, according to the United Nations Statistical Division, the U.S. still leads the world in manufacturing, generating just over $1.8 trillion in economic output.  However, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the share of Americans who work in service-related jobs has been growing for decades and is now five times greater than those who work in manufacturing-related jobs. At the same time, the percentage of American workers employed in the manufacturing sector has decreased significantly over the past 30 years.

Which ONE of the following do you think is the principal reason for this decline?

Shifted Jobs Overseas for Cheaper Labor

Non-College 57%

College + 59%

Shifted Jobs Overseas for Cheaper Labor

<$30,000 54%

$30,000-$50,000 64%

$50,000-$75,000 60%

$75,000-$100,000 57%

$100,000 + 60%

20

Shifted Jobs Overseas for Cheaper Labor

Republicans 52%

Independents 55%

Democrats 65%

Frustration over the loss of these jobs is fueling Americans’ desire for cooperation on job creation.

Concern over job outsourcing is primarily concentrated among those looking to enter the job market.

How much do you worry that your employer could decide to relocate your job overseas to someone else in another country?

Employed Students Looking for work0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

14%

35%

50%

Concern Over Job OutsourcingPercent Worried “A lot” or “Some”

21

Just 21% prefer the U.S. take an “open market” approach to the international economy.

I would now like to read you three opinions on how government might handle American economic policy as it relates to the global economy. Please tell me which one comes closest to your opinion…

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40% 36%

32%

23%

35%38%

21%

U.S. Trade Policy

Aug-10 Dec-10

Support of “protectionism” continues to be more pronounced among Republicans with 42% supporting policies that inhibit foreign trade and investment.

22

Views on globalization and the impact of an inter-connected world economy are mixed.

Now I am going to read you two statements about international trade. After I read them, please tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view?

Which comes closer to your view… the development of better paying jobs in other countries is…

If you had to choose would you prefer…

When it comes to LEGAL immigration of skilled workers in fields like science and technology, do you think that the U.S…

Good for Economy Bad for Economy0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

43%52%

International Trade

Opportunity Threat0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

42%51%

High- Income Jobs Abroad

Increase Exports Reduce Imports0%

20%

40%

60%

80%55%

38%

Import / Export Policy

Beneficial Harmful0%

20%

40%

60%

80%56%

40%

Effect of Legal Skilled Im-migrants

Pro Globalization

Anti Globalization

23

The 2011 Washington Agenda

Americans are split on who should take the lead on the major issues facing the country.

President Obama Republicans in Congress0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

45% 44%

Who Should Take the Lead?

As you may know, Republicans won majority control of The House of Representatives in the November elections. Moving forward, who would you like to see take the lead on the major issues facing the country?

Who Should LeadPresident Obama / Republicans in Congress

Republicans 5/91

Independents 42/41

Democrats 84/9

25

The new Congress is expected to compromise with the Administration to get things done.

Compromise and work with Pres-ident Obama and Democrats to

get things done

Pursue their own agenda to get things done, including repealing the legislation and regulations

enacted by President Obama and Democrats

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%70%

25%

Preference for Republican Agenda

Would you prefer that Republicans in Congress…

Compromise / Own Agenda

Republicans 42/54

Independents 70/25

Democrats 94/4

26

Half of Americans prefer policies that deal directly with job creation.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

28%22% 19%

13% 11%

Republicans Independents Democrats

Repeal Healthcare

(36%)

Stimulus for job creation

(27%)

Stimulus for job creation

(45%)

New tax cuts for job

creation(21%)

New tax cuts for job

creation(23%)

New tax cuts for job

creation(22%)

Extend Bush for everyone

(19%)

Repeal Healthcare

(17%)

Reduce the deficit (13%)

Priorities that should be Addressed by Elected Officials

And which do you think should be the top priority you would like to see addressed by your elected officials in Washington, D.C.?

50%

27

January 2009