all wales quarterly economic survey · all wales quarterly economic survey results q3 20153 q...

ALL WALES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC SURVEY

RESULTS Q3 2015

3QCompiled and published by

CONTENTS

Contacts 2

Executive Summary 3

Background Information 4

UK Markets 6

Export Markets 8

Labour Force and Recruitment 10

Business Confidence 14

Infographic 20

To discuss the Quarterly Economic Survey in more detail please contact:

Keith Palmer, Group CEOT: 01633 242700 E: [email protected]

Elgan Morgan, International and Representation Manager T: 01633 242721E: [email protected]

South Wales Chamber of CommerceHead Office:Orion Suite, Enterprise WayNewport, NP20 2AQ

www.southwaleschamber.co.uk

Mid Wales Chamber of CommerceThe Business Unit, Coleg PowysLlanidloes RoadNewtown, SY16 4HU

www.midwaleschamber.co.uk

West Cheshire & North Wales Chamber of CommerceRiverside Innovation Centre1 Castle Drive, Chester, CH1 1SL

www.wcnwchamber.org.uk

The Welsh economy keeps growing with more businesses telling us that their sales and orders are increasing than decreasing. However the rate of growth, particularly in exports, has slowed and confidence, although still positive, has dipped in the last quarter.

Over the last few months we’ve been hit by a slowdown in the Chinese economy and a fall in demand for steel internationally. This is on top of struggling economies in the Eurozone and a strong pound making British products expensive. This has led to a fall in our export indicator.

There are however still many opportunities abroad and despite this concern about international markets, businesses have been coming to us at the Chambers of Commerce looking for advice on how to export for the first time. We, working with colleagues in Business Wales and others, are here to support businesses on their export journey.

The Welsh Government, along with UKTI, are holding an Explore Export event at the SWALEC Stadium on

Thursday 12 November. If you’re interested in attending the event or if you would like more information about the steps you need to take to start exporting, contact our team on 01633 242720.

Despite some concerns in the export market, our indicator for the UK market shows that sales have been increasing and are likely to continue to grow in the near future. This doesn’t come as a surprise; businesses are telling us that they are getting more custom enabling them to give their staff salary increases, meaning that people have more money to spend.

Sitting alongside this is the continued growth being shown in our employment indicators, with more businesses telling us that they plan on increasing their workforce than decreasing. Businesses are still reporting a high level of difficulty in recruiting staff however, with Chamber members telling us that a lack of appropriate skills amongst applicants being the main cause.

The Chambers of Commerce have been raising concern over skill levels for a while now and news over the

summer that the Welsh Government is changing the school curriculum in Wales is to be welcomed. However this and other government programmes will take time to filter through, especially as in some cases it takes an individual several years to gain qualifications. But there are things that businesses can do in the short term. They should be investing in training their staff, giving work experience to local school children and working with their local colleges and universities in designing courses which fulfil the needs of the business.

Although the indicators are showing growth we shouldn’t take this for granted.

Our confidence indicators are showing a dip – businesses are still confident, just not as confident that their profits and turnover will increase as they have been previously. On the surface this doesn’t tally with what the UK market indicators are telling us but pressures around costs, wage rises and the difficulty in recruitment as well as the knock-on effect of a slowdown in international markets is starting to have an effect.

There is also a rise in the number of businesses telling us that they are planning on increasing their prices in the next quarter. Inflation has been low for a long-time and this could be an indication that this may soon change.

As we look towards the end of 2015, I would encourage businesses to look at markets that they haven’t been selling to previously, whether that be another part of the world or to another part of the UK, and continue to invest in their staff by supporting them to develop and gain more skills.

Keith Palmer Group CEO, South & Mid Wales Chambers of Commerce

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

NUMBER OF EMPLOYEESLOCATION OF BUSINESSES

10.8%

22.5%

15.4%15.0%

11.4%

9.8%

9.2%

5.9%

Bridgend / Vale of Glamorgan

Cardiff

Carms / Pembs

Newport / Torfaen / Mon / Bl Gwent

Powys / Ceredigion

RCT / Caerphilly / Merthyr

Swansea / Neath Port Talbot

North Wales

49.2%

13.4%

17.9%

13.4%

1.1%

2.2%

2.8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

0-9

10-19

20-49

50-199

200-249

250-499

500+

MAIN BUSINESS ACTIVITY

5.2%

5.2%

4.9%

8.5%

3.9%

3.9%

1.3%

10.5%

4.6%

23.2%

5.9%

22.9%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Construction

Hotels / Catering

Transport / Distribution

Retailing / Wholesaling

Public / Voluntary SectorServices

Manufacture Electronic / IT

Production Raw Materials /Agri

Manufacture of other Goods

Marketing / Media

Professional Services

Consumer services

Other

UK MARKET - SALES

Wales

Regional Breakdown - Cardiff Capital City Region

Regional Breakdown -Swansea Bay City Region

Regional Breakdown - Mid WalesRegional Breakdown - North Wales

49.7%

37.3%

13.1%

Increased Remained Constant Decreased

Summary

Sales to UK based customers continue to grow at a steady pace, with the number of businesses saying that their sales are increasing remaining at over 40%, while the number saying that their sales are decreasing has fallen slightly.

This shows that trade within the UK is quite buoyant and that the recovery we’ve recently experienced is continuing.

13.1% 13.4% 12.7% 9.8% 13.3% 20.1% 17.1%

37.3% 36.4% 42.7% 43.4% 40.9%38.5% 41.4%

49.7% 50.2% 44.6% 46.8% 45.8% 41.4% 41.4%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


10.5% 11.2% 13.3% 13.7% 15.9% 22.1% 14.5%

35.5% 33.5%42.2% 39.5% 35.2%

38.4%41.0%

53.9% 55.3%44.5% 46.8% 48.9%

39.5% 44.6%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


16.4% 16.2% 13.3%4.3% 12.7% 20.0% 24.2%

40.1% 38.7% 38.6%47.3%

47.6% 34.5%37.9%

43.5% 45.0% 48.2% 48.4%39.7% 45.5% 37.9%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


15.7%4.5% 12.0% 12.9%

3.6%

26.7%16.7%

35.3% 54.5% 48.0% 45.2%46.4%

40.0% 53.3%

49.0% 40.9% 40.0% 41.9% 50.0%33.3% 30.0%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


14.3% 22.2%8.3% 5.9%

16.7%0.0%

16.7%

40.5% 29.6% 54.2%47.1%

37.5%53.8%

38.9%

45.2% 48.1%37.5%

47.1% 45.8% 46.2% 44.4%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


UK MARKET - ORDERS

49.7%

37.3%

13.1%


Wales




Summary

There’s positive news for trade within the UK in the future too, with a slight improvement in the number of businesses reporting an increase in orders and a slight decrease in the number reporting a reduction.

This gives a positive outlook for the Welsh economy over the next few months.

14.1% 13.4% 12.1% 10.0% 15.1% 18.9% 17.2%

38.5% 39.7% 46.0% 45.0%44.1%

45.3% 45.5%

47.4% 46.9% 41.8% 45.0% 40.9% 35.8% 37.3%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


12.2% 11.0% 11.2% 16.7% 16.7% 23.5%14.5%

37.3% 33.8%44.8% 40.4% 42.9%

40.7%46.7%

50.5% 55.2%44.0% 43.0% 40.5% 35.8% 38.8%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


15.9% 19.6% 14.5%3.3%

15.8% 15.4%25.4%

41.4%46.1%

43.4%48.9%

49.1% 44.2%40.3%

42.7% 34.3% 42.1% 47.8%35.1% 40.4% 34.3%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


22.9%

0.0%13.0% 10.3% 8.3%

23.1% 17.2%

31.3%

47.6%34.8% 48.3%

37.5%

53.8%51.7%

45.8% 52.4% 52.2%41.4%

54.2%

23.1% 31.0%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


10.0% 12.5% 8.3% 0.0%14.3%

0.0%11.1%

45.0% 41.7%70.8%

50.0%

42.9% 69.2% 44.4%

45.0% 45.8%

20.8%

50.0% 42.9%30.8%

44.4%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


EXPORT MARKET - SALES

49.7%

37.3%

13.1%


Wales




Summary

The number of businesses reporting that they exported more this quarter than last quarter has fallen.

However more businesses experienced increased export sales, than decreased.

14.8% 11.6%22.0% 22.6%

14.0% 15.9%27.1%

44.9%42.9%

37.0%26.9%

34.9%42.9%

37.4%

40.3% 45.5% 41.0%50.5% 51.2%

41.3% 35.5%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


16.2% 16.9%25.9% 28.9%

15.4% 17.6% 24.2%

44.8% 35.6%33.3% 22.2% 41.0% 41.2%

38.7%

39.0% 47.5% 40.7% 48.9% 43.6% 41.2% 37.1%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


18.2%6.5%

27.3%14.8%

25.0%12.5%

44.4%

49.1% 71.0% 36.4%

29.6%30.0%

37.5%

16.7%

32.7%22.6%

36.4%55.6%

45.0% 50.0%38.9%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


4.2% 0.0% 7.7%23.1%

7.1%

33.3% 25.0%37.5%

10.0%

53.8%38.5%

35.7%

66.7%

50.0%

58.3%

90.0%

38.5% 38.5%57.1%

0.0%

25.0%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


8.3% 8.3% 9.1% 12.5%0.0%

10.0% 18.2%

41.7% 33.3% 36.4% 25.0%

23.1%

50.0%45.5%

50.0% 58.3% 54.5% 62.5%76.9%

40.0% 36.4%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


EXPORT MARKET - ORDERS

49.7%

37.3%

13.1%


Wales




Summary

Looking to the future of exports, it is concerning that only marginally more businesses are reporting that their export orders are increasing than decreasing.

Businesses that have the ability to export should be looking at opening up new markets and selling to a number of countries to limit the effect of peaks and troughs in the economies of individual countries.

14.9% 16.0% 21.1% 24.1%14.3% 11.9%

29.6%

44.2% 40.6%41.1% 32.2%

35.1%50.8%

39.8%

40.9% 43.4% 37.8% 43.7% 50.6%37.3% 30.6%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


16.0% 17.2% 22.9%31.7%

19.4% 15.2%29.7%

45.0% 34.5%33.3%

24.4%33.3%

51.5%37.5%

39.0%48.3% 43.8% 43.9% 47.2%

33.3% 32.8%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


17.0% 21.4%30.0%

18.5% 11.8% 13.3%

41.2%

51.1%

64.3% 45.0%

37.0%41.2% 40.0%

29.4%

31.9%14.3%

25.0%44.4% 47.1% 46.7%

29.4%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


8.3% 0.0%9.1%

18.2% 16.7%0.0%

25.0%

33.3%

20.0%

54.5%45.5% 41.7%

100.0% 50.0%

58.3%

80.0%

36.4% 36.4% 41.7%

0.0%

25.0%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


10.0% 10.0% 9.1% 12.5%0.0% 0.0%

18.2%

30.0% 30.0%

54.5%37.5%

25.0%

55.6%

54.5%

60.0% 60.0%

36.4%50.0%

75.0%

44.4%27.3%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


LABOUR FORCE - LAST QUARTERChanges to the number of employees in the last three months.

49.7%

37.3%

13.1%


Wales




Summary

There was growth in employment over the last three months with over double the number of businesses reporting that their workforce increased compared to those that decreased.

However, with the number of businesses increasing their workforce falling and the number of businesses reducing their workforce getting larger, this implies that the rate of employment growth is slowing.

7.9% 11.2% 8.4% 7.9% 10.0% 11.6% 10.6%

64.6% 50.0% 56.5% 58.3% 61.1% 60.5% 61.2%

27.5%38.8% 35.1% 33.9% 28.9% 27.9% 28.2%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


12.7% 7.2% 3.5% 8.3% 12.7% 9.4% 15.3%

65.2%63.1%

61.2% 56.3% 55.6%49.1%

55.6%

22.1% 29.7% 35.3% 35.4% 31.7%41.5%

29.2%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


13.5% 8.7%0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% 3.1%

61.5%52.2% 69.2% 63.3% 57.1%

92.9%71.9%

25.0%39.1% 30.8% 36.7% 35.7%

7.1%25.0%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


9.3% 3.6% 8.3% 5.6% 8.3% 0.0%11.1%

69.8%

50.0%58.3%

44.4%58.3%

33.3%

61.1%

20.9%

46.4%33.3%

50.0%33.3%

66.7%

27.8%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


10.0% 9.0% 6.0% 7.0% 10.2% 9.1% 11.0%

64.9%54.5% 59.4% 57.2% 58.5% 57.6% 61.0%

25.2%36.4% 34.6% 35.8% 31.2% 33.3% 28.1%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


LABOUR FORCE - NEXT QUARTERExpected change to the number of employees over the next three months.

67.8%

24.0%

8.1%

Increase Remain Constant Decrease

Wales




Summary

Looking forward, we expect employment to continue to grow, with double the number of businesses reporting that they plan to increase their workforce than decrease over the next quarter.

But the rate of growth will be lower than we’ve seen in previous quarters – with a fall in the number of businesses reporting that they plan on increasing their staff numbers, and the highest number that we have seen over the last two years saying that they are planning on reducing their workforce.

5.1% 4.9% 6.4% 8.9% 6.8% 6.6% 13.1%

59.4% 61.4% 61.7% 61.3% 60.7% 61.1%60.1%

35.5% 33.7% 32.0% 29.9% 32.5% 32.3% 26.8%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


5.7% 4.7% 3.8% 8.7% 8.8% 4.7% 11.2%

57.9% 57.6% 55.0%60.6%

51.6% 62.8% 57.4%

36.4% 37.6% 41.2%30.7%

39.6% 32.6% 31.4%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


5.6% 5.5% 10.6% 4.2% 7.8% 9.1%18.1%

61.2% 64.5%74.1%

67.7% 67.2%54.5%

62.5%

33.1% 30.0%15.3%

28.1% 25.0%36.4%

19.4%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


3.8% 4.8% 0.0%20.0%

0.0%14.3% 12.5%

55.8%66.7% 73.1%

56.7%

75.0%

85.7%

65.6%

40.4%28.6% 26.9% 23.3% 25.0%

0.0%

21.9%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


0.0% 3.6%12.5% 16.7%

4.3% 0.0%11.1%

66.7% 67.9% 41.7% 38.9% 60.9%50.0%

66.7%

33.3% 28.6%45.8% 44.4%

34.8%50.0%

22.2%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


RECRUITMENTCompanies that have recruited in the last three months.

53.0%

47.0%

Yes No

Wales




Summary

Over half of Welsh businesses have tried to recruit during the last quarter. While this is down slightly from the previous quarter, it is consistent with what has been reported over the last year or so.

This indicates that the jobs market in Wales continues to be buoyant.

59.4%45.6%

54.9% 48.7% 42.5% 44.0% 47.6%

40.6%54.4%

45.1% 51.3% 57.5% 56.0% 52.4%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Yes No

57.2%42.9%

62.7%48.8% 40.7%

52.3%41.2%

42.8%57.1%

37.3%51.2% 59.3%

47.7%58.8%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Yes No

65.9%53.6% 48.2% 52.1% 43.8%

34.5%51.4%

34.1%46.4% 51.8% 47.9% 56.3%

65.5%48.6%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Yes No

53.8%34.8%

61.5%46.7% 42.9%

57.1% 59.4%

46.2%65.2%

38.5%53.3% 57.1%

42.9% 40.6%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Yes No

54.5%39.3% 37.5% 33.3%

45.8%

15.4%

72.2%

45.5%60.7% 62.5% 66.7%

54.2%

84.6%

27.8%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Yes No

RECRUITMENT EXPERIENCESCompanies that experienced difficulties in recruiting.

53.0%

47.0%

Yes No

Wales




Summary

Businesses are continuing to find it hard to recruit the right staff with almost two thirds reporting that they have had difficulty recruiting in the last quarter. Although this figure is down from last quarter, it is still much higher than it should be.

With businesses reporting that many applicants are lacking the skills needed, it may take some time to reverse this high number.

47.0% 46.0% 39.7% 36.0% 37.4%27.5% 35.3%

53.0% 54.0% 60.3% 64.0% 62.6%72.5% 64.7%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Yes No

50.4% 47.9%38.8% 40.6% 43.1%

34.1% 39.4%

49.6% 52.1%61.2% 59.4% 56.9%

65.9% 60.6%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Yes No

44.3% 41.2% 42.5% 40.0% 34.3%17.1%

26.5%

55.7% 58.8% 57.5% 60.0% 65.7%82.9%

73.5%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Yes No

33.3%

57.1%44.4%

6.7%

37.5%

60.0%41.7%

66.7%

42.9%55.6%

93.3%

62.5%

40.0%58.3%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Yes No

50.0%41.2% 33.3% 33.3%

23.1% 20.0%0.0%

50.0%58.8% 66.7% 66.7%

76.9% 80.0%100.0%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Yes No

CASHFLOWChanges to the business’ cashflow over the last three months.

28.4%

53.9%

17.7%

Improved Remained the Same Worsened

Wales




Summary

The number of businesses reporting that their cashflow improved over the last quarter remained the same as the previous quarter, but there was an increase in the amount of businesses reporting that their cashflow worsened.

17.7% 16.6% 15.6% 12.5%22.3% 18.9% 22.2%

53.9% 49.1% 51.2% 55.6%49.2%

46.5% 43.1%

28.4% 34.4% 33.2% 31.9% 28.5% 34.6% 34.7%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Improved Remained the same Worsened

15.3% 19.1% 14.3% 11.8%20.9% 22.9% 18.5%

53.5% 45.1% 50.0% 55.5%50.0% 44.6%

42.9%

31.2% 35.8% 35.7% 32.8% 29.1% 32.5% 38.7%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


19.9% 13.8% 17.9% 12.9%28.8%

15.7%29.2%

56.3%53.2% 44.9% 58.1%

49.2%

49.0%43.1%

23.9%33.0% 37.2% 29.0% 22.0%

35.3% 27.8%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


22.0% 13.6% 8.3% 14.3% 15.4% 15.4%25.8%

52.0%59.1% 75.0%

46.4% 38.5%53.8%

45.2%

26.0% 27.3%16.7%

39.3% 46.2%30.8% 29.0%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


40.0%

14.8% 22.7%11.8% 18.2%

8.3%23.5%

20.0%

48.1%

54.5%58.8%

59.1%

41.7%

41.2%

40.0% 37.0%22.7% 29.4% 22.7%

50.0%35.3%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


INVESTMENT - EQUIPMENTChanges to the amount of investment by companies in plant, machinery and equipment.

49.7%

37.3%

13.1%


Wales




Summary

One third of businesses are reporting that they intend to increase their investment in equipment, machinery and plant over the next quarter, indicating confidence.

However this figure is down from last quarter, and with an increase in the number of businesses reporting that they are planning on reducing their investment, we need to monitor this particular indicator closely.

2.0% 3.3% 4.5% 4.0% 4.7% 5.3% 10.3%

58.5% 53.3% 51.8% 56.6% 56.3% 53.3%57.3%

39.6% 43.5% 43.7% 39.4% 38.9% 41.3%32.4%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


1.4% 2.6% 3.2% 6.9% 8.4% 6.3% 11.0%

60.2% 55.8% 54.0% 53.4% 55.4% 58.2%58.9%

38.4% 41.6% 42.7% 39.7% 36.1% 35.4% 30.1%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


2.4% 4.8% 5.2% 1.1% 1.7% 6.3% 6.9%

55.7% 52.4% 46.8% 60.4% 59.3% 43.8%55.6%

41.9% 42.9% 48.1%38.5% 39.0%

50.0%37.5%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0%10.3%

59.6% 66.7%50.0%

67.9%61.5%

81.8% 62.1%

36.2% 33.3%50.0%

28.6%38.5%

18.2%27.6%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


0.0% 3.8%13.6%

0.0% 4.5% 0.0%17.6%

40.0% 30.8%

59.1%

37.5%45.5%

33.3%

41.2%

60.0% 65.4%

27.3%

62.5%50.0%

66.7%

41.2%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


INVESTMENT - TRAININGChanges to the amount of investment by companies in training their workforce.

49.7%

37.3%

13.1%


Wales




Summary

The fall in the number of businesses reporting that they plan on increasing the amount they spend on training their staff is worrying. Businesses have been reporting consistently over the last year that they are having difficulty recruiting the right staff, naming skills as a main reason for this difficulty.

Investment in training is needed to plug the skills gap and ensure that the workforce is able to do the job.

1.8% 3.5% 2.0% 4.6% 4.8% 3.1% 8.5%

54.2% 44.7% 54.1% 57.1% 50.5% 53.5%63.0%

44.0% 51.8% 43.9% 38.3% 44.7% 43.4%28.5%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


1.4% 3.1% 1.6% 7.3% 6.0% 4.8% 8.0%

53.1%40.3% 47.6%

53.7%47.0% 57.8%

62.6%

45.6%56.6% 50.8%

39.0% 47.0%37.3% 29.4%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


1.8% 2.9% 2.7% 1.1% 1.8% 0.0%8.5%

54.2% 53.3% 58.1% 60.2% 52.6% 49.0%

66.2%

44.0% 43.8% 39.2% 38.7% 45.6% 51.0%

25.4%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


4.3% 4.5% 0.0% 3.6% 3.8% 7.7% 13.3%

58.7% 59.1% 70.8% 67.9%53.8%

61.5% 53.3%

37.0% 36.4% 29.2% 28.6%42.3%

30.8% 33.3%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


0.0% 8.0% 4.5% 5.9% 9.1%0.0% 5.9%

80.0%

24.0%

59.1%47.1%

54.5%

33.3%

70.6%

20.0%

68.0%

36.4%47.1%

36.4%

66.7%

23.5%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


TURNOVER EXPECTATIONS - NEXT 12 MONTHS

67.8%

24.0%

8.1%


Wales




Summary

The majority of Welsh businesses are confident that their turnover will increase over the next year.

However we are seeing a fall in this confidence, with 15% fewer reporting that they expect their turnover to increase than did a year ago.

This is another indicator to monitor closely in the next quarter’s survey.

8.1% 7.7% 5.3% 5.5% 10.1% 7.0% 13.5%

24.0% 23.2% 24.4% 24.6%25.0% 28.0%

30.2%

67.8% 69.1% 70.3% 69.9% 64.9% 65.0%56.3%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


6.5% 7.6% 4.8% 6.7% 9.8% 9.6% 11.3%

21.8% 15.9% 17.7% 20.2%23.2% 28.9% 32.1%

71.8% 76.4% 77.4% 73.1% 67.1% 61.4% 56.5%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


8.2% 9.3% 7.7% 4.3% 11.9% 6.0%20.5%

30.6% 32.7% 32.1% 32.6%28.8%

22.0%

28.8%

61.2% 57.9% 60.3% 63.0% 59.3%72.0%

50.7%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


17.0%0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0%

12.9%

14.9%

27.3% 27.3% 25.0% 24.0%

66.7%32.3%

68.1% 72.7% 72.7% 71.4% 76.0%

33.3%

54.8%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


20.0%8.0% 4.5% 5.9%

18.2%0.0% 6.3%

20.0%24.0% 31.8%

11.8%

22.7%

8.3%12.5%

60.0% 68.0% 63.6%82.4%

59.1%

91.7%81.3%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


PROFITABILITY EXPECTATIONS - NEXT 12 MONTHS

67.8%

24.0%

8.1%


Wales




Summary

The number of Welsh businesses expecting their profits to increase over the next year has fallen below 50% for the first time in several surveys. This is matched with almost a quarter of businesses saying that they expect their profits to fall over the next year.

This is worrying as the ability to make a profit is a driving force of many other decisions in business.

10.3% 9.4% 8.2% 9.4% 11.7% 13.5%23.7%

28.7% 31.4% 32.7% 28.2% 31.4% 33.3%30.4%

61.0% 59.2% 59.2% 62.4% 56.9% 53.2% 45.9%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


8.5% 7.1% 8.1% 5.9% 9.8% 13.3% 20.6%

25.5% 27.6% 24.2% 24.4%26.8%

37.3%31.5%

66.0% 65.4% 67.7% 69.7% 63.4%49.4% 47.9%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


10.6% 13.1% 7.8% 9.9% 11.9% 12.2%32.4%

35.3% 36.4% 42.9% 34.1% 32.2% 28.6%

23.9%

54.1% 50.5% 49.4% 56.0% 55.9% 59.2%43.7%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


19.1%4.8% 0.0%

14.3% 8.0%16.7% 23.3%

25.5%33.3%

31.8%

28.6%32.0%

41.7%43.3%

55.3% 61.9% 68.2%57.1% 60.0%

41.7% 33.3%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


20.0% 12.0% 18.2% 23.5% 22.7% 16.7% 17.6%

20.0% 32.0%

45.5%23.5%

45.5%

16.7%23.5%

60.0% 56.0%36.4%

52.9%

31.8%

66.7% 58.8%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


PRICE/COST EXPECTATIONS - NEXT 12 MONTHS

67.8%

24.0%

8.1%


Wales




Summary

There has been an increase in the number of businesses expecting to raise their prices over the next quarter.

Inflation has been low for a long time but with more businesses indicating that they plan on raising prices we could be seeing the start of an increase in inflation.

4.1% 4.0% 2.1% 3.9% 3.1% 3.8% 6.7%

72.7% 75.6% 80.3% 70.5% 75.8% 73.4% 63.7%

23.1% 20.4% 17.6% 25.6% 21.1% 22.8% 29.6%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


4.2% 4.1% 0.0% 4.2% 3.5% 4.9% 4.8%

74.2% 72.8% 81.0% 65.8%78.8% 76.8%

64.3%

21.6% 23.1% 19.0%30.0%

17.6% 18.3%31.0%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


5.1% 3.7% 3.8% 3.2% 3.3% 3.8% 9.9%

70.9% 77.1% 79.7% 75.3% 76.7%63.5% 59.2%

24.0% 19.3% 16.5% 21.5% 20.0%32.7% 31.0%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


2.0% 4.5% 12.5% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0%13.3%

72.5%77.3% 62.5%

59.3% 69.2%

92.3% 60.0%

25.5% 18.2% 25.0% 33.3% 30.8%

7.7%26.7%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


2.3% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0%

69.8%85.7% 95.7% 94.4%

69.6% 72.7%86.7%

27.9%10.7% 4.3% 5.6%

26.1% 27.3%13.3%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015


Eq

uipm

ent 32.4

%

(-8.9

pts)

Training

28.5%

(-14

.9 p

ts)

UK

: sales 4

1.4%

(no chang

e)o

rders 37.3%

(+1.5p

ts)

Exp

orts:

sales 35.5% (-5.8

pts)

ord

ers 30.6

% (-6

.7pts)

The num

ber o

f Welsh

businesses exp

ecting their

pro

fits to

increase in the next year has fallen b

elow

50%

.

45.9

% (-7.3p

ts)

Acco

rding

to the latest

Quarterly E

cono

mic Survey fro

m the

Cham

bers o

f Co

mm

erce in Wales:

This Q

uarterly Eco

nom

ic Survey relates to

the perio

d b

etween July and

Sep

temb

er 2015.

The num

ber o

f Welsh b

usinesses rep

orting

imp

roving U

K sales and

o

rders rem

ains constant.

The num

ber o

f Welsh b

usinesses rep

orting

imp

roving overseas

sales and o

rders co

ntinues to fall.

Plans fo

r increased investm

ent

all wales quarterly economic survey · all wales quarterly economic survey results q3 20153 q...

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