alicia bárcena executive secretary economic commission for
TRANSCRIPT
Alicia BárcenaExecutive SecretaryEconomic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean
Dialogue with the Second CommitteeNew York, 3 November 2010
The policies pursued since the 1980s did not produce the rapid, sustained economic growth
that was expected…LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GDP GROWTH COMPARED WITH TOTAL GDP
OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND THE WORLD(Annual rates of variation)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures and World Bank, World Development Indicators [online database].
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Latin America and the Caribbean Developing countries World
LATIN AMERICA (SELECTED COUNTRIES) AND THE UNITED STATES: PRODUCTIVITY
AND BREAKDOWN OF INDUSTRIAL VALUE ADDED
(Percentages of industrial GDP and 1985 dollars)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Industrial Performance Analysis Program (PADI), on the basis of official figures.
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
020 0000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 160 000 180 000 200 000
Engineering-intensive sectors Resource-intensive sectors Labour-intensive sectors
Latin America1990
Latin America2007
United States1990
United States2007
… Nor they worked towards closing the productivity gaps prevailing in the countries of the region, both
domestically and with the United States
In terms of poverty, the lost decade of the 1980s was followed by a difficult 1990s and a new
century with notable achievementsLATIN AMERICA: POVERTY RATES, 1980-2008
(Percentages)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information.
40.5
48.3
44.3
33
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
Po
verty rate
The lost decade The difficult 1990s Achievements
The excellent external conditions prevailing in the period 2003-2008 strongly contributed to the historical
achievement of growing with external-account surpluses and improved public finances
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: PER CAPITA GDP GROWTH RATE, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE AND OVERALL FISCAL BALANCE
(In annual growth rates and percentages of GDP)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.
Main features and achievements in 2003-2008
• Three simultaneous macroeconomic developments: – Sound fiscal policies and a better public debt profile – More flexible exchange rates and unprecedentedly high
international reserves (+150% between 2003 and 2008) – A regional current-account surplus with economic growth
• Ready access to external financing • Increase in trade (I + X) (value: 138%/volume: 49%) • Terms of trade improved by 25% in the region• Per capita GDP grew by more than 3% per year for five
consecutive years • Unemployment diminished from 11% to 7.3% with job
quality• Poverty rates fell by 11 percentage points (from 44% to
33%)
Nevertheless, the boom in commodity prices has led to the “reprimarization” of the region’s
export structure
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: STRUCTURE OF WORLDWIDE EXPORTS SINCE THE EARLY 1980s(Percentages of the regional total)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ELCAC), on the basis of United Nations COMTRADE database.
LATIN AMERICA (18 COUNTRIES): GINI INDEX, AROUND 1990, 2002 AND 2008 a
Economic growth and improvements in income distribution were powerful allies in combating poverty…
0.70
0.65
0.60
0.55
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55
1990
0.60 0.65 0.70
AR
CR
PY
ECVE
SVAL
BOCL
BR
HN
CO
GT
NI
PA
MX
UY
2002
Countries in which inequality increased
Countries in which inequality decreased
0.70
0.65
0.60
0.55
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55
2002
0.60 0.65 0.70
AR
CR
PY
EC
VE
SV ALBO
CL
BRHNCOGT
NI
PA
MX
UY
2008
Countries in which inequality decreased
Countries in which inequality increased
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of special tabulations of household surveys conducted in the respective countriesa Urban areas.
Number of persons of inactive age per 100 persons of active age:
(0-14) + (60 +) / (15-59)
Sharp fall:Easy yield from the demographic dividend(1970-2010/2015)
Stabilization at low levels:The dividend persists, but its activation depends on other factors(2010/2015-2021)
Beginning of the end of the demographic dividend:The dependency rate begins to rise2021-
50
60
70
80
90
100
… so, too, was the sharp fall in the demographic dependency rate at the regional level
For the first time in the history of the region there were improvements in equality
• Besides growth, the decrease in poverty rates in the region was also stimulated by improvements in income distribution
• It is the first time in the history of the region that there are improvements in equality indicators
• The Gini Index improved between 3% and 10% in 10 out of 20 countries
• Income in poor households improved 20% (equalize to grow)
The backslide in poverty indicators in 2009 did not wipe out the substantial gains of the past six
years, but it did slow the rate of reduction
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: POVERTY AND EXTREME POVERTY, 1980 – 2009 a
(Percentages and millions of persons)
Percentages Millions of persons
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of special tabulations of household surveys conducted in the respective countries. a Estimate for 18 countries of the region plus Haiti, The figures shown above the bars represent the percentage and total number of poor (indigent plus non-indigent poor).
18.622.5
18.5 19.413.3
12.6 12.9 13.7
40.5
48.343.8 44.0
36.334.1 33.0 34.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980 1990 1999 2002 2006 2007 2008 2009
Indigent Non-indigent poor
62
93 89 97 7168 71 76
136
200 211221
193 184 180 189
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1980 1990 1999 2002 2006 2007 2008 2009
Indigent Non-indigent poor
The speed of recovery in this crisis was faster compared with other crises
LATIN AMERICA: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN CONSTANT US DOLLARS FROM 2000
(Rates of change, with seasonal adjustments)
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
1994-1995_(II/1995) 1998-2000_(IV/1998)2001-2002_(III/2001) 2008-2009_(I/2009)
QUARTERS
• The previous exceptional period of prosperity created a larger space for the implementation of public policies, with the exception of the Caribbean
– Monetary and financial policy– Fiscal policy– Trade policy– Labour policy
• Trade is increasing• Terms of trade are improving• Tourism is recovering and
Remittances begin to increase again
• The region returned to the international financial markets
• Private sector expenditure is recovering
• Private consumption is pushed up by increased employmentSource: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on
the basis of official information.
Latin America and the Caribbean will grow above 5.6% in 2010
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GDP GROWTH, 2010 a
(Percentages)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information.a Forecasts.
Why time for equality?
• The crisis has produced questions about the dominant model, creating a turning point —and thus an opportunity to chart a new course
• That model had been associated with two decades of high wealth concentration
• The challenge at this juncture is to achieve greater equality
• For the region, this means facing up to its historical and more recent liabilities:– Worst income distribution in the world– Increasingly heterogeneous production patterns– Segmentation of the labour market and social protection– Racial, ethnic and gender discrimination – Asymmetrical vulnerability to climate change
Social equality and economic growth are not mutually exclusive
• Growth needs equality; equality needs growthWith macroeconomic conditions that mitigate
volatility, stimulate productivity and favour inclusion With production patterns that close internal and
external gaps• Promoting equality by building human skills and
actively redressing disparitiesUniversalizing rights and social benefitsFostering inclusion through the labour marketAchieving territorial convergence
• With a smarter and stronger State in order to be able to redistribute, regulate and supervise
A development agenda based on six pillars
• Macroeconomic policy for inclusive development to mitigate volatility, stimulate productivity and favour inclusion
• Overcoming structural heterogeneity and productivity gaps through more innovation, dissemination of knowledge and support for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)
• Overcoming territorial disparities affecting productive, institutional and social development capacities and hindering national production linkages
• Creating more and better employment to improve equality of opportunities and social inclusion
• Closing social gaps through a steady increase in social spending and stronger social institutions
• Building consensus around social and fiscal covenants and a new role for the State
The fiscal covenant: a sine qua non• Never before had the region so many democratically elected
governments and for such a long period of time • Democracy is ultimately the reflection of the decisions of the
citizens in terms of which public goods should be provided to the population, in which manner and magnitude
• A fiscal covenant is essential in order to enhance the State’s capacity to redistribute resources and play a more active role in promoting equality and production convergence: – There is significant scope for promoting and strengthening the
redistributive role of the State, as regards both – Social expenditure and – The collection of revenue to finance it (tax structure)
New equation:State-market-society
• The public sphere as a forum for collective interests and not simply for State or national matters
• Political agreements for a new social and intergenerational covenant, with specific responsibilities and accountability systems
• Consolidation of a culture of collective development based on tolerance of difference and diversity
• Strategic internally defined long-term vision that promotes covenants between the stakeholders in production
• Policies of State —not only of the current government or administration—channelled through democratic institutions