albania economy and banking system by seyhan pencapligil member of aab executive committee budapest,...

ALBANIAEconomy and

Banking Systemby

Seyhan PENCAPLIGILMember of AAB Executive Committee

Budapest, 7-9 October 2008

ALBANIAN ASSOCIATION OF BANKSSHOQATA SHQIPTARE E BANKAVE

ALBANIAN ASSOCIATION OF BANKS

SHOQATA SHQIPTARE E BANKAVE

ALBANIAN ECONOMY

ALBANIA - Located in Southeastern Europe (Western Balkans)

Economic Policy Framework

Open Market Economy,

No restrictions on profit and capital repatriation,

No exchange rate restriction, floating exchange rate regime,

Albania signed its Stabilization & Association Agreement with the European Union, the first formal step to eventual EU membership (12 June 2006).



ALBANIAMain Economic Features &

Indicators

Macroeconomic performance of the Albanian economy has been good overall, with sustained growth and low inflation.

Annual economic growth has been around 6% during the last 5 years; 6% in 2007.

Domestic demand mainly driven by migrant remittances (EUR 947 million during 2007) which have significant impact on fiscal revenues and expenditures, as well as by other external current transfers, and rapidly expanding financial intermediation & credit.

Services, agriculture and industry share were respectively: 55,3%, 19,5% and 11.0% (2007).




Indicators (2)

EU is the main trading partner: 83.1% of exports and 59.8% of imports. SEE is the second trading partner: 12.4% of exports and 24.8% of imports.

Exports and imports (2007) reached EUR 786 million and EUR 3,04 billion – Net importer

…but more than 92% of the current account financed by remittances.

Foreign Direct Investments reached EUR 463 million (Dec.07).

Foreign reserves (Dec.07) were more than EUR 1.5 billion, covering 4 months of imports of goods and services.




Indicators (3)



Key economic figures 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Population: 3.2 mn GDP (EUR bn) 6.0 6.0 6.7 7.28 8.04 GDP growth (% yoy) 5.8 6.2 5.5 5.0 6.0 GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) 4,250 4,640 4,860 6,224 n/a Industrial output (% yoy) 3.0 3.1 3.1 5.0 5.75 Unemployment rate (avg, %) 15.0 14.6 14.2 13.8 13.2 Inflation rate (% yoy) 3.3 2.2 2.0 2.5 2.9 Gen. budget balance (% of GDP) (4.5) (5.1) (3.6) (3.1) (3.4) C/A balance (% of GDP) (7.9) (5.6) (7.7) (7.2) (10.0) Public debt (% of GDP) 61.7 56.6 56.7 55.9 37.50 Gross external debt (% of GDP) 20.7 17.8 16.8 17.2 14.4 Official FX-Reserves (EUR bn) 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.36 1.50 ALL/EUR, avg 137.5 127.7 124.2 123.1 123.60 ALL/USD, avg 121.9 102.8 99.8 98.1 90.40

ALBANIAMacroeconomic

Environment

POLICIES

Upward tendency of consumer prices during 2007. Inflation nearing 3 %.

Fiscal PolicyPrudential implementation of fiscal policies, by observing the planned parameters of fiscal indicators, has not transmitted excessive inflationary pressures and has contributed to maintaining price stability. Flat tax rate (10%) introduced since July 2007; labor tax (social insurance) to be cut to 15% by January 2009.

Monetary PolicyMonetary policy of the Bank of Albania has generally had a neutral stance, but following the inflationary pressures during 2007, BoA has taken prudent measures to put reins of inflation ans bring it within 2-4% target. Lending to the economy has been the main source of monetary expansion during 2007 and H1 2008.



Albanian economy experienced relatively higher growth than other transition.

With the exception of 1997 (following the collapse of the pyramid schemes), Albania has consistently outperformedor be in line with ecnomic growth of CEE countries.




Environment

Source: IMF

Source: IMF


Environment

Economic GrowthContinuous and sustainable economic growth (5-6% annually).

Price Stability Inflation is one the lowest within SEE countries (ranging between 2-4%).



Economic Growth Rate 2001-2007

6

5

5.56.2

5.86.5

4.7

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

in %

I nflation rate 2001 - J un.2008

4

2.92.52

2.2

3.33.5

1.70

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun.2008

Year

in %

Income & employment

GDP growth has enabled rise of income per capita beyond USD 3,400 per year, which, however, remains among the lowest figures in the region.

Notwithstanding the ongoing GDP growth in years, employment performance reflects a moderate behavior.

Unemployment rate reduction continues to be not significant, either in absolute value or in relative terms (Unemployment rate for 2007: 13.2%) .




Environment

Remittances

Albania’s receipts from workers’ remittances are, relative to GDP, among the highest in the world.

Remittances are considerably largerthan exports (1.19 times – Dec.07) and FDI (2.05 times – Dec.07).

Remittances have significantly lowered the current account deficit and helped Albania build a comfortable level of external reserves.

Although the bulk of remittances is still sent through informal channels, the importance of the formal channel has being increased in recent years.




Environment

ALBANIAN BANKING SYSTEM




Brief History

GenesisThe establishment of Imperial Ottoman Bank branch (1863) in Albanian territories.

Central bankingEstablishment of the National Bank of Albania, jointly with Italian and Austrian banking groups, 4 October 1913.

Mixed Central & Commercial BankingEstablishment of National Bank of Albania (NBoA), 02 September 1925.

Communist eraNBoA was nationalized in 13 January 1945 and the Albanian State Bank (ASB) was established, with both functions as central & commercial bank. ALBANIAN ASSOCIATION OF BANKS

SHOQATA SHQIPTARE E BANKAVE


Market EconomyTwo-tier banking system introduced and Bank of Albania established as the central bank of the Republic of Albania (1992).

To dateAlbanian banking system has 16 commercial banks (from 01.01.2008 -).




Brief History

Universal banking system,

The dominant sector within Albanian financial system, managing more than 95.5% of total financial assets,

Mainly foreign-owned (14 out of 16 banks are foreign-owned),

Some big International names entered Albanian banking system during 2007:

- Intesa SanPaoloIMI bought American Bank of Albania and Italian-Albanian Bank (both banks were merged and by 01.01.08 operate under American Bank of Albania trademark);- Société Générale bought 75.01% of Popular Bank.

Almost all privately-owned (some minor state shareholdings),

A highly concentrated banking system; top five banks have ashare of ~ 73% of total assets (Jun.08).




Main Features


Main Features

Continuous institutional expansion and development…

Other non-bank financial institutions


ALBANIAN ASSOCIATION OF BANKS[2] Subjects licensed by Financial Supervision Authority, except for Leasing Companies.

[1] Subjects licensed by Bank of Albania.

No Subjects1 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun.08

1 Banks and branches of foreign banks 13 14 15 16 17 17 17 16

2 Non-bank financial institutions 4 5 7 7 7 5 6 6

3 Foreign exchange bureaus 38 58 58 54 58 60 112 112

4 Save & loan associations 113 131 130 131 125 130 130

5 Unions of save & loan associations 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

No Subjects2 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun.08

1 Insurance Companies 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10

2 Pension Funds 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3

3 Leasing Companies 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4


Main Features

More coverage with banking services…



2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun.08

Number of employees 2,816 3,479 4,263 5,206 5,851 Number of outlets 188 250 292 392 431

Number of employees per: - bank 176 217 251 306 366 - bank unit 14 13 15 13 14 Number of residents per: - bank 194,971 184,410 188,235 186,235 197,712 - bank unit 16,593 12,539 10,958 8,077 7,340 - bank employee 1,108 901 751 608 541


Main IndicatorsPerformance of total

assets



Steady growth of banking assets…

Indicator Dec ‘02 Dec ‘03 Dec ‘04 Dec ‘05 Dec ‘06 Dec ‘07 Jul ‘08

Total assets (mln EUR) 2,420.1 2,486.2 3,375.1 4,050.9 5,071.5 6,100 6,690 In % of GDP 51.6 50.2 51.9 59.5 69.4 75.9 81.3

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

mln

EU

R

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jul.2008Year

Banking system assets vs. GDP 2001 - J ul.2008

Banking assets GDP

Asset structure (in %) 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun. 08

Interbank & Treasury Operations

74 60 51.5 39.4 35.6

Credit Outstanding 17 26 39.6 39.1 42.7

Securities Operations 7 12 35.5 17.9 18.9

Fixed Assets 2 2 1.5 1.5 1.6


Main IndicatorsDeposits’ growth

Continuous deposit growth – among the highest in SEE countries.



2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jul.08

Total Deposits (mln EUR) 2,164.0 2,061.3 2,124.0 2,974.6 3,569.5 4,151.1 4,948.7 5,382.0 in % of GDP 44.3 45.8 44.1 48.4 51.2 57.0 61.5 65.7

Retail Deposits (mln EUR) 1,229.5 1,137.7 1,106.5 2,581.0 3,069.3 3,343.4 3,984.8 4,548.5 in % of GDP 25.1 25.3 23.0 42.0 44.0 46 49.6 55.60

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000m

ln E

UR

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jul. 2008Year

Deposits vs. GDP 2001 - J ul.2008

R etail deposits Total deposits GDP

Deposits' Composition 2001 - 2007

8.7

7.7

6

9.4

18.2

16.5

13.1

59

60.2

63.4

59.2

46.3

45

44.3

32.3

32.2

30.6

31.4

35.5

38.5

42.6

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

in %

Demand Deposits in AL L Time Deposits in AL L FX Deposits


Main Indicators

Credit performance

Experiencing an extended credit boom, but credit ratios still low compared to EU and SEE standards.



2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jul.08

Credit to Economy (mln EUR) 227.0 275.5 340.9 552.4 1,042.2 1,553.3 2,401.5 2,903.7 in % to GDP 4.6 5.7 6.8 8.4 14.6 21.3 30.2 35.2 in % to total assets 9.2 11.5 13.7 16.9 25.1 31.3 35.8 43.4 Credit/ deposit ratio 10.6 13.5 15.7 19.0 28.5 37.4 48.5 53.9

Credit to economy 2001 - J ul.2008

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

mln

EU

R

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

in %

Credit to Economy (mln EUR) in % to GDP

Credit/ Deposit ratio 2001 - J ul.2008

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jul.2008

in m

ln E

UR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

in %

Credit to Economy (mln EUR) Deposits Credit/ deposit ratio


Main IndicatorsPrivate Sector Loan Structure

Credit Quality

Still good credit quality despite credit boom; retail loans in expansion.



15% 85%

18% 82%

24% 76%

31% 69%

32% 68%

33% 67%

35% 65%

35% 65%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

J ul.2008

Loan structure 2001 - J ul.2008

retail corporate

Credit quality 2001- J ul.2008

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 J ul.2008

in %

classified loans

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jul.08 Corporate loans (mln EUR) 182 238 279 375 666 1,040 1,549 1,882

Retail loans (mln EUR) 31 54 89 168 309 513.3 852.5 1,021.7

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jul.08 Standard Loans 88.74 89.89 92.35 92.70 94.10 93.55 91.89 91.11 Classified Loans 11.26 10.11 7.65 7.30 5.90 6,45 8.11 8,89


Main Indicators



Average Interest Rates

Still high interest rate spreads in ALL.

in ALL 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun.08

Treasury Bills rate 12-M (in%) 10.5 12.62 9.56 8.11 6.91 7.89 8.41 8,19 Deposit Rate 12-M (in%) 7.80 9.30 7.62 5.99 5.57 5.46 6.33 6,65 Lending rate 12-M (in%) 11.9 16.00 10.52 13.73 12.6 11.16 13.55 11,40

Average ALL Interest Rates 2001 - J un.2008

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 J un.2008

in %

Treasury Bills rate 12-M Lending rate 12-M Deposit Rate 12-M

ALBANIAN BANKING SYSTEM Performance Indicators



Liquidity A highly liquid and solvent banking system

Capital adequacy Capital adequacy at satisfactory levels

Shareholders’ Equity

Well–capitalized banks

in mln EUR 2003 2004 2005 2006

1. Short-term Assets 1,101 1,212 1,339 1,616 2. Short-term Liabilities 1,027 1,253 1,674 2,184

1/ 2 in % 107 97 80 74

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun.08

Capital Adequacy Ratio in % 28.5 21.6 18.6 18.1 17.08 17.27

in mln EUR 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jul.08 Shareholders’ Equity 160 203 266 342.5 432.7 534




Performance Indicators

Profitability Still a highly profitable banking system

Return on main operations

Banks moving towards more profitable assets within the structure of earning assets.

in % 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jul.08

RoAA 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.36 1.57 1.40

RoAE 19.5 21.10 22.4 20.17 20.74 17.30

in % 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Interest income/ interest bearing average assets (1)

6.81 6.78 6.96 7.05 7.72

Interest expenses/ interest bearing average assets (2)

3.08 3.23 3.88 2.83 3.37

Net interest margin (NIM) [(1)-(2)] 3.73 3.55 3.08 4.22 4.35



ALBANIAN BANKING SYSTEM Exchange Rates

Average Exchange Rates

LEK (ALL) has been significantly appreciated against US$ during last years, and more stable against EURO.

Average Exchange Rates 2001-2007

80859095

100105110115120125130135140145150

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

in A

LL/F

X u

nit

EUR/ALL US$/ALL

in ALL 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

EUR/ ALL 128.5 132.4 137.5 127.7 124.2 123.1 121,78 US$/ ALL 143.5 140.1 121.9 102.8 99.8 98.1 83




Electronic Cards

Type 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jul.2008

Cashtronic + Debit Cards 33,288 223,227 343,711 603,384 695,697 Credit Cards + Prepaid Cards 806 2,686 9,754 12,991 16,879 Total 34,094 225,913 353,465 616,375 712,576 ATM 93 205 335 433 535

POS 155 779 1,183 1,776 2,880

26ALBANIAN ASSOCIATION OF BANKSSHOQATA SHQIPTARE E BANKAVE



Regulatory FrameworkLaw no.9662, dt.18.12.2006 “On Banks in the Republic of Albania”.

Main Licensing Requirements for Credit Institutions Banks shall be founded as joint stock companies. No discriminatory restrictions in terms of capital participation and formation.

The minimum amount of initial capital required, paid in cash, in respect of a bank, is not less than ALL 1 billion (for existing banks: ALL 850 million, but from March 1st, 2008 will be raised to ALL 1 billion);

Administrators having a business or professional history for the past 3 years,

The bank shall have at least two general executive directors.

Licensing Requirements for bank’s branch office Similar requirements as those required for Albanian banks.

Licensing

Preliminary approval or deny, within 3 months from the date of its receipt of the application for a license at Bank of Albania.

A bank or branch of foreign bank, which has been granted preliminary approval shall, within one year starting from the day of the preliminary approval, request in writing from the Bank of Albania granting of the final license.

Scope of activity

Universal banking principle.

The range of allowed banking & financial activities a bank may provide is subject of central bank’s approval (no capital quota qualifications).




Regulatory Framework

Prudential Banking Supervision

The supervision process is carrying out through the following instruments:

Periodic data reporting regarding banking financial indicators, through unified reporting system (reporting various balance and off-balance sheet items, as well as other indicators, as the supervision regulatory framework requires);

Ad hoc (special) reporting of various data;

On-site (full scale or targeted) examinations;

Off-site analysis.

CAMELS system is employed during on-site examinations (CAMELS rankings range from “1” – top performance- to “5” – poor performance).




Banking Supervision

Bank of Albania has already approved a set of all necessary and well-detailed rules and regulations, whose implementation help to ensure prudential banking supervision, as follows:

Regulation “On Capital Adequacy”,, Regulation “On the amount and fulfillment of minimum

initial capital of the allowed activities of banks and branches of foreign banks”,

Guideline “On Bank’s Regulatory Capital”, Regulation “On Market Risks”, Guideline “On the Liquidity of the Bank”, Regulation “On Significant Risk Management”, Regulation “On Open Foreign Positions”, Regulation “On Bank Relations with persons related to

bank”.




Banking Supervision (2)

Bank of Albania passed the Regulation “On Credit Register Operation”, (18.07.2007), which has entered into force by 01.01.2008.

Its purpose is to define the organization and operational rules of the Bank of Albania Credit Register, as an electronic database.




Credit Register

The Albanian payment system is run and regulated by Bank of Albania.

Postal service network, part of payment system also, mainly for money transfer ordered by individuals.

Bank of Albania is the operator of two payment systems:

AIPS (Albanian Interbank Payment System), a real-time gross settlement system (RTGS), which processes all interbank big value (equal to or exceeding ALL 1,000,000 (~USD 10,000)) payments (a SWIFT-based Y-copy service, “live” from January 2004).




Payment System

AECH (Albanian Electronic Clearing House) System, an automated clearing system, for processing

banks’ payments to their clients (small value payments; “live” from 2005). The system is fully integrated with AIPS and the net clearing position is settled daily in AIPS.

Both systems are owned by Bank of Albania.

On August 2008, BoA approved the new legal framework on IBAN usage (effective by May2009).

Direct Debiting regulation still in preparatory phase.




Payment System (2)

ALBANIAN BANKING SYSTEM Future Developments &

Challenges

Reduction of informal economy,

Further expansion of banking retail chains and products, more banking service coverage,

Introduction of new technology: e-banking,

Full implementation of IAS/IFRS, by January 2008,

Increasing the beneficial effects of remittances, by attempting to channel most of them through the financial system.



Contacting AAB

URL: www.aab.alE-mail: [email protected]



albania economy and banking system by seyhan pencapligil member of aab executive committee budapest,...

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