Modern and Past Climate Impact on Cryosphere/Water Resources in Central Asia

Vladimir and Elena Aizen University of Idaho, USA

Huaraz, Peru , July 11-24, 2013

1.   How  much  do  we  know  about  the  role  of  the  cryosphere  in  water                    resources    in  Central  Asia?    

2.        What  does  the  cryosphere  mean  for  local  communi>es?  

3.        Can  climate  and  cryosphere  change  cause  a  humanitarian  catastrophe                  in  Central  Asia?  

4.    Are  water  problems  in  Central  Asia    the  result  of  human  impact  or  the                    result  of  global  climate  change?  

-­‐  understand  the  complex  con>nental  modern  climate  and  paleoclimate  in  Eurasia                through    the  Holocene  and  beyond  

-­‐  advancing  the  climate  predictability  by  focusing  on  natural  variability,                anthropogenic  impacts  on  climate,  and  the  poten>al  for  abrupt  climate                change    via  major  climate  drivers  

-­‐  Predict  the  future  climate  and  water  resources  to  develop  adapta>on  and                mi>ga>on  prac>ces  to  support  socioeconomic  stability  in  Asia    

CliC WCAP-­‐SCAR  

HIGH  ELEVATIONS  

CADIP since 2005

JAPAN  Ins>tute  fo  Humanity  and  Nature  Na>onal  Ins>tute  of  Polar  Research  Chiba  University  Nagoya  University  

GERMANY  University  of  Heidelberg,  GFZ  ,BGC  Bavarian  Glaciological  CommiXee  

RUSSIA      Tomsk  State  University    Ins>tute  of  Geography  RAS  

KYRGYZSTAN  Central  Asian  Ins>tute  for  Applied  Geo-­‐Sciences  (CAIAG)  University  of  Central  Asia  (UCA)  

TAJIKISTAN  Ins>tute  of  Water  Problems,  Hydropower  and  Ecology  

UNESCO  

CADIP  collabora>ve  contributors  

CADIP  collaborators  

USA    lead  contributors  

University  of  Idaho  Glacio-­‐Climatological  Group  

         University  of  Maine  Climate  Change  Ins>tute  

University  of  California  Santa  Barbara  ICESS  

Partnerships  with  na>onal  and  interna>onal  programs  

•   Popula>on  grows  •   Agricultural  and  industrial  expansion/demand  

1900  –  15M  

2000  –  100M  

The  World  Endorheic  Drainage    Basins    

Central  Asia  is  the  World  largest  endorheic  basin  

.    

                                                 Altai    -­‐    2042  km2  ;  ~111  km3    [Dolgushin,  Niki/n,  Chinese  Glacier  Inventory]                                                      Pamir    -­‐    13424  km2  ;  ~1208  km3  [Sche/nninkov,  Dolgushin,  Chinese  Gl.  Inventory]                                                      Tien  Shan    -­‐          16,507  km2;    ~1814  km3    [Kuzmichenok,  Aizen,  Chinese  Gl.  Inventory]  

 

35%  of  the  total  glacier  covered  area  in  high  mountains  of  Asia  and  80%  of  all  glacierized  area  located  at  large,  high  elevated  mountain  massifs.  

Glacier  changes  in  Altai  and  Tien  Shan  

During  the  last  40    years  Tien  Shan  glaciers  lost  -­‐709  km2  of  the  total  area,  (-­‐7.1%)  in  average      

Source:    SRTM  2000,  Corona  KH-­‐9,  Landsat  TM,  ETM+,  Aster,  ALOS/PRISM)    

4%

 Altai  glaciers  lost  86  km2  (-­‐6.2%)  during  the  last  40  years  .      Leviy    Aktru  glacier  terminus  in  1952,  1966,  1975,  and  2006.      

T A

T I E N S H

A N

6% 8.3% 14%

Glacier  changes  in  Pamir  (Amu  Darya  R.  Basin)  

Area   of   glaciers   reduced   by   615   km2  (5%)   during   the   last   40-­‐years.   The  total   glacierized   area   has   changed  mainly   due   to   shrinkage   of   small  glaciers  with  an  area  of  <0.5-­‐  2.0  km2.  The   number   of   small   glaciers   in   the  1970s  was  456  while  in  2009  only  359.  The   number   of   medium   (2.1   –   10.0  km2)  and  large  glaciers  (over  100  km2)  remained  stable.  Large  glacier  massifs  reduced  to  less  than  2%.    

River  runoff  

Area  of  glaciers  in  2009:                          11,834  km2  

Area  of  glaciers  in  1973:                          12,449  km2  

Source:  SRTM  2000,  Corona  KH-­‐9  (1970th),  Landsat  TM,  ETM+,  Aster  (1980-­‐90th),  ALOS/PRISM  (2000th)      

2003    2002  1995  1977  1956  1943  1869  1800  

Petrov  Glacier,  Akshiirak  glacierized  massif  in  Tien  Shan  retreat  3  km  between  1869  (first  topographic  survey)  and  2003.  

Central  Pamir  (Fedchenko  Glacier,  Amu  Dar’ya    R.  Basin)  

1.1   km   Fedchenko   Glacier   terminus   retreated   since    1928  (map   in  background),    and  755  m  between  1958  (black)  and  2009  (blue,  GPS  survey).  Total  area  loss  2.91  km2  (-­‐0.5%).  Red  line  is  1980  geodeZc  survey.  

B  

(a)  surface  lowering  of  Fedchenko  glacier  from  1958  to  2009  along  the  center  profile  (90  m  near  the  terminus  and    20  m  at  4000  m  a.s.l.),  (b)  surface  (lower  image  KH-­‐9  and  SRTM  ),  (c)  Fedchenko  Glacier  surface  coved  by  moraine  debris    (25  km  from  terminus)  

C  

90  m  

Central  Pamir  (Fedchenko  Glacier,  Amu    Dar’ya    R.  Basin)  

The  volume  loss  5  km³  over  the  period  of  81  years  relates  to  an  iniZal  volume  of  131  km³  in  1928  (3.8%).  

2009  1974  

1943  

The  Inylchek  Glacier  terminus  retreated  0.7  km  since  1943  (aerial  photo),    434  m  between  1974  (KH-­‐9)  and  2009  (ALOS  Prism).  Total  area  loss  0.98  km2  (-­‐0.3%).    

50  m  

Central  Tien  Shan    (Inylchek  Glacier,  Tarim  R.  Basin)  

                       Snow  covered  area  changes  (SCA,  %)      

analysis  used  all  available  AVHRR  (1979-­‐2009  )  and  all  available  MODIS  Terra-­‐8  day  snow  cover  product  from  2000  to  2009      

SCA   (%)   computed   for   each   5   km   grid   from  eight-­‐day  snow  cover  data  relies  on  elevaZon  (higher  elevaZon,  higher  SCA).    

Trend   of   snow   cover   change   computed   using  Mann-­‐Kendall's   test   shows   staZsZcal   significant  SCA  change  rate  per  decade.  

6,056,480  km2  is  annually  covered  by  snow  in  CA  (about  45%  of  the  total  study  area  of  13,500,000  km2,  Pamir  and  Tien  Shan  show  significant  decrease   in     trend  of  SCA  percentage  per  decade  above  3000  –  4000  m  asl   (-­‐3.22%  to  -­‐4.06%)  but  elevated   in  Altai   (+2.51%).  DuraZon  of  snow  melt   from  the  date  of  maximum  snow  cover  to  the  date  of  it’s  disappearance  reduced  by  30  days  in  Tien  Shan  and  Pamir.    

(Marchenko  et  al,  2007)  

Over  60  years    observaZonal  data  analysis  from  251  meteorological  long-­‐term  staZons  located  at    an  elevaZon  range  between  -­‐25  m  below  sea  level  to  4169  m  asl  between  Mongolia  and  the  Caspian  Sea,  and  between  

south  Siberia  and  Tibetan  Plateau  

Differences   in   30-­‐year   averages  of   annual   precipitaZon  (dPan=   avePan1973-­‐2009   –   avePan1942-­‐1972).     Increased  variability   of   annual   precipitaZon,   parZcularly   over  3,000m  asl.  

Differences   in   30-­‐year   averages   of   annual   mean   air  temperatures   (dTan   =   aveTan1973-­‐1942   –   aveTan1942-­‐2009)   .    +0.65°C  difference  and    mainly  in  summer  up  to  +0.9°C.  

Tarim  R.  Basin,  Taklimakan  

Desert    

Aral-­‐Caspian    Basin  

Tien  Shan  

Pamir  

Balkhash  Lake  Aral  Sea  

Precipita>on  and  air  temperature  changes  

Altai  and  Mongolia  

PrecipitaZon  ,  mm  

Air  temperature,  oC  

 

For  the  last  thirty    six  years  (1973-­‐2009),  the  long-­‐term  mean  runoff    in  the  glacierized  basins  on  average  increased  by  2%  compared  with    the  previous  thirty    three  years  (1943-­‐1973),  while  thirty  three  year  mean  in  annual  maximum  runoff  decreased  by  5%  on  average    

River  runoff  in  Central  Asia  

Rela/ve  changes  of  the  last  thirty  year  annual  mean  (dQan/Qan)  and  maximum  (dQmax/Qmax)  river  runoff  in  comparison  to  sixty  six  year  averages,  %  ,  and  changes  in  dates  of  maximum  river  runoff  (ddQmax).    

%  

Xixia  Dynasty(11～13C)

Khara  Khoto:  relics  in  deserts  

Slide  6.  

Ice-coring sites: (a)  Western Belukha

Plateau (4115m asl) August 2003, Altai, Southern Siberia

(b)  Inylchek Glacier (5220m asl) August 2000, Central Tien Shan

(c)  Grigorieva Ice-cap (4563m asl) August 2007, Inner Tien Shan,

(d)  Fedchenko Glacier (5000m asl and 5400 m asl), Central Pamir 2009 and 2005.

RUSSIA

(a)  

(b)  (c)  

(d)  

INDIA

Industrial   Pre-­‐industrial   LIA   MW   HCO  

Pre-­‐boreal  

8.2ky  CE  

YDSC  

δ18 O

 

δ18 O

 

Core  depth,  m  

(A) Stable isotopic composition (δ18O), 1m/0.5 m and 200 samples moving averages for the period of moderate/abrupt changes (ice-core from Belukha Plateau, Siberian Altai, 2003) and (B) in Tien Shan (Grigorieva Ice-cap (2007).

Core  depth,  m  

Years   Belukha Plateau ice-coring site, Siberian Altai, 2003).

85.4m core from Gregoriev Ice-cap

Soil organic dated by 14C at the core bottom

81.4

81.6

81.8

82.0

82.2

82.4

82.6

82.8

83.0

83.2

83.4

83.6

83.8

84.0

84.2

84.4

84.6

84.8

85.0

85.2

85.4

85.6

85.8

86.0

86.2

86.4

DL

 The  Holocene  Climate  Op>mum  ,  8.2ky  CE  

The  Younger  Dryas,  15,650-­‐15,000    BP,  the  last  glacial  period  

BoXom  soil  

Core  dep

th,  m

 

-20

-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

2003

-190

0

999-

900

BC

0

-99

1000

-109

9

2000

-209

9

3000

-309

9

4000

-409

9

5000

-509

9

6000

-609

9

7000

-709

9

8000

-809

9

9000

-909

9

1000

0-10

099

ToCcentennial  

Centennial   (red   solid   line),   the  Modern   (blue   dashed   line)   and  Recent   Warm   Period   (black   dash-­‐domed   line)   means   of  reconstructed  air  temperature  for  circa  12,700  years    

Dated  stable  δ18O  isotope  records  10-­‐year  record  (bold  line)  and  25-­‐year  record  (double  bold  line)  

YD  –  Younger  Dryas  PBO  –  Pre-­‐Boreal  8.2  ka  Cold    Event  HCO  –  Holocene  Climate  OpZmum  SCD    -­‐    Severe  Centennial  Drought    PWP  –  Prolong  Warm  Period        

Aizen  et  al,  submi]ed  to  the  J.  of  Glaciology  

The     dried   watercourse     between   Aral   and     Caspian   seas  developed  during    the  Bølling/Allerød    interstadial.  

Thank    you!