air transportation systems lab virginia tech oshkosh, wi july 29- august 3, 2003
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Air Transportation Systems Lab Virginia Tech Oshkosh, WI July 29- August 3, 2003. Transportation Systems Analysis for the SATS Program. Credits. Dr. A.A. Trani (Project Lead) Dr. H. Baik and H. Swingle (Research Scientists) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Air Transportation Systems LabVirginia Tech
Oshkosh, WIJuly 29- August 3, 2003
Transportation Systems Analysis for the SATS Program
Credits
• Dr. A.A. Trani (Project Lead)
• Dr. H. Baik and H. Swingle (Research Scientists)
• A. Ashiabor, S. Seshadri, K. Murthy, and N. Hinze (Graduate Research Associates)
Integrated Transportation System Decision Support Model
ScenarioDefinition
Intercity ModelScenario Analysis
Intercity NetworkAnalysis
Intercity ModalSplit Analysis
Trip DistributionAnalysis
Travel Studies(all modes)Trip Generation
Analysis
InventoryStudies
Feedback Loop
Feedback Loop
Feedback Loop
InformationTechnology
National AirspaceSystem
TransportationCost Models
Intercity vehicle characteristics
TransportationVehicle
Performance Models
National andRegional
Economic Models
Blue = Dynamic ModelBlue = Dynamic ModelYellow = Aerospace TechnologyYellow = Aerospace Technology
NAS MetricsNAS MetricsTravel timeEconomic benefitsNoiseTraffic densitiesEnergy use
Integrated Transportation System Decision Support Model
Socio-economic DataSocio-economic DataAirports and CharacteristicsAirports and Characteristics
Aircraft Performance and Cost Aircraft Performance and Cost CharacteristicsCharacteristics
ScenarioDefinition
Intercity ModelScenario Analysis
Intercity NetworkAnalysis
Intercity ModalSplit Analysis
Trip DistributionAnalysis
Travel Studies(all modes)Trip Generation
Analysis
InventoryStudies
Feedback Loop
Feedback Loop
Feedback Loop
InformationTechnology
National AirspaceSystem
TransportationCost Models
Intercity vehicle characteristics
TransportationVehicle
Performance Models
National andRegional
Economic Models
ScenarioDefinition
Intercity ModelScenario Analysis
Intercity NetworkAnalysis
Intercity ModalSplit Analysis
Trip DistributionAnalysis
Travel Studies(all modes)Trip Generation
Analysis
InventoryStudies
Feedback Loop
Feedback Loop
Feedback Loop
InformationTechnology
National AirspaceSystem
TransportationCost Models
Intercity vehicle characteristics
TransportationVehicle
Performance Models
National andRegional
Economic Models
ScenarioDefinition
Intercity ModelScenario Analysis
Intercity NetworkAnalysis
Intercity ModalSplit Analysis
Trip DistributionAnalysis
Travel Studies(all modes)Trip Generation
Analysis
InventoryStudies
Feedback Loop
Feedback Loop
Feedback Loop
InformationTechnology
National AirspaceSystem
TransportationCost Models
Intercity vehicle characteristics
TransportationVehicle
Performance Models
National andRegional
Economic Models
Baseline yearBaseline year
Horizon TimeHorizon Time
Air Traffic Structure and Air Traffic Structure and CONOPSCONOPS
Air Transportation Network Air Transportation Network and Schedulesand Schedules
The Role of Aerospace Technology in the Transportation DSM
ScenarioDefinition
Intercity ModelScenario Analysis
Intercity NetworkAnalysis
Intercity ModalSplit Analysis
Trip DistributionAnalysis
Travel Studies(all modes)Trip Generation
Analysis
InventoryStudies
Feedback Loop
Feedback Loop
Feedback Loop
InformationTechnology
National AirspaceSystem
TransportationCost Models
Intercity vehicle characteristics
TransportationVehicle
Performance Models
National andRegional
Economic Models
HypersonicHypersonic HelicopterHelicopter
Tiltrotor/RIATiltrotor/RIA
SubsonicSubsonic
GA / CorporateGA / Corporate
SupersonicSupersonic
NAS MetricsNAS MetricsTravel timeEconomic benefitsNoiseTraffic densitiesEnergy use
Questions to be Answered with the Decision Support Model
• Reduce the travel time from door-to-destination by n percent
• What price for aerospace technology x is needed to achieve y(%) increase in air transportation demand?
• Use the integrated transportation systems model to investigate what aerospace technologies are needed to achieve the goal
• What is the impact of aerospace technology x in the fuel, energy consumption and the environment?
Trip Demand Generation
Given: Socio-economic characteristics for each county (for all states)
Predict: a) Number of trips produced per household/year
for various income levels b) Trips attracted to a county
Use: Trip rate tables
2
46
810
x 104
0
2
4
6
80
2
4
6
8
Annual Household Income ($)
Years AfterHigh School
Person-tripsper Year
per Household
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 35000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Intercity Trip are Influenced by Income and Trip Purpose
Data: ATS 1995Data: ATS 1995
High IncomeHigh Income
Medium IncomeMedium Income
Low IncomeLow Income
One-Way Trip Distance (miles)One-Way Trip Distance (miles)
Per
cen
t T
rave
lers
by
Air
(%
)P
erce
nt
Tra
vele
rs b
y A
ir (
%)
U.S. County Population Forecast(2000-2025)
Woods and Poole Economic ModelWoods and Poole Economic Model
Average U.S. County HouseholdIncome Forecast (2000-2025)
Woods and Poole Economic ModelWoods and Poole Economic Model
Originating Intercity Trip Forecast (2000-2025)
Trip Distribution Analysis
Given: Trips produced from and attracted to each county
Predict: a) Number of person-trips from each origin to every
destination (county to county)
Use: Gravity Model
Tij
PiAjFij Kij
AjFij Kijj1=
n
-----------------------------------=
Transportation Modal Split
Given: Trips from each origin to each destinationPredict: a) Number of person-trips
for every mode of transportation availableUse: Nested Multinomial Logit Model and Diversion Curves
AutomobileAviation
General Commercial
Traveler
Aviation Aviation
Bus Key variables: travel cost, door-to-door travel time, perceived safety
Location of Airports and PopulationInfluences Mode Split
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Distance to Airport (statute miles)
Pe
rce
nt
of
Po
pu
latio
n
TextEnd
Towered Towered Airports (474)Airports (474) Hub Airports (135)Hub Airports (135)
Census 1990 and 2000Census 1990 and 2000Data with 61,224 tractsData with 61,224 tractsin NASin NAS
3348 Airports3348 Airports
Large Hub Airports (30)Large Hub Airports (30)QuickTime™ and aPhoto - JPEG decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Travel patterns are heavily influencedTravel patterns are heavily influencedby cost economicsby cost economics
SATS vs. Other Modes:Very Light Jet Aircraft Cost
Assumptions on SATS travel: jet aircraft, less than 10,000 pounds total weight, utilized 500 hours per year, no deadhead legs, 3 passengers, two pilots.
$186$174$162
$448
$358
$269
$1053
$714
$366
600 Miles 900 Miles 300 Miles
Coach Business
SATS
Coach
Business
SATS
Coach
Business
SATS
SATS vs. Other Modes:Very Light Jet Aircraft Cost
$186$174$162
$448
$358
$269
$801
$546
$282
Coach
Business
SATS
Coach
Business
SATS
Coach
Business
SATS
300 Miles 600 Miles 900 Miles
Assumptions on SATS travel: jet aircraft, less than 10,000 pounds total weight, utilized 500 hours per year, no deadhead legs, 3 passengers, one pilot.
Transportation Network Analysis
Aircraft Point Performance
Model
Aircraft Trajectory Generator
OD Person-trips by Mode
(from Modal Split Analysis)
Air Traffic Control Operational Flight Rules
Aircraft 4D Trajectories
MicroscopicSimulation
Model
Measures ofEffectiveness
(delays, conflicts, workload, safety)
NAS Sectorand Special Use
Airspace Database
TransportationSystemsAnalysis Modules
(Trip generation,Trip distribution,and Modal Split)
Hourly DemandFunctionDatabase
NAS Concept ofOperations
OD Flights per Year
by aircraft type
Fuel, Energyand Environmental
Metrics
Flight Trajectory Aircraft Model
Airbus A320Airbus A320Jacksonville - MiamiJacksonville - Miami
Flight trajectory module employs the Flight trajectory module employs the Eurocontrol’s BADA modelEurocontrol’s BADA model
Concluding Remarks
• An integrated transportation model has been developed
• The model can be used in the evaluation of future aerospace technologies
• The model is flexible enough to incorporate new assumptions and models developed elsewhere
• National-level environmental impacts require a model capable of expressing spatial demand and supply patterns (I.e., equivalent to FEM/CFD techniques used in aerospace)