aim/cge for global and country analysis - 国立環境研 … for global and country analysis...
TRANSCRIPT
AIM/CGE for global and country analysis
Toshihiko Masui, Azusa Okagawa, Kenichi Matsumoto, Shinichiro Fujimori, and Hancheng Dai(National Institute for Environmental Studies)
The 16th AIM WorkshopNational Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
19 February 2011
Impact/Adaptation Model
Emission Model
Overall of AIM
【Country】
【Global】
【Enduse model】
【Economic model】
【Account model】
【sequentialdynamics】
【dynamicoptimization】
【Local/City】
Agriculture
Water
Human health
Simple Climate Model
Other Models
future society
Population Transportation Residential
GHGemissions
temperature
【Global】 【National/Local】
feedback
AIM/Impact[Policy]
Burden share Stock‐flow
mid‐term target
IPCC/WG3
IPCC/WG2
IPCC/integrated scenario
carbon tax
long‐term vision
Accounting
2adaptation
low carbon scenario
CGE models development and their application
• Global model– Long‐term emission
scenarios: RCP and SSP– AME and EMF– Contribution to other
analyses such as LCS study (S‐6; Env. research fund, MoE)
• Country model– Mid‐long term GHG
emission reduction target in Japan
– Application to China
• New model development‒ Global model: more detailed sectors and regions‒ Country model: training workshop toward LCS study
Main purposes of CGE models‒ Consistency check of scenarios‒ Quantification of economic impacts of GHG mitigation policies
3
Global Model
4
Features of present AIM/CGE [Global]
• Global general equilibrium model with recursive dynamics. • Benchmark data of the economic activity is GTAP6 (the year
2001). IEA energy balance table is introduced for energy– Numbers of region: 24– Types of commodity: 21– Treated Gas: CO2, CH4, N2O, SOx, NOx, CO, NMVOC, BC, OC,
NH3• Production factor: capital, labor, resource and land• Future scenarios
– technology change (TFP, AEEI, material inputs, …)– consumption pattern change
• Designed to link with the global technology selection (endusetype) model and country CGE model
5
Region and commodity in AIM/CGE [Global]
JapanChinaKoreaIndonesiaIndiaThailandOther South‐east AsiaOther South AsiaAustraliaNew ZealandRest of Asia‐PacificCanadaUSAEU‐15 in Western EuropeEU‐10 in Eastern EuropeRussiaRest of EuropeBrazilMexicoArgentineOther Latin AmericaMiddle EastSouth AfricaOther Africa
AgricultureLivestockForestryFishingMining (except fossil fuels)Energy intensive productsMetal and machineryFoodsOther manufacturesWaterConstructionTransportCommunicationPublic serviceOther serviceCoalCrude oilPetroleum productsNatural gasGas manufacture distributionElectricity
Coal fire*, Oil products fire*, Gas fire*, Nuclear, Hydro, Biomass*, Waste, Geothermal, Solar, Wind, and Other renewables*: with/without CCS 6
RCP and SSP toward IPCC/AR5
• RCP: Representative Concentration Pathways– Inputs to climate models: Concentrations of GHGs, land use change, ...– Following model teams are contributing;
• 2.6W/m2 IMAGE• 4.5W/m2 MiniCAM• 6.0W/m2 AIM• 8.5W/m2 MESSAGE
– NIES (climate modeling team), JAMSTEC and Ibaraki Univ. support AIM team.
– Emission forecasts and historical data for RCP: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web‐apps/tnt/RcpDb
• SSP: Shared Socio‐economic Pathways– Inputs to impact models: Socio‐economic activities– Different future directions: Adaptive Capacity and Mitigation Capacity
RCP
7
Results on RCP
Total CO2 emissions by scenarios
Electricity in 6W/m2 Electricity in reference
RCP
8
Asian Modeling Exercise
• Model comparison project
• Final goals1. Asian scenarios toward low carbon
society (‐2100)• Policy options and their costs in Asia
2. Input outcomes to AR5
• Schedule– 1st meeting in Tsukuba, Sep 2009– 2nd meeting in Beijing, Mar 2010– 3rd meeting in Seoul, Sep 2010– Final data submission, Jan 2011– The 4th meeting in Xian, Mar 2011– Paper deadline: June 1st 2011
AIM/Enduse [Global]Bottom‐up model
AIM/CGE [Global]Top‐down model
Technology information(Energy Efficiency Improvement)
AME
9
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
550 ppm 450 ppm
Results from AIM/CGE [Global]
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
China (BAU)China (550ppm)China (450ppm)Japan (BAU)Japan (550ppm)Japan (450ppm)India (BAU)India (550ppm)India (450ppm)
Total CO2 emission(Mt CO2)
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
TPES/GDP(EJ/billion US$)
CO2/GDP(Mt CO2/billion US$)
World carbon price(US$2005/t CO2)
AME
10
Preliminary results for EMF24 (1st round)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Mt C
O2/yr
Scenario 1 Base Scenario 2 Base
Scenario 3 Base Scenario 4 Base
Scenario 5 450 CO2e Scenario 6 550 CO2e
Scenario 7 550 CO2e Scenario 8 550 CO2e
Scenario 9 550 CO2e Scenario 10 Idealized G8
Scenario 13 Muddling through Scenario 14 Muddling through
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
billion
US$2005/yr
Scenario 1 Base Scenario 2 Base
Scenario 3 Base Scenario 4 Base
Scenario 5 450 CO2e Scenario 6 550 CO2e
Scenario 7 550 CO2e Scenario 8 550 CO2e
Scenario 9 550 CO2e Scenario 10 Idealized G8
Scenario 13 Muddling through Scenario 14 Muddling through
Global GDP Global CO2 emissions
EMF24
11
2 approaches toward Low Carbon Society
Low Carbon Society
Backcastingto estimate roadmap
Top‐down approach: global model analysisGHG emissions from Asia region corresponding to global target
Bottom‐up approach: country/local scenario developmentQuantification of activity in the future achieving country/local GHGemission reduction target
How to bridge“GAP”?
LCS
12
Asia in scenario of global GHG emission reduction by half
CO2 emissions (bil. tCO2) Primary energy supply (EJ)
Renewable energy supply (EJ)
Japan ChinaKorea IndonesiaThailand Other Sounth & East AsiaIndia Other Sounth AsiaOther Asia Rest of the WorldReference (global) Reference (Asia)
LCS
13
Country Model
14
▲15%▲19%▲25%
1,261 1,344 1,355 1,282 1,3741,257 1,076 1,018 949
0
500
1,000
1,500
1990
年
2000
年
2005
年
2008
年
技術
固定
参照
▲15
%
▲20
%
▲25
%
Linkage between AIM/Enduse[Japan] and AIM/CGE[Japan]
This information estimated from AIM/Enduse [Japan] is input into AIM/CGE [Japan].
Additional investment to reduce GHG emissions
2011-2020▲15% ▲20% ▲25%
industry Energy intensive industries 1.8 1.8 1.8Industrial furnace, boiler, etc 1.2 1.2 1.4
3.0 3.0 3.3residential High insulation house 10.1 15.3 19.9
High efficient & solar water heater 6.1 7.9 9.6High efficient appliances & HEMS 4.8 7.9 11.3
21.1 31.1 40.8Commercial Energy efficient building 3.6 5.8 6.1
High efficient & solar water heater 0.4 1.1 1.5High efficient appliances 2.0 2.7 3.6
6.0 9.7 11.2Transportation Next generation vehicles 7.0 7.9 8.7
Low fuel consumption 0.8 0.8 0.87.8 8.7 9.5
energy PV 11.0 13.0 15.2Wind power 2.8 2.8 2.8Small scale hydro & geo-thermal 1.7 3.2 5.3Biomass power 1.0 1.0 1.0power system stabilization 2.3 3.6 5.1Gas pipelines 0.3 0.3 0.4CCS 0.0 0.0 0.1
19.0 23.8 29.9Non-CO2 Agriculture 0.1 0.1 0.1
Waste 0.3 0.3 0.3F-gas 0.6 1.4 1.8
1.0 1.8 2.1Total from 2011 to 2020 58.2 78.3 96.8Annual average 5.8 7.8 9.7unit : trillion yen
(as of 21 December 2010)
GHG emissions (MtCO2eq)
Non-energyEnergyTransportationCommercialResidentialIndustry
Fixed techno
logy
Reference
Year 2020
Japan
15
GDP and carbon price from AIM/CGE [Japan](as of 21 December 2010)
2020reference ▲15% ▲20% ▲25%
GDP growth rate(2010‐2020;%/year) 2.07% 1.96% 1.89% 1.77%
GDP change from reference in 2020 (%) ‐1.11% ‐1.78% ‐2.94%
CO2 price(yen at 2000 price/tCO2) 14,643 21,198 41,446
Japan
Within 10 years, GDP growth rate will slow down, but new industries related energy saving equipment and renewable energy will be activated.
16
China Dynamic CGE Model Features
Model: Recursive dynamic CGE model, 41 sectorsTime period: 2005‐2050, 5 year stepGas: Energy related CO2, Process CO2, other GHGsTechnology:
• 12 power generation technologies 7 fossil and 5 non‐fossil
• CCS technology in: Coal and gas fired electricity sectors, sectors of cement, chemistry, iron and steel.
China
17
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
2005
10b
il. Yuan
GDP
RS
S_GDP
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
MtCO2/ year
CO2
RSS_GDP
050100150200250300350400450500
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
2005
US$/t CO2 eq
Carbon Price
RS
S_GDP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
Mtce/year
Primary Energy in RS
COL OIL NGS HYD
NUC WND BIO SOL
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
Mtce/year
Final Energy in RS
SOLID LIQUID GAS ELECT
020004000600080001000012000140001600018000
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
Bil.kwh/year
Power generation in RS
COL OIL GAS COLc GASc
HYD NUC WND BIO SOL
China Dynamic CGE Model: Preliminary ResultsChina
18
New model development
19
Main features of a new Global CGE modelNew model Present model
Region 35 (Asian countries; 14) 24 (Asian countries; 8)Industry 38 (manufacture sector is
disaggregated in detail)20
Emissions CO2, CH4, N2O, NH3, SOx, NOx, BC, OC
Institution Household, government, Enterprise
Representative household
Dynamics Recursive dynamic(1 year step)
Recursive dynamic (10 year step)
Base year 2005 2001
Base data Original energy balance and SAM (data reconciliation system)
GTAP and IEA energy balances
Program GAMS / MCP GAMS / MPSGE
Global
20
Preliminary results of global CGE model
Global GHG emissionsGlobal GDP
Global power structure (450ppm‐delay scenario) GHG emission price
0500100015002000250030003500400045005000
2005
US$/t CO2 eq
ChinaKoreaUSAIndiaIndonesiaMalaysiaJapanSingaporeThailandVietnamPhilipineRest of South AsiaRest of South east Asia
020406080100120140160180
Tril US$/ y
ear
BaU550ppm450ppm450ppm‐delay
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Mtoe/year
OtherrenewableBiomass wCCSBiomass woCCSHydro
Nuclear
Fired w CCS
0102030405060708090
GtCO2eq/ year
BaU550ppm450ppm450ppm‐delay
Global
21
Country CGE model and example of the results‐a case of Japan‐
• Most of the features are same as global model.• Each national characteristic (eg renewable energy potential)
should be considered.• National governmental target and plan will be implemented
in the scenario.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
GHG
emissions
(Mton‐CO
2 eq
u./year)
ImportedemissionActualemissionBaU
75%reduction
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
GDP
(200
5USD
,billion)
BaU
75% reduction
GHG emissions GDP
Country
22
Training workshop on Country CGE model
• We will have a training workshop for development of country LCS scenario by using a CGE model. – Date; June 1 or 2 weeks (Tentative)– Location; NIES @ Tsukuba
• Required abilities to attend this training workshop– Basic knowledge about microeconomics, input‐output
analysis and GAMS– Experience to publish a peer‐reviewed scientific paper– Enthusiasm to show the economic aspects of LCS
Country
23