agromet for belg 2013 impact outlook
TRANSCRIPT
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Agro-Meteorological Impact Outlook for
Belg 2013
February, 2013
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Outline of Presentation
IntroductionComputed Moisture status for analogue years
2007,1978, 1980 & 2005
Computed WRSI on BelgWheat, Maize, Teffanalogue year 2007 &2005
Computed WRSI Rangeland for analogue
years 2007 &2005Impact of expected Seasonal Rainfall
Probabilities for Belg 2013 on Agriculture
Conclusion and Recommendation
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Major Agricultural Activities of Belg Season
Planting of Belg crops over SNNPR ( Konso, Derashe,Burji, Amaro kello, north Omo and Kanbata &Timbaro),south Tigray, north and northwest Shoa, south & northwollo, Bale, Arsi, and west Hararge.
The main rainy season for the pastoral and agropastoralaraes of the south and southeastern parts of the country,including southern Somali, the lowlands of Borena, Guji andBale zones SNNPR also second rainy season for the pastoralregion ofAfar.
Introduction
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Belg growing areas of the country
Normally Central parts of northern and easternhighlands, central, southwestern and southernEthiopia are known as Belg growing areas.
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5-30 % of annual product from Belg rain
3060% of annual product from Belg rain
Contribution of Belg from annual total production
The contribution of Belg rainfall
is ranging from 5-30% over the
north, northeastern and eastern
highlands where as 30-60% oversouth and southwestern parts of
the country from annual total
crop production of the areas.
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Computed Moisture status for analogue
years 2007, 1978, 1980 and 2005
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1980
Moisture status for the selected analog year for the month of February
1978
Moist to Humid moisture statusfor the month of February in the
given analogue years over South
Tigray, eastern Amhara and
SNNPR. might have a positive
impact on Belg land preparation,
sowing of cereals, pulses and oil
crops. Where as 2005 shows dry to
very dry moisture condition over
most Belg growing areas.
2007
2005
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Moisture status for the selected analog year for the month of March
During the month of March most
of the analogue years indicate
moist to humid moisture
condition over most Belg growing
areas of central and southern
Oromiya, most parts of SNNPR,eastern Amhara and southern
Tigray and northern Somali.
1980
19782007
2005
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Moisture status for the selected analog year for the month of April
The moisture status during themonth of April for the givenanalogue years indicate thatmoist to humid condition overmost Belg growing areas of thecountry for Belg agriculturalactivities, sowing of long cyclecrops like maize and sorghumincluding pulse crops like haricotbean. Moreover, it is also time toharvest water for pasture anddrinking water over the lowlands
of pastoral and agro pastoralareas.
1980
19782007
2005
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In the month of May all the
given analogue years indicatesthat moist to humid moisture
condition over western parts of
the country. The situation might
have favor for Belg agricultural
activities, land preparation for
Meher season and availability of
pasture and drinking water over
pastoral and agro pastoral areas.
Moisture status for the selected analog year for the month of May
1980
19782007
2005
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NDVI and Deviation from normal for thegiven Analog year 2007 and 2005
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NDVI and deviation from normal for the given Analog year 2007
MayAprilMarch
Feb
MayMarchFeb April
NDVI and deviation from normal for the given Analog year 2005
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Computed WRSI for Belg crops Wheat,Maize & Teff the analogue year
2007 & 2005
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WRSI for Belg crops Wheat, Maize & Teff the analogue year 2007 &2005
Wheat Belg 2005 Maize Belg 2005 Teff Belg 2005
Wheat Belg 2007Maize Belg 2007 Teff Belg 2007
Total crops water requirement satisfaction index in the given analog yearshows poor moisture condition over northeastern, central & parts ofsouthern Oromia in all selected yield. Moderate to good WRSI conditionis confined over most parts of SNNPR, parts of southern and eastern Oromia ,northern Somalia and Bale & Arsi zones of Belg growing areas of the country.
Belg Maize crop need proper attention over most Belg growing areas of thecountry .
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Computed WRSI of rangeland foranalogue Years
2007 & 2005
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Computed WRSI of rangeland for analogue years 2007 &2005
Mar 2007
Mar 2005Feb 2005
Feb 2007
May 2005
May 2007
Apr 2005
Apr 2007
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Western & northwestern Ethiopia will experience a probability of normal to abovenormal condition will favor for the availability of moist to humid moisture conditionwhich is Conducive for general agricultural activities and planting of long cyclecrops Therefore, proper input should be utilized to take advantage of the relativelybetter condition for long Cycle crops..
Much of eastern half and northeastern portion of the country expected to experienceprobability of near normal to below normal moisture condition. Thus the situation
might have slight negative impact on the general agricultural activities of the season,availability of pastor & drinking water over pastoral and agro pastoral areas. There forfarmers and the concerned bodies must given attention to the selection of seed whichtolerant to moisture stress, proper utilization of rain water harvesting and moistureconservation.
Southwestern, southern and central parts of the country will expect a probability ofnear normal to above normal moisture condition this might have a positive impact forBelg agricultural activities, availability of pastor & drinking water over pastoral and agropastoral areas, perennial plants and planting long cycle crops.
Southeastern and some parts of Southern low lands of Oromia will expect to have aprobability of normal to below normal moisture situation this will exhibit moisture stressfor perennial plants and negative impact for the availability of pasture and drinkingwater on the area.
Conclusion & RecommendationImpact of expected Seasonal Rainfall
Tercile Probabilities for Belg 2013 on Agriculture
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The analyzed moisture status of all selected analogue years expected to
Moderate to good moisture over Belg growing areas particularly in the southern
portion and SNNPR has paramount importance in the areas where their Belgproduction contribution ranges from 30-60 % from annual production.
Total crops water requirement (WRSI) in all analog year showed total failure over
northeastern, some parts of central & eastern Oromia. Moderate to very good
WRSI condition is confined over southern and few parts of eastern Oromia , Bale
& Arsi zones of Belg growing areas of the country. thus, farmers and theconcerned body need to give attention for those areas shows poor WRSI by
utilize rain water harvesting, moisture conservation and adoption of suitable
crops needing less water requirement should be adopted.
The improvement of moisture condition in the month of April and May over
western half, some parts ofsouth and southeast of all selected analogue yearsexpected to favor planting of long cycle crops and availability of pasture and
drinking water.
Conclusion & Recommendation
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