agriculture and climate vulnerability in the sudano ... · pdf filedepartment of geography...

Agriculture and climate vulnerability in the Sudano-Sahelian region of West Africa

Presented by Ole Mertz on behalf of AMMA WP3.2

Department of Geography & Geology

Co-authors and partners in AMMA WP 3.2Ole MERTZ1, Cheikh MBOW2, Jonas Ø. NIELSEN1, Abdou MAIGA3, Alioune KA4, Drissa DIALLO5, Pierre CISSÉ5, Drissa COULIBALY5, Bruno BARBIER6, Dapola DA7, Tanga Pierre ZOUNGRANA 7, Ibrahim BOUZOU MOUSSA8, Waziri Mato MAMAN8, Boureima AMADOU8, Addo MAHAMAN8, Alio MAHAMAN8, Amadou OUMAROU8, Daniel DABI9, Vincent IHEMEGBULEM9, Awa DIOUF2, Malick ZOROMÉ6, Ibrahim OUATTARA7, Mamadou KABRÉ7, Anette REENBERG1, Kjeld RASMUSSEN1, Inge SANDHOLT1, Eric Lambin10, Sarah D’haen10

1 University of Copenhagen, Denmark; 2 Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, Senegal; 3 University of Montreal, Canada; 4 Centre de Suivi Ecologique, Senegal; 5 Université de Bamako, Mali; 6 2ie, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; 7

Université de Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; 8 Université Abdou Moumouni, Niamey, Niger; 9 University of Jos, Nigeria; 10Catholic University of Leuven, Belgium


Adapting to what? Specific research question(s) for AMMA WP 3.2

Based on empirical studies at multiple levels, how will development trends in the Sahel such as

• urbanization – migration, off-farm activities• land tenure changes and capital investment• trade – diversification of production and new technologies• government policies and macroeconomic trends/changes• land and resource restoration/degradation

affect, positively or negatively, the vulnerability of households, communities and Sahelian countries? How is their relative weight compared to impacts of climate change and variability (CCV)? Which coping and adaptation strategies are adopted in the face of these changes or trends, and to what extent are these strategies specifically a response to CCV?


AMMA WP3.2 field sites


Methodology

40 group interviews

1354 household questionnaires – analysis according to ‘ecological’ north-south (or east-west) zones

Analysis of National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs / PANAs)

Development of ’what if’ scenarios


Methodology

Perception based cause-effect relationships in questionnaires:

Example of question sequence:1) Current crop yield2) Change in crop yields over the past 20 years3) Cause of change in crop yields over the past 20 years

Perceptions vs. Reality?- Direct measurements are costly and require historical data

that are often unavaliable- People act on their perceptions of reality- Danger of hidden agendas and local narratives


Income sources

Ranking of main income sources

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Agriculturalproducts

Livestock Vegetablefarming

Craftsman Migration Business

Income source

% o

f hou

seho

lds

Rank 1Rank 2Rank 3

Income sources mentioned by households

0102030405060708090

Agriculturalproducts

Livestock Business Craftsman Migration Vegetablefarming

Income source

% o

f hou

seho

lds


Change in income and causes

01020304050607080

Agriculture Livestock Business Craftsman Migration Vegetablefarming

Income source

% o

f hou

seho

lds Increased

Decreased

Disappeared

Do not know

New

Stable

Cause of income decrease

Agriculture Livestock

% n=806 % n=287

Rainfall insufficient 63,5 21,3

Livestock no. decreased 15,0

Agricultural prod. decreased 12,7

Pasture decreased 12,2

Livestock diseases increased 11,8

Soil fertility decreased 10,7


Perceptions of change in crop production

Pearl millet

0102030405060708090

100

400‐500 mm 500‐700 mm 700‐900 mm Total

% of h

ouseho

lds

increased

decreased

stable


Perceptions of causes of production decline – pearl millet

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Rainfall insufficient

Pest infestation ‐ anim

als

Soil fertility decreased

Poverty

Fertilizer decreased

Land for agriculture decreased

Agricultura

l equipm

ent decreased

Labour decreased

Input prices in

creased

% of h

ouseho

lds (Pearl m

illet)

400‐500 mm

500‐700 mm

700‐900 mm

Total


Perceptions of causes of decline in cattle holdings

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Lives

tock

Dise

ases

Fam

ily ne

eds i

ncre

ased

Lives

tock

death

Rainf

all in

suffi

cient

Lives

tock

sale

Pastu

re in

adeq

uate

Lives

tock

theft

Lives

tock

feed

defic

it

Pove

rty

% of h

ouseho

lds

400‐500 mm

500‐700 mm

700‐900 mm

Total


Perceptions of change in permanent pasture

Permanent pasture

0

20

40

60

80

100

400‐500 500‐700 700‐900 Total

% of h

ouseho

lds

Increased

Decreased

Stable


Perceptions of causes of decline in permanent pasture

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Agric

ultur

al ex

pans

ionPo

pulat

ion in

creas

eRa

infall

insu

fficie

ntPa

sture

inad

equa

te

Defo

resta

tion

Land

for p

astu

re de

creas

ed

% of h

ouseho

lds

400‐500 mm

500‐700 mm

700‐900 mm

Total


Adaptation measures in response to negative impacts on agriculture

Agriculture (crops)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Prayer

Fertilization of soils

Food purchase

Reforestation

Soil and water conservation

Migration

Manure use

Government support

Agricultural practices improved

Seeds improved

Crops introduced

Livelihood diversification

Gardening

Rainfall provoked

% of h

ouseho

lds stating adaptation

measure

400‐500

500‐700

700‐900

Total


Adaptation measures in response to negative impacts on livestock

Livestock

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Vete

rinar

y con

trol o

f live

stock

Lives

tock

fodd

er co

mple

ment

s

Agric

ultur

al re

sidue

sTr

ansh

uman

ceLiv

esto

ck sa

le

Pray

erRe

fores

tatio

n

Gove

rnme

nt su

ppor

tFo

dder

stor

age%

of h

ouseho

lds stating an

adaptation measure

400‐500 mm

500‐700 mm

700‐900 mm

Total


Analysis of NAPAs of Sahelian countriesProject type Senegal Mali

(18)Burkina Faso (12)

Niger(14)

Rank

New fodder species in pastoral areas 1

Livestock food banks 4 2

Improved crop irrigation and water harvesting 1/4, 2, 3 5/8 2/3/7 3/4

Peri-urban agriculture 5

Diversify income-generating activities 2 6

Agro-meteorological information and early warning 4 1 8

Food and cereal banks 3 9

Soil conservation in agriculture and pastures 4 11/12

Disseminated well-adapted species 3, 4 1 11/12

Improved farming techniques 12

Dissemination of composting techniques 12

Intensive livestock production 16 8

Production of bio-fuel 17NAPA = National Adaptation Programme of Action


Scenarios of the future of the Sahel

Presented data + other quantitative and qualitative analyses used in the scenario development:

1. SALU model output (Stephenne & Lambin)

2. Analysis of census data (D’haen)

3. Village-level household survey (Mertz et al.)

4. Village-level case studies (Nielsen and Reenberg)

5. Expert consultation (brainstorming session)

6. Climate scenarios (AMMA/Ensembles)

• Plausible and simplified descriptions of how the future may

develop

• Neither predictions, nor projections


Adapted Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios: Semi-arid West Africa, 2020

Approach to environmental management (at national to global scales)

Reactive Proactive

Nat

iona

l pro

tect

ioni

sm

« Downward spiral »

- Rapid climate change - Expansion of agriculture - Chaotic urban growth

« Integrated economy »

- Integrated land management - Food production for local markets - Rural-urban exchanges

Eco

nom

ic d

evel

opm

ent p

olic

ies

Glo

baliz

atio

n

« Open doors »

- Large-scale outmigration - Land grab by foreign companies - Development aid

« Carbon sink »

- Biofuel crops - Land management for carbon sink - Off-farm activities


Conclusions 1

• The rainfed agricultural sector is perceived to be under significant stress with climate (rainfall) as a main constraint

• Few solutions are seen to this problem in the dry zone

• The livestock sector is less affected by climate parameters• It (still) seems to be the most promising pathway for developing

agriculture in the drier parts of Sahel

• Adaptation projects proposed in the NAPAs poorly reflected in the adaptation options chosen by local people


Conclusion 2

• Trend toward a less climate-dependent economy – especially in the driest areas

• Many vulnerable households, but high capacity to diversify

• Driest areas: importance of capacity to transform rather than resilience of current systems

• Large Intra-regional differences in scenarios (dry Sahel versus wetter Sudan zone; East versus West)


Proposed special issue of ’Cahiers Agricultures’

• Article 1. Introduction – vulnerability and adaptation of rural people in the Sudano-sahelian Region

• Article 2. Perceptions of climate change in rural Sahel• Article 3. Typologies of adaptation strategies• Article 4. Evolution of the livestock sector in the face of climate

variability• Article 5. Adaptation to climate change with ecosystem services:

the role of forest resources in the rural Sahel• Article 6. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability:

gender and social life• Article 7. Migration and climate variability• Article 8. Evolution of rainfed agriculture in the context of climate

variability• Article 9. Irrigation and climate variability• Article 10. National adaptation policies and local realities• Article 11. Scenarios on the future of the African Sahel


Thank you for your attention

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