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Agricultural commodities

Research by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

DECEMBER QUARTER 2013

© Commonwealth of Australia 2013

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Cataloguing data ABARES 2013, Agricultural commodities: December quarter 2013, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra.

ISSN 189-5619 (printed) ISSN 189-5627 (online) ISBN 978-1-74323-166-1 (printed) ISBN 978-1-74323-165-4 (online) ABARES project 43006

Internet Agricultural commodities: December quarter 2013 is available at daff.gov.au/abares/publications.

Contact Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)

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The Australian Government acting through the Department of Agriculture represented by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, has exercised due care and skill in preparing and compiling the information and data in this publication. Notwithstanding, the Department of Agriculture, ABARES, its employees and advisers disclaim all liability, including liability for negligence, for any loss, damage, injury, expense or cost incurred by any person as a result of accessing, using or relying upon any of the information or data in this publication to the maximum extent permitted by law.

Economic overview 6

Agriculture 31

Crops

Wheat 32

Coarse grains 39

Oilseeds 48

Sugar 58

Cotton 64

Livestock

Beef and veal 76

Sheep 84

Dairy 91

High performing farms 97

Boxes

Agriculture in northern Australia 19

Effect of the Queensland drought on livestock and crop production 22

Effect of the Queensland drought on farm financial performance 25

Indian soybean industry 50

Adoption of genetically modified cotton 67

Major financial performance indicators 100

Statistical tables 101

Report extracts 144

ABARES contacts 149

Contents

Outlook 20144–5 March, Canberra

2014

Registrations are open for Outlook 2014 – the leading forum for Australia’s primary industries.

The theme for Outlook 2014 is ‘Realising the Opportunities’. This reflects evolving conversations in rural communities, from identifying innovations and export opportunities to positioning our industries to take advantage of those prospects.

ABARES has confirmed leading national speakers and producers, plus international speakers from the G20, Peking University, the European Commission, the United States Department of Agriculture and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Be part of the ABARES Outlook 2014 conference and examine the major issues for Australia’s primary industries; understand the short to long-term outlook for a range of commodities; explore industry issues; and talk directly with public and private sector decision-makers.

Discover the full program and register online daff.gov.au/abares/outlook

InquiriesMaree Finnegan Phone +61 2 6272 2260 Email [email protected]

Economic overview

6 ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 3 no. 4 • December quarter 2013

Economic overviewFaraz Syed, Jenny Eather and Brian Moir

• World economic growth is assumed to weaken from 3.2 per cent in 2012 to 2.8 per cent in 2013, before improving to 3.4 per cent in 2014.

• The outlook for many emerging economies has weakened in recent months, but they are expected to continue to be the main drivers of world growth.

• Economic growth in OECD economies is assumed to remain slow. The recovery is expected to continue in the United States and Europe in 2014. In Japan, growth is assumed to slow in 2014, mainly because of a planned value-added tax increase.

• The Australian dollar depreciated by 16 per cent against the US dollar between mid April and early August, and has remained volatile since. It is assumed to average around US92 cents in 2013–14.

Global economic growth expected to recover gradually in 2014Global economic growth has been relatively subdued since the beginning of 2013. Recovery in OECD countries has been slow. Activity in emerging economies, particularly in Asia, continues to underpin world economic growth. However, the outlook for some emerging economies has weakened in recent months because of concerns about capital outflows and exchange rate volatility.

World economic growth

%

a ABARES assumption.

1

–1

2

3

4

5

6

2014a20122010200820062004200220001998

7

Economic overview

ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 3 no. 4 • December quarter 2013

Demand in OECD countries is improving, but is expected to remain relatively weak in the short term. In the United States, private sector demand is expected to continue its gradual recovery in 2014, despite a relatively subdued labour market, uncertainty regarding the US government debt ceiling and a possible slowdown in the pace of asset purchases by the Federal Reserve. Western Europe is assumed to return to growth in 2014, after pulling out of recession in 2013.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, world economic growth is assumed to average 2.8 per cent in 2013 and improve to around 3.4 per cent in 2014. For OECD economies as a whole, economic growth is assumed to be around 1.1 per cent in 2013, before strengthening to 1.8 per cent in 2014.

For emerging economies, growth is expected to slow in 2013, although it remains high compared with the world average. In many emerging economies, domestic demand has been relatively robust, sustaining economic growth despite weak external demand. Economic growth in developing countries as a whole is assumed to average 5.0 per cent in 2013, before strengthening to 5.3 per cent in 2014.

Regional economic growth

%world

Russian Federation,Ukraine and Eastern Europe

Latin America

non-OECD Asia

OECD

20122013a

2014a


1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Economic overview


Key macroeconomic assumptionsKey macroeconomic assumptionsKeymacroeconomicassumptions

ld

y pWorld unit 2011 2012 2013 a 2014 aEconomic growthOECD % 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.8Economic growthOECD % 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.8United States % 1 8 2 8 1 5 2 2United States % 1.8 2.8 1.5 2.2Japan % 0 6 2 0 1 8 1 2Japan % –0.6 2.0 1.8 1.2W t E % 1 7 0 1 0 2 1 1Western Europe % 1.7 –0.1 0.2 1.1– Germany % 3.4 0.9 0.5 1.4y– France % 2.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 France % 2.0 0.0 0.1 0.8– United Kingdom % 1.1 0.2 1.4 1.8– United Kingdom % 1.1 0.2 1.4 1.8– Italy % 0 4 –2 4 –1 8 0 3– Italy % 0.4 –2.4 –1.8 0.3Korea Rep of % 3 7 2 0 2 7 3 5Korea, Rep. of % 3.7 2.0 2.7 3.5New Zealand % 1 4 2 7 2 7 3 0New Zealand % 1.4 2.7 2.7 3.0

Developing countries % 6.7 5.6 5.0 5.3Developing countries % 6.7 5.6 5.0 5.3– non‐OECD Asia % 8.1 6.6 6.3 6.3– non‐OECD Asia % 8.1 6.6 6.3 6.3

South East Asia b % 4 5 6 1 5 0 5 3 South‐East Asia b % 4.5 6.1 5.0 5.3Chi % 9 3 7 7 7 7 7 5 China c % 9.3 7.7 7.7 7.5Tai an % 4 1 1 3 1 8 2 8 Taiwan % 4.1 1.3 1.8 2.8Si Singapore % 5.2 1.3 3.4 3.6g p

India % 6.3 3.2 4.7 4.7 India % 6.3 3.2 4.7 4.7– Latin America % 4.6 3.0 2.7 3.0 Latin America % 4.6 3.0 2.7 3.0Russian Federation % 4.3 3.4 1.5 2.8Russian Federation % 4.3 3.4 1.5 2.8Ukraine % 5 2 0 2 0 4 1 5Ukraine % 5.2 0.2 0.4 1.5Eastern Europe % 5 2 1 6 2 3 2 7Eastern Europe % 5.2 1.6 2.3 2.7W ld d % 4 0 3 2 2 8 3 4World d % 4.0 3.2 2.8 3.4

InflationUnited States % 3 2 2 1 1 6 1 9InflationUnited States % 3.2 2.1 1.6 1.9

Interest ratesUS prime rate e % 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3Interest ratesUS prime rate e % 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3

unit 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 aAustraliaAustraliaEconomic growth % 2 4 3 4 2 8 2 5Economic growth % 2.4 3.4 2.8 2.5I fl ti % 3 1 2 4 2 3 2 3Inflation % 3.1 2.4 2.3 2.3Interest rates g % 6.6 6.2 5.2 4.7Interest rates gAustralian exchange ratesAustralian exchange ratesUS$/A$ 0 99 1 03 1 02 0 92US$/A$ 0.99 1.03 1.02 0.92

$TWI for A$ h 74 76 77 72$a ABARES assumption. b Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. c Excludes Hong Kong. dWeighted using 2012 purchasing‐power‐parity (PPP) valuation of country gross domestic product by the International Monetary Fund. e Commercial bank prime lending rates in the United States. g Large business weighted average variable rate on credit outstanding.h Base: May 1970 = 100.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Monetary Fund; Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development; Reserve Bank of Australia

a ABARES assumption. b Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. c Excludes Hong Kong. dWeighted using 2012 purchasing‐power‐parity (PPP) valuation of country gross domestic product by the International Monetary Fund. e Commercial bank prime lending rates in the United States. g Large business weighted average variable rate on credit outstanding.h Base: May 1970 = 100.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Monetary Fund; Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development; Reserve Bank of Australia








9

Economic overview


Economic prospects in Australia’s major export markets

United StatesEconomic activity in the United States remained subdued in the second half of 2013 partly because of continued government spending cuts. Real gross domestic product rose at a year-on-year rate of 1.8 per cent in the September quarter 2013, following growth of 1.6 per cent in the June quarter and 1.3 per cent in the March quarter.

Failure by the US Congress to agree to raise the debt ceiling in early October 2013 resulted in the government shutting down for 16 days. Although an agreement on temporary measures was reached, the reduction in government spending adversely affected financial market confidence and US economic activity in the December quarter 2013.

Spending by the US public sector declined at a year-on-year rate of 2.7 per cent in the September quarter 2013, after a decline of 2.0 per cent in the June quarter. Cuts in government spending have been concentrated at the federal level, where spending declined by 6.5 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter, after falling 4.1 per cent in the June quarter. Most spending cuts in 2013 have been to national defence. According to the International Monetary Fund, fiscal constraints have comprised 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product in 2013, although they are expected to have a smaller impact in 2014.

Growth in industrial production strengthened in the September quarter 2013, expanding by 2.5 per cent year-on-year compared with 2 per cent in the June quarter, but remaining below the 4 per cent of 2012 as a whole. Real export growth has also improved in recent quarters, increasing at a year-on-year rate of 2.8 per cent in the September quarter 2013, compared with 2.0 per cent and 1.0 per cent in the June and March quarters respectively. These gains were partly offset by higher imports in September 2013.

Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of gross domestic product, expanded at 1.8 per cent in the September quarter 2013, following growth of 1.9 per cent in the March and June quarters.

The US labour market has been recovering slowly. The unemployment rate in October was 7.3 per cent, compared with 7.6 per cent in June. However, the labour force shrank by 720 000 workers in October, leaving the participation rate at 62.8 per cent, a reduction of 1 percentage point from October 2012 and its lowest level in 35 years. This was partly because of the government shutdown. However, labour force participation has been declining in recent years as more workers are discouraged by poor job prospects.

Expectations that the US Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy in the next few months have led to higher mortgage rates. Activity in the housing market has softened with new home sales falling in September.

10

Economic overview


US labour market

% %

Unemployment rateParticipation rate(right axis)

3

6

9

12

15

63

64

65

66

67

Oct2013

Oct2012

Oct2011

Oct2010

Oct2009

Oct2008

Economic growth in the United States is assumed to average 1.5 per cent in 2013, strengthening to 2.2 per cent in 2014. However, considerable uncertainty associated with the government debt ceiling hangs over the outlook. Government funding is assured only until 15 January 2014 and the debt ceiling is suspended only until 7 February 2014.

ChinaReal gross domestic product expanded at a year-on-year rate of 7.8 per cent in the September quarter 2013, up from 7.5 per cent in the June quarter and 7.7 per cent in the March quarter. Growth has now remained below 8 per cent for six straight quarters.

Modest strengthening across a range of indicators in the September quarter has helped allay fears of a sharp growth slowdown after a credit crunch in June. Domestic demand showed signs of improvement in the three months to September 2013, with investment in fixed assets expanding at a year-on-year rate of 20.4 per cent, compared with the 19.8 per cent growth recorded in the second quarter. Retail sales have also strengthened, growing by 13.4 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter, up from a recent low of 12.4 per cent in the March quarter.

Growth in industrial production has shown signs of recovery in recent months, with year-on-year growth exceeding 10 per cent in August 2013 for the first time since 2012. However, export growth has been relatively weak. Exports grew at a year-on-year rate of 4 per cent in the September quarter 2013, compared with 8 per cent for the first nine months of 2013 and for 2012 as a whole. This compares with an average annual growth rate of 18 per cent over the two decades to 2011.

11

Economic overview


Partial indicators in China, year-on-year growth

%

Investment in �xed assetsRetail salesIndustrial production

5

10

15

20

25

30

Sep2013

Mar2013

Sep2012

Mar2012

Sep2011

Mar2011

Sep2010

Mar2010

In September, consumer prices increased at a year-on-year rate of 3.1 per cent, up from 2.6 per cent a month earlier. The increase was driven by food prices, which increased by 6.1 per cent as droughts in some regions and floods in others affected harvests. Non-food prices increased by only 1.6 per cent and inflation remains below the government target of 3.5 per cent.

Inflation rate in China

%

1

2

3

4

5

Sep2013

Jun2013

Mar2013

Dec2012

Sep2012

Jun2012

Mar2012

Dec2011

12

Economic overview


Growth is expected to moderate slightly in 2014, as the government starts implementing reforms. Since late last year, the Chinese Government has frequently stated that it is committed to reforming the economy, even if it means sacrificing some short-term growth. Several reforms have been announced following the November 2013 meeting of the government’s Central Committee, including encouraging private investment in state-owned enterprises, strengthening farmers’ land rights and accelerating reform of the financial system. However, much of the policy detail and timing of reforms remains to be announced.

A slowdown in credit growth is also expected to affect economic growth over the outlook period. Policymakers have been reluctant to promote rapid growth in credit to stimulate the economy because of concerns about financial system stability. In October 2013 the volume of new loans issued to consumers and businesses fell by 36 per cent compared with the previous month.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, economic growth in China is assumed to average 7.7 per cent in 2013 before moderating to 7.5 per cent in 2014.

JapanEconomic activity in Japan has strengthened in recent months, expanding at a year-on-year rate of 2.7 per cent in the September quarter, compared with growth of 1.1 per cent in the June quarter and 0.3 per cent in the March quarter.

In October 2013 the Japanese Government announced an increase in sales tax from 5.0 per cent to 8.0 per cent to take place from 1 April 2014. This measure was taken in response to concern about Japan’s public sector debt, which is equal to around 240 per cent of its gross domestic product. The increase in sales tax is expected to moderate growth in 2014, although this may be partially offset by further monetary easing or additional fiscal stimulus.

Public sector demand increased by 4.8 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter 2013, compared with 3.5 per cent in the June and March quarters. After falling by 0.1 per cent in March and growing by 0.5 per cent in June, private sector demand expanded 2.0 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter, reflecting increases in household consumption and in residential investment. Private sector demand is expected to continue to strengthen in the final quarter of 2013, as consumers bring forward their purchases before the sales tax increase in April 2014. Private non-residential investment has stabilised after declining in the first half of 2013.

Industrial production increased at a year-on-year rate of 5.1 per cent in September, following a decline of 0.4 per cent in August 2013. Most gains were in industries such as transport equipment and electronic parts and services, reflecting increased production of large passenger cars.

Merchandise exports increased 18.6 per cent year-on-year in October 2013, supported by the 23.7 per cent depreciation of the yen against the US dollar over the same period. The weaker yen also raised the price of imports, particularly fuel. The value of imports increased by 26.2 per cent year-on-year in October. With imports growing faster than exports, the trade deficit has increased and contributed to a narrowing of the current account surplus.

Consumer prices increased by 1.1 per cent year-on-year in October 2013, driven partly by the higher import prices.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, economic growth in Japan is assumed to average 1.8 per cent in 2013. It is assumed to ease to 1.2 per cent in 2014, reflecting a tighter fiscal policy.

13

Economic overview


Japan’s trade position

Trade balance

billionyen

billionyen

Exports (right axis)Imports (right axis)

Sep2013

Sep2012

Sep2011

Sep2010

Sep2009

Sep2008

Sep2007

3000

6000

9000

12 000

15 000

18 000

21 000

24 000

–3000

–2000

–1000

1000

2000

3000

4000

0

Western EuropeEconomic conditions in Western Europe improved in the September quarter 2013 year-on-year. In Germany, economic activity increased by 1.1 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter after 0.9 per cent growth in June and a contraction of 1.6 per cent in March 2013. In France, real gross domestic product increased at a year-on-year rate of 0.5 per cent in the September quarter following a similar growth rate in the June quarter.

Economic activity in the United Kingdom expanded at a year-on-year rate of 1.1 per cent in the September quarter 2013, compared with 0.9 per cent in June and 0.8 per cent in March 2013. This compares with growth of 0.1 per cent for 2012 as a whole.

Fiscal consolidation continues to act as a drag on growth in some countries, although the pace of government spending cuts declined in 2013. For the euro area as a whole, government consumption expenditure accounted for 0.1 percentage points of the year-on-year growth in the June quarter, contributing positively to growth for the first time in two years.

In response to below-target inflation and the slow rate of recovery in the euro area, the European Central Bank reduced interest rates to record lows in November 2013. The bank cut its main refinancing rate and its emergency borrowing rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 0.25 per cent and 0.75 per cent, respectively. It stated that it would continue accommodating monetary policy as long as necessary to achieve inflation close to 2.0 per cent.

Private consumption continued to rise in the September quarter but remains weak. According to the European Central Bank, the volume of retail sales in the euro area averaged 0.6 per cent higher in the September quarter than in the three months to June.

14

Economic overview


Industrial production index

index2010=

100

ItalyFranceGermany

Sep2013

Sep2012

Sep2011

Sep2010

Sep2009

Sep2008

United Kingdom

90

100

110

120

130

Real exports have also shown signs of recovery. German exports increased at a year-on-year rate of 0.7 per cent in the September quarter after growing by 1.1 per cent in June and contracting by 2.9 per cent in March. French exports also increased in the past two quarters, growing at a year-on-year rate of 1.0 per cent and 0.6 per cent in March and June 2013, respectively. However, in the United Kingdom, exports decreased 4.2 per cent in the September quarter, reversing gains made in the June quarter.

Despite improving export figures in some regional economies, industrial production remains weak. It fell in France and Italy in the September quarter, contracting at a year-on-year rate of 1.4 per cent and 4.2 per cent, respectively. Industrial production in Italy remains more than 30 per cent lower than before the global financial crisis.

Unemployment remains high in most European countries, with the unemployment rate reaching 12.5 per cent in Italy in September and 11.1 per cent in France. By contrast, Germany’s unemployment rate fell to 5.2 per cent in September, the lowest in decades.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, economic activity in Western Europe is assumed to grow by 0.2 per cent in 2013. Some recovery is expected in 2014, with growth in economic activity assumed to increase to 1.1 per cent, as private demand is supported by accommodating monetary policy and the pace of fiscal consolidation continues to slow. However, given the slow and bumpy recovery so far, there is considerable uncertainty to the outlook.

Non-OECD AsiaEconomic activity in non-OECD Asia moderated in the past few quarters, although performance was uneven. In Indonesia, real gross domestic product grew at a year-on-year rate of 5.6 per cent in the September quarter 2013, down from 5.8 per cent in June and 6.0 per cent in March. By contrast, economic growth strengthened in Malaysia because of robust domestic demand, which was buoyed by government cash transfers and increases in public sector wages. Economic activity expanded by 5.0 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter, compared with 4.3 per cent for the first half of 2013.

15

Economic overview


Selected Asian official interest rates

%

VietnamIndiaIndonesiaThailand

2

4

6

8

10

29 Nov2013

30 Sep2013

31 Jul2013

31 May2013

31 Mar2013

31 Jan2013

In response to moderating growth, most countries in the region adopted accommodating monetary or fiscal policy to support demand in the first five months of 2013. However, since May, some countries have raised interest rates amid concerns about capital outflows. Intermediate and long-term Treasury bond yields in the United States increased in May and June, resulting in narrower interest rate differentials between US bonds and emerging market assets. Capital inflows that had been attracted by relatively high interest rates in some Asian countries began to reverse, leading to increased inflationary pressures through the effect of depreciating exchange rates.

Capital outflows were particularly significant in India and Indonesia. In India, the rupee fell by more than 20 per cent against the US dollar between the beginning of May and the end of August as investors sold off Indian assets in the face of concerns about the sustainability of India’s fiscal and current account deficits. Recent imposition of controls on capital movements and domestic interest rate increases have helped reverse the fall in the value of the rupee. However, tighter monetary policy can be expected to impede growth.

Growth in Asia

2014a

2013a

2012

Korea,Republic of

TaiwanIndia

China

Singapore

Vietnam

Philippines

Malaysia

Indonesia

Thailand

%

2

4

6

8

10


16

Economic overview


For non-OECD Asia, economic activity is assumed to grow by 6.3 per cent in both 2013 and 2014. Many countries in the region will benefit from an assumed increase in demand from Europe and the United States in 2014, although growth in Indonesia is assumed to slow as interest rate increases over the last six months of 2013 are expected to reduce domestic demand.

Economic prospects in AustraliaEconomic growth slowed in the September quarter 2013, when real gross domestic product grew at a year-on-year rate of 2.3 per cent compared with growth of 2.6 per cent in the June quarter.

Record low interest rates are expected to continue to lift consumer spending and business investment, particularly in interest sensitive areas such as housing. However, this is expected to be partially offset by lower mining investment and government spending cuts. Economic growth in 2013–14 is assumed to average 2.5 per cent, following growth of 2.8 per cent in 2012–13.

Australian economic indicators

Interest rate bIn�ation rateEconomic growth

%

a ABARES assumption. b Large business weighted average variable rate on credit outstanding.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2013–14a2012–132011–12

Inflation and employmentInflation in Australia remains modest. The consumer price index rose by 2.2 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter 2013, compared with 2.4 per cent in the June quarter.

The most significant price rises in the September quarter included automotive fuel (up 7.6 per cent), international holiday travel and accommodation (6.1 per cent), electricity (4.4 per cent), property rates and charges (7.9 per cent), water and sewerage (9.9 per cent) and domestic holiday travel and accommodation (3.5 per cent). Partially offsetting these rises were price falls for vegetables (down 4.5 per cent) and pharmaceutical products (1.1 per cent).

Prices of imported goods have risen as they gradually responded to depreciation of the Australian dollar in 2013.

Unemployment increased slightly in October to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.7 per cent, while labour force participation declined by 0.6 percentage points in the first 10 months of 2013.

17

Economic overview


Australian exchange rateThe Australian dollar depreciated by 16 per cent against the US dollar between mid April and early August 2013, followed by an appreciation of 4 per cent between mid August and the beginning of November. The average for the first five months of 2013–14 was around US93 cents, significantly lower than US102 cents in 2012–13. This will provide some support for Australia’s export and import competing industries, although the Australian dollar remains high by historical standards.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, the Australian dollar is assumed to average around US92 cents for 2013–14 as a whole. On a trade weighted basis, it is assumed to average around TWI 72 for the year.

The volatility of the Australian dollar against the US dollar in 2013–14 partly reflects speculation on US economic policy. Between June and August, the Australian dollar depreciated as the strengthening US economy led to expectations of lower asset purchases by the US Federal Reserve in September 2013. However, the Federal Reserve maintained its pace of asset purchases, and sentiment toward the US dollar deteriorated in response to the government shutdown in October. This contributed, at least in part, to an appreciation of the Australian dollar between mid September and early November 2013.

Some depreciation of the Australian dollar could occur in the first half of 2014 with slower fiscal consolidation and a possible tightening of monetary policy in the United States. However, any further fiscal impasse would provide support to the Australian dollar. Assumed stronger growth in Australia than in the United States in 2014 is also expected to provide some support.

The rebound of Chinese growth and demand for commodities in the second half of 2013 has led to stronger demand for the Australian dollar. Further depreciation of the Australian dollar could result if growth in China is weaker than expected.

Given the uncertainty over movement of the Australian dollar, primary producers and exporters will need to manage risks related to exchange rate movements.

Australian exchange rate

US$/A$

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2


2013–14a

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1998–99

18

Economic overview


Outlook for Australian agricultural and fisheries exportsThe total volume of farm production is forecast to increase by around 2.9 per cent in 2013–14, following a decline of 2.0 per cent in 2012–13. This increase largely reflects higher forecast crop production.

The index of crop production is forecast to increase by 3.9 per cent in 2013–14, after declining by 6.4 per cent in 2012–13. The volume of livestock production is forecast to increase by 1.6 per cent, following an increase of 4.0 per cent in the previous year.

The index of unit export returns for Australian farm commodities is forecast to increase by 4.3 per cent in 2013–14, after declining by 2.6 per cent in 2012–13. The effect on unit export returns of forecast lower world prices for most crops is expected to be offset by higher expected world prices for dairy products, wool, wine and lamb and an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar.

Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $38.0 billion in 2013–14, largely unchanged from 2012–13. Farm commodities for which export earnings are forecast to be lower in 2013–14 include wheat (6 per cent), canola (31 per cent), cotton (19 per cent), rice (7 per cent), grain sorghum (24 per cent) and sugar (9 per cent). Offsetting these declines are forecast increases in export earnings for wine (up 4 per cent), beef and veal (12 per cent), dairy products (24 per cent) and barley (5 per cent).

Export earnings from crops are forecast to fall by 7.4 per cent in 2013–14 to $21.3 billion, following a rise of 6.7 per cent in 2012–13. Export earnings from livestock and livestock products are forecast to increase by 11.9 per cent to $16.7 billion in 2013–14, reflecting forecast higher shipments of beef and sheep meat and increased world prices for lamb and dairy products. This compares with an increase of 1.5 per cent in 2012–13.

Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to be around $1.25 billion in 2013–14, up 6.2 per cent from 2012–13.

19

Economic overview


Agriculture in northern Australia

Overview

Several factors are driving interest in agricultural development in northern Australia. These include favourable global demand prospects for Australia’s food and fibre production and proximity to emerging international markets, particularly in Asia where food demand is growing rapidly.

Northern Australia is a physically diverse region covering about 3 million square kilometres. It is usually defined as those parts of Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia north of the Tropic of Capricorn.

This analysis draws on 2010–11 Australian Bureau of Statistics Agricultural Census data, which provides the most recent and complete information on northern Australia’s agricultural industries.

Northern Australia, statistical divisions

Pilbara

Kimberley Northern Territory– Balance

Darwin

NorthWest

CentralWest

FarNorth

Northern

Mackay

Fitzroy

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Land involved in agricultural activity in northern Australia totals 183 million hectares. This represents almost half the agricultural land in Australia, but less than 9 per cent of Australia’s agricultural businesses. Most of the agricultural land area in northern Australia (including Indigenous pastoral land) is used for grazing purposes.

Land use on farms, 2010–11

Unit AustraliaNorthernAustralia

Share of total Australia

Businesses engaged in agricultural activity no. 135 654 11 817 8.7%

Total area of agricultural activity million ha 396.2 183.0 46.2%

Area used for crops million ha 32.1 1.2 3.7%

Area used for grazing million ha 364.0 181.8 49.9%

Area used for other agricultural purposes a million ha 0.1 0.0 0.0%

a Includes feedlots, piggeries and poultry sheds.

continued...

20

Economic overview


Agriculture in northern Australia continued

Value of production

Agriculture is a significant contributor to the northern Australian economy, with cattle production, and irrigated agriculture (particularly sugar) and horticulture the main industries. In 2010–11 the gross value of agricultural production in northern Australia (measured at the farm gate) was $5.2 billion.

Cattle production dominates across the north with cattle turn-off valued at $3.0 billion, or 57 per cent of the total gross value of agricultural production in 2010–11. The second largest industry in value was sugar cane production at $781.5 million (15 per cent of total agricultural production). Fruit and nut production was valued at $574.5 million (11 per cent), while vegetable growing, for both seed and consumption, was valued at $310.5 million (6 per cent). The production of cereals, grain legumes and oilseeds, important to several Queensland regions, was valued at $204.1 million in 2010–11 (4 per cent).

Gross value of agricultural production, northern Australia, 2010–11

GVP Share of total

$m %

Total agriculture 5 228.3 100.0

Broadacre crops

Cereals, grain legumes and oilseeds 204.1 3.9

Hay and pasture seed 58.2 1.1

Cotton 79.7 1.5

Sugar cane 781.5 14.9

Horticulture

Vegetables 310.5 5.9

Fruit and nuts 574.5 11.0

Nurseries, cut flowers and turf 60.1 1.1

Livestock slaughter and other disposals

Sheep and lambs 23.6 0.5

Cattle and calves 2 958.1 56.6

Pigs 10.7 0.2

Goats 9.6 0.2

Poultry 35.1 0.7

Livestock products

Wool 46.9 0.9

Milk 46.4 0.9

Eggs 11.6 0.2

continued...

21

Economic overview


Agriculture in northern Australia continued

Main agricultural activities

Approximately 11.7 million beef cattle (45 per cent of the national herd) were located in northern Australia as at June 2011. Other major agricultural production in 2010–11 included:

• sugar cane (20.3 million tonnes) cut for crushing• bananas (185 200 tonnes), melons (81 700 tonnes), mangoes (33 800 tonnes),

pineapples (19 600 tonnes), citrus (10 000 tonnes), avocados (7800 tonnes) and pawpaws/papaya (6400 tonnes)

• tomatoes (48 300 tonnes), potatoes (47 500 tonnes), pumpkins (28 400 tonnes), capsicums (25 800 tonnes), sweet corn (17 900 tonnes) and beans (10 800 tonnes)

• grain sorghum (299 500 tonnes), wheat (288 200 tonnes), chickpeas (58 400 tonnes), maize (53 100 tonnes), mung beans (23 100 tonnes) and peanuts (8200 tonnes)

• hay (225 200 tonnes) cut from both cereal crops and pasture to support the cattle industry across the north

• cotton lint (35 500 tonnes) and cottonseed (92 300 tonnes).

22

Economic overview


Effect of the Queensland drought on livestock and crop productionClay Mifsud

At the end of October 2013, around 60 per cent of Queensland’s total land area was drought declared; 20 shires were fully declared and a further five shires partially declared. While rain fell in some of these regions at the end of November, large areas of western Queensland continued to experience severe rainfall deficiencies.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal rainfall outlook for December 2013 to February 2014 indicates drier than average conditions are likely to continue for much of north-eastern Australia. The ongoing dry conditions have contributed to increased turn-off of cattle for slaughter and reduced winter crop yields. If dry conditions persist, they could adversely affect summer crops in 2013–14.

Queensland drought declarations, as at 29 October 2013

Source: Queensland Government

Drought declared

Partly drought declared

>40% IDPs

20–40% IDPs

10–20% IDPs

<10% IDPs

(IDPs = individually droughted properties)

continued...

23

Economic overview


Effect of the Queensland drought on livestock and crop production continued

Beef cattle

Cattle and calf slaughter in Queensland over the first four months of 2013–14, at 1.5 million head, was 12 per cent higher than the same period last year. This followed a 7 per cent rise in cattle and calf slaughter over the whole of 2012–13, to 3.8 million head. The number of cattle turned off from feedlots in Queensland during the September quarter 2013 was 19 per cent higher year-on-year, at 425 000 head.

Elevated cattle turn-off was reflected in beef and veal production in Queensland, which increased by 7 per cent year-on-year to 418 000 tonnes over the first four months of 2013–14. This came after a 6 per cent increase in beef and veal production over the whole of 2012–13, to 1.1 million tonnes.

Increased beef processing resulted in a corresponding increase in beef exports. For the four months to October 2013, beef exports from Queensland reached 253 000 tonnes (shipped weight), 13 per cent higher year-on-year. However, this rise understates the total rise in exports because a large number of Queensland cattle were processed in southern abattoirs and exported from southern ports when Queensland processing plants reached capacity. Total Australian beef and veal exports over the four months to October 2013 were 19 per cent higher year-on-year, reaching 404 000 tonnes.

Winter crops

Harvesting of winter crops is largely complete in Queensland. Total winter crop production in Queensland is estimated to have fallen by around 20 per cent in 2013–14 to 1.6 million tonnes, largely reflecting a decline in average yields resulting from unfavourable growing conditions. The total area sown to winter crops was around 1.1 million hectares, 6 per cent lower than the previous year. Hot and dry seasonal conditions during spring followed unfavourable conditions over winter. Some crops in southern Queensland were adversely affected by frost events and yields are estimated to have been lower than last year.

Wheat production in Queensland is estimated to have declined by 21 per cent in 2013–14 to 1.2 million tonnes, from a planted area of around 800 000 hectares. Barley production is estimated to have fallen by around 15 per cent in 2013–14 to around 138 000 tonnes. The area sown to barley increased marginally to around 90 000 hectares.

Chickpea production is estimated to have decreased by 17 per cent in 2013–14 to around 296 000 tonnes, from an estimated area of 216 000 hectares. The area planted to chickpeas declined only marginally from the record area planted last season. However, frosts in late August, below average rainfall and well above average spring temperatures are estimated to have reduced the average yield by around 16 per cent.

continued...

24

Economic overview


Effect of the Queensland drought on livestock and crop production continued

Summer crops

Hot and dry seasonal conditions over winter and spring depleted soil moisture levels and created unfavourable conditions for the planting of summer crops. The area planted to summer crops in Queensland in 2013–14 is forecast to decrease by 9 per cent to around 613 000 hectares. Timely November rainfall has improved summer crop prospects in parts of central Queensland and the Darling Downs and further rainfall may result in additional planting. Given the current low levels of soil moisture, sufficient and timely rainfall will be vital for the development of crops. The continuation of dry conditions across south-west Queensland will limit summer cropping in that region in 2013–14.

The area planted to grain sorghum in Queensland is forecast to decrease by around 7 per cent in 2013–14 to 380 000 hectares. Grain sorghum production is forecast to decrease by 25 per cent to just over 1 million tonnes in 2013–14.

Cotton production in Queensland is forecast to fall by 2 per cent in 2013–14 to around 333 000 tonnes of cotton lint and 471 000 tonnes of cottonseed, driven by an estimated 8 per cent decline in the area planted to cotton.

25

Economic overview


Effect of the Queensland drought on farm financial performancePeter Martin

Each year, ABARES interviews around 1600 Australian broadacre producers as part of its annual Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey (AAGIS). Some 200 of these farms are located in the currently drought declared areas of Queensland.

According to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data, the drought declared regions of Queensland contain around 4200 farm businesses, 72 per cent of which are broadacre farms that run beef cattle or sheep or grow grains, oilseeds or pulses. Information collected in the AAGIS provides a basis for analysing the current financial performance of the broadacre farms in these regions and expected changes in the short term.

Major financial performance indicators and ABARES farm survey methodology

Total cash receipts: total revenues received by the business during the financial year

Total cash costs: payments made by the business for materials and services and for permanent and casual hired labour (excluding owner–manager, partner and family labour)

Farm cash income: total cash receipts – total cash costs

Farm business profit: farm cash income + changes in trading stocks – depreciation – imputed labour costs

Methodology

ABARES surveys target farm businesses with an estimated value of agricultural operations exceeding $40 000, which effectively excludes small lifestyle farms from the survey coverage. Detailed physical, financial and management information is collected on each individual farm business and sample farms are selected and weighted to be representative of the target population at state, industry and regional level.

Data provided in this note have been collected through on-farm interviews and incorporate detailed farm financial accounting information.

Estimates for 2011–12 are final. All data from farmers, including accounting information, have been reconciled. Final production and population information from the ABS has been included and no further change is expected in the estimates.

The 2012–13 estimates are preliminary, based on full production and accounting information from farmers. However, editing and addition of sample farms may be undertaken and ABS production benchmarks may also change.

The 2013–14 projections are based on data collected through on-farm interviews and telephone interviews between October and December 2013. The 2013–14 projections include crop and livestock production, receipts and expenditure up to the date of interview, together with expected production, receipts and expenditure for the remainder of 2013–14.

continued...

26

Economic overview


Effect of the Queensland drought on farm financial performance continued

Overall, farm cash income of broadacre farms in drought declared areas of Queensland is projected to decline from an average of $148 400 a farm in 2012–13 to an average of just $55 000 a farm in 2013–14. Farm cash income projected for 2013–14 is around 45 per cent below the average farm cash income in real terms recorded for the 10 years to 2011–12.

Farm business profit is expected to decline from an average profit of $24 200 a farm in 2012–13 to an average loss of $52 000 a farm in 2013–14. If realised, this would be the lowest farm business profit since 2002–03 and the second lowest in the past 25 years in real terms. The larger decline in farm business profit is a consequence of reductions in beef cattle and grain inventories on farms.

The financial performance of broadacre farms across these regions declined moderately in 2012–13 as seasonal conditions turned drier after two very wet years in 2010–11 and 2011–12. Receipts from beef cattle declined slightly, the fall in beef cattle prices just offsetting the increase in the number of cattle sold. Overall, receipts from grain sales increased because of higher prices for grain sold in 2012–13. Expenditure on fodder purchase almost doubled. However, expenditure on cattle and sheep purchase was sharply reduced and together with lower interest payments resulted in a small reduction in average total cash costs overall. Reductions in herd sizes on some farms and a slowing in growth of beef herds on others resulted in a lower value of inventories and a decline in business profit from an average of $90 820 a farm in 2011–12 to $24 200 in 2012–13.

In 2013–14 receipts from the sale of beef cattle are expected to again decline, mainly because of the sale of less finished, lower weight cattle. Sale numbers are expected to remain relatively high. Lower receipts are expected from grain, oilseed and pulse crops because of lower yields from winter crops. Prospects for 2013–14 summer grain and oilseed crops remain uncertain, with a very dry start to the summer cropping season, but with some rain received in the last weeks of November.

Farm financial performance, broadacre farms in Queensland drought declared regions average per farm

2011–12 2012–13p 2013–14y

Total cash receipts $ 536 380 545 100 (8) 460 000

Total cash costs $ 392 930 396 700 (7) 405 000

Farm cash income $ 143 440 148 400 (16) 55 000

Farm business profit $ 90 820 24 200 (73) –52 000

p Preliminary estimates. y Provisional estimates. Note: Figures in parentheses are standard errors expressed as a percentage of the estimate provided.

continued...

27

Economic overview


Effect of the Queensland drought on farm financial performance continued

Overall in 2013–14 total cash receipts are projected to decline by around 18 per cent. Expenditure on fodder purchase is expected to increase further, but is expected to be partly offset by further reductions in expenditure on livestock purchase and crop materials. Should there be substantial improvement in seasonal conditions in early 2014, this would result in increased expenditure on livestock purchase and cropping materials and a larger increase in average total cash costs, leading to a further reduction in farm cash income and business profit for 2013–14.

ABARES will publish comprehensive updated farm financial performance information from surveys of broadacre and dairy farms for 2012–13 and 2013–14, for all states, in the March 2014 edition of Agricultural commodities.

Real financial performance, broadacre farms in Queensland drought declared regions average per farm

2013–14$’000

Farm cash incomeFarm business pro�t

y ABARES Provisional estimate.Source: AAGIS

2013–14y

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1998–99

1995–96

–100

–50

0

50

100

150

200

250

28

Economic overview


Major indicators of Australia’s agriculture and natural resources based sectors

Major indicators of Australia's agriculture and natural resources sectorMajorindicatorsofAustralia sagricultureandnaturalresourcessectorchange from change from

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 previous year2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 previous year–09 –10 –11 –12 s –13 s –14 f 2012–13 2013–14–09 –10 –11 –12 s –13 s –14 f 2012–13 2013–14

% %% %Exchange rate US$/A$ 0 75 0 88 0 99 1 03 1 02 0 92 1 0 9 8Exchange rate US$/A$ 0.75 0.88 0.99 1.03 1.02 0.92 –1.0 –9.8Unit returns aFarm index 100.0 88.0 97.4 97.9 95.4 99.5 –2.6 4.3Farm Value of exportsValue of exportsF b A$ 31 075 27 793 31 809 36 317 37 972 38 043 4 6 0 2Farm b A$m 31 075 27 793 31 809 36 317 37 972 38 043 4.6 0.2

$– crops A$m 16 361 14 890 17 313 21 583 23 023 21 315 6.7 –7.4 crops – livestock A$m 14 714 12 903 14 496 14 735 14 949 16 728 1.5 11.9 livestock A$m 14 714 12 903 14 496 14 735 14 949 16 728 1.5 11.9Fisheries products A$m 1 529 1 246 1 248 1 227 1 175 1 248 –4.2 6.2Fisheries products A$m 1 529 1 246 1 248 1 227 1 175 1 248 –4.2 6.2

Gross value of production cFarm A$m 41 929 39 666 46 981 48 049 47 892 50 896 –0.3 6.3Gross value of production cFarm A$m 41 929 39 666 46 981 48 049 47 892 50 896 0.3 6.3– crops A$m 22 769 21 137 25 943 26 830 27 778 28 790 3 5 3 6– crops A$m 22 769 21 137 25 943 26 830 27 778 28 790 3.5 3.6livestock A$m 19 160 18 529 21 038 21 219 20 114 22 106 5 2 9 9– livestock A$m 19 160 18 529 21 038 21 219 20 114 22 106 –5.2 9.9

F t d fi h i A$ 3 973 3 967 4 092 3 963 3 909 4 136 1 4 5 8Forestry and fisheries A$m 3 973 3 967 4 092 3 963 3 909 4 136 –1.4 5.8f t– forestry A$m 1 759 1 776 1 851 1 647 1 508 1 691 –8.4 12.2y $

– fisheries A$m 2 214 2 191 2 241 2 316 2 401 2 445 3.6 1.8– fisheries A$m 2 214 2 191 2 241 2 316 2 401 2 445 3.6 1.8

V l f f d i d i d 107 9 107 5 114 2 119 9 117 5 120 9 2 0 2 9Volume of farm production d index 107.9 107.5 114.2 119.9 117.5 120.9 –2.0 2.9– crops index 113.2 114.4 126.2 138.2 129.3 134.3 –6.4 3.9p– livestock index 100.6 98.7 100.6 100.5 104.5 106.2 4.0 1.6– livestock index 100.6 98.7 100.6 100.5 104.5 106.2 4.0 1.6Production area and livestock numbersC ( i d il d ) ’ hProduction area and livestock numbersCrop area (grains and oilseeds) ’000 ha 24 095 23 787 23 946 24 295 23 625 23 591 –2.8 –0.1p (g )Sheep million 72.7 68.1 73.1 74.7 73.8 71.9 –1.2 –2.6Sheep million 72.7 68.1 73.1 74.7 73.8 71.9 1.2 2.6Cattle million 27.9 26.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 27.9 0.0 –1.8Cattle million 27.9 26.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 27.9 0.0 1.8

F t A$ 36 631 34 460 36 515 37 334 37 118 37 741 0 6 1 7Farm costs A$m 36 631 34 460 36 515 37 334 37 118 37 741 –0.6 1.7Net cash income e A$m 5 865 9 997 15 410 15 787 15 973 18 486 1.2 15.7Net cash income e A$m 5 865 9 997 5 4 0 5 787 5 973 8 486 . 5.7Net value of farm production g A$m 5 298 5 205 10 466 10 715 10 774 13 155 0.6 22.1Net value of farm production g A$m 5 298 5 205 10 466 10 715 10 774 13 155 0.6 22.1

’ f dFarmers’ terms of trade index 88.5 88.6 96.4 93.5 95.8 98.9 2.5 3.2EmploymentAgriculture forestry and fishing ’000 363 369 350 335 321 na 4 0 naEmploymentAgriculture, forestry and fishing ’000 363 369 350 335 321 na –4.0 naA li ’Australia ’000 10 899 11 003 11 290 11 419 11 563 na 1.3 na

a Base: 2008–09 = 100. b Series revised back to 1988–89. c For a definition of the gross value of farm production see Table 13. d Chain weighted basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. e Gross value of farm production less total cash costs. f ABARES forecast. g Gross value of farm production less total farm costs. na Not available. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics








29

Economic overview


Major Australian agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity exports

WorldpriceValue ValueVolume

Wheat, cotton, sugar, canola and rice are world indicator prices in US$. All other commodities are export unit returnsor domestic prices in A$. For export value, annual forecasts are the sum of quarterly forecasts. As a result, annual export values do not necessarily re�ect variations in export volumes, world prices and exchange rates.

2013–14

2012–13

2013–14 f

$b

f ABARES forecast.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Rice

Rocklobster

Mutton

Lamb

Sugar

Canola

Barley

Wine

Cotton

Dairy

Wool

Beef and veal

Wheat–6%

+12%

+3%

+24%

–19%

+4%

+5%

–31%

–9%

+9%

+25%

+8%

–7%

–13%

+7%

–2%

–1%

–24%

+2%

+15%

–25%

–1%

–1%

+10%

+1%

–8%

–9%

+3%

+6%

+25%

–2%

+3%

–9%

–20%

–6%

+9%

+13%

+7%

–19%

$6.78b

$4.87b

$2.87b

$2.23b

$2.69b

$1.87b

$1.63b

$2.09b

$1.40b

$1.09b

$0.48b

$0.45b

$0.49b

$6.37b

$5.43b

$2.96b

$2.77b

$2.18b

$1.95b

$1.71b

$1.44b

$1.28b

$1.18b

$0.60b

$0.48b

$0.45b

31

Economic overview


AgricultureCrops


WheatChristopher Price

The world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, fob Gulf) is forecast to fall by 9 per cent in 2013–14 to average US$315 a tonne. This largely reflects an expected increase in world wheat production, following a drought-affected season for the Black Sea region (the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan) in 2012–13. The downward pressure on the world indicator price (which is of high protein, milling grade wheat) is expected to be cushioned to some extent by production downgrades in some major producing countries. This will lead to lower production of higher protein varieties, particularly in the United States. For medium and lower protein wheat varieties, prices on world markets are expected to decline by more than the fall in the indicator price.

World wheat supply and price

Supply

Mt2013–14US$/t

US hard red winter,fob Gulf (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

200

400

600

800

1000

100

200

300

400

500

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

33

Wheat


World production to increase in 2013–14World wheat production is forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2013–14 to 705 million tonnes. This reflects an expected increase in production in the Black Sea region, following a drought-affected season last year. Production is also forecast to increase in the other major exporting countries, except the United States.

Wheat production changes, major producers, 2013–14

Mt

Volume changePercentage change(right axis)

–5

5

10

15

20

25

30

India

China

United States

EuropeanUnion

Canada

Black Searegion

Australia

Argentina

%

–10

10

20

30

40

50

60

In the Black Sea region, wheat production increased by an estimated 41 per cent in 2013–14 to 89 million tonnes. Production in the Russian Federation is estimated to have increased by 35 per cent to 51 million tonnes. This was driven by an 18 per cent increase in harvested area and a 14 per cent increase in the average yield. Wheat production in Ukraine and Kazakhstan increased by an estimated 40 per cent and 63 per cent, respectively, to 22 million tonnes and 16 million tonnes. Wet conditions during July and August resulted in quality downgrades in many regions.

Wheat production in the European Union is estimated to have increased by 8 per cent in 2013–14 to 143 million tonnes. This largely reflects an estimated 7 per cent rise in the average yield to 5.5 tonnes per hectare, the highest since 2008–09. Crop quality across the European Union has been generally good.

In Canada, wheat production increased by an estimated 38 per cent in 2013–14 to 38 million tonnes. The area harvested is estimated to have increased by 8 per cent, with a record average yield of 3.6 tonnes per hectare. The average quality in terms of grades and protein was lower than last season.

Total wheat production in the United States declined by an estimated 6 per cent in 2013–14 to 58 million tonnes. This largely reflects drought conditions throughout the growing season in many major winter wheat areas, including Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. The dry conditions resulted in the highest abandonment rate of winter wheat since 2002–03. Seasonal conditions were more favourable for spring wheat, which typically accounts for just over a quarter of total US wheat production.

34

Wheat


In Argentina, wheat production is forecast to increase by 24 per cent in 2013–14 to 10.5 million tonnes. This reflects an estimated 17 per cent rise in the harvested area and a forecast 6 per cent increase in the average yield. Although crop prospects were adversely affected by dry seasonal conditions during August and early September, particularly in northern growing areas, subsequent rainfall benefited crops in southern growing areas where most wheat production occurs.

Wheat production in China and India is estimated to have declined slightly in 2013–14 but remains historically high. In China, frost damage during winter and excessive rainfall during harvest resulted in a large proportion of production being downgraded to feed quality.

Progress of winter wheat planting for 2014–15Winter wheat planting in the northern hemisphere for the 2014–15 season has been largely completed and is expected to be similar in area to the 2013–14 season. Wet weather during July and August delayed sowing in the Russian Federation and Ukraine but drier seasonal conditions in September led to accelerated sowing toward the end of the planting window.

World consumption and stocks to rise in 2013–14World consumption of wheat is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2013–14 to 694 million tonnes. The use of wheat for human consumption is expected to increase in line with population growth, while feed use is forecast to increase by 4 per cent to 137 million tonnes. Higher feed wheat use is expected to be driven by lower prices, which reflects a large increase in feed wheat supplies. However, expected lower prices of feed wheat substitutes, such as corn, are expected to moderate the extent of the increase in feed wheat demand.

World wheat closing stocks are forecast to rise by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to 186 million tonnes, with the stocks-to-use ratio increasing to 27 per cent. Closing stocks are forecast to increase in most major producing countries except the United States and India.

World wheat closing stocks

Closing stocks

Mt %

Stocks-to-use ratio(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

10

20

30

40

50

40

80

120

160

200

35

Wheat


Trade to increase in 2013–14World wheat trade is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2013–14 to 148 million tonnes in response to higher world production and stronger demand, particularly from China and Egypt.

The forecast increase in wheat production in the Black Sea region is expected to lead to a 27 per cent increase in regional wheat exports in 2013–14 to 32 million tonnes.

Black Sea region wheat exports

KazakhstanUkraineRussian Federation

Mt

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

f ABARES forecast.

For other major exporters, shipments are also forecast to rise. Higher production is expected to result in increased exports from Canada, Argentina and the European Union. Despite an estimated decline in production, wheat exports from the United States are forecast to increase, supported by a drawdown in stocks.

Wheat exports from India are forecast to be largely unchanged in 2013–14, at around 6.6 million tonnes. Recently, the Indian Government lowered the minimum export price for government tenders by US$40 to US$260 a tonne (free on board) to make Indian wheat exports more price competitive on world markets. Most wheat exports from India are of mid-protein varieties.

36

Wheat


Australia Wheat production to increase in 2013–14Australian wheat production is forecast to increase by 17 per cent in 2013–14 to around 26.2 million tonnes. Production increases are forecast in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria, while falls in production are forecast in New South Wales and Queensland.

The largest increase in production is expected to be in Western Australia, where production is forecast to rise by 45 per cent in 2013–14 to around 9.6 million tonnes. Seasonal conditions during spring were favourable across most of Western Australia’s cropping zone. September rainfall was above to very much above average in many cropping regions, benefiting maturing crops in the central and southern regions of the state. If this production forecast is realised, Western Australian wheat production this season would be the third highest on record.

In South Australia, wheat production is forecast to rise by 39 per cent in 2013–14 to 5.2 million tonnes, largely driven by forecast above average yields. Rainfall during spring was below average and temperatures were above average. However, favourable seasonal conditions during winter put crops in good condition at the start of spring.

Production in Victoria is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2013–14 to 3.6 million tonnes. The forecast increase reflects an estimated 2 per cent rise in planted area and a slightly higher average yield than last season.

By contrast, wheat production in New South Wales is forecast to fall by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to around 6.7 million tonnes and by 21 per cent in Queensland to 1.2 million tonnes. Hot and dry seasonal conditions in both states during spring followed unfavourable seasonal conditions during winter. Frost events also adversely affected crops in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales in August and in central and southern New South Wales in October. Yields in both states are expected to be generally lower than last year.

Australian wheat production

OtherQueenslandVictoria

Mt

South AustraliaNew South Wales

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

f ABARES forecast.

Western Australia

5

10

15

20

25

30

37

Wheat


Australian export earnings to fall in 2013–14The volume of Australian wheat exports is forecast to decline by 13 per cent in 2013–14 to around 18.6 million tonnes. Although wheat production is forecast to increase, the supply of wheat available for export is expected to decline because of lower carry-over stocks from the 2012–13 season. The value of wheat exports is forecast to decline by 6 per cent to $6.4 billion.

Australian wheat exports

Mt

Export volumeExport value(right axis)

2013–14$b

2

4

6

8

10

5

10

15

20

25

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

f ABARES forecast.

38

Wheat


Wheat outlook

% 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

% change2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f change

W ldWorldProduction Mt 695 655 705 7.7Production Mt 695 655 705 7.7– China Mt 117 121 121 –0 1– China Mt 117 121 121 –0.1European Union Mt 137 132 143 8 3– European Union Mt 137 132 143 8.3I di Mt 87 95 93 2 5– India Mt 87 95 93 –2.5

– Russian Federation Mt 56 38 51 35.2– United States Mt 54 62 58 –6.0 United States Mt 54 62 58 6.0

Consumption Mt 696 673 694 3 1Consumption Mt 696 673 694 3.1h 6 66– human Mt 461 466 471 1.1

– feed Mt 153 131 137 4.4 feed Mt 153 131 137 4.4

Closing stocks Mt 194 175 186 6 3Closing stocks Mt 194 175 186 6.3St k t ti % 28 26 27Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 28 26 27Trade Mt 145 141 148 5.1Exports aExports a– Argentina Mt 13 4 5 19 0– Argentina Mt 13 4 5 19.0Australia b M 23 21 19 12 6– Australia b Mt 23 21 19 –12.6C d– Canada Mt 18 20 23 15.4Mt 18 20 23 15.4

– European Union Mt 17 24 25 7.7 European Union Mt 17 24 25 7.7– Kazakhstan Mt 11 7 8 7 6– Kazakhstan Mt 11 7 8 7.6– Russian Federation Mt 22 11 15 35 9– Russian Federation Mt 22 11 15 35.9Ukraine Mt 5 7 9 32 9– Ukraine Mt 5 7 9 32.9U it d St t– United States Mt 29 27 30 9.2

Price c US$/t 299 348 315 –9 4Price c US$/t 299 348 315 –9.4AustraliaArea ’000 ha 13 902 12 773 13 512 5.8Area 000 ha 13 902 12 773 13 512 5.8Production kt 29 905 22 461 26 213 16 7Production kt 29 905 22 461 26 213 16.7Exports b kt 23 026 21 265 18 579 12 6Exports b kt 23 026 21 265 18 579 –12.6

l A$ 6 378 6 776 6 372 6 0– value A$m 6 378 6 776 6 372 –6.0APW 10 net pool return A$/t 263 326 333 2.2APW 10 net pool return A$/t 263 326 333 2.2a Local marketing years. b July–June years. c US no. 2 hard red winter wheat fob Gulf, July–June.f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

a Local marketing years. b July–June years. c US no. 2 hard red winter wheat fob Gulf, July–June.f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics




39ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 3 no. 4 • December quarter 2013

The world coarse grains indicator price (US corn, fob Gulf) is forecast to fall by 29 per cent in 2013–14 to US$220 a tonne. This mostly reflects a record corn harvest in the United States. The world indicator price for barley (French Rouen feed) is forecast to fall by 18 per cent to US$243 a tonne, driven by an increase in world barley supplies.

World coarse grains prices

2013–14US$/t

French Rouen feed barleyUS corn, fob Gulf ports

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Coarse grainsDavid Mobsby

40

Coarse grains


Record US corn crop in 2013–14World coarse grains production is forecast to increase by 11 per cent in 2013–14 to 1.25 billion tonnes, largely driven by an increase in corn production.

World coarse grains production

Other Barley Corn

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

CornWorld corn production is forecast to rise by 12 per cent in 2013–14 to 964 million tonnes, driven by a large rise in production in the United States.

In the United States, corn production is estimated to increase by 30 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 355 million tonnes, reflecting a 30 per cent increase in the average yield compared with the previous drought-affected season. The condition of the US corn crop improved late in the season. The proportion of the crop rated as being in good to excellent condition rose from a low of 53 per cent earlier in the season to 62 per cent in October 2013. The harvested area was largely unchanged from the previous season.

In China, corn production is estimated to increase by 3 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 211 million tonnes, which reflects an estimated 1 per cent increase in the average yield and a 2 per cent increase in harvested area.

In Ukraine, corn production is estimated to rise by 39 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 29 million tonnes, primarily reflecting a forecast 30 per cent increase in the average yield. The Russian Federation is estimated to produce a record corn crop of around 9 million tonnes, an increase of 10 per cent compared with the previous season.

41

Coarse grains


Corn production in the Black Sea region

Russian Federation Ukraine

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

Corn production in Latin America (Argentina and Brazil) is forecast to decline in 2013–14. In Brazil, corn production is forecast to fall by 14 per cent to 70 million tonnes, reflecting a decrease in planted area because of more favourable returns from producing soybeans. Corn yields are forecast to return to average from the above average results of 2012–13.

In Argentina, corn production is forecast to fall by 7 per cent in 2013–14 to 25 million tonnes, with dry seasonal conditions delaying planting of the 2013–14 corn crop. Planting of the 2013–14 corn crop in Latin America began in September 2013.

BarleyWorld barley production is forecast to increase by 11 per cent in 2013–14 to 144 million tonnes, largely reflecting higher yields in most major producing countries. Significant production increases are expected in all major exporting countries except Argentina.

Barley production changes, major exporters, 2013–14

% Ukraine Russian

FederationEuropean

UnionCanada Australia Argentina

–5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

42

Coarse grains


Barley production in the European Union is estimated to increase by 9 per cent in 2013–14 to around 59 million tonnes, driven by a 77 per cent increase in production in Spain (to an estimated 10.6 million tonnes). Across the European Union, favourable seasonal conditions have resulted in yields being above the five-year average to 2012–13.

The major barley producers in the Black Sea region (the Russian Federation and Ukraine) are estimated to increase barley production in 2013–14, largely as a result of improved seasonal conditions compared with the previous season. The Russian Federation, the largest regional producer, is estimated to increase barley production by 14 per cent to around 16 million tonnes, reflecting a larger harvested area and a higher average yield. In Ukraine, it is estimated that a higher average yield will result in barley production rising by 11 per cent to 7.7 million tonnes.

In Canada, barley production is estimated to rise by 28 per cent in 2013–14 to 10.2 million tonnes, the highest level since 2008–09. Average barley yields in the major producing states of Alberta and Saskatchewan are well above average owing to favourable seasonal conditions. It is estimated that around 25 per cent of the barley crop in Alberta and 36 per cent of the barley crop in Saskatchewan reached malting grade.

In Argentina, barley production is forecast to decrease by 8 per cent in 2013–14 to 4.6 million tonnes, largely because of a decrease in the harvested area. However, the crop is in good condition with yields expected to be higher than last year.

Falling prices to increase consumptionWorld consumption of coarse grains is forecast to increase by 7 per cent in 2013–14 to 1.22 billion tonnes. This forecast rise mainly reflects an expected 9 per cent increase in the use of feed grains in livestock production (to 726 million tonnes).

World use of corn for livestock feed is forecast to rise by 10 per cent in 2013–14 to 567 million tonnes. In the United States, use of corn for feed is forecast to rise by 20 per cent to 132 million tonnes, while in Brazil it is forecast to rise 4 per cent to a record 49 million tonnes. In China, the use of corn for feed is forecast to rise by 6 per cent to a record 152 million tonnes, driven by an increase in livestock numbers.

World coarse grains consumption

Food, seed and industrialFeed

f ABARES forecast.

Mt

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1998–99

1995–96

1992–93

43

Coarse grains


World use of barley for livestock feed is forecast to rise by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to 94 million tonnes. In the European Union, the world’s largest feed barley market, feed use is forecast to rise by 3 per cent to around 37 million tonnes. The use of barley for feed in Canada is forecast to rise by 8 per cent to around 6 million tonnes.

World food, seed and industrial use of coarse grains is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to 491 million tonnes. This outlook is driven by an expected increase in the production of corn-based ethanol in the United States. Assuming no change to ethanol blending mandates, US ethanol producers are expected to respond to improved producer margins during 2013–14 by increasing output by 4 per cent to around 52 billion litres. This level of ethanol production is estimated to require some 125 million tonnes of corn.

Since the beginning of September 2013 ethanol production in the United States has risen markedly. For the week ending 8 November 2012, US ethanol production averaged 147 million litres a day, the highest rate since May 2012. This is 9 per cent higher than the 135 million litres a day produced in the first week of September 2013.

Ethanol production, daily average, United States

ML

30

60

90

120

150

180

22 Nov2013

16 Aug2013

24 May2013

1 Mar2013

7 Dec2012

14 Sep2012

22 Jun2012

30 Mar2012

6 Jan 2012

14 Oct2011

World trade to rise in 2013–14World coarse grains trade is forecast to rise by 14 per cent in 2013–14 to 135 million tonnes, reflecting an expected increase in supplies available for export, especially corn, and forecast falls in world prices.

World corn trade is forecast to rise by 15 per cent in 2013–14 to 105 million tonnes. The United States is expected to drive this forecast growth, with its exports expected to rise by around 88 per cent to 35 million tonnes. Record corn production in Ukraine is forecast to result in its corn exports rising by 37 per cent to 19 million tonnes. By contrast, corn exports from Brazil and Argentina are forecast to fall by 14 per cent and 11 per cent, respectively, to 19 million tonnes and 17 million tonnes. The forecast falls in both countries are expected to be driven by lower corn production and rising domestic consumption.

44

Coarse grains


World coarse grains exports

Other BarleyCorn

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

World barley trade is forecast to increase by 7 per cent in 2013–14 to around 20 million tonnes, largely the result of increased exports from the European Union, Canada, Australia, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. The European Union and Canada are forecast to increase barley exports by 11 per cent and 26 per cent, respectively, to 5.5 million tonnes and 1.8 million tonnes. By contrast, barley exports from Argentina are forecast to fall by 11 per cent to 3.2 million tonnes, reflecting a decline in domestic production.

Closing stocks to rise in 2013–14Closing stocks of coarse grains are forecast to rise by 22 per cent in 2013–14 to 202 million tonnes, with world production expected to exceed world consumption by around 37 million tonnes. The world stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to rise by 3 percentage points to 17 per cent, the highest since 2009–10.

World coarse grains stocks-to-use ratio

%

f ABARES forecast.

2468

101214161820

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

45

Coarse grains


World closing stocks of corn are forecast to increase by 23 per cent in 2013–14 to 166 million tonnes, driven by a forecast increase of 27 million tonnes in US corn stocks. Closing stocks in Ukraine are also forecast to rise, reflecting above average production. By contrast, closing stocks in Brazil are forecast to fall by 31 per cent to 11 million tonnes, reflecting expected lower production.

Closing stocks of barley are forecast to rise by 21 per cent in 2013–14 to around 25 million tonnes. Large barley crops in Canada and the European Union are forecast to result in these countries increasing closing stocks from relatively low levels.

Australia Production to rise in 2013–14Australian coarse grains production is forecast to rise by around 6 per cent in 2013–14 to 12.2 million tonnes, driven by a forecast increase in barley production. At this forecast level, coarse grains production in 2013–14 will be around 3 per cent above the five-year average to 2012–13.

Barley production is forecast to rise by 15 per cent in 2013–14 to 8.6 million tonnes. If realised, this would be the third largest barley crop on record. Production in Western Australia is forecast to increase by 25 per cent to around 2.8 million tonnes because seasonal conditions in spring were favourable. Spring seasonal conditions were also generally favourable in South Australia and Victoria where barley production is forecast to increase by 28 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively. By contrast, barley production is forecast to fall in New South Wales and Queensland, with yields expected to be lower than last year because of unfavourable seasonal conditions.

The area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to fall by 7 per cent in 2013–14 to around 552 000 hectares, reflecting dry planting conditions. The unfavourable seasonal conditions and delays in planting are expected to lower yields from last year and grain sorghum production is forecast to fall by around 20 per cent to 1.6 million tonnes.

Closing stocks, major corn exporters

Argentina Ukraine Brazil United States

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

46

Coarse grains


Australian coarse grains production

CornTriticaleOats

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

Grain sorghumBarley

3

6

9

12

15

18

Australian export values to fall in 2013–14Total Australian coarse grains exports are forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to 7 million tonnes. Barley exports are forecast to increase by 15 per cent to 5.9 million tonnes, reflecting increased production, particularly in the export oriented states of Western Australia and South Australia. By contrast, exports of grain sorghum are forecast to fall by 33 per cent to 863 000 tonnes.

The total value of coarse grains exports is forecast to fall by 2 per cent in 2013–14 to $2.1 billion. This mainly reflects a forecast fall in export earnings from grain sorghum, corn and oats. The value of grain sorghum exports is forecast to fall by 24 per cent to $277 million. By contrast, the value of barley exports is forecast to rise by 5 per cent to $1.7 billion in 2013–14.

Australian coarse grains exports

CornOatsGrain sorghumBarley

2013–14$m

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

47

Coarse grains


Coarse grains outlookC i tl kCoarsegrainsoutlook%

gf

% hunit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f change

WorldProduction Mt 1 151 1 131 1 254 10 9WorldProduction Mt 1 151 1 131 1 254 10.9barley Mt 134 130 144 10 8– barley Mt 134 130 144 10.8

886 863 964 11– corn Mt 886 863 964 11.7Consumption Mt 1 134 1 140 1 217 6.8Consumption Mt 1 134 1 140 1 217 6.8Trade Mt 147 118 135 14 4Trade Mt 147 118 135 14.4Closing stocks Mt 165 165 202 22 4Closing stocks Mt 165 165 202 22.4St k t ti % 15 14 17Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 15 14 17Corn price (fob Gulf, Jul–Jun) US$/t 281 312 220 –29.5

p (fob Gulf, Jul Jun) US$/t 281 312 220 29.5Barley price(fob Rouen Jul Jun) US$/t 270 296 243 17 9Barley price (fob Rouen, Jul–Jun) US$/t 270 296 243 –17.9AustraliaArea ’000 ha 5 323 5 255 5 391 2.6Area 000 ha 5 323 5 255 5 391 2.6– barley ’000 ha 3 718 3 622 3 807 5.1– barley 000 ha 3 718 3 622 3 807 5.1– grain sorghum ’000 ha 659 595 552 –7 2– grain sorghum ’000 ha 659 595 552 –7.2

dProduction kt 12 457 11 511 12 212 6.1– barley kt 8 221 7 466 8 620 15.5 barley kt 8 221 7 466 8 620 15.5– grain sorghum kt 2 239 2 005 1 608 –19.8– grain sorghum kt 2 239 2 005 1 608 19.8

E kt 7 911 6 746 7 033 4 3Exports a kt 7 911 6 746 7 033 4.3p– value A$m 2 245 2 094 2 053 –2.0 value $Feed barley price b A$/t 197 244 209 –14.3Feed barley price b A$/t 197 244 209 14.3Malting barley price c A$/t 201 255 227 11 0Malting barley price c A$/t 201 255 227 –11.0a July–June years. b Feed 1, delivered Geelong. c Gairdner Malt 1, delivered Geelong. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United Nations Comtrade database; United States Department of Agriculture

a July–June years. b Feed 1, delivered Geelong. c Gairdner Malt 1, delivered Geelong. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United Nations Comtrade database; United States Department of Agriculture






Lower prices with record oilseeds supplyThe world oilseeds indicator price (US soybeans, fob Gulf) is forecast to decline by 15 per cent in 2013–14 to US$510 a tonne. The prospect of a record crop in Latin America, particularly in Brazil, and rising world stocks are expected to place downward pressure on the world oilseeds indicator price in the second half of 2013–14.

The world canola indicator price (Europe rapeseed, fob Hamburg) is forecast to fall by 20 per cent in 2013–14 to US$500 a tonne, mainly reflecting increases in production in Canada and the European Union. Following the European harvest, the world canola indicator price fell by 27 per cent between mid June and late July 2013 to US$454 a tonne, before a partial recovery to around US$520 a tonne in late November 2013.

World canola supply and price

Opening stocks

Production

Mt 2013–14US$/t

Price (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

OilseedsBeth Deards

49

Oilseeds


Record soybean and canola production in 2013–14World oilseeds production is forecast to rise by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 498 million tonnes, driven by forecast record production of soybeans and canola.

CanolaWorld canola production is forecast to increase by 11 per cent in 2013–14 to more than 69 million tonnes, primarily reflecting estimated record production in Canada.

Canola production in Canada is estimated to rise by 34 per cent in 2013–14 to around 18 million tonnes. Favourable seasonal conditions during the growing season are assumed to result in record yields.

Rapeseed (canola) production in the European Union is estimated to increase by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to 20.5 million tonnes. This increase is the result of favourable seasonal conditions leading to above average yields in Germany and much of Central Europe.

In the Black Sea region, rapeseed production is estimated to increase by 76 per cent in Ukraine and 27 per cent in the Russian Federation, to 2.2 million tonnes and 1.3 million tonnes, respectively. Production at these levels would be the highest on record for the Russian Federation and the second highest on record for Ukraine. Over the decade to 2013–14, the area planted to rapeseed in the Russian Federation has increased significantly from around 200 000 hectares to more than 1.3 million hectares.

Canola production, Canada

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

4

8

12

16

20

50

Oilseeds


SoybeansWorld production of soybeans is forecast to rise by 7 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 284 million tonnes. This largely reflects forecast higher production in Latin America, assuming favourable seasonal conditions prevail, and higher production in the United States.

In Brazil, soybean production is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to 87 million tonnes, mainly reflecting a 5 per cent increase in the area planted to a record 29 million hectares. Relatively favourable returns to soybeans are forecast to result in an expansion of the area planted to soybeans, primarily at the expense of the area planted to corn.

Soybean production in Argentina is forecast to rise by 12 per cent in 2013–14 to 54.5 million tonnes, reflecting a forecast 4 per cent rise in the area planted and an assumed 8 per cent rise in the average yield. Recent dry seasonal conditions in Argentina reduced planting intentions of corn and sunflower seed. As a result, the area affected is likely to be planted to soybeans, which have a later planting window.

Soybean production in Paraguay is forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2013–14 at around 9.3 million tonnes. The area planted to soybeans and the average yield are forecast to be similar to the previous season. Seasonal conditions and soil moisture levels have so far been favourable for crop development.

Soybean production in the United States is estimated to rise by 8 per cent in 2013–14 to 88.7 million tonnes. Seasonal conditions have been more favourable than last year, leading to an estimated 4 per cent rise in the average yield. The planted area is also around 4 per cent higher than last year.

In India, soybean production is forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2013–14 at around 11.5 million tonnes. The area planted to soybeans in India is estimated to increase this season but yields have been affected by adverse seasonal conditions in the major producing regions.

Indian soybean industryIn 2012–13 India was the world’s fifth largest producer of soybeans. Soybean production in India has grown significantly since the mid 1980s, rising by an average of 9 per cent a year from around 1 million tonnes in 1985–86 to 11.5 million tonnes in 2012–13. This increase in production was largely the result of a 9.5 million hectare increase in the area planted to soybeans. Additionally, prices being received for soybeans were more favourable than production alternatives, such as cereals and pulses.

Soybean yields in India are well below the world average. This primarily reflects small-scale farming, erratic rainfall, low levels of irrigation and under investment in inputs such as improved seeds, fertilisers and pesticides.

The Indian Government supports soybean producers by providing a minimum support price that is set annually. International oilseeds prices are often higher than the minimum support price. Soybean producers in India also benefit from various input support programs.

continued...

51

Oilseeds


Indian soybean industry continued

Most soybeans in India are crushed to produce soybean meal and oil. Food and feed uses have increased over recent years. In 2012–13 soybean crush was 9.7 million tonnes, producing 7.8 million tonnes of soybean meal and 1.7 million tonnes of soybean oil. India applies a 30 per cent tariff to soybean imports.

Supply and use of soybeans, India

Mt

ProductionCrushFood and feed use

2012–13

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

1994–95

1991–92

1988–89

1985–86

2

4

6

8

10

12

India has high domestic demand for soybean oil and is the world’s third largest consumer of vegetable oils. Over the past two decades total consumption of vegetable oils in India grew by almost 250 per cent. This increase in consumption was largely driven by population growth and rising incomes. However, India’s per person consumption of vegetable oils is still well below the world average. Of all vegetable oils consumed in India in 2012–13, consumption of soybean oil was the second highest behind palm oil, accounting for around 16 per cent of vegetable oil consumption.

Soybean oil supply and use, India

Mt

ConsumptionProductionImports

2012–13

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

1994–95

1991–92

1988–89

1985–86

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

continued...

52

Oilseeds


Sunflower seedWorld sunflower seed production is forecast to rise by 13 per cent in 2013–14 to 41 million tonnes, largely driven by higher production in the Black Sea region and the European Union.

In the Black Sea region, production of sunflower seed in 2013–14 is estimated to rise by 25 per cent in Ukraine and 19 per cent in the Russian Federation, to 10.6 million tonnes and 9.5 million tonnes, respectively. Wet seasonal conditions during September 2013 delayed harvest and resulted in higher than usual moisture content in sunflower seeds. Yields nevertheless are estimated to increase from last year.

Indian soybean industry continued

Despite significant production of soybean oil in India, imports are needed to meet domestic demand. India is the world’s second largest importer of soybean oil, behind China. Imports of soybean oil have increased significantly since the mid 1990s, following the Indian Government’s decision in 1995 to allow imports by private traders and replace quantitative trade restrictions with tariffs. Before 1995, soybean oil was imported by the government-owned State Trading Corporation of India and import quantities were set by an inter-ministerial committee. India sources most of its soybean oil imports from Argentina and Brazil.

Until recently, most soybean meal produced in India was exported. In 2012 the largest export destinations for Indian soybean meal were Japan, Thailand and Pakistan. Domestic consumption of soybean meal has grown steadily since 2006–07, reaching 3.7 million tonnes in 2012–13 (48 per cent of domestic production). This rise in consumption was driven by growth in domestic feed demand, particularly in the poultry industry.

Soybean meal supply and use, India

Mt

ProductionExportsConsumption

2012–13

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

1994–95

1991–92

1988–89

1985–86

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

53

Oilseeds


Production of sunflower seeds in the European Union is estimated to increase by 23 per cent in 2013–14 to 8.3 million tonnes, reflecting an estimated 22 per cent increase in the average yield.

In Argentina, sunflower seed production is forecast to fall by 15 per cent in 2013–14 to 2.8 million tonnes, largely because of a 13 per cent fall in the area planted to sunflower seeds to around 1.5 million hectares. Dry seasonal conditions during the planting window in September and October 2013 prevented planting intentions being fully realised.

World production of soybeans, canola and sunflower seed

Sun�ower seedCanola Soybeans

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Crush to rise in 2013–14World oilseeds crush is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to 413 million tonnes, driven by high demand for protein meals and vegetable oils.

Soybean crush is forecast to rise by 5 per cent in 2013–14 to 240 million tonnes, largely reflecting a forecast increase in crush in China, Argentina and Brazil. In 2012–13 soybean crush in Brazil was constrained by record soybean exports, which resulted in the crushing industry operating below capacity. In 2013–14 soybean crush in Brazil is forecast to increase, largely driven by an expected increase in the biodiesel blending mandate from 5 per cent to 7 per cent at the beginning of 2014. Soybean oil is the primary feedstock for biodiesel in Brazil.

Canola crush is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to 64 million tonnes. Higher domestic production of canola in Canada and the European Union is expected to lead to increased crush in both countries. Canola crush in Canada is forecast to reach a record 8 million tonnes, which will result in an increase in the supply of canola oil and canola meal available for export.

Sunflower seed crush is forecast to rise by 9 per cent in 2013–14 to around 36 million tonnes. Sunflower seed crush is forecast to increase in all major producing countries, except Argentina.

54

Oilseeds


Canola production, exports and crush, Canada

Mt

ProductionExportsCrush

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

4

8

12

16

20

Record consumption of vegetable oils and meals in 2013–14World consumption of oilseeds is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 485 million tonnes.

World consumption of vegetable oils is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to 165 million tonnes, with both food consumption and industrial use of vegetable oils (primarily biodiesel) increasing. In the European Union, consumption of vegetable oils is forecast to increase by 10 per cent to 21.5 million tonnes. The European Union is likely to increase domestic biodiesel production in response to the introduction in late 2013 of import duties on biodiesel from Argentina and Indonesia.

World consumption of protein meals is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to 274 million tonnes. In China (the world’s largest consumer of protein meals) consumption is forecast to rise, but at a much lower rate than in previous years. Soybean meal will continue to account for the majority of Chinese protein meal consumption (around 75 per cent), followed by canola meal (15 per cent).

Chinese demand drives soybean and canola tradeWorld trade in oilseeds is forecast to rise by 10 per cent in 2013–14 to 126 million tonnes.

Soybean exports are forecast to increase by 10 per cent in 2013–14 to 108 million tonnes, reflecting forecast higher exports from Latin America and the United States. However, the increase in exports from Brazil is likely to be limited by strong demand from domestic crushers. Paraguay is also forecast to remain a significant exporter of soybeans, after the president of Paraguay vetoed the introduction of a 10 per cent export tax on soybeans. China is expected to remain the major importer of soybeans, with imports reaching a record 68 million tonnes. Indonesia is likely to increase imports of soybeans this year following removal of the import duty of 5 per cent in September 2013.

55

Oilseeds


Canola exports are forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2013–14 to around 13 million tonnes, largely due to forecast higher shipments from Canada and the Black Sea region. China is forecast to overtake the European Union as the world’s largest importer of canola in 2013–14, with its imports forecast to reach around 3.4 million tonnes. In addition to relaxing restrictions on canola trade with Australia and Canada earlier this year, China also recently permitted imports of canola from the Russian Federation.

Sunflower seed exports are forecast to rise by 20 per cent in 2013–14 to around 1.7 million tonnes.

Large soybean stocks expectedWorld closing stocks of oilseeds are forecast to rise by 18 per cent in 2013–14 to around 85 million tonnes, reflecting a significant rise in soybean stocks. World soybean stocks are forecast to increase by 17 per cent to 73 million tonnes. Stocks are expected to increase in all major producing countries. In Latin America and the United States, the forecast rise in stocks is largely because of expected higher domestic production. By contrast, China is expected to build stocks through increased imports.

Canola stocks are forecast to reach around 4.7 million tonnes in 2013–14. Despite the forecast rise, this is still the second lowest closing stock level since 2007–08. Sunflower seed stocks are forecast to increase by 48 per cent to 2.6 million tonnes.

Soybean stocks, major producers

OtherUnited StatesChina

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

BrazilArgentina

56

Oilseeds


AustraliaAustralian canola production is forecast to fall by 15 per cent in 2013–14 to 3.4 million tonnes, driven by large declines in production in New South Wales and Victoria. Production is expected to increase in the other major producing states of Western Australia and South Australia. If this forecast is realised, canola production in Australia would be the third highest on record.

Canola production is forecast to fall by 46 per cent in New South Wales to 715 000 tonnes and by 42 per cent in Victoria to around 540 000 tonnes. In New South Wales, the planted area is estimated to have fallen by 41 per cent and yields were adversely affected by unfavourable seasonal conditions during winter and spring. Canola crops were also affected by frost in October, particularly in the southern part of the state. In Victoria, the forecast fall in production reflects an estimated 36 per cent decline in planted area and the adverse effects on yields of significant frosts in early spring.

By contrast, canola production is forecast to rise by 29 per cent in Western Australia to 1.7 million tonnes and by 5 per cent in South Australia to 456 000 tonnes. In Western Australia, the forecast increase is driven by an expected 28 per cent rise in the average yield. This is largely the result of favourable conditions during spring. In South Australia, the forecast rise is driven by expected higher yields. The planted area in South Australia is estimated to have fallen by 18 per cent.

Canola exports are forecast to fall by 25 per cent in 2013–14 to 2.6 million tonnes, largely reflecting the forecast decline in domestic production. In 2013–14 the European Union and China are forecast to be the primary importers of Australian canola. The value of canola exports is forecast to decline by 31 per cent to $1.4 billion in 2013–14, reflecting expected lower shipments and weaker prices.

Australian canola production by state

2011–122012–132013–14

Mt

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

SouthAustralia

VictoriaNew SouthWales

WesternAustralia

57

Oilseeds


Oilseeds outlookOilseeds outlookOilseedsoutlook%

unit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f changeunit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f changeWorldWorldProduction Mt 445 470 498 6.0ProductionConsumption Mt 465 464 485 4 5Consumption Mt 465 464 485 4.5oilseed meal Mt 258 263 274 4 2– oilseed meal Mt 258 263 274 4.2

bl il– vegetable oil Mt 153 156 165 5.8gExports Mt 111 115 126 9 6Exports Mt 111 115 126 9.6Closing stocks Mt 65 72 85 18 1Closing stocks Mt 65 72 85 18.1St k t ti % 14 15 17Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 14 15 17Soybeans indicator price a US$/t 506 597 510 –14.6Soybeans indicator price a $/Canola indicator price b US$/t 621 628 500 –20.4Canola indicator price b US$/t 621 628 500 –20.4

A t liAustraliaTotal production kt 5 289 5 602 4 918 –12.2Total production kt 5 289 5 602 4 918 12.2– winter kt 3 440 4 023 3 425 –14.9– winter kt 3 440 4 023 3 425 14.9– summer kt 1 849 1 579 1 493 –5 4– summer kt 1 849 1 579 1 493 –5.4

CanolaProduction kt 3 427 4 010 3 410 –15.0Production kt 3 427 4 010 3 410 15.0Exports c kt 2 323 3 488 2 621 –24 9Exports c kt 2 323 3 488 2 621 –24.9value A$m 1 344 2 094 1 437 31 4– value A$m 1 344 2 094 1 437 –31.4

Price c (delivered Melbourne) A$/t 521 560 509 –9.1 (delivered Melbourne) A$/t 521 560 509 9.1

a Soybeans, US, fob Gulf, July–June. b Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg, July–June. c July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World, Hamburg; United States Department of Agriculture







Lower sugar prices in 2013–14The world indicator price for raw sugar (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) is forecast to fall by around 6 per cent in 2013–14 (October to September) to average US17 cents a pound. The forecast price decline reflects world sugar production being forecast to exceed consumption for the fourth consecutive year. This is expected to lift world sugar stocks to a record high. If realised, this price will be the lowest in five years but similar to the average price achieved in the 10 years to 2012–13 (in real terms).

World sugar indicators

Production

Consumption

Mt2013–14USc/lb

Indicator price(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

40

80

120

160

200

6

12

18

24

30

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

World sugar production to remain high in 2013–14World sugar production is forecast to be 181.6 million tonnes in 2013–14, down marginally from the record production of 183.6 million tonnes in 2012–13. Production is forecast to be lower in Europe, the United States, India and Mexico but higher in Brazil, Thailand and China.

SugarBenjamin K Agbenyegah

59

Sugar


Change in world sugar production

2013–14f

2012–13

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

world

other

United States

Thailand

Mexico

India

European Union

Eastern Europe

China

Brazil

Australia

–2

2

0

4

6

8

10

Sugar production in Brazil is forecast to increase by 0.43 million tonnes in 2013–14 (October to September) to a record 41.4 million tonnes. The forecast increase largely reflects an increase in the area planted to sugar cane and a renewal of old sugar cane plantings in response to favourable world prices. Seasonal conditions have also been more favourable in 2013–14 after adverse seasonal conditions affected crops in 2012–13.

Sugar cane production in Brazil is forecast to increase by 10 per cent in 2013–14 to 645 million tonnes. Around 45 per cent of the cane is likely to be used for sugar production, 5 percentage points lower than in 2012–13. This expected decline partly reflects an increase in the mandatory blending ratio of anhydrous ethanol with gasoline from 20 per cent to 25 per cent, effective from 1 May 2013.

Sugar cane production and allocation, Brazil

Cane production

Sugar production

Mt %

Sugar share (right axis)

a April–March years. f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02a

60

Sugar


In China, sugar production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2013–14 to 14.6 million tonnes, driven by an expected 6 per cent increase in the average yield. However, the area planted to sugar cane is expected to decline by around 3 per cent in response to lower world sugar prices.

Sugar production in Thailand is forecast to increase by 11 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 11.1 million tonnes. The forecast increase largely reflects an expected 11 per cent rise in the average sugar yield from the drought-affected crop of 2012–13.

Sugar production in India is forecast to fall by 4.0 per cent in 2013–14 to 26.1 million tonnes, largely reflecting a 3.5 per cent fall in the area planted to sugar cane and lower sugar yields.

Sugar production in the United States is forecast to be largely unchanged at 8.1 million tonnes in 2013–14. The area planted to cane and beet is estimated to be lower. The decline in the area planted to sugar beet was mainly the result of unusually wet and cold conditions at the time of planting.

Mexican sugar production is forecast to decline by around 11 per cent in 2013–14 to 6.6 million tonnes. This reflects an expected 10 per cent decline in yields following dry seasonal conditions at the time of planting and lower cane planting.

Sugar production in the European Union is forecast to decline by 7 per cent in 2013–14 to 16.3 million tonnes, which if realised will be the lowest in five years. The forecast decline in production is the result of a 3 per cent reduction in sugar beet plantings and expected lower yields.

Sugar production in Eastern Europe is forecast to fall by 15 per cent in 2013–14 to 7.6 million tonnes, which largely reflects a reduction in the area planted to sugar beet. In the Russian Federation sugar production is forecast to decline by 11 per cent to 4.4 million tonnes and in Ukraine to decline by around 32 per cent to 1.7 million tonnes. In both countries, the declines are largely the result of a fall in the area planted to sugar beet.

Record world sugar consumption in 2013–14World sugar consumption is forecast to increase by 2.2 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 176.8 million tonnes, driven by expected income growth, particularly in China, Indonesia, India and Brazil.

With world sugar production forecast to exceed world consumption for the fourth consecutive year, world closing stocks of sugar are forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 80 million tonnes. The world stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to rise by 2 percentage points to around 45 per cent, well above the average of 40 per cent for the 10 years to 2012–13.

61

Sugar


World sugar surplus/deficit and stocks-to-use ratio

Mt %

Stocks-to-use ratio(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

Surplus/de�cit

0

–10

–5

5

10

15

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

World sugar trade to increase in 2013–14World sugar exports are forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2013–14 to 58.1 million tonnes, reflecting strong import demand by the European Union, the United States and the Russian Federation and an increase in the supply of sugar available for export from Brazil, Thailand and India.

In 2013–14 sugar imports into the European Union are forecast to increase by 9 per cent to 4.7 million tonnes and into the Russian Federation more than double to 1.5 million tonnes. The increase in imports in both regions is expected to be driven by forecast falls in local production and strong domestic demand.

Sugar imports into the United States are forecast to rise by 16 per cent in 2013–14 to 3.1 million tonnes. In the 2012–13 marketing year, some exporters to the United States had insufficient supplies available to fill the import quotas at a concessional tariff allocated to them. These quota allocations are likely to be filled this year. Sugar imported at the concessional tariff is attractive to US importers because it is cheaper than sugar produced in the United States.

US sugar imports and tariff quota

Other Free trade agreement sugar tari� rate quotaMexico–North AmericaFree Trade Agreement

World Trade OrganizationallocationWorld Trade Organizationminimum import commitment

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

62

Sugar


Sugar exports from Brazil are forecast to increase by around 3 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 27.7 million tonnes. This forecast increase reflects strong world demand and record production in Brazil.

In Thailand, sugar exports are forecast to increase by around 39 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 8.5 million tonnes, reflecting an increase in the supply of sugar available for export.

Sugar exports from India are forecast to more than double in 2013–14 to 2.2 million tonnes. The expected increase in exports is driven by forecast production exceeding consumption for the fourth consecutive year.

Australian sugar production slightly lower in 2013–14Australian sugar production is forecast to fall by around 2 per cent in 2013–14 to 4.2 million tonnes, driven by an estimated 5 per cent decline in average yield. However, the area of sugar cane harvested is expected to rise by around 3 per cent and partially offset the effect on production of a lower average yield. Yields are expected to fall because of flooding in early 2013 that damaged new plantings and the spread of canopy syndrome disease in the Bundaberg and Isis regions.

Queensland Sugar Limited, the marketer of more than 90 per cent of Australia’s raw sugar exports, estimated its gross harvest pool return in 2013–14 to be $393 a tonne International Polarity Scale, 9 per cent lower than in 2012–13. However, Queensland Sugar Limited notes that the final harvest pool return depends on future movements in world sugar prices and the Australian exchange rate. If realised, the forecast harvest pool return for 2013–14 would be 10 per cent higher (in real terms) than the 10-year average to 2011–12 for the seasonal pool of $306 a tonne International Polarity Scale. Queensland Sugar Limited’s seasonal pool arrangement was replaced in 2012–13 by a harvest pool arrangement.

The average mill-gate return to Australian cane growers in 2013–14 is forecast to be $38 a tonne, down from $44 a tonne in 2012–13. This largely reflects forecast lower world sugar prices in 2013–14. However, an assumed lower Australian dollar is expected to partially offset the effect of lower world prices on grower returns. Although the forecast mill-gate return would be the lowest since 2008–09, it would still be around 4 per cent higher than the average (in real terms) in the decade to 2009–10.

Australian sugar exports are forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2013–14 at 3.0 million tonnes. However, the value of Australian sugar exports is forecast to decline by around 9 per cent to around $1.3 million because of forecast lower world prices.

63

Sugar


Australian sugar production, exports and returns to cane growers

Mt2012–13$/t

Production

Return to cane growers(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

Exports

10

20

30

40

50

60

1

2

3

4

5

6

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

Sugar outlookSugar outlookSugaroutlook%

unit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f changeunit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f change

W ldWorld a Production Mt 174.3 183.6 181.6 –1.1Production– Brazil Mt 36.9 41.0 41.4 1.0 Brazil Mt 36.9 41.0 41.4 1.0Consumption Mt 168 0 173 0 176 8 2 2Consumption Mt 168.0 173.0 176.8 2.2Exports Mt 54 3 56 4 58 1 3 0Exports Mt 54.3 56.4 58.1 3.0Cl i t k Mt 63 8 75 2 80 0 6 4Closing stocks Mt 63.8 75.2 80.0 6.4Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 38 43 45Price USc/lb 22.7 18.0 17.0 –5.6Price USc/lb 22.7 18.0 17.0 5.6

A t li bA ’000 h 368 371 382 3 0Australia bArea ’000 ha 368 371 382 3.0Production c kt 3 683 4 300 4 200 –2.3Production c kt 3 683 4 300 4 200 2.3Exports kt 2 572 2 996 2 958 –1.3Exports kt 2 572 2 996 2 958 –1.3– value A$m 1 556 1 403 1 276 –9 1– value A$m 1 556 1 403 1 276 –9.1a October–September years. b July–June years. c Raw tonnes actual. f ABARES forecast.s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Sugar Organization

a October–September years. b July–June years. c Raw tonnes actual. f ABARES forecast.s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Sugar Organization






World cotton prices lower in 2013–14The world indicator price for cotton (Cotlook ‘A’ index) is forecast to average US86 cents a pound in 2013–14 (August to July), compared with around US88 cents a pound in 2012–13. The forecast price decline reflects a forecast increase in the world stocks-to-use ratio to record levels as world cotton stocks increase further.

This price forecast assumes China will continue its stock building policies in 2013–14. China accounted for 57 per cent of total world cotton stocks in 2012–13. This followed two years of strong purchases from domestic and international markets, which added around 11 million tonnes to its national reserve. In 2013–14 China’s share of world cotton stocks is forecast to reach 60 per cent, limiting availability of cotton on world markets if stocks are not released to domestic and international markets. However, should the Chinese Government stop stock building or release its cotton stocks onto the world market, world cotton prices could be significantly lower than currently forecast.

Daily cotton prices in China

USc/lb

3 Dec2013

10 Jul2013

4 Feb2013

3 Sep2012

27 Mar2012

26 Oct2011

China Cotton Index (328)

Cotlook ‘A’ Index

30

60

90

120

150

180

CottonBenjamin K Agbenyegah

65

Cotton


World cotton indicators (annual)

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

Production

Consumption

Mt2013–14USc/lb

Indicator price(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

5

10

15

20

25

30

30

60

90

120

150

180

World cotton production lower in 2013–14World cotton production is forecast to decline by around 3 per cent in 2013–14 to 25.7 million tonnes. This reflects a fall in world cotton plantings in response to favourable prices for alternative crops and dry seasonal conditions in the United States. Lower cotton production is forecast in the United States, China, Turkey and Uzbekistan in 2013–14, more than offsetting forecast production increases in India, Brazil and Pakistan.

Changes in world cotton production, by country

2013–14f

2012–13

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

–0.8

–0.6

–0.4

–0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

world

other

Turkey

Uzbekistan

Australia

Brazil

Pakistan

United States

India

China

66

Cotton


In the United States, cotton production is forecast to decline by 25 per cent in 2013–14 to 2.8 million tonnes. The area planted to cotton declined by an estimated 17 per cent to 4.13 million hectares—the lowest in four years. This is because of relatively high prices for alternative crops, including maize and soybeans, and dry seasonal conditions, particularly in the dryland cotton growing areas of Texas. The dry seasonal conditions have also increased the abandonment rate (the area planted but not harvested because of poor yields), which is expected to be 24 per cent in 2013–14, well above the average of 12.5 per cent for the 10 years to 2011–12. The average lint yield in 2013–14 is assumed to be around 912 kilograms a hectare.

Cotton area and lint yield in the United States

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

Area planted

Area harvested

Mha kg/ha

Lint yield (right axis)

f ABARES forecast. Note: Lint yield is based on planted area.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Cotton production in China is forecast to decline to 7.2 million tonnes in 2013–14, around 6 per cent lower than in 2012–13. This reflects an estimated 5.5 per cent reduction in planted area and an assumed small decline in average yield. The estimated fall in planted area largely reflects declining returns to growers. Higher production costs, particularly for labour, are negatively affecting profitability, despite the Chinese Government maintaining the minimum support price for cotton at RMB20 400 a tonne (around US150c a pound) in 2013–14.

In India, cotton production is forecast to increase by 10 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 6.3 million tonnes. The forecast increase reflects an estimated 2 per cent rise in planted area and an assumed 8 per cent rise in average yield. The yield increase follows a favourable monsoon, which delivered rainfall well above the long-term average.

Cotton production in Pakistan is forecast to be 2.1 million tonnes in 2013–14, 4 per cent larger than in 2012–13. The forecast increase reflects an assumed 4 per cent rise in average yield based on a return to more normal seasonal conditions in 2013–14, following the effects of drought and leaf curl virus on cotton yields last season.

In Brazil, cotton production is forecast to increase by around 27 per cent in 2013–14 to 1.6 million tonnes. The forecast increase reflects an estimated 22 per cent increase in cotton plantings in response to relatively high domestic cotton prices and an assumed 5 per cent rise in average yield. Higher yields reflect greater take up of genetically modified cotton varieties by growers in 2013–14. Genetically modified cotton varieties have been boosting lint yield potentials since their official adoption in 1996 (see box).

67

Cotton


Adoption of genetically modified cottonGenetically modified (GM) cotton varieties were globally commercialised in 1996. Since then, the area of GM cotton varieties planted worldwide has increased steadily to 24.3 million hectares in 2012, constituting 71 per cent of total world cotton planting area.

GM cotton is grown in India, China, the United States and Pakistan. Smaller producers, including Australia, South Africa, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Colombia, Mexico, Costa Rica, Myanmar and Egypt, also grow GM cotton. Together, these 16 countries accounted for more than 85 per cent of world cotton production and 73 per cent of international trade in raw cotton in the five years to 2012–13.

World area harvested of genetically modified cotton varieties

Herbicide tolerantInsect resistant andherbicide tolerantInsect resistant

Mha

Non-genetically modied

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201220092006200320001997

Pattern of adoption of genetically modified cotton varieties

1996 Insect resistant GM cotton was commercialised in the United States and Australia, with a single Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) gene conferring resistance to key cotton insect (lepidopteran) pests. These varieties were adopted by Mexico (1997), Argentina (1999), China (1999), India (2002), Colombia (2004) and Brazil (2006). The introduction of Bt varieties has greatly reduced targeted pest numbers. This has also benefited non-Bt cotton adopters and producers of other crops affected by polyphagous pests that feed on many types of food. In Australia, this trait helped reduce insecticide use by 45 per cent. In India, it has led to yield improvements of around 10 per cent.

1997 GM cotton varieties tolerant to selected herbicides were commercialised in the United States, enabling over-the-top herbicide application in the vegetative stage of plant growth. The varieties were adopted by Australia (2000), Argentina (2001) and Colombia (2007).

2000 GM cotton varieties with both insect resistance (single Bt gene) and herbicide tolerance traits (stacked genes) were introduced in the United States and later adopted by Australia (2003) and Colombia (2008).

continued...

68

Cotton


Adoption of genetically modified cotton continued

2001 GM cotton varieties with two Bt genes for insect resistance and a herbicide resistant gene were commercialised in the United States and Australia. Colombia adopted the varieties in 2009. Widespread adoption of GM cotton varieties with two Bt genes has further reduced pesticide application to cotton.

In Australia, adoption of double Bt gene varieties has enabled an 80 per cent reduction in the number of insecticide applications each season, compared with conventional varieties. Following the introduction of double Bt cotton, the single Bt varieties were discontinued in Australia and are being phased out in the United States.

2006 GM cotton varieties containing two copies of the original gene conferring herbicide tolerance expressed in both the vegetative and reproductive plant tissue were commercialised in the United States and Australia. This enables over-the-top applications of selected herbicides well into the flowering stage of plant growth.

GM cotton varieties with the two different Bt genes for insect resistance and double copies of a herbicide tolerant gene were also commercialised in the United States and Australia.

The United States, Australia and Colombia are leading adopters of GM cotton varieties with both stacked traits of insect resistance and enhanced herbicide tolerance. By contrast, China and India have larger plantings of insect resistant GM varieties.

Area planted to genetically modified cotton varieties, by six top world producer countries, 2011

Non-genetically modi�edInsect resistant and herbicide tolerantHerbicide tolerant

Mha

Insect resistant

2

4

6

8

10

12

AustraliaBrazilPakistanIndiaChinaUnited States

The adoption of GM cotton varieties has helped reduce pesticide use and improve world lint cotton yields. However, the rate of yield growth is expected to slow as uptake of the current generation of GM cotton crops approaches full potential.

continued...

69

Cotton


World cotton consumption higher in 2013–14World cotton consumption is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2013–14 to 23.9 million tonnes, reflecting assumed economic growth in apparel consuming countries, particularly India, Pakistan and Turkey. Chinese cotton consumption is forecast to remain largely unchanged at 7.8 million tonnes in 2013–14 as a result of relatively high domestic prices. Relatively low prices for alternative fibres, particularly polyester, are expected to provide strong competition for cotton, constraining consumption growth.

Share of world cotton consumption, by country

OtherPakistanIndia

%

China

20

40

60

80

100

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

Adoption of genetically modified cotton continued

World cotton lint yield and adoption of genetically modified varieties

Adoption of genetically modi�ed cotton varieties

% t/ha

Lint yield (right axis)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

2012–13

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

1994–95

1991–92

1988–89

1985–86

1982–83

Several new GM traits for cotton are undergoing research and development, particularly in the United States and Australia. These traits include triple Bt gene insect resistance, dicamba and glufosinate (herbicide) tolerance, lygus (insect) resistance and reduced water requirement for growth or greater drought tolerance.

70

Cotton


World weekly apparel fibre prices

USc/lb

Cotlook ‘A’ indicator

Polyester staple, China(cotton equivalent)

Polyester staple, Taiwan(cotton equivalent)

28 Nov2013

30 May2013

29 Nov2012

31 May2012

24 Nov2011

4 Aug2011

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Record world cotton stocks in 2013–14World closing stocks of cotton are forecast to increase to a record 20.8 million tonnes in 2013–14, 8 per cent more than in 2012–13. If realised, forecast world cotton stocks will be equivalent to world mill use for more than 10 months. The world cotton stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to increase to a record 87 per cent.

In 2013–14 China is forecast to account for 97 per cent of the forecast growth in world cotton stocks, under the assumption of a continuation of its cotton reserve policy. China is forecast to account for 60 per cent of world cotton stocks by the end of 2013–14, lifting its stocks-to-use ratio for cotton to a record 161 per cent. However, the ratio for the world (excluding China) is forecast to decline to 51 per cent, the lowest level since 2010–11.

Stocks-to-use ratio for cotton

%

ChinaWorldWorld excluding China

f ABARES forecast.

30

60

90

120

150

180

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

71

Cotton


World cotton trade lower in 2012–13World cotton exports are forecast to be 8.6 million tonnes in 2013–14, 15 per cent lower than in 2012–13. This forecast decline reflects expected lower cotton production in major exporting countries, particularly the United States and Australia, and forecast lower import demand by China.

Cotton imports by China are forecast to decline by 46 per cent in 2013–14 to 2.4 million tonnes as rebuilding of China’s strategic reserve slows. The forecast cotton imports, if realised, will be less than half the record imports of 2011–12 and the lowest since 2009–10.

Cotton exports by the United States—the world’s largest exporter—are forecast to decrease by 20 per cent in 2013–14 to 2.3 million tonnes, reflecting forecast lower domestic production.

In India, cotton exports are forecast to fall by 8 per cent in 2013–14 to 1.5 million tonnes. This forecast decline reflects lower import demand from China.

Australian cotton production lower in 2013–14Australian cotton production is forecast to be 975 000 tonnes in 2013–14, compared with 1 million tonnes in 2012–13. The forecast reflects a combination of relatively favourable cotton prices in Australia and plentiful supplies of irrigation water in almost all Australian cotton producing regions. The average storage level of public irrigation dams serving Australian cotton growing regions was 63 per cent of capacity on 19 November 2013, compared with an average of 42 per cent at the same time for the 10 years to 2011.

Storage levels of main irrigation dams, at 19 November 2013

%

20

New South Wales Queensland

40

60

80

100

120

Bear

dmor

e(S

t Geo

rge)

othe

r

othe

r

Fairb

airn

(Em

eral

d)

Lesl

ie(D

arlin

g D

owns

)

Burr

endo

ng(M

acqu

arie

)

Pind

ari

(Mac

inty

re)

Keep

it(N

amoi

)

Gle

nlyo

n(M

acin

tyre

)

Cope

ton

(Gw

ydir)

20122013

Average of the 10 yearsto 2011

72

Cotton


Recovery in Australian cotton pricesThe return to Australian cotton growers at the gin-gate is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to $493 a bale (227 kilograms) of lint (including the value of cottonseed and net of ginning costs), with the assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar more than offsetting the forecast fall in world prices. The forecast return to cotton growers is lower than the average of the 10 years to 2011–12 of $545 a bale (2013–14 dollars), but still favourable when compared with returns for production alternatives.

Australian cotton exports lower in 2013–14Australian cotton exports are forecast to be 987 000 tonnes in 2013–14, 24 per cent lower than the record 1.3 million tonnes of 2012–13. This forecast decline reflects lower cotton production in 2012–13 and 2013–14. Almost all Australian cotton production is exported and the typical March to June harvest period means Australian cotton production in one season is exported across two financial years. If realised, this forecast export volume would maintain Australia’s position as the world’s third largest exporter of cotton, behind the United States and India.

Australian cotton production, exports and gin-gate returns

Production

Exports

kt2013–14$/bale

Gin-gate return a (right axis)

a Value of lint and cottonseed, less ginning costs. f ABARES forecast.

200

400

600

800

1000

300

600

900

1200

1500

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

1997–98

1995–96

73

Cotton


Cotton outlook%

unit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f changeunit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f change

WorldP d ti Mt 27 2 26 4 25 7 2 7World aProduction Mt 27.2 26.4 25.7 –2.7Consumption Mt 22.5 23.4 23.9 2.1Consumption Exports Mt 10.0 10.1 8.6 –14.9Exports Mt 10.0 10.1 8.6 14.9Closing stocks Mt 15 9 19 2 20 8 8 3Closing stocks Mt 15.9 19.2 20.8 8.3Stocks to use ratio % 70 5 82 1 87 2Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 70.5 82.1 87.2C tl k ‘A’ i d US /lb 100 1 87 9 86 0 2 2Cotlook ‘A’ index USc/lb 100.1 87.9 86.0 –2.2

Australia bArea harvested ’000 ha 600 442 413 –6 6Australia bArea harvested ’000 ha 600 442 413 –6.6Lint production kt 1 198 1 002 975 2 7Lint production kt 1 198 1 002 975 –2.7E t k 994 1 306 987 24 4Exports kt 994 1 306 987 –24.4p– value A$m 2 736 2 695 2 181 –19.1 value $ 36 695 8 9a August–July years. b July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculturea August–July years. b July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculturea August–July years. b July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculturea August–July years. b July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculture

‘‘

74

Cotton


AgricultureLivestock


Beef and vealClay Mifsud

In the first four months of 2013–14, the weighted average saleyard price of beef cattle was 293 cents a kilogram (dressed weight). This was after a fall of 10 per cent to 297 cents a kilogram in 2012–13, the lowest in real terms since 1998–99. Drier than average seasonal conditions during winter and spring, following the failure of the northern wet season, contributed to an increased supply of cattle for slaughter and further downward pressure on saleyard prices.

The effect of adverse seasonal conditions on cattle prices and slaughter numbers has been most extensive in Queensland, which comprises around 50 per cent of the national beef cattle herd. As of 31 October 2013, around 60 per cent of Queensland was drought declared. Low restocker demand in Queensland and interstate has contributed to the low prices.

For 2013–14 as a whole, the Australian weighted average saleyard price of beef cattle is forecast to average 3 per cent higher at 305 cents a kilogram (dressed weight). Higher beef export demand, particularly from emerging markets, and an assumed lower Australian exchange rate are expected to result in improved prices for heavy steers. Increased demand from Indonesia for live cattle is likely to be a positive influence on trade steer prices in northern Australia. However, partially offsetting forecast higher steer prices are lower cow prices. Until there is a seasonal break, producers who are unable to support existing herd sizes are likely to continue to offload female breeding stock.

The main risk factor in the outlook for saleyard prices for the remainder of 2013–14 is uncertainty surrounding short-term seasonal conditions. If dry conditions persist in many major cattle producing regions, saleyard prices are likely to be lower than currently forecast.

77

Beef and veal


Australian cattle slaughter and saleyard price

Slaughter

millionhead

2013–14Ac/kg

Price (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

2

4

6

8

10

100

200

300

400

500

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1998–99

1995–96

Higher slaughter and productionDuring the first four months of 2013–14, cattle and calf slaughter increased by 16 per cent year-on-year to 3.3 million head. It comprised a 7 per cent increase in male cattle slaughter to 1.6 million head, a 28 per cent increase in female cattle slaughter to 1.4 million head and a 14 per cent increase in calf slaughter to 324 000 head.

Reflecting the higher cattle slaughter, beef and veal production over the first four months of 2013–14 increased by 12 per cent year-on-year to 845 000 tonnes (carcass weight). The higher proportion of lighter female cattle slaughtered contributed to average slaughter weights declining by 4 per cent year-on-year to 255 kilograms.

For 2013–14 as a whole, cattle and calf slaughter is forecast to rise by 6 per cent to 8.9 million head. Beef and veal production is forecast to rise by 3 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 2.3 million tonnes.

Cattle numbers to declineThe beef cattle herd is forecast to be 25 million head as at 30 June 2014, 2 per cent lower than the previous year. Lower cattle numbers are a reflection of the significant increase in slaughter, and lower calving going into 2014. The forecast cattle herd at the end of 2013–14 takes into account the preliminary estimate of herd numbers at the end of 2012–13 released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on 15 November 2013. The ABS estimates that beef cattle numbers fell by 1 per cent in 2012–13 to 25.5 million head as at 30 June 2013.

78

Beef and veal


Record Australian beef exportsAustralian beef and veal exports in 2013–14 are forecast to rise by 7 per cent to a record 1.1 million tonnes (shipped weight), reflecting growing demand from emerging markets. With domestic beef demand largely unchanged, the proportion of Australian beef and veal production that is exported is forecast to increase in 2013–14 to around 70 per cent. Forecast higher export volumes to the United States, China and the Middle East are expected to more than offset forecast lower exports to Australia’s largest market, Japan.

Australian beef and veal exports (shipped weight)

kt

2013–14f

2012–13

Other

Middle East

South-East Asia

Republic of Korea

China

United States

Japan

50 100 150 200 250 300

f ABARES forecast.

The assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar is expected to provide support for beef export earnings in 2013–14. The value of Australian beef and veal exports in 2013–14 is forecast to rise by 12 per cent to $5.4 billion. Beef export unit prices, denominated in Australian dollars, have averaged higher year-on-year so far in 2013–14.

Australian beef losing market share in JapanAustralian beef and veal exports to Japan are forecast to fall by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to 280 000 tonnes (shipped weight), the lowest since 2002–03, as competition from US beef exports increases. Since Japan’s further relaxation of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) related restrictions on US beef in February 2013, exports of US beef to Japan have increased by more than 50 per cent year-on-year. With total Japanese import demand for beef largely unchanged, increased US exports to Japan have resulted in weaker Japanese demand for Australian beef exports.

The decline in Australian beef and veal exports to Japan is consistent with the partial re-entry of US beef to the Japanese beef import market in 2006, resulting in lower demand from Japan for most types of Australian beef. From 2005–06 to 2012–13 exports of chilled grain-fed and grass-fed beef fell by 40 per cent and 42 per cent to 82 000 tonnes and 42 000 tonnes, respectively. Similarly, exports of frozen grain-fed beef fell by 24 per cent to 39 000 tonnes. By contrast, exports of frozen grass-fed beef rose by 6 per cent to 135 000 tonnes, partially offsetting the fall in other types of exports. In the first five months of 2013–14, total Australian beef and veal exports to Japan fell 7 per cent year-on-year to 125 000 tonnes.

79

Beef and veal


Beef supply, Japan

Imports – otherImports – United StatesImports – Australia

kt

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

Domestic production

200

400

600

800

1000

f ABARES forecast.

Exports to the United States growingAustralian beef and veal exports to the United States are forecast to increase by 11 per cent in 2013–14 to 230 000 tonnes (shipped weight), reflecting a decline in the domestic supply of manufacturing beef in the United States and an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar against the US dollar.

In 2013–14 US supply of cow beef for the grinding market is expected to decline. Compared with 2012–13, improved seasonal conditions, significantly lower corn prices and higher world dairy prices resulted in increased returns from US dairy production. As a result, US producers are expected to increase their retention of cows and heifers, thereby reducing the supply of cows to slaughter.

Increased US demand for imported manufacturing beef is placing upward pressure on beef import prices, while the assumed weaker Australian exchange rate would result in returns to Australian exporters increasing at a faster rate in Australian currency terms. In the first five months of 2013–14, the 90 chemical lean manufacturing beef import price averaged 423 cents a kilogram, 7 per cent higher year-on-year.

Despite a forecast increase in 2013–14, Australian beef and veal exports to the United States are unlikely to approach volumes recorded a decade ago, for two reasons. First, since then the price of manufacturing beef, largely used in the foodservice sector, has increased substantially relative to substitutes such as chicken. In 2003–04 the price of a 78 chemical lean meat block used in the production of hamburger patties was around 60 per cent of the price of an equivalent volume of chicken breast. In 2013–14 the same 78 chemical lean meat block is around 30 per cent more expensive than the equivalent chicken breast. Second, new export markets for Australian manufacturing beef have emerged where prices sometimes exceed those in the US market.

80

Beef and veal


Beef and veal exports to the United States

ChilledFrozen

kt2013–14A$m

Value (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

1000

1500

2000

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

Demand for imported beef in China to riseAustralian beef and veal exports to China are forecast to increase by 74 per cent in 2013–14 to 160 000 tonnes (shipped weight), reflecting growth in demand for beef in China exceeding growth in local production. While China is the world’s third largest beef producer (after the United States and Brazil), production has remained largely unchanged since 2010, and an increase in demand is resulting in higher imports. Over the 10 years to 2011–12, imports as a proportion of Chinese beef consumption averaged less than 1 per cent. In 2012–13 this increased to around 2 per cent of consumption and is expected to increase further to 8 per cent in 2013–14.

Australia is the largest supplier of imported beef to China, accounting for 50 per cent of imports over the past year. Uruguay accounts for 25 per cent of beef imports and New Zealand accounts for 15 per cent. Beef imports from the United States and Brazil, two of the largest exporters, remain banned in China on BSE-related grounds.

Growth in demand for beef in China is reflected in the change in domestic retail meat prices over the five years to 2013–14. According to the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture, in November 2008 the average beef price in China was RMB33 per kilogram, compared with RMB19 per kilogram for pork. In November 2013 beef prices averaged RMB61 per kilogram, compared with RMB26 per kilogram for pork and RMB19 per kilogram for chicken.

In August 2013 the Chinese Government advised that export meat plants must be specifically listed to export chilled meat to China. Most Australian beef exports to China are frozen beef but chilled beef exports have increased. In the 12 months to August 2013, chilled beef made up around 8 per cent of Australian beef exports to China. Since September 2013, chilled beef exports to China have been negligible. The Australian Government Department of Agriculture is working with exporters to provide the information required.

81

Beef and veal


Beef and veal imports, China

OtherUruguayNew Zealand

kt

Australia

20

40

60

80

100

Sep2013

Mar2013

Sep2012

Mar2012

Sep2011

Mar2011

Sep2010

Mar2010

Australian beef remains price competitive in Republic of KoreaAustralian beef and veal exports to the Republic of Korea are forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2013–14 to 145 000 tonnes (shipped weight).

US beef exports to the Republic of Korea are expected to be lower in 2013–14 because of higher US beef prices. Korean demand for imported beef is largely for frozen cuts, which Australia can supply at lower prices than the United States. Over the first four months of 2013–14 the landed price of Australian frozen and chilled beef in the Republic of Korea averaged 20 per cent and 9 per cent lower than US beef, respectively.

Beef and veal imports, Republic of Korea

OtherNew ZealandUnited States

kt

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

Australia

50

100

150

200

250

300

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

82

Beef and veal


The effect of the Korea–United States Free Trade Agreement on the relative shares of Korean beef imports has so far been minimal. The decline in tariffs imposed on imports of US beef has been largely offset by higher US beef prices. Since 1 January 2011 tariffs imposed on imports of US beef have fallen by 13.5 per cent, to 34.6 per cent. However, the average landed price of US beef in the Republic of Korea has risen by 11 per cent to $5.76 a kilogram. In the 12 months to October 2013, Australia’s share of Korean beef imports was 55 per cent, 4 percentage points higher year-on-year.

The Australian Government announced, on 5 December 2013, the conclusion of negotiations on a free trade agreement with the Republic of Korea that provides for a phased elimination of tariffs on key Australian agricultural exports, including beef.

South-East AsiaAustralian beef and veal exports to South-East Asia are forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to around 100 000 tonnes (shipped weight). The Indonesian Government’s decision to adopt a reference price scheme to administer beef imports, instead of using import quotas, is expected to result in increased Australian beef exports to Indonesia. Around 80 per cent of Indonesia’s beef imports are sourced from Australia.

Exports to the rest of South-East Asia are forecast to remain largely unchanged from 2012–13 because of increased competition from India. Australia’s share of beef imports in the rest of South-East Asia is at around 15 per cent. India is the primary supplier of imported bovine meat to the region, largely because of its price competitiveness. India’s bovine exports are primarily carabeef, a type of buffalo meat. The landed price of carabeef in Malaysia in the first nine months of 2013 averaged 16 per cent lower than Australian beef.

Middle EastAustralian beef and veal exports to the Middle East are forecast to increase by 15 per cent to 55 000 tonnes (shipped weight), with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan accounting for most shipments to the region. The Saudi Government continues to enforce a ban on imports of beef from Brazil, previously its largest supplier, after the detection of BSE in Brazil in December 2012. This has resulted in increased demand for Australian beef.

Increase in live cattle exports to IndonesiaAustralian live feeder and slaughter cattle exports are forecast to increase by 27 per cent in 2013–14 to 650 000 head. Cattle exports to Indonesia are assumed to rise in 2013–14 following the Indonesian Government’s decision to allocate additional import permits.

Allocation of additional import permits and adoption of a reference price mechanism for beef and live cattle imports have contributed to increased live cattle export prices in northern Australia. Prices of feeder steers and feeder heifers (ex Darwin) averaged $2.10 a kilogram and $1.90 a kilogram live weight in November 2013, compared with $1.65 a kilogram and $1.45 a kilogram in August 2013. Higher cattle prices are expected to contribute to the value of feeder/slaughter cattle exports increasing by 33 per cent in 2013–14 to a forecast $450 million.

83

Beef and veal


Feeder and slaughter cattle exports, Australia

OtherTurkeyMiddle East

’000head

Other ASEANIndonesia

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

Value (right axis)

2013–14A$m

100

200

300

400

500

600

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

f ABARES forecast.

Under the new reference price mechanism for beef, the Indonesian Ministry of Trade intends to issue permits for cattle and beef imports when the price of secondary beef cuts in Indonesia exceeds the reference price of 76 000 rupiah ($6.98) a kilogram by 15 per cent; imports will be restricted when prices fall to 5 per cent below the reference price. The Indonesian Government will establish a price monitoring team within the Ministry of Trade to evaluate beef prices and recommend a new reference price to the minister, should the need arise. In November 2013 prices of secondary cuts averaged between 94 000 ($8.61) and 107 000 ($9.82) rupiah a kilogram.

Beef and veal outlookBeef and veal outlookBeefandvealoutlook%

unit 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 f%

changeunit 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 f change

Cattle numbers a million 28.4 28.4 27.9 –1.8– beef million 25.7 25.5 25.0 –2.0 beef million 25.7 25.5 25.0 2.0Slaughterings ’000 7 873 8 457 8 930 5 6Slaughterings 000 7 873 8 457 8 930 5.6Production kt 2 115 2 245 2 315 3 1Production kt 2 115 2 245 2 315 3.1E ( hi d i h )Exports (shipped weight)– to Japan kt 326 299 280 –6.4p ( pp g ) to Japan kt 326 299 280 6.4– to United States kt 205 207 230 11 1– to United States kt 205 207 230 11.1t Chi kt 8 92 160 73 9– to China kt 8 92 160 73.9

– to Korea, Rep. of kt 123 138 145 5.1 to Korea, Rep. of kt 123 138 145 5.1– total kt 948 1014 1 085 7.0– total kt 948 1014 1 085 7.0value A$m 4 467 4 866 5 430 11 6– value A$m 4 467 4 866 5 430 11.6

’000 9 13 6 0 26Live cattle exports b ’000 579 513 650 26.7p– value A$m 412 339 450 32.7 value A$m 412 339 450 32.7Pricesaleyard Ac/kg 329 297 305 2 7

Price– saleyard Ac/kg 329 297 305 2.7

S i /k– US import USc/kg 433 439 445 1.4p g– Japan import USc/kg 600 589 570 –3.2 Japan import USc/kg 600 589 570 3.2a At 30 June. b Excludes breeding stock. f ABARES forecast. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Canberra; Meat & Livestock Australia

a At 30 June. b Excludes breeding stock. f ABARES forecast. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Canberra; Meat & Livestock Australia





Lamb prices have fallen in recent months, driven by increased lamb saleyard offerings. Increased lamb turn-off is a result of the large number of spring lambs entering the market because of drier seasonal conditions. Despite the recent price falls, average saleyard prices for the four months to October 2013 were still 10 per cent higher than the same period last year, supported by strong growth in export demand.

For 2013–14 as a whole, the Australian weighted average saleyard price of lamb is forecast to increase by 15 per cent to average 445 cents a kilogram. This follows a 20 per cent decline in 2012–13.

Australian lamb saleyard price and slaughter

Lamb slaughter

millionhead

2013–14Ac/kg

Lamb saleyard price(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

5

10

15

20

25

150

300

450

600

750

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

The weighted average saleyard price for sheep is forecast to rise by 23 per cent in 2013–14 to 230 cents a kilogram, following a 43 per cent fall in 2012–13. Sheep turn-off over the first four months of 2013–14 increased by 44 per cent year-on-year, with strong growth in export demand for mutton, especially from China.

SheepRobert Leith

85

Sheep


Australian sheep saleyard price and slaughter

Sheep slaughter

millionhead

2013–14Ac/kg

Sheep saleyard price(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

100

200

300

400

500

3

6

9

12

15

The Australian Eastern Market Indicator price for wool is forecast to increase by around 6 per cent to average 1100 cents a kilogram clean in 2013–14, following a fall of 14 per cent in 2012–13. This forecast price rise reflects an expected fall in Australian wool production and an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar. Weak US and EU demand for China’s exports of wool textiles and clothing is constraining demand from China for raw wool and therefore limiting the wool price rise. In addition, an abundant supply of fine and superfine wools in Australia continues to put downward pressure on the price premiums of these wool types, relative to medium wool types.

Australian wool auction prices, by micron

Ac/kg

EMI19 micron23 micron

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

26 micron

29 Nov2013

5 Jul2013

22 Feb2013

12 Oct2012

1 Jun2012

3 Feb2012

23 Sep2011

13 May2011

14 Jan2011

3 Sep2010

86

Sheep


ProductionLamb slaughter to fallFollowing a 40-year high in 2012–13, lamb slaughter is forecast to decrease by 1 per cent in 2013–14 to 20.9 million head, despite a year-on-year rise of 9 per cent over the first four months of 2013–14. The rise in slaughter over the past year has lowered breeding stocks, which is expected to result in fewer autumn lambs available for slaughter in the second half of 2013–14. Reflecting this expected decrease, lamb production is forecast to fall by 1 per cent in 2013–14 to 452 000 tonnes.

Sheep slaughter to riseSheep slaughter is forecast to rise by 9 per cent in 2013–14 to 8.9 million head, reflecting dry seasonal conditions across many regions in south-eastern Australia. Adult sheep slaughter over the first four months of 2013–14 increased year-on-year by 44 per cent to around 3.1 million head. The sheep turn-off rate has been high since late spring 2012, when farmers in New South Wales and Victoria faced decreased carrying capacity because of poor pasture growth and higher feed prices. Pasture conditions across parts of these two states remain poor, with below average rainfall in late winter and early spring.

Lower shorn wool productionShorn wool production is forecast to fall by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to around 345 000 tonnes. This reduction reflects lower average wool cut per head because of dry seasonal conditions and a decrease in the number of sheep shorn as a result of the forecast fall in the sheep flock.

Dry seasonal conditions in some wool producing areas have contributed to an increase in fine wool production. According to Australian Wool Testing Authority key test data, 46 per cent of wool tested in the first four months of 2013–14 was less than 19.5 microns, compared with 39 per cent during the same period last year.

ExportsSheep meat export earnings to riseThe value of sheep meat exports is forecast to rise by 14 per cent in 2013–14 to $1.78 billion, reflecting increased export volumes and prices.

High turn-off led to significant growth in lamb exports in the first five months of 2013–14. Lamb exports exceeded 20 000 tonnes in October, the highest monthly volume on record. Despite these record volumes, lamb availability is expected to decline in the remainder of the year. Australian lamb export volumes are forecast to decline by 1 per cent in 2013–14 to 199 000 tonnes. However, the value of lamb exports is forecast to rise by 9 per cent in 2013–14 to $1.18 billion. Strong demand and an assumed depreciation in the Australian dollar are expected to place upward pressure on lamb export prices, which fell by 11 per cent in 2012–13.

The volume of mutton exports is forecast to increase by 10 per cent in 2013–14 to 158 000 tonnes shipped weight, reflecting the forecast increase in slaughter. The value of mutton exports is forecast to rise by 25 per cent in 2013–14 to $598 million.

87

Sheep


Sheep meat exports to ChinaThe forecast growth in sheep meat exports is mainly driven by rapid export growth to China, the largest export market for Australian sheep meat in the first five months of 2013–14. Lamb exports to China rose by 36 per cent year-on-year to around 18 000 tonnes in the five months to November 2013. This was around 24 per cent greater than lamb exports to the United States (14 500 tonnes). Over the same period, the volume of mutton exported to China has more than trebled year-on-year to around 27 700 tonnes. This is more than double the volume shipped to the Middle East (12 500 tonnes), which has been Australia’s largest mutton export destination for over a decade.

Sheep meat exports to China by volume, July to November

MuttonLamb

kt2013–142012–132011–122010–11

5

10

15

20

25

30

Live sheep exportsLive sheep exports are forecast to remain at around 2 million head in 2013–14. Live sheep exports increased in the September quarter 2013 by 2 per cent year-on-year, to 452 000 head. The increased slaughter in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria is expected to result in fewer sheep available for export in the remainder of 2013–14. With sheep export prices forecast to increase, the value of live sheep exports is forecast to rise by 11 per cent to $215 million in 2013–14.

New Zealand lamb production and exports to fall in 2013–14New Zealand is the world’s largest lamb exporter. Drought conditions in New Zealand are expected to cause a drop in lamb production in 2013–14. Beef + Lamb New Zealand forecasts a 7.7 per cent decrease in 2013–14 lamb production. This is because of prolonged drought in the North Island, which has led to a depletion in the number of breeding ewes and deterioration in their condition.

New Zealand lamb exports fell by 1.5 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter 2013, while the proportion of total lamb export volume shipped to China rose to 29 per cent, compared with 20 per cent in the corresponding period last year. New Zealand lamb exports are expected to fall in 2013–14, reflecting the expected fall in production.

88

Sheep


New Zealand lamb exports

OtherUnited States

Middle East

kt

European Union

China

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Wool exports to fallStrong growth in wool shipped to major destinations including China, Malaysia and the Czech Republic resulted in a 16 per cent increase year-on-year in Australian wool exports for the September quarter 2013. The export of fine wool (19 microns and less) increased by 37 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter 2013, while the export of broader wool fell slightly.

Australian greasy wool exports by micron, September quarter

20 micron and stronger19 micron and �ner

kt greasy2013–142012–132011–12

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

89

Sheep


Despite the September quarter increase, total wool exports are forecast to fall by 2 per cent in 2013–14 to around 430 000 tonnes greasy, mainly reflecting the forecast decline in shorn wool production. The value of wool exports is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to around $3 billion, with higher export prices expected to offset the forecast decline in volume. Australian exports of wool to China are forecast to fall by 3 per cent in 2013–14 to 331 000 tonnes greasy, following a 12 per cent increase in 2012–13.

Changing markets for Chinese wool textiles and apparelChina, which accounts for more than three-quarters of Australia’s total wool exports, is the world’s largest producer and exporter of wool textiles and apparel. However, China’s exports of wool textiles and apparel to the United States and the European Union declined in 2012–13, contributing to a 14 per cent fall in Australian wool prices. The value of China’s exports of wool textiles and apparel to the United States fell by 14 per cent in 2012–13 to US$1.84 billion, while the value of exports to the European Union fell by around 22 per cent to US$730 million.

Despite this slowdown in exports, sales of woollen clothing fabric in China increased by 6 per cent in 2012–13, indicating that demand for wool garments in China’s domestic market is not declining. China is now a major market for finished wool products in its own right, consuming around half the wool garments it produces. According to Australian Wool Innovation Limited, the current rate of growth in domestic spending on apparel means China will overtake the United States as the world’s largest apparel market by 2017.

Also partially offsetting China’s falling exports of wool products to the United States and the European Union is increasing demand in South-East Asia. In response to increasing labour costs in China, the processing capacity of South-East Asia has grown in recent years and the region has become a major exporter of textiles and garments. As a result, the value of Chinese wool products exported to the region has risen, increasing by 13 per cent in 2012 to US$319 million, following a 47 per cent increase in 2011. South-East Asia is now the fourth largest export destination for Chinese wool products behind the United States, the European Union and Japan.

90

Sheep


Sheep outlookSheep outlookSheepoutlook%

unit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f%

changeunit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f changellSheep numbers a million 75 74 72 –2.7p

Sheep shorn million 83 82 81 –1.2Sheep shorn million 83 82 81 1.2SlaughteringsL b ’000 18 879 21 122 20 900 1 1Slaughterings Lambs ’000 18 879 21 122 20 900 –1.1Sheep ’000 5 175 8 192 8 940 9.1Sheep 000 5 175 8 192 8 940 9.1Production bLamb kt 419 457 452 1 1Production bLamb kt 419 457 452 –1.1Mutton kt 120 183 200 9.3Wool production (greasy)– shorn kt 362 361 345 –4 4Wool production (greasy)– shorn kt 362 361 345 –4.4

h kt 49 75 75 0 0– other c kt 49 75 75 0.0– total kt 411 435 420 –3.4 total kt 411 435 420 3.4ExportsLamb kt swt 174 201 199 1 0ExportsLamb kt swt 174 201 199 –1.0– to United States kt swt 35 37 36 –2.7Mutton kt swt 89 144 158 9.7Mutton kt swt 89 144 158 9.7Total sheep meat kt swt 263 344 357 3 8Total sheep meat kt swt 263 344 357 3.8

l $ 1 422 1 564 1 777 13 6– value $m 1 422 1 564 1 777 13.6Live sheep d ’000 2 562 2 000 2 000 0.0Live sheep d 000 2 562 2 000 2 000 0.0– value $m 345 194 215 10 8– value $m 345 194 215 10.8WoolWool– volume (gr. equiv.) kt 405 438 430 –1.8 volume (gr. equiv.)– to China kt 306 342 331 –3.2– to China kt 306 342 331 –3.2value e $m 3 123 2 869 2 961 3 2– value e $m 3 123 2 869 2 961 3.2

P iPricesLambs g Ac/kg 480 386 445 15.3Lambs g Ac/kg 480 386 445 15.3Sheep g Ac/kg 330 187 230 23 0Sheep g Ac/kg 330 187 230 23.0E t M k t I di t h A /k 1 203 1 035 1 100 6 3Eastern Market Indicator h Ac/kg 1 203 1 035 1 100 6.3

a At 30 June. b Carcass weight. c Includes wool on sheepskins, fellmongered and slipe wool. d Includes animals for breeding. e Balance of payments basis. f ABARES forecast. g Saleyard prices. h Clean equivalent. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Wool Exchange; Department of Agriculture, Canberra








World prices for dairy products are forecast to average higher in 2013–14. This reflects limited growth in supplies from key exporting countries and continuing firm world import demand.

World dairy product prices rose strongly in March and April 2013 largely in response to strong import demand, particularly for milk powders, and lower milk production in the main dairy exporting countries. Prices have since remained high, averaging 9 per cent to 30 per cent higher year-on-year in the first quarter of 2013–14. World dairy product prices are not expected to soften until early 2014 when increased supplies are expected to enter the world market from the European Union, New Zealand and the United States.

World dairy product prices are forecast to rise by between 6 per cent and 20 per cent in 2013–14, with milk powder prices forecast to increase the most. In 2013–14 world prices of whole milk powder are forecast to rise by around 20 per cent and of skim milk powder by 15 per cent to average US$4600 a tonne and US$4290 a tonne, respectively.

World dairy prices

US$/t

Cheese

Whole milk powderSkim milk powder

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Butter

Oct2013

Oct2012

Oct2011

Oct2010

Oct2009

Oct2008

Oct2007

Oct2006

Oct2005

Oct2004

DairyCaitlin Murray

92

Dairy


Global milk supplies increasingGlobal milk production is forecast to increase in 2013–14. This increase largely reflects forecast lower feed grain prices and a return to favourable seasonal conditions in the main dairy exporting countries.

European UnionEU milk production is forecast to increase by 1 per cent in the 2013–14 marketing year (April to March) despite reduced production in the first quarter because of adverse seasonal conditions. This increase in production will largely be driven by forecast higher farmgate milk prices in the European Union, forecast lower feed costs and increased availability of grass and forage.

EU farmgate milk prices are averaging 13 per cent higher year-on-year for the first five months of the 2013–14 marketing year. Average farmgate milk prices in this period increased most in Spain, Latvia, the United Kingdom and Germany.

EU milk deliveries and farmgate price

Milk deliveries

Mt Euro/100kg

EU-27 farmgatemilk price (right axis)

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

6

12

18

24

30

36

42

Aug2013

Feb2013

Aug2012

Feb2012

Aug2011

Feb2011

Aug2010

Feb2010

Aug2009

Feb2009

The EU dairy herd increased slightly in 2012 to around 23.2 million head, after many years of decline. In the 2013–14 season the number of dairy cows is forecast to remain stable. Farmers in some of the large dairy producing nations are expected to increase their herds in preparation for the disbanding of the EU dairy quota system in April 2015. However, this is likely to be offset by the culling of dairy cows in inefficient dairy producing regions.

Subdued domestic demand for dairy products in the European Union in 2013–14 is expected to result in an increase in dairy products directed to export markets, including the Russian Federation, the Middle East and Asia.

93

Dairy


United StatesAfter an estimated small increase in 2013, US milk production is forecast to rise by a further 1.5 per cent in 2014 to 93 million tonnes. This is a result of higher milk yields per cow and a moderate increase in the dairy herd. Feed grain prices are forecast to be lower in 2014. This is expected to result in an increase in the milk-to-feed price ratio and improved profitability for dairy farmers. In response, dairy farmers are expected to commence herd rebuilding and increase supplement feed with higher quality rations for higher milk yields.

Increased production in 2013 and 2014 is expected to result in a rise in dairy product exports. US butter exports in 2013 are expected to be around 40 per cent more than in 2012 at 66 000 tonnes.

New ZealandNew Zealand milk production is forecast to increase by around 5 per cent in 2013–14 (June to May). This follows a 1.6 per cent decline in production in 2012–13 because of dry seasonal conditions, particularly in the North Island. A return to average seasonal conditions and a moderate increase in the dairy herd are expected to result in higher milk production in 2013–14.

Farmgate milk prices in New Zealand are forecast to reach record highs in 2013–14. Farmgate milk prices averaged 46 per cent higher year-on-year in the first four months of the season.

New Zealand milk production, year-on-year monthly change

kt–500–400–300–200–100

1000

200300400

Aug2013

Feb2013

Aug2012

Feb2012

Aug2011

Feb2011

New Zealand exports are forecast to rise in 2013–14 supported by firm export demand, particularly from China and South-East Asia for milk powders. In 2012–13 New Zealand exported more than 3 million tonnes of skim and whole milk powder to China and South-East Asia.

94

Dairy


Latin AmericaArgentinean milk production in 2013 is estimated at around 11.7 million tonnes, similar to 2012 production. Milk production in the first half of 2013 was affected by unfavourable seasonal conditions. This decline in production flowed through to exports, which were significantly lower in the first half of 2013 than in 2012. Exports have since rebounded in line with the return of more favourable seasonal conditions in the second half of 2013.

In 2014 Argentinean milk production is forecast to rise by around 3 per cent in response to higher farmgate milk prices and lower feed grain costs. Dairy product exports are expected to grow in line with the increase in milk production.

Global import demand growingFirm import demand for dairy products in 2013–14 is expected to be supported by economic growth in Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. Firm import demand is expected to underpin increased trade in dairy products.

AsiaChina, the world’s largest importer of milk powders, is estimated to have imported more than 500 000 tonnes of whole milk powder and around 155 000 tonnes of skim milk powder in 2013. This is 16 per cent more than in 2012.

China’s demand for imported milk powder is expected to remain strong in 2014, driven by continuing consumer concerns over the safety of domestically produced dairy products.

Chinese whole milk powder production and imports

Imports

Production

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2013f201220112010200920082007200620052004

Demand for milk powders in South-East Asia is expected to remain firm in 2014, reflecting economic growth in most South-East Asian countries. Indonesia, the largest importer of milk powders in the region, is estimated to have imported around 215 000 tonnes of skim milk powder in 2013. While Indonesia’s milk production has increased in recent years, it has been unable to meet the growth in domestic demand for dairy products.

95

Dairy


Middle East and North AfricaDairy product imports by countries in the Middle East and North Africa increased in 2013. Algeria, the largest importer in the region, increased imports of milk powders by 7 per cent to an estimated 300 000 tonnes in 2013. With little growth in milk production expected in these countries in the short term, domestic demand growth will be met through higher imports.

Russian FederationCheese imports by the Russian Federation, the world’s largest cheese importer, are estimated at around 360 000 tonnes in 2013. High feed grain costs in the Russian Federation in 2013 constrained milk production, resulting in increased demand for dairy imports. The Russian Federation has increasingly sourced cheese from countries outside the European Union. Australian cheese exports to the Russian Federation increased by 42 per cent in 2012–13 to $5.3 million.

Russian Federation cheese imports

Other

European Union

2013US$b

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2012201120102009200820072006200520042003

Australian milk productionThe Australian average farmgate price for milk is forecast to increase by around 22 per cent in 2013–14 to 47.7 cents a litre, reflecting the effect of higher world dairy product prices and an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar.

Australian milk production is forecast to decline slightly to 9.1 billion litres in 2013–14. Increased production in dairy regions in northern Victoria is likely to be offset by reduced production in western Victoria and northern New South Wales because of dry seasonal conditions. Australian milk production declined 4 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2013–14, with the largest decline in western Victoria.

The national dairy cow herd is estimated to have risen slightly in 2012–13 to around 1.71 million head and is forecast to remain around this level in 2013–14. The small increase in the dairy herd in 2012–13 mostly occurred in New South Wales and Western Australia.

96

Dairy


Australian milk production, year-on-year monthly change

ML

–80–60–40–20

020406080

100

Sep2013

Mar2013

Sep2012

Mar2012

Sep2011

Mar2011

Sep2010

Mar2010

Sep2009

Mar2009

Australian exportsThe total value of Australian dairy exports is forecast to increase by around 24 per cent in 2013–14 to $2.8 billion, reflecting forecast higher dairy prices on world markets and an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar.

Dairy outlookDairy outlookDairyoutlook%

unit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f changeunit 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f changeAustraliaAustraliaCow numbers a ’000 1 700 1 707 1 710 0.2Cow numbers aMilk yields L/cow 5 577 5 389 5 339 –0.9Milk yields L/cow 5 577 5 389 5 339 0.9Production

l ilkProductionTotal milk ML 9 480 9 200 9 130 –0.8– market sales ML 2 389 2 450 2 432 –0.7 market sales ML 2 389 2 450 2 432 0.7– manufacturing ML 7 092 6 750 6 698 –0.8– manufacturing ML 7 092 6 750 6 698 –0.8Butter b kt 120 118 117 –0 8Butter b kt 120 118 117 –0.8Cheese kt 347 338 336 0 6Cheese kt 347 338 336 –0.6Wh l ilk d k 140 109 108 0 9Whole milk powder kt 140 109 108 –0.9pSkim milk powder kt 230 224 223 –0.4Skim milk powder kt 230 224 223 0.4Farmgate milk price Ac/L 42.1 39.0 47.7 22.3Farmgate milk price Ac/L 42.1 39.0 47.7 22.3Value of exports A$m 2 292 2 229 2 766 24 1Value of exports A$m 2 292 2 229 2 766 24.1

ld iWorld pricesButter US$/t 3 883 3 727 4 100 10.0

pButter US$/t 3 883 3 727 4 100 10.0Cheese US$/t 4 258 4 150 4 400 6.0Cheese US$/t 4 258 4 150 4 400 6.0Skim milk powder US$/t 3 233 3 731 4 290 15 0Skim milk powder US$/t 3 233 3 731 4 290 15.0Wh l ilk d US$/t 3 431 3 831 4 600 20 1Whole milk powder US$/t 3 431 3 831 4 600 20.1a At 30 June. b Includes the butter equivalent of butter oil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Dairy Australia

a At 30 June. b Includes the butter equivalent of butter oil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Dairy Australia






High performing farmsPeter Martin

A strong and vibrant agricultural sector requires that farmers receive returns on production that help them grow and prosper. With more than 95 per cent of Australian broadacre and dairy farms being family farms, achieving reasonable returns means earning sufficient income to support the family, fund productivity improvement over the long term and provide an acceptable return on capital.

In 2011–12, 58 per cent of broadacre farms and 36 per cent of dairy farms in Australia made a loss (in terms of farm business profit) (ABARES 2013). In any year, regions and industries can face adverse conditions resulting in low farm profitability. For example, dry seasonal conditions in 2013 have greatly reduced profitability of broadacre farms in much of Queensland, parts of the Northern Territory and north-western New South Wales.

While year-to-year losses can occur because of seasonal conditions and other reasons, farmers who continue to make losses over the longer term will become unviable. The best performing farms have consistently higher profits and rates of return. Identifying the characteristics of high performing farms can assist in understanding the potential for improvement across the sector and provide insight into current and future pressures for structural adjustment.

Defining high performanceABARES farm surveys collect comprehensive financial performance information from farm businesses. This enables generation of measures that capture differing elements of farm financial performance, including profitability, change in net business worth, return on capital and disposable income earned by the farm’s operators.

In this analysis, farm businesses have been classified into performance categories, based on the rate of return (excluding capital appreciation) to all capital used in the business. Rate of return to total farm capital is a relatively complete measure of farm financial performance that values all farm inputs and is not as strongly correlated with farm size as many other financial performance measures. Adjustments have been made to reduce the effect of changes in commodity prices, seasonal conditions and other year-specific effects on farm performance. Three-year moving average rates of return have been calculated for each sample farm in the ABARES farm survey database of broadacre and dairy farms. Farms have been classified into performance groups on the basis of these averages. Farms have been classified into the top performing 25 per cent of farms by rate of return, middle performing 50 per cent and bottom performing 25 per cent.

98

High performing farms


Characteristics of high performing farmsSubstantial differences exist for each of the financial performance measures between the average financial performance of top performing farms and that of middle and bottom performing farms.

ABARES analysis indicates that the gap between top and bottom performing farms has increased over time. While the bottom performing broadacre farms struggled to generate positive farm cash incomes during the past two decades, the top 25 per cent of farms generated cash incomes exceeding $200 000 (in real terms) in 13 of the past 20 years (ABARES 2013).

Over the 20 years ending 2011–12, the top performing 25 per cent of farms recorded average rates of return to capital used (excluding capital appreciation) of 5.9 per cent a year, much higher than the average annual rate of return of 1.1 per cent a year for all broadacre farms.

Estimates for farms, by rate of return on total capital used, 2007–08 to 2011–12, all broadacre industries average per farm

Top 25% Middle 50% Bottom 25%

Size of operation

Total area operated ha 11 500 (4) 5 300 (5) 4 700 (7)

Area sown to crop ha 1 000 (2) 300 (3) 200 (6)

Beef cattle no. 600 (3) 400 (2) 100 (6)

Sheep no. 2 300 (3) 1 000 (3) 500 (6)

Financial performance of farm business

Total cash receipts $ 896 200 (3) 313 800 (2) 137 500 (4)

Total cash costs $ 605 100 (3) 248 000 (2) 152 600 (4)

Farm cash income $ 291 100 (3) 65 800 (4) –15 200 (23)

Farm business profit $ 219 800 (4) –12 400 (19) –90 900 (4)

Farm business debt and equity at 30 June

Farm business debt $ 1 045 700 (3) 408 400 (4) 211 900 (7)

Net business worth $ 4 830 400 (2) 3 713 100 (2) 1 661 700 (3)

Equity ratio % 83 (1) 90 (1) 88 (1)

Liquid assets available to farm business at 30 June

Farm management deposits $ 74 900 (6) 28 200 (9) 6 300 (21)

Other liquid assets $ 148 500 (6) 121 800 (6) 97 500 (13)

Debt servicing

Interest paid to receipts percentage % 8 (3) 9 (3) 11 (6)

Debt to receipts percentage % 123 (3) 137 (3) 169 (6)

Household income of owner–manager and partner a

Household off-farm income $ 28 200 (4) 32 700 (5) 40 300 (6)

Total net household income $ 186 400 (3) 58 700 (4) 10 600 (33)

Share of net household income earned off-farm % 15 (5) 56 (4) 100 (31)

a Owner–manager and partner’s share of net farm income (farm cash income less depreciation) plus off-farm income. Note: Figures in parentheses are standard errors expressed as a percentage of the estimate provided. Source: AAGIS

99



Estimates for farms, by rate of return on total capital used, 2007–08 to 2011–12, broadacre and dairy farms

Top 25% Middle 50% Bottom 25%

Contribution to industry gross value of production

Northern beef industry % 54 (4) 37 (5) 8 (21)

Southern beef industry % 54 (3) 34 (4) 12 (26)

Grains industry % 47 (2) 45 (2) 9 (4)

Sheep industry % 53 (4) 39 (3) 8 (8)

All broadacre industries % 54 (3) 38 (2) 8 (4)

Dairy industry % 37 (2) 51 (2) 12 (5)

Size of operation in sheep equivalents (average per farm)

Northern beef industry se 33 000 (3) 10 000 (3) 5 000 (14)

Southern beef industry se 8 000 (3) 3 000 (9) 2 000 (11)

Grains industry se 20 000 (2) 12 000 (2) 7 000 (6)

Sheep industry se 9 000 (4) 4 000 (4) 2 000 (8)

All broadacre industries se 19 000 (2) 8 000 (2) 4 000 (4)

Dairy industry se 8 000 (3) 6 000 (3) 4 000 (6)

Total farm cash receipts (average per farm)

Northern beef industry $ 858 000 (4) 292 000 (5) 133 000 (21)

Southern beef industry $ 375 000 (4) 123 000 (9) 86 000 (8)

Grains industry $ 1 087 000 (2) 519 000 (2) 209 000 (5)

Sheep industry $ 557 000 (4) 209 000 (3) 93 000 (8)

All broadacre industries $ 896 000 (3) 314 000 (2) 137 000 (4)

Dairy industry $ 936 000 (2) 647 000 (3) 314 000 (6)

Farm cash income (average per farm)

Northern beef industry $ 238 000 (8) 53 000 (21) –28 000 (44)

Southern beef industry $ 124 000 (5) 14 000 (16) –18 000 (36)

Grains industry $ 383 000 (4) 102 000 (5) –28 000 (54)

Sheep industry $ 208 000 (5) 46 000 (7) –1 000 (99)

All broadacre industries $ 291 000 (3) 66 000 (4) –15 000 (23)

Dairy industry $ 266 000 (4) 114 000 (7) –4 000 (99)

Farm debt business debt (average per farm)

Northern beef industry $ 1 419 000 (8) 431 000 (8) 176 000 (42)

Southern beef industry $ 323 000 (8) 136 000 (32) 135 000 (17)

Grains industry $ 1 099 000 (4) 737 000 (5) 375 000 (10)

Sheep industry $ 495 000 (7) 238 000 (7) 106 000 (19)

All broadacre industries $ 1 046 000 (3) 408 000 (4) 212 000 (7)

Dairy industry $ 936 000 (6) 733 000 (5) 390 000 (17)

Note: Figures in parentheses are standard errors expressed as a percentage of the estimate provided. Source: AAGIS; ADIS

100



These high performing farms account for a large share of the total value of agricultural production. For example, they accounted for 54 per cent of the value of output from all broadacre farms. By contrast, the bottom performing 25 per cent of farms accounted for just 8 per cent.

They also account for the majority of new investment. Over the three years ending 2011–12, top performing farms accounted for 64 per cent of net capital additions on broadacre farms. By contrast, the bottom performing 25 per cent of farms accounted for just 2 per cent. Relatively high rates of new investment for high performing farms are likely to support significant productivity gains to improve farm cash incomes in real terms over the longer term, as well as increases in aggregate farm production.

High performing farms dominate land purchases and account for a high proportion of aggregate sector debt. For example, they accounted for 54 per cent of aggregate broadacre sector debt and around 58 per cent of aggregate debt in the northern beef industry (in Queensland, the Northern Territory and northern Western Australia).

Despite accounting for a high proportion of debt, high performing farms have less difficulty servicing debt than the average for the sector. For example, in the three years ending 2011–12, the proportion of farm receipts consumed to service interest payments averaged 8 per cent for high performing broadacre farms and 12 per cent for bottom performing farms.

Operators of top performing farms earn much higher household incomes and generally derive a much larger proportion of their total household income from the farm business than bottom performing farms. High performing farms are found across all farm sizes and in most regions of Australia. This suggests there is potential for improving the financial performance of many farms across Australia.

Analysis by ABARES indicates that features associated with high performing broadacre farms include:• better management capability• larger scale of operation (although some medium and a few smaller scale farms

also perform well)• higher water use efficiency• high productivity, including higher herd and flock productivity• lower enterprise and overhead costs• greater reliance on grain growing.

ReferencesABARES 2013, Australian farm survey results, 2010–11 to 2012–13, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra, available at daff.gov.au/abares/publications_remote_content/publication_series/farm_survey_results.

Major financial performance indicatorsTotal cash receipts: total revenues received by the business during the financial year

Total cash costs: payments made by the business for materials and services and for permanent and casual hired labour (excluding owner manager, partner and family labour)

Farm cash income: total cash receipts – total cash costs

Farm business profit: farm cash income + change in trading stocks – depreciation – imputed labour costs

101Department of Agriculture, Fisheries & Forestry Document Title Goes Here

Running Main Header Milo Pro Medium 8ptRunning Sub Header Milo Pro Light 8pt

Statistical tables


Figures

1 Contribution to GDP 103

2 Markets for Australian merchandise exports 103

3 Sources of Australian merchandise imports 104

4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal) 105

5 Contribution to exports by sector, balance of payments basis 111

Tables

1 Indexes of prices received by farmers 108

2 Indexes of prices paid by farmers, and terms of trade 109

3 Farm costs and returns 110

4 Volume of production indexes 112

5 Industry gross value added 112

6 Employment 113

7 All banks lending to business 113

8 Rural indebtedness to financial institutions 114

9 Annual world indicator prices of selected commodities 114

10 Gross unit values of farm products 115

11 World production, consumption, stocks and trade for selected commodities 116

12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production 118

13 Gross value of farm, fisheries and forestry production 120

14 Crop areas and livestock numbers 122

15 Average farm yields 123

16 Volume of agricultural and fisheries exports 124

17 Value of agricultural and fisheries exports (fob) 126

18 Volume of forest products exports 128

19 Value of forest products exports (fob) 129

20 Volume of forest products imports 130

21 Value of forest products imports 131

22 Volume of fisheries products exports 132

23 Value of fisheries products exports (fob) 133

24 Volume of fisheries products imports 134

25 Value of fisheries products imports 135

26 Agricultural exports to Japan (fob) 136

27 Agricultural exports to the United States (fob) 137

28 Agricultural exports to China (fob) 138

29 Value of Australian forest products trade, by selected countries 139

30 Value of Australian fisheries products trade, by selected countries 140

31 Food exports by level of transformation 141

32 Food imports by level of transformation 142

33 Total food exports, by selected destination 143

34 Total food imports, by selected source country 143

103

GDP, exports

FIGURE 1 Contribution to GDP Australia, chain volume measures, reference year 2011–12

Services 74%

Mining 10%

Manufacturing 7%

Building and construction 7%

Agriculture, �shing and forestry 2%

Services 75%

Manufacturing 9%

Mining 8%

Building and construction 6%

Agriculture, �shing and forestry 2%

2012–13

$1525.5b

2002–03

$1135.0b

FIGURE 2 Markets for Australian merchandise exports in 2012–13 dollars

Japan 37% Japan 19%

China 9% China 23%

New Zealand 18% New Zealand 13%

Malaysia 2% Malaysia 4%

Taiwan 2% Taiwan 3%

Hong Kong 3% Hong Kong 1%

Indonesia 4% Indonesia 2%

Other 25% Other 35%

China 8% China 21%

Japan 16% Japan 11%

ASEAN 17% ASEAN 19%

Other Asia 13% Other Asia 15%

European Union 28 11% European Union 28 7%

Middle East 7% Middle East 10%

United States 11% United States 6%

Other 17% Other 11%

Japan 19% Japan 19%

China 8% China 32%

Korea, Rep. of 8% Korea, Rep. of 8%


New Zealand 7% New Zealand 3%

India 2% India 5%

European Union 28 14% European Union 28 6%

Other 33% Other 23%

Japan 36% Japan 23%

Hong Kong 26% Hong Kong 32%

China 4% China 4%


Singapore 3% Singapore 3%

Taiwan 5% Taiwan 1%

Vietnam 0% Vietnam 25%

Other 15% Other 9%

2012–132002–03

Total $151.4b $247.1b

$35.8b $38.0bAgriculture

$2.4b $1.2bFisheries

$2.7b $2.0bForestry


Import markets

FIGURE 3 Sources of Australian merchandise imports in 2012–13 dollars

New Zealand 19%

China 6%

Indonesia 9%

United States 9%

Malaysia 4%

Germany 5%

Finland 6%

Other 42%

New Zealand 14%

China 22%

Indonesia 8%

United States 7%

Malaysia 5%

Germany 3%

Finland 5%

Other 36%

United States 17%

Japan 12%

China 10%

Germany 6%

Malaysia 3%

Singapore 3%

New Zealand 4%

Other 45%

United States 11%

Japan 8%

China 19%

Germany 5%

Malaysia 4%

Singapore 6%

New Zealand 3%

Other 44%

China 4%

ASEAN 13%

Other Asia 5%

European Union 28 32%

New Zealand 17%

United States 14%

Other 15%

China 6%

ASEAN 18%

Other Asia 5%

European Union 28 26%

New Zealand 18%

United States 12%

Other 15%

2012–132002–03

Total $174.6b $236.7b

$8.1b $11.8bAgriculture

$5.4b $4.1b

$1.6b $1.6b

Forestry

FisheriesThailand 20%

New Zealand 16%

China 4%

Vietnam 6%

Malaysia 3%

United States 4%

Other 47%

Thailand 25%

New Zealand 13%

China 12%

Vietnam 10%

Malaysia 5%

United States 3%

Other 32%


Export markets

FIGURE 4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal)

Quantity wheat

kt

Value wheat

$m

Quantity barley

kt

Value barley

$m

Quantity sugar

kt

Value sugar

$m

Quantity wine

ML

Value wine

$m

2012–132002–03

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

China

Japan

United ArabEmirates

Saudi Arabia

Korea, Rep. of

Vietnam

China

Japan

United ArabEmirates

Saudi Arabia

Korea, Rep. of

Vietnam

Korea, Rep. of

Indonesia

Malaysia

Japan

New Zealand

United States

Korea, Rep. of

Indonesia

Malaysia

Japan

New Zealand

United States

50 100 150 200 250 200 400 600 1000800

Indonesia

Vietnam

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

Iran

Iraq

Indonesia

Vietnam

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

Iran

Iraq

100 200 300 400 500 600

500 1000 1500 2000 100 200 400300 500

300 600 900 1200 1500

200 400 600 800 1000 1200

United Kingdom

United States

Canada

China

Hong Kong

New Zealand

United Kingdom

United States

Canada

China

Hong Kong

New Zealand

continued...


Export markets

FIGURE 4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal) continued

Quantity wool

kt

Value wool

$m

Quantity beef and veal

kt

Value beef and veal

$m

Quantity sheep meat

kt

Value sheep meat

$m

Quantity cheese

kt

Value cheese

$m

2012–132002–03

China

India

Italy

Czech Republic

Taiwan

Korea, Rep. of

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

China

India

Italy

Czech Republic

Taiwan

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

United States

Korea, Rep. of

RussianFederation

RussianFederation

Indonesia

Taiwan

Japan

United States

Korea, Rep. of

Indonesia

Taiwan

United States

China

United ArabEmirates

Saudi Arabia

Japan

EuropeanUnion 28

Japan

Korea, Rep. of

Malaysia

Singapore

Hong Kong

China

20 40 60 80 120100 100 200 300 500400

United States

China

United ArabEmirates

EuropeanUnion 28

Japan

Saudi Arabia

100 200 300 400 300 600 900 1200 1500

20 40 60 80 100

Japan

Korea, Rep. of

Malaysia

Singapore

Hong Kong

China

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

continued...


Export markets

FIGURE 4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal) continued

Quantity paper and paperboard

kt

Value paper and paperboard

$m

Quantity woodchips

kt

Value woodchips

$m

Quantity edible �sh

kt

Value edible �sh

$m

Quantity edible crustaceans and molluscs Value edible crustaceans and molluscs

$m

2012–132002–03

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

New Zealand

United States

China

South Africa

Philippines

New Zealand

United States

China

South Africa

Philippines

50 100 150 200 250

Japan

China

Taiwan

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Japan

China

Thailand

Hong Kong

New Zealand

United States

Japan

China

Thailand

Hong Kong

New Zealand

United States

Hong Kong

China

Japan

Singapore

Taiwan

Malaysia

Hong Kong

China

Japan

Singapore

Taiwan

Malaysia

100 200

Japan

China

Taiwan

kt

50 100 150 200 250 300

3 6 9 12 15

2 4 6 8 10 300 400


Prices

TABLE 1 Indexes of prices received by farmers Australia

STATISTICS

1 Indexes of prices received by farmers Australia1IndexesofpricesreceivedbyfarmersAustralia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 f2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 f

Crops sectorCrops sector G iGrainsWinter crops

barley 145.3 108.3 135.8 131.7 168.0 144.1Winter crops

barley 145.3 108.3 135.8 131.7 168.0 144.1canola 142 2 114 2 141 1 133 1 142 3 127 4canola 142.2 114.2 141.1 133.1 142.3 127.4lupins 142 9 127 2 136 9 118 7 173 5 156 1lupins 142.9 127.2 136.9 118.7 173.5 156.1oats 158.3 116.9 143.2 147.7 172.3 144.2wheat 142.1 110.4 130.1 114.6 158.1 167.2wheat 142.1 110.4 130.1 114.6 158.1 167.2

Summer cropsgrain sorghum 121 3 115 9 125 8 111 6 141 6 139 9

Summer cropsgrain sorghum 121.3 115.9 125.8 111.6 141.6 139.9

T t l i 137 5 108 7 126 2 115 7 147 4 145 0Total grains a 137.5 108.7 126.2 115.7 147.4 145.0

Cotton 96.7 98.4 103.6 110.8 98.0 99.6Cotton 96.7 98.4 103.6 110.8 98.0 99.6Sugar 98 3 137 8 128 0 147 1 137 0 124 2Sugar 98.3 137.8 128.0 147.1 137.0 124.2H 219 0 181 5 151 1 128 4 136 1 149 7Hay 219.0 181.5 151.1 128.4 136.1 149.7Fruit 148.2 146.6 181.8 181.4 156.5 160.1Vegetables 152.9 150.3 167.3 161.3 172.8 176.7Vegetables 152.9 150.3 167.3 161.3 172.8 176.7Total crops sector 120.2 108.8 122.3 118.2 130.2 129.6Total crops sector 120.2 108.8 122.3 118.2 130.2 129.6

Li t k tLivestock sectorLivestock for slaughter

cattle 164.6 160.0 172.6 173.3 163.3 168.0ivestock for slaughter cattle 164.6 160.0 172.6 173.3 163.3 168.0

lambs b 204 3 218 7 255 4 250 8 179 4 219 0 lambs b 204.3 218.7 255.4 250.8 179.4 219.0sheep 216 8 343 3 438 0 390 3 196 3 256 5 sheep 216.8 343.3 438.0 390.3 196.3 256.5li h f t 213 4 248 4 304 6 343 7 247 6 274 2 live sheep for export 213.4 248.4 304.6 343.7 247.6 274.2p p

pigs 153.5 147.1 135.7 134.5 132.5 141.8 pigs 153.5 147.1 135.7 134.5 132.5 141.8poultry 120.0 114.1 109.8 112.6 118.1 118.9 poultry 120.0 114.1 109.8 112.6 118.1 118.9total 163 0 163 8 175 5 176 1 158 9 168 6 total 163.0 163.8 175.5 176.1 158.9 168.6

Livestock productsl 109 2 116 0 158 4 169 2 144 4 154 0

Livestock products wool 109.2 116.0 158.4 169.2 144.4 154.0 milk 142.3 125.2 144.8 140.9 134.3 159.8 milk eggs 108.6 105.5 104.2 104.1 107.4 108.5 eggs 108.6 105.5 104.2 104.1 107.4 108.5

total 127 6 120 0 144 6 146 0 135 0 151 7 total 127.6 120.0 144.6 146.0 135.0 151.7Store and breeding stock 161 9 168 3 194 0 199 5 173 2 179 7Store and breeding stock 161.9 168.3 194.0 199.5 173.2 179.7T l li k 147 6 145 7 162 8 164 0 148 8 160 7Total livestock sector 147.6 145.7 162.8 164.0 148.8 160.7

Total prices received 131 8 124 7 139 7 137 7 138 8 143 4Total prices received 131.8 124.7 139.7 137.7 138.8 143.4

a Total for the group includes commodities not separately listed. b Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18–22 kg.f ABARES forecast.Notes: The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Indexes for most individual commodities are based on annual gross unit value of production. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Source: ABARES










Prices

TABLE 2 Indexes of prices paid by farmers, and terms of trade Australia

STATISTICS

2 Indexes of prices paid by farmers and terms of trade Australia2Indexesofpricespaidbyfarmers,andtermsoftradeAustralia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 f2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 f

F ’ f d 88 5 88 6 96 4 93 5 95 8 98 9Farmers’ terms of trade a 88.5 88.6 96.4 93.5 95.8 98.9

Materials and servicesMaterials and servicesSeed fodder and livestock

f dd d f d t ff 168 0 145 8 121 0 115 5 127 0 124 7Seed, fodder and livestock

fodder and feedstuffs 168.0 145.8 121.0 115.5 127.0 124.7seed, seedlings and plants 120.7 109.4 120.0 116.4 128.0 128.5seed, seedlings and plants 0 09 0 0 6 8 0 8 5store and breeding stock 161.9 168.3 194.0 199.5 173.2 179.7store and breeding stock 161.9 168.3 194.0 199.5 173.2 179.7total 161 0 147 0 137 8 135 1 137 9 137 8total 161.0 147.0 137.8 135.1 137.9 137.8

Chemicals 136 7 116 2 110 4 112 6 110 3 109 7Chemicals 136.7 116.2 110.4 112.6 110.3 109.7El i i 121 5 142 1 158 9 176 8 180 8 185 0Electricity 121.5 142.1 158.9 176.8 180.8 185.0yFertiliser 239.6 156.0 157.3 165.5 157.9 148.4Fertiliser 239.6 156.0 157.3 165.5 157.9 148.4Fuel and lubricants 211.0 191.7 211.3 228.2 209.9 217.3Fuel and lubricants 211.0 191.7 211.3 228.2 209.9 217.3Total 164 0 146 4 146 1 149 3 148 9 149 6Total 164.0 146.4 146.1 149.3 148.9 149.6

bLabour 142.6 147.3 151.9 155.7 159.3 163.0

Marketing 137 2 134 0 144 8 154 1 151 1 157 3Marketing 137.2 134.0 144.8 154.1 151.1 157.3

O h dOverheadsInsurance 155.6 167.0 173.7 185.8 190.0 194.4Insurance 155.6 167.0 173.7 185.8 190.0 194.4Interest paid 116.8 111.2 122.3 114.9 98.2 87.1Interest paid 116.8 111.2 122.3 114.9 98.2 87.1Rates and taxes 141 6 144 9 149 4 153 0 156 4 160 1Rates and taxes 141.6 144.9 149.4 153.0 156.4 160.1Other overheads 137 2 140 6 144 9 148 4 151 8 155 3Other overheads 137.2 140.6 144.9 148.4 151.8 155.3

lTotal 126.6 124.3 133.7 129.9 118.9 111.8

Capital items 141 2 144 8 149 3 153 2 157 0 161 0Capital items 141.2 144.8 149.3 153.2 157.0 161.0

l i idTotal prices paid 148.9 140.8 144.8 147.2 144.9 144.9p pExcluding capital items 149 9 140 4 144 4 146 6 143 7 143 3Excluding capital items 149.9 140.4 144.4 146.6 143.7 143.3E l di it l d h d 156 7 144 9 147 1 151 3 151 1 153 1Excluding capital and overheads 156.7 144.9 147.1 151.3 151.1 153.1E l di d f dd dExcluding seed, fodder and

store and breeding stock 146.4 139.4 146.2 149.7 146.3 146.4g ,

store and breeding stock 146.4 139.4 146.2 149.7 146.3 146.4

a Ratio of index of prices received by farmers and index of prices paid by farmers. f ABARES forecast.Notes: The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES (compiled from various market sources); Australian Bureau of Statistics








Costs and returns

TABLE 3 Farm costs and returns Australia

STATISTICS

3 Farm costs and returns Australia3FarmcostsandreturnsAustraliait 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 f

CCosts Materials and services

chemicals $m 1 792 1 496 1 435 1 461 1 422 1 414Materials and services

chemicals $m 1 792 1 496 1 435 1 461 1 422 1 414fertiliser $m 3 381 2 145 2 217 2 332 2 213 2 070fertiliser $m 3 381 2 145 2 217 2 332 2 213 2 070fuel and lubricants $m 2 243 1 966 2 230 2 397 2 184 2 232fuel and lubricants $m 2 243 1 966 2 230 2 397 2 184 2 232

k i $marketing $m 3 733 3 814 3 841 4 009 3 756 4 064grepairs and maintenance $m 3 080 3 004 3 702 3 929 4 054 4 462repairs and maintenance $m 3 080 3 004 3 702 3 929 4 054 4 462seed and fodder $m 5 263 4 543 4 202 4 094 4 589 4 559seed and fodder $m 5 263 4 543 4 202 4 094 4 589 4 559other $m 3 829 3 968 4 289 4 432 4 495 4 650other $m 3 829 3 968 4 289 4 432 4 495 4 650total $m 23 320 20 935 21 916 22 656 22 715 23 452total $m 23 320 20 935 21 916 22 656 22 715 23 452

L b $ 3 827 3 784 4 120 4 245 4 326 4 367Labour $m 3 827 3 784 4 120 4 245 4 326 4 367Overheads

interest paid $m 4 331 4 455 5 023 4 836 4 341 4 042interest paid $m 4 331 4 455 5 023 4 836 4 341 4 042rent and third party insurance $m 477 494 513 525 537 550rent and third party insurance $m 477 494 513 525 537 550

Total $m 8 634 8 733 9 655 9 607 9 204 8 958Total $m 8 634 8 733 9 655 9 607 9 204 8 958

Total cash costs $m 31 955 29 668 31 571 32 262 31 919 32 410Total cash costs $m 31 955 29 668 31 571 32 262 31 919 32 410Depreciation a $m 4 676 4 792 4 944 5 072 5 199 5 331Depreciation a $m 4 676 4 792 4 944 5 072 5 199 5 331Total farm costs $m 36 631 34 460 36 515 37 334 37 118 37 741Total farm costs $m 36 631 34 460 36 515 37 334 37 118 37 741

Returns Gross value of farm production $m 41 929 39 666 46 981 48 049 47 892 50 896Returns Gross value of farm production $m 41 929 39 666 46 981 48 049 47 892 50 896

N d d iNet returns and production Net value of farm production b $m 5 298 5 205 10 466 10 715 10 774 13 155

pNet value of farm production b $m 5 298 5 205 10 466 10 715 10 774 13 155Real net value of farm production c $m 5 977 5 739 11 192 11 200 11 011 13 155Real net value of farm production c $m 5 977 5 739 11 192 11 200 11 011 13 155N t f h i d $ 5 865 9 997 15 410 15 787 15 973 18 486Net farm cash income d $m 5 865 9 997 15 410 15 787 15 973 18 486Real net farm cash income c $m 6 617 11 023 16 478 16 501 16 325 18 486Real net farm cash income c $

a Based on estimated movements in capital expenditure and prices of capital inputs. b Gross value of farm production less total farm costs. c In 2013–14 Australian dollars. d Gross farm cash income less total cash costs. f ABARES forecast.Note: Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES (compiled from various market sources); Australian Bureau of Statistics







Exports

FIGURE 5 Contribution to exports by sector, balance of payments basis Australia

2010–11

2011–12

2008–09

2009–10

Othermerchandise

17%

Rural a15%

Mineralresources

68%

Othermerchandise

15%

Rural a14%

Mineralresources

71%

Mineralresources

71%

Rural a15%

Othermerchandise

14%

Services16%

Rural a12%

Othermerchandise

12%

Mineralresources60%

Services 17%

Rural a12%

Othermerchandise

13%

Mineralresources58%

Services20%

Rural a12%

Othermerchandise

15%

Mineralresources53%

Services18%

Rural a12%

Othermerchandise

14%

Mineralresources56%

Othermerchandise

18%

Rural a15%

Mineralresources

67%

Proportion ofmerchandise exports

Proportion of exportsof goods and services

a ABARES rural balance of payments adjusted to include farm, �sheries and forestry products classi�ed as other merchandise by ABS.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

2012–13

Mineralresources

69%

Rural a16%

Othermerchandise

15%

Services17%

Rural a14%

Othermerchandise

12%

Mineralresources57%


Sectors

TABLE 5 Industry gross value added a, b Australia

STATISTICS

5 d l dd d5Industrygrossvalueaddeda,bAustralia5Industrygrossvalueaddeda,bAustraliaunit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13unit 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13

Agriculture, forestry and fishingagriculture $m 23 328 27 914 27 640 28 847 29 047 27 917

Agriculture, forestry and fishing agriculture $m 23 328 27 914 27 640 28 847 29 047 27 917f t d fi hi $ 4 248 4 555 4 534 4 547 4 678 4 301 forestry and fishing $m 4 248 4 555 4 534 4 547 4 678 4 301y g

total $m 27 635 32 485 32 191 33 392 33 724 32 218 total $

Mining $m 110 115 113 591 122 411 124 849 134 120 149 170Mining $m 110 115 113 591 122 411 124 849 134 120 149 170Manufacturingf d b d l h l $

Manufacturing food, beverage and alcohol $m 24 369 23 536 24 273 24 276 24 482 24 382, g textile, clothing, footwear textile, clothing, footwear

and leather $m 7 859 7 134 5 834 5 628 5 391 5 251 and leather $m 7 859 7 134 5 834 5 628 5 391 5 251wood and paper products $m 7 728 7 109 7 291 6 864 6 299 6 476 wood and paper products $m 7 728 7 109 7 291 6 864 6 299 6 476i ti bli hi printing, publishing

and recorded media $m 5 565 4 645 4 274 4 267 3 812 4 158$ petroleum, coal, chemical products $m 20 376 18 269 18 973 18 979 19 481 19 231 petroleum, coal, chemical products $m 20 376 18 269 18 973 18 979 19 481 19 231non‐metallic mineral products $m 6 158 6 154 6 058 5 953 5 587 5 507 non‐metallic mineral products $m 6 158 6 154 6 058 5 953 5 587 5 507metal products $m 18 456 18 165 17 388 18 181 18 185 16 947 metal products $m 18 456 18 165 17 388 18 181 18 185 16 947ma hiner and eq ipment $ 20 791 19 933 21 183 20 760 21 655 21 760 machinery and equipment $m 20 791 19 933 21 183 20 760 21 655 21 760

l $ total $m 110 423 104 605 105 058 104 885 104 892 103 713Building and construction $m 96 553 100 375 100 889 103 663 114 785 115 390Building and construction $m 96 553 100 375 100 889 103 663 114 785 115 390Electricity, gas and water supply $m 35 156 36 604 36 970 37 985 38 008 37 640Electricity, gas and water supply $m 35 156 36 604 36 970 37 985 38 008 37 640Taxes less subsidies on products $m 90 718 89 814 89 365 91 686 93 426 94 202Taxes less subsidies on products $m 90 718 89 814 89 365 91 686 93 426 94 202St ti ti l di $ 0 0 0 0 1 1 125Statistical discrepancy $m 0 0 0 0 1 1 125

Gross domestic product $m 1 352 242 1 375 809 1 402 813 1 434 227 1 486 072 1 525 494Gross domestic product $m 1 352 242 1 375 809 1 402 813 1 434 227 1 486 072 1 525 494

a Chain volume measures, reference year is 2011–12. b ANZSIC 2006. Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, cat. no. 5206.0, Canberra





TABLE 4 Volume of production indexes Australia

STATISTICS

4 Volume of production indexes Australia4VolumeofproductionindexesAustraliaunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

Farmd l d

FarmGrains and oilseeds index 116.1 116.6 139.9 158.7 136.5 146.5Total crops index 113.2 114.4 126.2 138.2 129.3 134.3Total crops index 113.2 114.4 126.2 138.2 129.3 134.3

Livestock slaughterings index 111 5 109 4 110 5 109 6 115 5 119 2Livestock slaughterings index 111.5 109.4 110.5 109.6 115.5 119.2T l li k i dTotal livestock index 100.6 98.7 100.6 100.5 104.5 106.2Total farm sector index 107.9 107.5 114.2 119.9 117.5 120.9Total farm sector index 107.9 107.5 114.2 119.9 117.5 120.9

F td d

Forestry aHardwood index 120.8 107.8 112.1 94.2 80.8 95.8Softwood index 117.5 127.4 132.2 123.8 119.0 127.9Softwood index 117.5 127.4 132.2 123.8 119.0 127.9Total forestry index 119 5 118 5 123 1 110 1 101 2 113 0Total forestry index 119.5 118.5 123.1 110.1 101.2 113.0a Volume of logs harvested excluding firewood. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Note: ABARE revised the method for calculating production indexes in October 1999. The indexes for the different groups of commodities are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

a Volume of logs harvested excluding firewood. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Note: ABARE revised the method for calculating production indexes in October 1999. The indexes for the different groups of commodities are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics







Employment, banks

TABLE 6 Employment a, b Australia

STATISTICS

6 Employment Australia a b Australia6 Employment Australia a, b Australia 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 132007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000l f d f hAgriculture, forestry and fishing

agriculture 303 322 324 305 289 278g , y gagriculture 303 322 324 305 289 278forestry and logging 8 8 7 6 8 7forestry and logging 8 8 7 6 8 7

i l fi hi 14 9 11 12 11 10commercial fishing c 14 9 11 12 11 10support services 30 24 26 27 27 27support servicestotal 355 363 369 350 335 321total 355 363 369 350 335 321

Mining 146 170 173 204 249 266Mining 146 170 173 204 249 266Manufacturing

food beverages and tobacco 230 227 228 228 227 225Manufacturing

food, beverages and tobacco 230 227 228 228 227 225textiles clothing footweartextiles, clothing, footwear

d l th 50 48 46 44 39 40 and leather 50 48 46 44 39 40wood and paper product 70 68 64 56 55 54wood and paper productprinting, publishingprinting, publishingand recorded media 54 51 52 55 42 48 and recorded media 54 51 52 55 42 48

petroleum coalpetroleum, coald h i l d t 98 90 88 84 88 90 and chemical product 98 90 88 84 88 90p

non‐metallic mineral product 42 40 37 37 38 35non metallic mineral productmetal product 159 157 146 147 146 131metal product 159 157 146 147 146 131other manufacturing 360 348 343 334 319 331other manufacturing 360 348 343 334 319 331total 1 063 1 029 1 004 986 955 954total 1 063 1 029 1 004 986 955 954

Oth i d t i 9 144 9 338 9 459 9 750 9 881 10 022Other industries 9 144 9 338 9 459 9 750 9 881 10 022

Total 10 708 10 899 11 003 11 290 11 419 11 563Total 10 708 10 899 11 003 11 290 11 419 11 563

a Average employment over four quarters. b ANZSIC 2006. Caution should be used when using employment statistics at the ANZSIC subdivision and group levels due to estimates that may be subject to sampling variability and standard errors too high for most practical purposes. c Includes aquaculture, fishing, hunting and trapping.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force, Australia, cat. no. 6291.0.55.003, Canberra







TABLE 7 All banks lending to business a Australia

2010–11 2011–12 2012–132010 11Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun

2011 12 2012 13Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun $b $b $b $b $b $b $b $b$b $b $b $b $b $b $b $b

A i l fAgriculture, forestry and fishing 60.3 60.1 60.4 62.4 60.5 59.2 58.6 60.7g , y

and fishing 60.3 60.1 60.4 62.4 60.5 59.2 58.6 60.7Mining 13 5 14 3 15 3 17 0 18 9 18 2 18 9 21 0Mining 13.5 14.3 15.3 17.0 18.9 18.2 18.9 21.0Manufacturing 41 0 40 8 43 7 42 5 41 0 39 8 39 7 39 6Manufacturing 41.0 40.8 43.7 42.5 41.0 39.8 39.7 39.6C t ti 29 3 28 8 29 2 30 3 29 1 27 8 28 0 27 5Construction 29.3 28.8 29.2 30.3 29.1 27.8 28.0 27.5Wholesale and retail trade,transport and storage 95.4 97.3 99.5 101.7 100.6 103.2 103.0 103.0

Wholesale and retail trade, transport and storage 95.4 97.3 99.5 101.7 100.6 103.2 103.0 103.0Finance and insurance 93 4 96 5 99 2 100 8 102 7 102 9 104 1 107 2Finance and insurance 93.4 96.5 99.2 100.8 102.7 102.9 104.1 107.2Oth 315 4 320 6 321 6 329 3 342 6 342 6 345 2 351 3Other 315.4 320.6 321.6 329.3 342.6 342.6 345.2 351.3

Total 648.4 658.4 668.9 683.9 695.5 693.8 697.5 710.4Total 648.4 658.4 668.9 683.9 695.5 693.8 697.5 710.4

a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Lending to Business – Selected Statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Lending to Business – Selected Statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Lending to Business – Selected Statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Lending to Business – Selected Statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Lending to Business – Selected Statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8


Farm debt, world prices

TABLE 8 Rural indebtedness to financial institutions a Australia

STATISTICS

8 Rural indebtedness to financial institutions Australia8RuralindebtednesstofinancialinstitutionsAustralia2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–132007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mR l d btRural debtAll banks a 53 743 57 384 58 097 60 184 59 749 60 657All banks aOther government agencies b 1 409 1 615 1 811 1 871 2 076 2 236Other government agencies b 1 409 1 615 1 811 1 871 2 076 2 236Pastoral and other

fi i 5 126 4 462 2 029 2 010 1 801 1 410Pastoral and other

finance companies 5 126 4 462 2 029 2 010 1 801 1 410Large finance institutional debt c 60 278 63 461 61 937 64 065 63 626 64 303Large finance institutional debt cDepositsF d iDepositsFarm management deposits 2 879 2 843 2 784 3 216 3 532 3 721g pa Derived from all banks lending to agriculture, fishing and forestry. b Includes the government agency business of state banks and advances made under War Service Land Settlement. Before 1996 includes loans from the Queensland Industry Development Corporation. From 1996 these loans are included in bank lending. c Sum of the above. Sources: ABARES; Department of Agriculture; Reserve Bank of Australia, Estimated Rural Debt to Specified Lenders, Bulletin Statistical Table D9

a Derived from all banks lending to agriculture, fishing and forestry. b Includes the government agency business of state banks and advances made under War Service Land Settlement. Before 1996 includes loans from the Queensland Industry Development Corporation. From 1996 these loans are included in bank lending. c Sum of the above. Sources: ABARES; Department of Agriculture; Reserve Bank of Australia, Estimated Rural Debt to Specified Lenders, Bulletin Statistical Table D9






TABLE 9 Annual world indicator prices of selected commodities

STATISTICS

9 Annual world indicator prices of selected commodities9Annualworldindicatorpricesofselectedcommoditiesunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 f

WorldWorldCCropsWheat a US$/t 271 209 317 299 348 315

pWheat a US$/t 271 209 317 299 348 315Corn b US$/t 190 160 255 281 312 220Corn b US$/t 190 160 255 281 312 220Rice c US$/t 609 557 518 590 565 456Rice c US$/t 609 557 518 590 565 456S b d US$/t 422 395 493 506 597 510Soybeans d US$/t 422 395 493 506 597 510Cotton e USc/lb 61.2 77.5 164.3 100.1 87.9 86.0Cotton e /Sugar g USc/lb 14.9 20.3 26.5 22.7 18.0 17.0Sugar g USc/lb 14.9 20.3 26.5 22.7 18.0 17.0

Li t k d tLivestock productsBeef h USc/kg 307 319 391 433 439 445Beef h USc/kg 307 319 391 433 439 445Wool i Ac/kg 794 872 1 132 1 203 1 035 1 100Wool i Ac/kg 794 872 1 132 1 203 1 035 1 100Butter j US$/t 2 485 3 477 4 683 3 883 3 727 4 100Butter j US$/t 2 485 3 477 4 683 3 883 3 727 4 100Ch j US$/t 3 281 3 748 4 221 4 258 4 150 4 400Cheese j US$/t 3 281 3 748 4 221 4 258 4 150 4 400Skim milk powder j US$/t 2 333 2 948 3 392 3 233 3 731 4 290Skim milk powder j US$/t 2 333 2 948 3 392 3 233 3 731 4 290

a US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf. b US no. 2 corn, fob Gulf. c USDA nominal quote for Thai white rice, 100 per cent, Grade B, fob, Bangkok (August–July basis). d US fob Gulf. e Cotlook ‘A’ index. f ABARES forecast. g Nearby futures price (October–September basis), Intercontinental Exchange, New York no. 11 contract. h US cif price. i Australian Wool Exchange eastern market indicator. j Average of traded prices (excluding subsidised sales).Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Wool Exchange; Cotlook Ltd; Dairy Australia; Food and Agriculture Organization; General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade; Intercontinental Exchange; ISTA Mielke and Co; Meat & Livestock Australia; New York Board of Trade; Reuters Ltd; United States Department of Agriculture












Gross unit values

TABLE 10 Gross unit values of farm products a

STATISTICS

10 Gross unit values of farm products a10Grossunitvaluesoffarmproductsaunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

C bCrops bpGrains and oilseedsGrains and oilseedsWinter crops

barley $/t 231 172 216 210 268 230Winter crops

barley $/t 231 172 216 210 268 230canola $/t 548 440 544 513 549 491canola $/t 548 440 544 513 549 491fi ld $/ 345 241 266 295 406 365field peas $/t 345 241 266 295 406 365plupins $/t 280 269 268 232 340 306lupins $/t 280 269 268 232 340 306oats $/t 216 160 196 202 235 197oats $/t 216 160 196 202 235 197triticale $/t 257 220 184 176 244 209triticale $/t 257 220 184 176 244 209wheat $/t 281 218 257 227 313 331wheat $/t 281 218 257 227 313 331

SSummer cropscorn (maize) $/t 283 268 259 251 304 299corn (maize) $/rice $/t 566 457 240 270 276 281rice $/t 566 457 240 270 276 281grain sorghum $/t 205 196 213 189 240 237grain sorghum $/t 205 196 213 189 240 237so beans $/t 551 551 501 472 434 430soybeans c $/t 551 551 501 472 434 430

$/sunflower seed c $/t 696 696 567 551 545 534sunflower seed c /

Industrial cropsCotton lint d c/kg 193 205 377 225 199 215Industrial cropsCotton lint d c/kg 193 205 377 225 199 215S ( t f hi ) $/ 32 44 38 43 43 38Sugar cane (cut for crushing) $/t 32 44 38 43 43 38g ( g)Wine grapes $/t 527 464 413 458 499 509Wine grapes $/t 527 464 413 458 499 509

LivestockB f ttl /k 320 311 336 337 318 327

LivestockBeef cattle c/kg 320 311 336 337 318 327Lambs c/kg 415 444 519 509 364 445/ gPig c/kg 304 291 269 266 262 281Pig c/kg 304 291 269 266 262 281Poultry c/kg 215 209 205 202 212 213Poultry c/kg 215 209 205 202 212 213

Livestock productsW l /k 430 456 623 666 568 606

Livestock productsWool c/kg 430 456 623 666 568 606Milk c/L 42.5 37.4 43.2 42.1 40.1 47.7Milk c/ 5 3 3 0

a Average gross unit value across all grades in principal markets, unless otherwise indicated. Includes the cost of containers,commission and other expenses incurred in getting the commodities to their principal markets. These expenses are significant.b Average unit gross value relates to returns received from crops harvested in that year, regardless of when sales take place, unless otherwise indicated. c Price paid by crusher. d Australian base price for sales in the financial year indicated.f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Note: Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics











World

TABLE 11 World production, consumption, stocks and trade for selected commodities a

STATISTICS

11 World production consumption stocks and trade for selected commodities a11Worldproduction,consumption,stocksandtradeforselectedcommoditiesaunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

FarmG iFarmGrainsWheat

production Mt 685 679 653 695 655 705Wheat

production Mt 685 679 653 695 655 705consumption Mt 645 653 657 696 673 694consumption Mt 645 653 657 696 673 694closing stocks Mt 172 199 194 194 175 186closing stocks Mt 172 199 194 194 175 186exports b Mt 137 128 126 145 141 148exports b

Coarse grainsproduction Mt 1 109 1 117 1 097 1 151 1 131 1 254

Coarse grainsproduction Mt 1 109 1 117 1 097 1 151 1 131 1 254

iconsumption Mt 1 077 1 106 1 128 1 134 1 140 1 217pclosing stocks Mt 194 198 166 165 165 202closing stocks Mt 194 198 166 165 165 202exports b Mt 113 123 116 147 118 135exports b Mt 113 123 116 147 118 135

Riced i

Riceproduction c Mt 448 440 449 465 469 471p Mt 448 440 449 465 469 471consumption c Mt 436 437 445 458 467 471consumption c Mt 436 437 445 458 467 471closing stocks c Mt 92 96 99 107 109 108closing stocks c Mt 92 96 99 107 109 108

t bdexports bd Mt 29 31 36 39 37 38

Oilseeds and vegetable oilsOilseeds and vegetable oilsOil dOilseeds

production Mt 399 447 460 445 470 498production Mt 399 447 460 445 470 498consumption Mt 403 424 447 465 464 485consumption Mt 403 424 447 465 464 485closing stocks Mt 59 76 85 65 72 85closing stocks Mt 59 76 85 65 72 85exports Mt 95 107 108 111 115 126e po s

Vegetable oilsproduction Mt 134 141 149 157 159 168

Vegetable oilsproduction Mt 134 141 149 157 159 168

i M 131 140 146 153 156 165consumption Mt 131 140 146 153 156 165pclosing stocks Mt 13 14 15 17 19 22closing stocks Mt 13 14 15 17 19 22exports Mt 56 57 60 63 66 68exports Mt 56 57 60 63 66 68

Vegetable protein mealsVegetable protein mealsproduction Mt 224 240 253 263 263 275productionconsumption Mt 224 234 247 258 263 274consumption Mt 224 234 247 258 263 274closing stocks Mt 6 8 10 12 13 14closing stocks Mt 6 8 10 12 13 14exports Mt 66 70 75 78 76 79p

Industrial cropsC ttIndustrial cropsCotton

production Mt 23 22 25 27 26 26production Mt 23 22 25 27 26 26consumption Mt 23 26 25 22 23 24consumption Mt 23 26 25 22 23 24closing stocks Mt 13 10 11 16 19 21closing stocks Mt 13 10 11 16 19 21exports Mt 7 8 8 10 10 9p

Sugarproduction Mt 149 159 165 174 184 182

Sugarproduction Mt 149 159 165 174 184 182

ti M 162 163 164 168 173 177consumption Mt 162 163 164 168 173 177pclosing stocks Mt 61 57 58 64 75 80closing stocks Mt 61 57 58 64 75 80exports Mt 48 55 55 54 56 58exports Mt 48 55 55 54 56 58

continuedcontinued...


World

TABLE 11 World production, consumption, stocks and trade for selected commodities a continued

STATISTICS

11 World production consumption stocks and trade for selected commodities a co11Worldproduction,consumption,stocksandtradeforselectedcommoditiesacounit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

Livestock productsLivestock products Meat deg

production Mt 250 258 260 265 270 274Meat deg

production Mt 250 258 260 265 270 274consumption Mt 247 255 256 261 266 270consumption Mt 247 255 256 261 266 270closing stocks Mt 2 4 2 3 2 3 2 6 2 4 2 3closing stocks Mt 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.3

t bexports b Mt 23.1 24.4 26.3 27.3 28.1 29.0Wool h

production kt 1 104 1 126 1 117 1 110 1 111 1 129Wool h

production kt 1 104 1 126 1 117 1 110 1 111 1 129consumption di kt 1 105 1 125 1 130 1 110 1 105 1 127consumption di kt 1 105 1 125 1 130 1 110 1 105 1 127l i kclosing stocks j kt 65 55 45 24 25 35g j kt 65 55 45 24 25 35exports k kt 484 501 502 447 485 496exports k kt 484 501 502 447 485 496

B tter dButter dgproduction kt 8 039 8 181 8 584 8 919 9 133 9 250productionconsumption kt 7 549 7 828 8 094 8 399 8 651 8 750consumption kt 7 549 7 828 8 094 8 399 8 651 8 750closing stocks kt 257 176 216 259 253 240closing stocks kt 257 176 216 259 253 240

k 8 3 36 2 3 93 820exports kt 813 736 724 773 793 820pSkim milk powder dgl

production kt 3 452 3 415 3 675 3 979 3 994 4 160Skim milk powder dgl

production kt 3 452 3 415 3 675 3 979 3 994 4 160consumption kt 2 920 3 000 3 190 3 439 3 449 3 610consumption kt 2 920 3 000 3 190 3 439 3 449 3 610closing stocks kclosing stocks kt 556 496 449 461 425 400exports kt 1 140 1 344 1 528 1 596 1 636 1 710exports kt 1 140 1 344 1 528 1 596 1 636 1 710

a Some figures are not based on precise or complete analyses. b Excludes intra‐EU trade. cMilled equivalent. d On a calendar year basis, e.g. 1991–92 = 1992. e Beef and veal, mutton, lamb, goat, pig and poultry meat. f ABARES forecast. g Selected countries. h Clean equivalent. i Virgin wool at the spinning stage in 65 countries. j Held by marketing bodies and on‐farm in five major exporting countries. k Five major exporting countries. l Non‐fat dry milk. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Argentine Wool Federation; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Capewools South Africa; Commodities Research Unit; Commonwealth Secretariat; Department of Agriculture; Economic Commission for Europe; Fearnleys; Food and Agriculture Organization; International Grains Council; International Sugar Organization; ISTA Mielke and Co; Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (Japan); New Zealand Wool Board; United States Department of Agriculture; Uruguayan Association of Wool Exporters














Australian production

TABLE 12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production Australia

STATISTICS

unit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

barley kt 7 997 7 865 7 995 8 221 7 466 8 620canola kt 1 844 1 907 2 359 3 427 4 010 3 410chickpeas kt 443 487 513 673 813 629field peas kt 238 356 395 342 320 363lupins kt 708 823 808 982 459 581oats kt 1 160 1 162 1 128 1 262 1 115 1 249triticale kt 363 545 355 285 429 400wheat kt 21 420 21 834 27 410 29 905 22 461 26 213

cottonseed kt 466 547 1 269 1 694 1 417 1 379corn (maize) kt 376 328 357 451 496 335rice kt 61 197 723 919 1 166 907grain sorghum kt 2 692 1 508 1 935 2 239 2 005 1 608soybeans kt 80 60 30 86 92 63sunflower seed kt 55 41 43 47 44 32other oilseeds a kt 34 40 33 35 39 34

Total grains and oilseeds kt 37 935 37 699 45 352 50 567 42 332 45 823

Cotton lint kt 329 387 926 1 198 1 002 975Sugar cane (cut for crushing) kt 31 457 31 235 27 443 27 943 30 400 30 500Sugar (tonnes actual) kt 4 634 4 472 3 610 3 683 4 300 4 200Wine grapes kt 1 684 1 533 1 598 1 582 1 695 1 725

apples kt 295 264 300 289 295 300bananas kt 270 302 203 286 312 318oranges kt 348 391 291 390 360 380

carrots kt 264 267 225 319 319 322onions kt 284 260 331 347 310 300potatoes kt 1 179 1 278 1 128 1 288 1 290 1 292tomatoes kt 440 472 302 372 400 418

Cattle and calves ’000 8 583 8 364 8 097 7 873 8 457 8 930Lambs ’000 20 395 19 478 17 880 18 879 21 122 20 900Sheep ’000 10 501 7 333 5 341 5 175 8 192 8 940Pigs ’000 4 476 4 561 4 643 4 733 4 745 4 830

Cattle exported live b ’000 845 871 728 579 513 650Sheep exported live c ’000 4 067 3 060 2 916 2 562 2 000 2 000

Beef and veal d kt 2 125 2 109 2 133 2 115 2 245 2 315Lamb d kt 416 413 391 419 457 452Mutton d kt 220 162 123 120 183 200Pig meat kt 321 331 342 351 356 362Chicken meat d kt 832 834 1 015 1 030 1 046 1 080Total kt 3 914 3 849 4 005 4 034 4 287 4 409

continued...

Slaughterings

Live exports

Meat produced

Winter crops

Summer crops

Fruit

Vegetables

12Agricultural,fisheriesandforestrycommodityproductionAustraliaCropsGrains and oilseeds

Industrial crops

Horticulture

Livestock


Australian production

TABLE 12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production Australia continued

STATISTICS

12 Agricultural fisheries and forestry commodity production Australia continued12Agricultural,fisheriesandforestrycommodityproductionAustraliacontinuedunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

Livestock productsW lLivestock products Wool e kt 420 423 429 411 435 420Milk g ML 9 388 9 023 9 100 9 480 9 200 9 130Milk g ML 9 388 9 023 9 100 9 480 9 200 9 130Butter h kt 148 128 122 120 118 117Butter h kt 148 128 122 120 118 117Cheese kt 343 350 339 347 338 336Cheese kt 343 350 339 347 338 336Casein k 10 8 5 5 5 4Casein kt 10 8 5 5 5 4Ski ilk d iSkim milk powder i kt 212 190 222 230 224 223pWhole milk powder kt 148 126 151 140 109 108Whole milk powder kt 148 126 151 140 109 108Buttermilk powder kt 15 13 12 11 11 10Buttermilk powder kt 15 13 12 11 11 10

Forestry products jHardwood ’000 m3 12 485 11 144 11 585 9 733 8 352 9 899Forestry products jHardwood ’000 m3 12 485 11 144 11 585 9 733 8 352 9 899Softwood ’000 3 13 314 14 433 14 981 14 026 13 487 14 499Softwood ’000 m3 13 314 14 433 14 981 14 026 13 487 14 499Total 3 25 799 25 577 26 567 23 759 21 838 24 398Total ’000 m3 25 799 25 577 26 567 23 759 21 838 24 398

Fisheries kTuna kt 13 7 11 0 9 1 10 1 10 5 11 3Fisheries k Tuna kt 13.7 11.0 9.1 10.1 10.5 11.3Salmonids l kt 30 0 32 0 36 8 44 0 44 8 46 6Salmonids l kt 30.0 32.0 36.8 44.0 44.8 46.6Oth fi hOther fish kt 115.7 120.7 112.0 112.6 113.7 112.8Prawns kt 24.2 27.3 27.0 22.5 24.0 24.7kt 24.2 27.3 27.0 22.5 24.0 24.7Rocklobster m kt 12.2 10.1 9.9 8.7 9.4 9.3Rocklobster m kt 12.2 10.1 9.9 8.7 9.4 9.3Abalone kt 5 6 5 0 5 2 5 0 4 9 5 0Abalone kt 5.6 5.0 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0Scallops kt 7 6 7 6 6 2 2 3 2 9 3 5Scallops kt 7.6 7.6 6.2 2.3 2.9 3.5O tOysters kt 14.2 14.9 13.9 15.7 15.1 15.6h llOther molluscs kt 6.6 6.4 6.6 7.5 6.5 6.6kt 6.6 6.4 6.6 7.5 6.5 6.6

Other crustaceans kt 5.8 5.7 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.1Other crustaceans kt 5.8 5.7 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.1

a Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Excludes animals exported for breeding purposes. c Includes animals for breeding. d In carcass weight and includes carcass equivalent of canned meats. e Greasy equivalent of shorn wool (includes crutching), dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins. f ABARES forecast. g Includes the whole milk equivalent of farm cream intake.h Includes the butter equivalent of butteroil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. i Includes mixed skim and buttermilk powder. j Excludes logs harvested for firewood. k Liveweight. l Includes salmon and trout production.m Includes Queensland bugs. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Fisheries Management Authority; Dairy Australia; Department of Fisheries, Western Australia; Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Tasmania; Fisheries Queensland,Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation; Fisheries Victoria, Department of Primary Industries; Industry & Investment New South Wales; Northern Territory Department of Regional Development, Primary Industry, Fisheries andResources; Primary Industries and Resources, South Australia; Raw Cotton Marketing Advisory Committee; South Australian Research and Development Institute; state and territory forest services; various Australian forestry industries


















Value of production

TABLE 13 Gross value of farm, fisheries and forestry production Australia

STATISTICS

2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f$m $m $m $m $m $m

barley 1 850 1 356 1 729 1 723 1 998 1 978canola 1 011 840 1 283 1 759 2 201 1 675chickpeas 199 216 207 308 320 210field peas 82 86 105 101 130 133lupins 198 222 216 228 156 178oats 251 186 221 255 263 246triticale 93 120 65 50 105 84wheat 6 021 4 765 7 052 6 775 7 021 8 667

corn (maize) 106 88 92 113 151 100rice 34 90 174 248 321 255grain sorghum 553 296 412 423 481 381soybeans 44 33 15 41 40 27sunflower seed 38 29 24 26 24 17other oilseeds a 28 37 30 33 37 31

Total grains and oilseeds 10 778 8 663 12 138 12 485 13 695 14 420

Cotton lint and cottonseed b 693 828 2 087 2 889 2 138 2 113Sugar cane (cut for crushing) 1 021 1 382 1 036 1 214 1 321 1 169Wine grapes 887 709 712 725 846 878Total industrial crops 2 601 2 919 3 834 4 827 4 304 4 161

Table and dried grapes 286 273 308 308 307 296Fruit and nuts (excl. grapes) 2 871 2 950 3 013 3 050 3 273 3 450Vegetables 3 012 3 023 3 338 3 339 3 600 3 710Other horticulture 1 556 1 649 1 606 1 272 1 414 1 549Total horticulture 7 725 7 895 8 265 7 968 8 594 9 005Other crops nei c 1 665 1 660 1 706 1 550 1 185 1 205

Total crops 22 769 21 137 25 943 26 830 27 778 28 790continued...

13Grossvalueoffarm,fisheriesandforestryproductionAustralia

CropsGrains and oilseeds

Industrial crops

Horticulture

Winter crops

Summer crops


Value of production

TABLE 13 Gross value of farm, fisheries and forestry production Australia continued

2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f$m $m $m $m $m $m

Cattle and calves d 6 806 6 567 7 164 7 134 7 136 7 567Sheep e 428 499 484 419 323 460Lambs eg 1 725 1 832 2 029 2 136 1 665 2 011

13GrossvalueoffarmandfisheriesproductionAustraliacontinued

LivestockSlaughterings

Lambs eg 1 725 1 832 2 029 2 136 1 665 2 011Pigs 976 965 919 934 934 1 016Poultry 1 862 1 785 2 077 2 078 2 214 2 300

Cattle exported live h 646 701 660 651 589 700Sheep exported live h 340 298 348 345 194 215Total livestock i 12 834 12 722 13 795 13 836 13 214 14 444

Wool j 1 806 1 928 2 673 2 734 2 472 2 545

Live exports

Livestock products

Milk k 3 988 3 371 3 932 3 986 3 687 4 355Eggs 447 428 572 583 653 670Honey and beeswax 86 80 66 79 88 92

Total livestock products 6 326 5 807 7 243 7 383 6 900 7 662

Total farm 41 929 39 666 46 981 48 049 47 892 50 896

Hardwood 936 852 892 762 660 773Softwood 823 923 959 885 848 918Total 1 759 1 776 1 851 1 647 1 508 1 691

Forestry products l

Total 1 759 1 776 1 851 1 647 1 508 1 691

Tuna 187 125 139 172 175 159Salmonids n 326 369 427 513 524 538Other fish o 463 464 428 456 450 441Prawns 290 325 306 266 309 310Rocklobster q 415 381 390 384 424 450Abalone 189 173 178 170 176 185Scallops 26 23 22 8 9 11Oysters 93 101 97 107 107 112

Fisheries products m

Oysters 93 101 97 107 107 112Pearls r 90 105 120 102 93 104Other molluscs t 49 32 31 34 33 34Other crustaceans 66 65 65 78 72 72Total fish 2 214 2 191 2 241 2 316 2 401 2 445

a Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Value delivered to gin. cMainly fodder crops. d Includes dairy cattle slaughtered.e Excludes skin values. f ABARES forecast. g Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18–22 kg. h Includes animals exported for breeding purposes. i Total livestock slaughterings includes livestock disposals. j Shorn, dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins. kMilk intake by factories and valued at the farm gate. l Excludes logs harvested for firewood.m Value to fishers of product landed in Australia. n Includes salmon and trout production. o Includes an estimated value of aquaculture. q Includes Queensland bugs. r Includes Northern Territory aquaculture production from 2009–10.s ABARES estimate. t Also includes fish and aquaculture values not elsewhere included. nei not elsewhere included.Note: The gross value of production is the value placed on recorded production at the wholesale prices realised in the marketplace. The point of measurement can vary between commodities. Generally the marketplace is the metropolitan market in each state and territory. However, where commodities are consumed locally or where they become raw material for a secondary industry, these points are presumed to be the marketplace. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

a Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Value delivered to gin. cMainly fodder crops. d Includes dairy cattle slaughtered.e Excludes skin values. f ABARES forecast. g Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18–22 kg. h Includes animals exported for breeding purposes. i Total livestock slaughterings includes livestock disposals. j Shorn, dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins. kMilk intake by factories and valued at the farm gate. l Excludes logs harvested for firewood.m Value to fishers of product landed in Australia. n Includes salmon and trout production. o Includes an estimated value of aquaculture. q Includes Queensland bugs. r Includes Northern Territory aquaculture production from 2009–10.s ABARES estimate. t Also includes fish and aquaculture values not elsewhere included. nei not elsewhere included.Note: The gross value of production is the value placed on recorded production at the wholesale prices realised in the marketplace. The point of measurement can vary between commodities. Generally the marketplace is the metropolitan market in each state and territory. However, where commodities are consumed locally or where they become raw material for a secondary industry, these points are presumed to be the marketplace. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Areas, stock

TABLE 14 Crop areas and livestock numbers Australia

STATISTICS

14 Crop areas and livestock numbers Australia14CropareasandlivestocknumbersAustraliaunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

Crop areasCrop areasi d il dGrains and oilseeds

Winter cropsbarley ’000 ha 5 015 4 422 3 681 3 718 3 622 3 807

Winter cropsbarley 000 ha 5 015 4 422 3 681 3 718 3 622 3 807canola ’000 ha 1 693 1 695 2 078 2 461 3 203 2 538canola ’000 ha 1 693 1 695 2 078 2 461 3 203 2 538hi k ’000 h 338 429 653 456 574 507chickpeas ’000 ha 338 429 653 456 574 507f ldfield peas ’000 ha 300 285 318 249 281 249plupins ’000 ha 577 692 756 689 450 387lupins 000 ha 577 692 756 689 450 387oats ’000 ha 870 850 826 731 699 744oats 000 ha 870 850 826 731 699 744triticale ’000 ha 323 350 187 145 258 230triticale ’000 ha 323 350 187 145 258 230wheat ’000 ha 13 530 13 881 13 502 13 902 12 773 13 512wheat ’000 ha 13 530 13 881 13 502 13 902 12 773 13 512

SSummer cropscorn (maize) ’000 ha 65 59 62 70 81 58

pcorn (maize) 000 ha 65 59 62 70 81 58rice ’000 ha 7 19 76 103 114 101rice 000 ha 7 19 76 103 114 101grain sorghum ’000 ha 767 498 633 659 595 552grain sorghum ’000 ha 767 498 633 659 595 552soybeans ’000 ha 42 31 17 38 41 31soybeans ’000 ha 42 31 17 38 41 31

fl d ’000 h 52 27 37 40 30 27sunflower seed ’000 ha 52 27 37 40 30 27other oilseeds a ’000 ha 20 16 19 18 17 17other oilseeds a

Total grains and oilseeds ’000 ha 24 095 23 787 23 946 24 295 23 625 23 591Total grains and oilseeds 000 ha 24 095 23 787 23 946 24 295 23 625 23 591

Industrial cropsC tt ’ hIndustrial cropsCotton ’000 ha 164 208 590 600 442 413Sugar cane b ’000 ha 387 369 314 368 371 382g 000 ha 387 369 314 368 371 382Winegrapes e ’000 ha 157 152 154 145 146 147Winegrapes e 000 ha 157 152 154 145 146 147

Livestock numbers cCattleLivestock numbers c

beef million 25 29 24 01 25 94 25 69 25 47 25 00Cattle

beef million 25.29 24.01 25.94 25.69 25.47 25.00dairy million 2 61 2 54 2 57 2 73 2 88 2 89dairy million 2.61 2.54 2.57 2.73 2.88 2.89milking herd d illi 1 68 1 60 1 59 1 70 1 71 1 71 milking herd d million 1.68 1.60 1.59 1.70 1.71 1.71

t t ltotal million 27.91 26.55 28.51 28.42 28.35 27.89Sheep million 72.7 68.1 73.1 74.7 73.8 71.9p million 72.7 68.1 73.1 74.7 73.8 71.9Pigs million 2 30 2 29 2 29 2 14 1 99 2 05Pigs million 2.30 2.29 2.29 2.14 1.99 2.05

a Linseed and safflower seed. b Cut for crushing. c At 30 June. d Cows in milk and dry. e This figure is for grapes for wine only. Prior to 2008–09 this figure includes grapes used for winemaking and other purposes such as drying and table.f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics








Yields

TABLE 15 Average farm yields Australia

STATISTICS

15 Average farm yields Australia15AveragefarmyieldsAustraliaunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f

CropsCropsG i d il dGrains and oilseedsWinter crops

barley t/ha 1.59 1.78 2.17 2.21 2.06 2.26Winter crops

barley t/ha 1.59 1.78 2.17 2.21 2.06 2.26canola t/ha 1 09 1 13 1 14 1 39 1 25 1 34canola t/ha 1.09 1.13 1.14 1.39 1.25 1.34chickpeas t/ha 1 31 1 14 0 79 1 48 1 42 1 24chickpeas t/ha 1.31 1.14 0.79 1.48 1.42 1.24fi ld /hfield peas t/ha 0.79 1.25 1.24 1.38 1.14 1.46plupins t/ha 1.23 1.19 1.07 1.42 1.02 1.50lupins t/ha 1.23 1.19 1.07 1.42 1.02 1.50oats t/ha 1.33 1.37 1.37 1.73 1.60 1.68oats t/ha 1.33 1.37 1.37 1.73 1.60 1.68triticale t/ha 1 12 1 56 1 90 1 97 1 66 1 74triticale t/ha 1.12 1.56 1.90 1.97 1.66 1.74wheat t/ha 1 58 1 57 2 03 2 15 1 76 1 94wheat t/ha 1.58 1.57 2.03 2.15 1.76 1.94

SSummer cropscorn (maize) t/ha 5.82 5.56 5.74 6.47 6.13 5.78corn (maize) /rice t/ha 8.46 10.39 9.54 8.91 10.24 8.98rice t/ha 8.46 10.39 9.54 8.91 10.24 8.98grain sorghum t/ha 3 51 3 03 3 06 3 40 3 37 2 91grain sorghum t/ha 3.51 3.03 3.06 3.40 3.37 2.91soybeans t/ha 1 89 1 90 1 71 2 26 2 23 2 03soybeans t/ha 1.89 1.90 1.71 2.26 2.23 2.03

fl d t/h 1 07 1 54 1 14 1 17 1 46 1 18sunflower seed t/ha 1.07 1.54 1.14 1.17 1.46 1.18

Industrial cropsCotton (lint) t/ha 2 01 1 86 1 57 2 00 2 27 2 36Industrial cropsCotton (lint) t/ha 2.01 1.86 1.57 2.00 2.27 2.36Sugar cane (for crushing) t/ha 81 85 87 76 82 80Sugar cane (for crushing) t/ha 81 85 87 76 82 80Wi /h 10 10 1 10 4 10 9 11 6 11Winegrapes t/ha 10.7 10.1 10.4 10.9 11.6 11.7g pLivestockWool a kg/sheep 4 29 4 26 4 34 4 19 4 41 4 26LivestockWool a kg/sheep 4.29 4.26 4.34 4.19 4.41 4.26Wh l ilk L/ 5 602 5 653 5 727 5 577 5 389 5 339Whole milk L/cow 5 602 5 653 5 727 5 577 5 389 5 339a Shorn (including lambs). f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Shorn (including lambs). f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Shorn (including lambs). f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Shorn (including lambs). f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Export volumes

TABLE 16 Volume of agricultural and fisheries exports a Australia

STATISTICS

unit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 f

barley b kt 3 898 4 234 4 625 6 568 5 165 5 947canola kt 973 1 238 1 471 2 323 3 488 2 621chickpeas kt 467 459 409 653 853 520lupins kt 157 377 289 316 453 134oats (unprepared) kt 196 216 127 163 156 146peas c kt 118 163 254 248 208 217wheat d kt 13 410 13 725 18 431 23 026 21 265 18 579

cottonseed kt 37 106 268 654 754 600corn (maize) kt 69 15 12 68 134 76rice kt 106 54 174 538 638 588grain sorghum kt 1 368 487 553 1 112 1 291 863other oilseeds e kt 10 13 7 6 10 15

Total grains and oilseeds kt 20 809 21 088 26 620 35 674 34 414 30 307

Raw cotton g kt 260 395 505 994 1 306 987Sugar kt 3 268 3 506 2 735 2 572 2 996 2 958Wine ML 753 790 748 737 717 730

Beef and veal hi kt 968 899 937 948 1 014 1 085Live cattle j ’000 845 871 728 579 513 650Lamb h kt 156 157 157 174 201 199Live sheep k ’000 4 067 3 060 2 916 2 562 2 000 2 000Mutton h kt 146 111 86 89 144 158Pig meat h kt 32 30 31 29 26 28Poultry meat h kt 37 28 31 38 32 38

Greasy ls kt 314 308 335 301 316 308Semi‐processed kt (gr eq) 62 49 44 37 34 33Skins kt (gr eq) 70 71 65 67 87 89Total ks kt (gr eq) 445 428 444 405 438 430

Butter m kt 70 74 56 49 54 53Cheese kt 146 168 163 161 174 173Casein kt 8 10 5 4 4 4Skim milk powder kt 162 126 155 141 147 146Whole milk powder kt 116 91 108 102 87 86

continued...

Dairy products

Winter crops

Summer crops

16VolumeofagriculturalandfisheriesexportsAustraliaaFarmGrains and oilseeds

Industrial crops

Meat and live animals

Wool


Export volumes

TABLE 16 Volume of agricultural and fisheries exports a Australia continued

STATISTICS

16 Volume of agricultural and fisheries exports Australia a continued16VolumeofagriculturalandfisheriesexportsAustraliaacontinuedunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 f

Fi h i d tFisheries productsTuna kt 11.5 9.5 7.8 8.9 8.9 9.7Tuna kt 11.5 9.5 7.8 8.9 8.9 9.7Salmonids kt 6.6 4.0 6.4 5.8 2.6 4.4Salmonids kt 6.6 4.0 6.4 5.8 2.6 4.4Other fish kt 7 5 7 1 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 5Other fish kt 7.5 7.1 7.7 6.5 5.5 6.5P

F k 4 7 4 5 6 4 5 3 3 9 4 1Prawns n

Frozen kt 4.7 4.5 6.4 5.3 3.9 4.1Rocklobsteroc obs e

Fresh, chilled, frozenor cooked kt 9 6 7 7 7 0 6 9 7 8 7 9

Fresh, chilled, frozen or cooked kt 9.6 7.7 7.0 6.9 7.8 7.9

AbaloneLi f h hill d kt 1 9 1 8 1 7 1 6 1 4 1 5

AbaloneLive, fresh or chilled kt 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.5Frozen or cooked kt 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7Fro en or cookedPrepared or preserved kt 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8Prepared or preserved kt 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8

Scallops o kt 1 1 1 1 0 6 0 4 0 4 0 5Scallops o kt 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5

a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the volume of farm exports series back to 1988–89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Includes field peas and cowpeas. d Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. e Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflower seed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. f ABARES forecast. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h In shipped weight. Fresh, chilled or frozen. i Includes meat loaf. j Excludes breeding stock. k Includes breeding stock.l ABS recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas. m Includes ghee, dry butterfat, butter concentrate and butter oil, and dairy spreads, all expressed as butter. n Excludes volume of other prawn products. o Includes crumbed scallops. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Canberra; Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade; United Nations Comtrade database














Export values

TABLE 17 Value of agricultural and fisheries exports (fob) a Australia

STATISTICS

2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 f$m $m $m $m $m $m

barley b 1 321 1 093 1 295 1 875 1 626 1 710canola 595 583 866 1 344 2 094 1 437chickpeas 275 255 213 384 533 260lupins 61 115 89 86 160 57oats 64 53 37 47 54 39peas c 62 60 85 93 89 94wheat d 5 028 3 692 5 516 6 378 6 776 6 372

cottonseed 19 46 85 195 219 188corn (maize) 13 8 6 24 50 26rice 143 59 154 448 490 454grain sorghum 405 116 146 299 364 278other oilseeds e 27 24 14 10 13 18

Total grains and oilseeds 8 015 6 102 8 505 11 183 12 469 10 932

Raw cotton g 500 755 1 367 2 736 2 695 2 181Sugar 1 338 1 887 1 436 1 556 1 403 1 276Wine 2 493 2 188 2 009 1 910 1 867 1 950Total industrial crops 4 266 4 805 4 760 6 154 5 918 5 416

Fruit 683 585 456 505 634 580Tree nuts 233 212 211 240 348 420Vegetables 487 542 607 712 678 683Nursery 29 23 20 15 12 17Other horticulture h 280 274 293 258 224 287Total horticulture 1 712 1 637 1 588 1 729 1 896 1 987Other crops and crop products 2 368 2 346 2 461 2 517 2 740 2 979Total crops 16 361 14 890 17 313 21 583 23 023 21 315

Beef and veal 4 857 3 953 4 328 4 467 4 866 5 430Live cattle i 538 550 499 412 339 450Lamb 925 916 1 026 1 060 1 086 1 180Live sheep j 340 298 348 345 194 215Mutton 482 433 404 362 478 598Pig meat 124 109 106 100 81 84Poultry meat 43 36 38 45 43 51Total meat and live animals 7 309 6 294 6 749 6 791 7 087 8 007

Greasy k 1 729 1 773 2 371 2 448 2 261 2 337Semi‐processed 281 238 251 242 210 210Skins 312 291 426 433 399 414Total k 2 322 2 303 3 048 3 123 2 869 2 961

continued...

17Valueofagriculturalfisheriesandforestryexports(fob)Australiaa

Meat and live animals

Wool

Winter crops

Summer crops

FarmGrains and oilseeds

Industrial crops

Horticulture


Export values

TABLE 17 Value of agricultural and fisheries exports (fob) a Australia continued

STATISTICS

17 Value of agricultural fisheries and forestry exports Australia a continued17Valueofagricultural,fisheriesandforestryexportsAustraliaacontinued2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 f2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 f

$ $ $ $ $ $$m $m $m $m $m $mD i dDairy productsButter 232 211 252 201 180 218

y pButter 232 211 252 201 180 218Cheese 796 715 731 751 784 917Cheese 796 715 731 751 784 917Casein 107 88 53 48 46 53Casein 107 88 53 48 46 53Skim milk powder 553 352 504 474 467 590Skim milk powder 553 352 504 474 467 590Wh l ilk dWhole milk powder 475 296 402 378 312 414pOther dairy products 520 427 404 439 440 573Other dairy products 520 427 404 439 440 573Total 2 683 2 089 2 345 2 292 2 229 2 766Total 2 683 2 089 2 345 2 292 2 229 2 766Other livestock and livestock products 2 400 2 217 2 354 2 529 2 764 2 994Other livestock and livestock products 2 400 2 217 2 354 2 529 2 764 2 994

Total livestock exports 14 714 12 903 14 496 14 735 14 949 16 728pTotal farm exports 31 075 27 793 31 809 36 317 37 972 38 043Total farm exports 31 075 27 793 31 809 36 317 37 972 38 043

Fisheries productsFisheries productsTuna 177 118 131 163 163 146Tuna Salmonids 47 30 54 42 25 36Salmonids 47 30 54 42 25 36Other fish 109 110 101 85 70 85Other fish 109 110 101 85 70 85Prawns l

Frozen 81 60 77 65 51 60Prawns l

Frozen 81 60 77 65 51 60R kl bRocklobster

Fresh, chilled, frozen or cooked 462 399 368 387 447 482Fresh, chilled, frozen or cooked 462 399 368 387 447 482Abalone

Live fresh or chilled 88 100 88 81 79 92Abalone

Live, fresh or chilled 88 100 88 81 79 92Frozen or cooked 50 53 59 57 55 63Frozen or cooked 50 53 59 57 55 63P d d 70 63 65 59 52 59Prepared or preserved 70 63 65 59 52 59p p

Scallops m 33 30 15 15 11 13Scallops m 33 30 15 15 11 13Pearls 366 244 241 207 152 169Pearls 366 244 241 207 152 169Other fisheries products 44 39 48 65 69 43Other fisheries products 44 39 48 65 69 43T t l fi h i d t 1 529 1 246 1 248 1 227 1 175 1 248Total fisheries products 1 529 1 246 1 248 1 227 1 175 1 248a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988–89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Field peas and cowpeas. d Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. e Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflower seed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. f ABARES forecast. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products.i Excludes breeding stock. j Includes breeding stock. k On a balance of payments basis. ABS recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas. l Other prawn products included in other fisheries products. m Includes crumbed scallops.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Canberra; United Nations Comtrade database

a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988–89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Field peas and cowpeas. d Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. e Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflower seed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. f ABARES forecast. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products.i Excludes breeding stock. j Includes breeding stock. k On a balance of payments basis. ABS recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas. l Other prawn products included in other fisheries products. m Includes crumbed scallops.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Canberra; United Nations Comtrade database












Forest exports

TABLE 18 Volume of forest products exports Australia

STATISTICSSTATISTICS

1818 Volume of forestry product exports Australia18VolumeofforestryproductexportsAustraliaunit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13unit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

QuantityQuantityRoundwood ’000 m3 1 045 986 1 377 1 638 1 806 1 526Roundwood 000 mSawnwood a

Softwood roughsawn ’000 m3 258 283 322 265 198 207Sawnwood a

Softwood roughsawn ’000 m3 258 283 322 265 198 207S ft d d d 3 23 18 13 13 13 3Softwood dressed ’000 m3 23 18 13 13 13 3Hardwood roughsawn ’000 m3 40 40 37 39 26 20Hardwood roughsawn 000 m 40 40 37 39 26 20Hardwood dressed ’000 m3 17 14 16 30 15 7Hardwood dressed ’000 m3 17 14 16 30 15 7Total ’000 3 338 355 387 348 252 237Total ’000 m3 338 355 387 348 252 237

R il l 3 11 9 9 8 8 8Railway sleepers ’000 m3 11 9 9 8 8 8y p 000 mWood‐based panels

Veneers ’000 m3 35 86 90 119 106 52Wood based panels

Veneers ’000 m3 35 86 90 119 106 52Plywood ’000 3 15 53 24 7 18 36Plywood ’000 m3 15 53 24 7 18 36

l b d 3Particleboard ’000 m3 6 17 9 5 4 3000 mHardboard b ’000 m3 0 2 1 2 2 2Hardboard b 000 m 0 2 1 2 2 2Medium density fibreboard ’000 m3 204 181 130 115 79 52Medium density fibreboard ’000 m3 204 181 130 115 79 52S ftb d d th fib b d 3 14 8 2 5 5 1Softboard and other fibreboards ’000 m3 14 8 2 5 5 1Total ’000 m3 274 345 256 253 214 147Total 000 m

Paper and paperboardPaper and paperboardN i kNewsprint kt 5 2 6 19 30 72pPrinting and writing kt 119 112 146 84 132 139Printing and writing kt 119 112 146 84 132 139Household and sanitary kt 37 38 31 39 26 12Household and sanitary kt 37 38 31 39 26 12Packaging and industrial kt 630 617 708 887 933 906Packaging and industrial kt 630 617 708 887 933 906Total kt 790 769 890 1 029 1 121 1 127

Recovered paper kt 1 286 1 216 1 444 1 323 1 403 1 506Recovered paper kt 1 286 1 216 1 444 1 323 1 403 1 506Pulp kt 21 22 18 31 1 0Pulp kt 21 22 18 31 1 0W d hi dWoodchips cd kt 6 166 5 255 4 818 5 064 4 150 3 806p

a Excludes railway sleepers. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Includes particles. d Bone dry tonnes.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Excludes railway sleepers. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Includes particles. d Bone dry tonnes.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Excludes railway sleepers. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Includes particles. d Bone dry tonnes.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Excludes railway sleepers. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Includes particles. d Bone dry tonnes.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Excludes railway sleepers. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Includes particles. d Bone dry tonnes.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia


Forest exports

TABLE 19 Value of forest products exports (fob) Australia


19 l f f d (f b)19Valueofforestryproductsexports(fob)Australia19Valueofforestryproductsexports(fob)Australia2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–132007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mValueValueRoundwood 105 101 138 198 175 155RoundwoodSawnwood

Softwood roughsawn 63 70 76 67 55 61Sawnwood

Softwood roughsawn 63 70 76 67 55 61S ft d d d 11 9 7 5 3 2Softwoods dressed 11 9 7 5 3 2Hardwood roughsawn 38 37 33 34 23 20Hardwood roughsawn 38 37 33 34 23 20Hardwood dressed 8 9 10 10 7 6Hardwood dressed 8 9 10 10 7 6Total 120 125 125 115 88 90Total 120 125 125 115 88 90il lRailway sleepers 3 4 2 3 3 3y p

Miscellaneous forest products a 56 51 59 65 59 57Miscellaneous forest products a 56 51 59 65 59 57Wood‐based panels

Veneers 19 36 44 52 51 24Wood‐based panels

Veneers 19 36 44 52 51 24Plywood 9 4 3 2 2 4yParticleboard 4 7 3 2 1 1Particleboard 4 7 3 2 1 1Hardboard b 0 1 1 2 2 2Hardboard b 0 1 1 2 2 2M di d it fib b d 76 52 45 39 26 19Medium density fibreboard c 76 52 45 39 26 19ySoftboard and other fibreboards 2 1 1 1 1 0Softboard and other fibreboards 2 1 1 1 1 0Total 109 101 97 98 83 51Total 109 101 97 98 83 51

Paper and paperboardN i

Paper and paperboardNewsprint 3 2 6 13 15 36pPrinting and writing 133 128 143 88 120 117Printing and writing 133 128 143 88 120 117Household and sanitary 106 111 97 94 64 33Household and sanitary 106 111 97 94 64 33Packaging and industrial 395 364 404 552 518 526Packaging and industrial 395 364 404 552 518 526Total 635 606 649 747 717 712

Paper manufactures 103 106 102 112 134 134Paper manufactures 103 106 102 112 134 134Recovered paper 252 235 228 240 240 230Recovered paper 252 235 228 240 240 230P l 15 18 13 11 1 0Pulp 15 18 13 11 1 0Woodchips 1 072 997 856 884 729 611WoodchipsTotal 2 471 2 343 2 270 2 474 2 229 2 043Total 2 471 2 343 2 270 2 474 2 229 2 043a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Some categories of medium density fibreboard are confidential.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia

a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Some categories of medium density fibreboard are confidential.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia









Forest imports

TABLE 20 Volume of forest products imports Australia


20 l f f d20VolumeofforestryproductimportsAustralia20VolumeofforestryproductimportsAustraliaunit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13unit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

Quantityd d 3

QuantityRoundwood ’000 m3 0.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 1.1 1.3000 mSawnwood aSawnwood a

Softwood roughsawn ’000 m3 340 2 255 6 292 6 290 1 239 4 246 6Softwood roughsawn ’000 m3 340.2 255.6 292.6 290.1 239.4 246.6Softwood dressed ’ 3 321 2 278 8 367 3 468 2 469 7 442 7Softwood dressed ’000 m3 321.2 278.8 367.3 468.2 469.7 442.7Hardwood roughsawn ’000 m3 59.0 50.5 42.8 42.6 45.9 41.3g 000 mHardwood dressed ’000 m3 63.5 43.5 45.4 45.4 36.1 28.4Hardwood dressed 000 m 63.5 43.5 45.4 45.4 36.1 28.4Total ’000 m3 783 9 628 4 748 1 846 3 791 1 759 0Total ’000 m3 783.9 628.4 748.1 846.3 791.1 759.0

Wood‐based panelsVeneers ’000 m3 31 5 21 4 15 4 17 4 14 7 12 6

Wood based panelsVeneers ’000 m3 31.5 21.4 15.4 17.4 14.7 12.6Plywood ’000 3 236 6 199 1 227 7 277 6 292 8 278 0Plywood ’000 m3 236.6 199.1 227.7 277.6 292.8 278.0

l b d 3Particleboard ’000 m3 99.6 68.7 64.2 71.6 67.8 72.2000 mHardboard ’000 m3 32.1 23.5 33.0 48.5 69.1 59.8Hardboard 000 m 32.1 23.5 33.0 48.5 69.1 59.8Medium density fibreboard ’000 m3 68 8 88 3 69 9 58 0 95 2 79 6Medium density fibreboard ’000 m3 68.8 88.3 69.9 58.0 95.2 79.6S ftb d d th fib b d ’ 3 14 3 10 6 6 2 6 5 7 1 5 6Softboard and other fibreboards ’000 m3 14.3 10.6 6.2 6.5 7.1 5.6Total ’000 m3 482.8 411.7 416.4 479.6 546.6 507.8Total 000 m

Paper and paperboardN i k

Paper and paperboardNewsprint kt 227.6 197.6 190.6 221.5 121.1 84.7pPrinting and writing kt 1 235.3 1 122.1 1 167.4 1 237.0 1 173.9 1 154.7Printing and writing kt 1 235.3 1 122.1 1 167.4 1 237.0 1 173.9 1 154.7Household and sanitary kt 81 1 82 0 101 1 113 8 117 7 158 5Household and sanitary kt 81.1 82.0 101.1 113.8 117.7 158.5Packaging and industrial kt 303 1 254 0 285 3 313 8 333 1 385 4Packaging and industrial kt 303.1 254.0 285.3 313.8 333.1 385.4Total kt 1 847.1 1 655.7 1 744.4 1 886.1 1 745.8 1 783.3

Recovered paper kt 10 2 3 0 3 4 2 0 2 6 3 7Recovered paper kt 10.2 3.0 3.4 2.0 2.6 3.7P l k 388 7 344 7 265 0 233 2 256 1 262 5Pulp kt 388.7 344.7 265.0 233.2 256.1 262.5pWoodchips kt 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.2Woodchips kt 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.2

a Excludes railway sleepers.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Excludes railway sleepers.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Excludes railway sleepers.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Excludes railway sleepers.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia


Forest imports

TABLE 21 Value of forest products imports Australia

STATISTICSTATISTIC

21 l f f d21ValueofforestryproductsimportsAustralia21ValueofforestryproductsimportsAustralia2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–132007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mValueValueRoundwood 1 1 0 1 1 1Roundwood 0Sawnwood

Softwood roughsawn 186 134 140 135 105 100Sawnwood

Softwood roughsawn 186 134 140 135 105 100S ft d d d 191 168 200 248 248 246Softwood dressed 191 168 200 248 248 246Hardwood roughsawn 56 49 39 40 44 41Hardwood roughsawn 56 49 39 40 44 41Hardwood dressed 58 55 50 50 51 35Hardwood dressed 58 55 50 50 51 35Total 492 405 429 473 448 423Total 492 405 429 473 448 423

Miscellaneous forest products a 583 651 603 688 741 734Miscellaneous forest products a 583 651 603 688 741 734Wood‐based panels

V 33 28 22 21 21 19Wood‐based panels

Veneers 33 28 22 21 21 19Plywood 153 145 138 170 183 184Plywood 153 145 138 170 183 184Particleboard 34 27 20 21 26 27Particleboard 34 27 20 21 26 27Hardboard 28 26 30 40 54 48Hardboard 28 26 30 40 54 48M di d i fib b dMedium density fibreboard 33 41 37 34 36 32ySoftboard and other fibreboards 3 4 3 3 3 2Softboard and other fibreboards 3 4 3 3 3 2Total 284 271 250 289 323 311Total 284 271 250 289 323 311

Paper and paperboardNewsprint 185 173 158 176 91 58p p pNewsprint 185 173 158 176 91 58Printing and writing 1 456 1 468 1 355 1 347 1 217 1 151Printing and writing 1 456 1 468 1 355 1 347 1 217 1 151H h ld d it 137 154 164 185 187 244Household and sanitary 137 154 164 185 187 244yPackaging and industrial 470 481 499 515 543 590Packaging and industrial 470 481 499 515 543 590Total 2 248 2 276 2 175 2 223 2 037 2 043Total 2 248 2 276 2 175 2 223 2 037 2 043

Paper manufactures b 513 590 563 557 486 446Paper manufactures b 513 590 563 557 486 446dRecovered paper 2 1 1 0 1 1p p

Pulp 285 263 178 180 164 154Pulp 285 263 178 180 164 154Woodchips 2 2 1 2 2 3Woodchips 2 2 1 2 2 3T t l 4 412 4 459 4 200 4 412 4 202 4 116Total 4 412 4 459 4 200 4 412 4 202 4 116

a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Includes other paper articles that have had some further processing. Zero used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.



a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Includes other paper articles that have had some further processing. Zero used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia

a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Includes other paper articles that have had some further processing. Zero used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of AustralasiaSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of AustralasiaSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia


Fisheries exports

TABLE 22 Volume of fisheries products exports Australia

STATISTICS

22 Volume of fisheries products exports Australia22Volumeoffisheriesproductsexports‐Australia2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 132007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

kt kt kt kt kt ktEdible aFishEdible aFish

Li 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 9 0 9 0 8Live 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8Tuna 12.6 11.5 9.5 7.8 8.9 8.9Tuna 12.6 11.5 9.5 7.8 8.9 8.9Salmonids 3.0 6.6 4.0 6.4 5.8 2.6Salmonids 3.0 6.6 4.0 6.4 5.8 2.6Swordfish 0 2 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 5 0 5Swordfish 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5Whi iWhiting 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.8 0.9 0.4gOther fish 5.2 5.8 5.4 5.5 5.1 4.7Other fish 5.2 5.8 5.4 5.5 5.1 4.7

Total fish 23 4 26 8 21 7 22 7 22 0 17 8Total fish 23.4 26.8 21.7 22.7 22.0 17.8

Crustaceans and molluscsRocklobster 9 5 9 6 7 7 7 0 6 9 7 8

Crustaceans and molluscsRocklobster 9.5 9.6 7.7 7.0 6.9 7.8Prawns 4 9 4 8 4 7 6 4 5 4 3 9Prawns 4.9 4.8 4.7 6.4 5.4 3.9Ab lAbalone 3.6 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.8Scallops 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4Scallops 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4Crabs 1 4 1 3 1 1 1 0 0 8 0 4Crabs 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.4Other crustaceans and molluscs 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 1 7 2 1Other crustaceans and molluscs 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.1

Total crustaceans and molluscs 21.6 21.2 19.2 19.6 18.4 17.5

T t l dibl 45 0 48 0 40 9 42 4 40 5 35 3Total edible 45.0 48.0 40.9 42.4 40.5 35.3

a Includes prepared and preserved.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes prepared and preserved.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes prepared and preserved.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes prepared and preserved.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes prepared and preserved.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Fisheries exports

TABLE 23 Value of fisheries products exports (fob) Australia


2323 Value of fisheries products exports (fob) Australia23Valueoffisheriesproductsexports(fob)Australia2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–132007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mEdiblEdible FishFish

Live 42 8 46 5 40 4 33 4 32 0 30 7Live 42.8 46.5 40.4 33.4 32.0 30.7Tuna 206 2 176 8 118 5 131 4 162 7 162 6Tuna 206.2 176.8 118.5 131.4 162.7 162.6Salmonids 21.9 47.2 29.6 54.4 41.8 25.4Swordfish 2.3 3.6 4.2 4.5 4.2 3.9Swordfish 2.3 3.6 4.2 4.5 4.2 3.9Whiting 3 0 3 4 3 4 5 0 2 5 1 4Whiting 3.0 3.4 3.4 5.0 2.5 1.4Oth fi h 47 7 55 7 61 6 58 1 46 2 34 2Other fish 47.7 55.7 61.6 58.1 46.2 34.2

Total fish 323.9 333.1 257.8 286.8 289.4 258.2Total fish 323.9 333.1 257.8 286.8 289.4 258.2

Cr staceans and moll scsCrustaceans and molluscsRocklobster 400.7 461.6 399.7 369.3 386.7 447.3Rocklobster 400.7 461.6 399.7 369.3 386.7 447.3Prawns 68.6 82.2 61.5 77.1 66.7 51.8Prawns 68.6 82.2 61.5 77.1 66.7 51.8Abalone 217 2 208 2 216 4 212 0 197 3 185 8Abalone 217.2 208.2 216.4 212.0 197.3 185.8S ll 27 8 33 3 29 5 15 4 15 3 10 8Scallops 27.8 33.3 29.5 15.4 15.3 10.8Crabs 15.7 16.4 13.8 13.4 11.0 8.2Crabs 15.7 16.4 13.8 13.4 11.0 8.2Other crustaceans and molluscs 10 6 9 7 8 5 16 3 34 4 40 3Other crustaceans and molluscs 10.6 9.7 8.5 16.3 34.4 40.3

Total crustaceans and molluscs 740 6 811 4 729 3 703 6 711 3 744 1Total crustaceans and molluscs 740.6 811.4 729.3 703.6 711.3 744.1

Total edible 1 064.5 1 144.5 987.1 990.3 1 000.7 1 002.3Total edible 1 064.5 1 144.5 987.1 990.3 1 000.7 1 002.3

diblNon‐edibleMarine fats and oils 5.5 5.0 4.8 5.4 7.3 10.0Marine fats and oils 5.5 5.0 4.8 5.4 7.3 10.0Fish meal 1 0 1 3 2 1 1 6 0 4 1 0Fish meal 1.0 1.3 2.1 1.6 0.4 1.0Pearls 264 0 366 4 243 9 241 3 206 6 151 5Pearls a 264.0 366.4 243.9 241.3 206.6 151.5Ornamental fish 1.9 3.4 2.7 2.3 2.3 3.8Ornamental fish 1.9 3.4 2.7 2.3 2.3 3.8Other non‐edible 3.9 7.8 5.5 7.3 9.4 6.5Other non‐edible 3.9 7.8 5.5 7.3 9.4 6.5

Total non‐edible 276 3 384 0 259 0 257 9 226 1 172 8Total non‐edible 276.3 384.0 259.0 257.9 226.1 172.8

Total fisheries products 1 340 8 1 528 5 1 246 1 1 248 2 1 226 8 1 175 1Total fisheries products 1 340.8 1 528.5 1 246.1 1 248.2 1 226.8 1 175.1a Includes items temporarily exported and re‐imported.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes items temporarily exported and re‐imported.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes items temporarily exported and re‐imported.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes items temporarily exported and re‐imported.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes items temporarily exported and re‐imported.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes items temporarily exported and re‐imported.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Fisheries imports

TABLE 24 Volume of fisheries products imports Australia

STATISTICS

24 Volume of fisheries products imports Australia24VolumeoffisheriesproductsimportsAustralia2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 132007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

kt kt kt kt kt ktkt kt kt kt kt ktEdible aFishEdible aFish

TTuna 38.8 38.0 39.9 45.6 40.8 46.9Salmonids 10.2 10.9 9.8 9.9 10.2 11.9Salmonids 10.2 10.9 9.8 9.9 10.2 11.9Hake 6 8 5 7 5 4 6 7 5 3 6 1Hake 6.8 5.7 5.4 6.7 5.3 6.1Swordfish 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2Swordfish 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

hf hToothfish 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2Herrings 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.8Herrings 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.8Shark 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 5 0 5 0 5Shark 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5Other fish 79 4 77 2 83 3 83 1 86 6 92 8Other fish 79.4 77.2 83.3 83.1 86.6 92.8

Total fish b 136.8 133.4 140.3 147.1 144.4 160.5Total fish bCrustaceans and molluscsCrustaceans and molluscs

Prawns 29.8 26.7 34.5 32.6 37.5 34.8Lobster 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8Lobster 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8Crabs 1 1 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 5 1 5Crabs 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5M l 2 2 2 8 2 4 2 6 2 8 3 7Mussels 2.2 2.8 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.7Scallops 2.5 2.2 2.8 2.6 3.0 3.1Scallops 2.5 2.2 2.8 2.6 3.0 3.1Squid and octopus 15.6 16.8 16.0 15.2 17.0 19.9Squid and octopus 15.6 16.8 16.0 15.2 17.0 19.9Other crustaceans and molluscs 9 4 9 9 9 6 9 4 7 3 4 1Other crustaceans and molluscs 9.4 9.9 9.6 9.4 7.3 4.1

T t l t d ll 61 4 59 9 67 2 64 7 69 8 67 9Total crustaceans and molluscs 61.4 59.9 67.2 64.7 69.8 67.9

Total edible abc 198 3 193 3 207 4 211 8 214 2 228 4Total edible abc 198.3 193.3 207.4 211.8 214.2 228.4a Includes prepared and preserved. b Excludes live tonnage. c Includes other fisheries products not classified to fish or crustaceans and molluscs.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

a Includes prepared and preserved. b Excludes live tonnage. c Includes other fisheries products not classified to fish or crustaceans and molluscs.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics






Fisheries imports

TABLE 25 Value of fisheries products imports Australia

STATISTICS

25 Value of fisheries products imports Australia25ValueoffisheriesproductsimportsAustralia2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 132007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mEdible aFishEdible aFish

TTuna 174.1 223.3 169.3 200.8 205.5 258.2Salmonids 79.1 100.0 85.8 84.4 91.8 118.8Salmonids 79.1 100.0 85.8 84.4 91.8 118.8Hake 32 0 31 0 26 1 27 2 20 9 23 4Hake 32.0 31.0 26.1 27.2 20.9 23.4Swordfish 1 4 1 5 1 8 1 5 1 2 1 7Swordfish 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.7

hf hToothfish 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 2.2Herrings 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2 5.1Herrings 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2 5.1Shark 4 1 4 5 5 6 4 4 4 0 4 6Shark 4.1 4.5 5.6 4.4 4.0 4.6Other fish 415 2 455 5 455 0 443 7 459 6 480 0Other fish 415.2 455.5 455.0 443.7 459.6 480.0

Total fish b 715.0 824.6 751.5 769.1 788.6 866.5Total fish bCrustaceans and molluscsCrustaceans and molluscs

Prawns 250.2 270.7 298.7 291.0 350.9 304.8Lobster 14.2 9.8 11.8 15.0 16.0 15.3Lobster 14.2 9.8 11.8 15.0 16.0 15.3Crabs 10 3 11 3 12 4 13 3 15 5 16 8Crabs 10.3 11.3 12.4 13.3 15.5 16.8M l 9 0 12 0 9 3 10 2 11 7 17 1Mussels 9.0 12.0 9.3 10.2 11.7 17.1Scallops 28.1 29.9 33.5 34.5 43.6 41.1Scallops 28.1 29.9 33.5 34.5 43.6 41.1Squid and octopus 45.6 54.3 62.0 74.3 90.4 97.7Squid and octopus 45.6 54.3 62.0 74.3 90.4 97.7Other crustaceans and molluscs 59 8 70 1 66 5 65 3 57 0 40 7Other crustaceans and molluscs 59.8 70.1 66.5 65.3 57.0 40.7

T t l t d ll 417 2 458 1 494 2 503 5 585 1 533 4Total crustaceans and molluscs 417.2 458.1 494.2 503.5 585.1 533.4

Total edible abc 198 3 193 3 207 4 211 8 214 2 228 5Total edible abc 198.3 193.3 207.4 211.8 214.2 228.5

Non‐ediblePearls d 166 4 320 6 170 8 166 9 138 2 105 4Non ediblePearls d 166.4 320.6 170.8 166.9 138.2 105.4Fish meal 41 2 41 9 51 9 46 7 34 2 43 3Fish meal 41.2 41.9 51.9 46.7 34.2 43.3Ornamental fish 5.4 5.8 4.6 3.9 3.7 4.0Marine fats and oils 27.1 33.9 26.8 31.0 39.5 39.1Marine fats and oils 27.1 33.9 26.8 31.0 39.5 39.1Other marine products 25 6 24 9 14 9 9 9 17 1 29 0Other marine products 25.6 24.9 14.9 9.9 17.1 29.0

Total non‐edible 265.7 427.1 269.0 258.4 232.8 220.7Total non edible 265.7 427.1 269.0 258.4 232.8 220.7

l fi h i dTotal fisheries products 1 394.3 1 706.5 1 512.9 1 529.7 1 606.6 1 648.3pa Includes prepared and preserved. b Includes live value. c Includes other fisheries products not classified to fish or crustaceans and molluscs. dMainly re‐imports.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

a Includes prepared and preserved. b Includes live value. c Includes other fisheries products not classified to fish or crustaceans and molluscs. dMainly re‐imports.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics







Agricultural exports

TABLE 26 Agricultural exports to Japan (fob) a Australia

STATISTICS

26 A l l (f b)26AgriculturalexportstoJapan(fob)aAustralia2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13

26AgriculturalexportstoJapan(fob)aAustralia2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

$ $ $ $ $ $$m $m $m $m $m $mFFarm

d l dGrains and oilseedsWinter crops

barley b 234 335 284 260 316 257barley bcanola 70 65 109 41 47 72lupins 4 9 9 9 9 7lupinswheat c 289 434 498 408 395 392wheat c 289 434 498 408 395 392

Summer cropscottonseed 8 16 31 24 31 36

Summer cropscottonseed 8 16 31 24 31 36grain sorghum 25 319 70 105 219 202grain sorghum 25 319 70 105 219 202other grains d 3 2 3 3 3 10other grains d 3 2 3 3 3 10other oilseeds e 6 4 1 1 1 1other oilseeds e 6 4 1 1 1 1

Total grains and oilseeds 638 1 184 1 005 852 1 021 978Total grains and oilseeds 638 1 184 1 005 852 1 021 978

I d t i lIndustrial cropsRaw cotton g 47 39 31 48 63 28Sugar 129 192 190 194 211 221 sgWine 49 54 43 44 45 42Total industrial crops 225 285 264 286 319 291pHorticultureFruit 81 70 61 70 59 63HorticultureFruit 81 70 61 70 59 63Tree nuts 13 15 17 16 20 23Tree nuts 13 15 17 16 20 23Vegetables 42 49 34 47 43 43Vegetables 42 49 34 47 43 43Nursery 5 6 4 4 3 3Nursery 5 6 4 4 3 3Other horticulture h 4 4 5 7 6 4Other horticulture h 4 4 5 7 6 4Total horticulture 146 144 121 143 131 134Total horticulture 146 144 121 143 131 134Other crops and crop products 44 61 47 54 47 50Other crops and crop products 44 61 47 54 47 50

Total crops 1 053 1 674 1 437 1 334 1 517 1 453p 1 053 1 674 1 437 1 334 1 517 1 453

Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 1 794 2 066 1 682 1 667 1 549 1 435Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 1 794 2 066 1 682 1 667 1 549 1 435Live cattle i 18 14 15 16 20 15Live cattle i 18 14 15 16 20 15Lamb 53 67 52 60 63 54Lamb 53 67 52 60 63 54Mutton 28 39 24 26 24 17Mutton 28 39 24 26 24 17Oth t d li i l j 10 5 6 2 2 1Other meat and live animals j 10 5 6 2 2 1

l d l lTotal meat and live animals 1 903 2 191 1 779 1 771 1 657 1 522

Wool Greasy 0 2 4 9 12 8Wool Greasy 0 2 4 9 12 8Semi‐processed 17 12 12 23 26 21Semi‐processed 17 12 12 23 26 21Skins 5 3 1 1 2 1Skins 5 3 1 1 2 1Total 22 17 17 33 39 30Total 22 17 17 33 39 30

Dairy productsB tt 17 11 2 6 9 4Dairy productsButter 17 11 2 6 9 4Ch 427 399 358 356 423 415Cheese 427 399 358 356 423 415Casein 38 44 26 22 21 17Skim milk powder 10 22 3 2 2 5Whole milk powder 0 0 0 0 1 0pOther dairy products 53 46 44 37 44 65y pTotal dairy product exports 545 521 433 423 500 506y p pOther livestock exports 394 438 323 339 303 297Other livestock exports 394 438 323 339 303 297Total livestock exports 2 864 3 167 2 552 2 567 2 500 2 355Total livestock exports 2 864 3 167 2 552 2 567 2 500 2 355Total agricultural exports 3 917 4 841 3 989 3 901 4 017 3 808Total agricultural exports 3 917 4 841 3 989 3 901 4 017 3 808

a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988–89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. d Includes grains not separately listed. e Includes oilseeds not separately listed. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. i Excludes breeding stock. j Includes other meat and live animals not listed separately. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture










TABLE 27 Agricultural exports to the United States (fob) a Australia STATISTICS

27 A l l h d S (f b)27AgriculturalexportstotheUnitedStates(fob)aAustralia2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13

27AgriculturalexportstotheUnitedStates(fob)aAustralia2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

$ $ $ $ $ $$m $m $m $m $m $mFFarm


barley b 0 0 0 0 0 8barley bchickpeas 1 2 1 2 2 2p

Summer cropscottonseed 0 0 10 0 20 50

p0 0 10 0 20 50

other grains c 1 1 1 1 0 0gother oilseeds d 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total grains and oilseeds 3 2 12 3 22 61Total grains and oilseeds 3 2 12 3 22 61

Industrial cropsRaw cotton e 0 0 0 0 0 0Industrial cropsRaw cotton e 0 0 0 0 0 0Sugar 43 66 58 85 120 73 sSugar 43 66 58 85 120 73 sWine 734 762 627 524 493 483Wine 734 762 627 524 493 483Total industrial crops 777 829 685 609 613 556Total industrial crops 777 829 685 609 613 556

i lF itHorticultureFruit 65 60 67 33 33 25TTree nuts 15 20 22 12 15 28

blVegetables 7 10 8 7 8 6Nursery 4 4 3 2 2 2yOther horticulture g 19 18 14 16 15 19g 19 18 14 16 15 19Total horticulture 110 111 114 70 72 80 110 111 114 70 72 80Other crops and crop products 93 174 167 168 142 191Other crops and crop products 93 174 167 168 142 191Total crops 984 1 116 978 851 849 887Total crops 984 1 116 978 851 849 887

M d li i lB f d lMeat and live animalsBeef and veal 925 1 225 817 704 896 960L bLamb 313 354 303 335 305 295M ttMutton 45 35 32 38 21 34O h d li i lOther meat and live animals h 0 0 0 0 0 0Total meat and live animals 1 283 1 615 1 152 1 077 1 222 1 289

WoolGreasy 9 7 9 11 8 7Wool Greasy 9 7 9 11 8 7Semi‐processed 2 1 3 3 3 2Semi‐processed 2 1 3 3 3 2Skins 0 0 0 0 0 0Skins 0 0 0 0 0 0Total 11 8 12 14 11 9Total 11 8 12 14 11 9

D i dDairy productsButter 10 19 10 3 7 13Cheese 37 60 20 12 3 11Casein 42 29 23 13 7 9Skim milk powder 7 0 0 0 0 0pWhole milk powder 9 8 9 4 4 5Whole milk powderOther dairy products 10 10 13 17 15 16Other dairy products 10 10 13 17 15 16Total dairy product exports 115 126 74 50 35 53Total dairy product exports 115 126 74 50 35 53

Other livestock exports 105 125 116 125 115 136Other livestock exports 105 125 116 125 115 136Total livestock exports 1 514 1 874 1 354 1 266 1 383 1 487Total livestock exports 1 514 1 874 1 354 1 266 1 383 1 487Total agricultural exports 2 498 2 990 2 332 2 117 2 232 2 374Total agricultural exports 2 498 2 990 2 332 2 117 2 232 2 374

a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988–89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Includes grains not separately listed. d Includes oilseeds not separately listed. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. g Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. h Includes meat and live animals not listed separately. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture










TABLE 28 Agricultural exports to China (fob) a Australia

STATISTICS

28 A l l Ch (f b)28AgriculturalexportstoChina(fob)aAustralia2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13

28AgriculturalexportstoChina(fob)aAustralia2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

$ $ $ $ $ $$m $m $m $m $m $mFFarm


barley b 295 235 280 311 454 455barley bcanola 0 21 0 0 0 249wheat c 22 42 219 144 457 357wheat c

Summer cropsgrain sorghum 0 0 14 14 4 98

Summer cropsgrain sorghum 0 0 14 14 4 98other grains d 0 0 1 0 1 6other grains d 0 0 1 0 1 6other oilseeds e 1 2 1 45 116 95other oilseeds e 1 2 1 45 116 95

Total grains and oilseeds 318 300 514 514 1 032 1 260Total grains and oilseeds 318 300 514 514 1 032 1 260

Industrial cropsR 164 165 274 551 1 812 1 849Industrial cropsRaw cotton g 164 165 274 551 1 812 1 849Sugar 15 3 4 31 21 2 sWine 61 95 144 178 209 241Total industrial crops 240 263 421 760 2 041 2 093pHorticultureFruit 8 6 6 8 10 28HorticultureFruit 8 6 6 8 10 28Tree nuts 12 14 8 6 11 36Tree nuts 12 14 8 6 11 36Vegetables 2 1 6 4 6 4Vegetables 2 1 6 4 6 4Nursery 0 0 0 1 1 0Nursery 0 0 0 1 1 0Other horticulture h 2 3 4 3 4 4Other horticulture h 2 3 4 3 4 4Total horticulture 24 23 25 23 32 72Total horticulture 24 23 25 23 32 72Other crops and crop products 25 7 7 8 22 30Other crops and crop products 25 7 7 8 22 30Total crops 607 593 967 1 305 3 127 3 455Total crops 607 593 967 1 305 3 127 3 455

Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 10 20 17 28 40 406Live cattle i 0 0 5 4 0 0Lamb 37 34 34 63 73 108 37 34 34 63 73 108Mutton 5 9 13 12 14 102 5 9 13 12 14 102Other meat and live animals j 0 0 0 0 0 1Other meat and live animals j 0 0 0 0 0 1Total meat and live animals 52 64 69 107 127 616Total meat and live animals 52 64 69 107 127 616

WoolG 1 455 1 328 1 460 1 864 1 925 1 844Wool Greasy 1 455 1 328 1 460 1 864 1 925 1 844S i d 28 55 62 21 24 18Semi‐processed 28 55 62 21 24 18SkiSkins 265 271 257 351 369 337T t lTotal 1 748 1 654 1 779 2 235 2 319 2 200

Dairy productsButter 4 3 5 4 7 6Dairy productsButter 4 3 5 4 7 6Cheese 18 14 23 30 37 44Cheese 18 14 23 30 37 44Casein 4 5 7 1 1 1Casein 4 5 7 1 1 1Skim milk powder 34 39 22 37 50 35Skim milk powder 34 39 22 37 50 35Whole milk powder 21 48 38 52 11 56Whole milk powder 21 48 38 52 11 56Other dairy products 58 54 45 35 58 68Other dairy products 58 54 45 35 58 68Total dairy product exports 139 164 139 159 164 210Total dairy product exports 139 164 139 159 164 210

O h li k 80 20 603 660 60Other livestock exports 480 520 603 660 747 760l li kTotal livestock exports 2 420 2 401 2 591 3 161 3 357 3 786

Total agricultural exports 3 027 2 995 3 558 4 466 6 484 7 241a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988–89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. d Includes grains not separately listed. e Includes oilseeds not separately listed. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. i Excludes breeding stock. j Includes meat and other live animals not listed separately. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture

a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988–89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. d Includes grains not separately listed. e Includes oilseeds not separately listed. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. i Excludes breeding stock. j Includes meat and other live animals not listed separately. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture









TABLE 29 Value of Australian forest products trade, by selected countries

STATISTICS

29 Value of Australian forestry products trade by selected countries29ValueofAustralianforestryproductstrade,byselectedcountries2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 132007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mExports

China 360 390 394 544 534 475Exports

China 360 390 394 544 534 475Hong Kong 54 51 68 42 39 16g gJapan 965 860 774 745 579 394Japan 965 860 774 745 579 394Korea Rep of 91 103 48 40 40 33Korea, Rep. of 91 103 48 40 40 33Malaysia 57 78 82 106 112 75Malaysia 57 78 82 106 112 75New Zealand 375 324 319 314 306 268Taiwan 88 77 88 79 68 68Taiwan 88 77 88 79 68 68

I tImportsChina 547 611 624 680 797 910China 547 611 624 680 797 910Finland 272 274 171 143 120 205Finland 272 274 171 143 120 205Germany 178 167 178 183 147 134Germany 178 167 178 183 147 134dIndonesia 336 374 351 332 342 313

Malaysia 209 215 217 228 233 223Malaysia 209 215 217 228 233 223New Zealand 790 744 703 715 634 556New Zealand 790 744 703 715 634 556U it d St t 289 320 313 285 297 303United States 289 320 313 285 297 303

Source: Australian Bureau of StatisticsSource: Australian Bureau of StatisticsSource: Australian Bureau of StatisticsSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Forestry trade


Fisheries trade

TABLE 30 Value of Australian fisheries products trade, by selected countries Australia

STATISTICS

30 Value of Australian fishery products trade by selected countries Australia30ValueofAustralianfisheryproductstrade,byselectedcountriesAustralia2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 132007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

$m $m $m $m $m $m$ $ $ $ $ $ExportsExports

Edible (including live)H K 46 0 30 426 4 9 31Edible (including live)Hong Kong 467 570 530 426 479 317g gVietnam 8 3 4 8 60 293Vietnam 8 3 4 8 60 293Japan 328 302 215 226 255 236Japan 328 302 215 226 255 236China 26 30 43 143 59 45China 26 30 43 143 59 45SiSingapore 40 44 37 41 42 31g pUnited States 73 65 49 36 23 18United States 73 65 49 36 23 18Taiwan 45 54 33 30 18 10Taiwan 45 54 33 30 18 10Thailand 8 7 9 16 18 9Thailand 8 7 9 16 18 9New Zealand 12 9 17 10 10 9Malaysia 8 13 9 13 8 8Malaysia 8 13 9 13 8 8Indonesia 4 5 7 9 6 7Indonesia 4 5 7 9 6 7

Non‐edibleHong Kong 128 201 138 145 97 54Non edibleHong Kong 128 201 138 145 97 54Japan 53 64 50 43 44 33Japan 53 64 50 43 44 33

i dUnited States 24 22 15 8 22 21

Imports aImports adibl ( l di li )Edible (excluding live)Thailand 295 368 322 340 362 400

( g )Thailand 295 368 322 340 362 400New Zealand 198 207 212 210 197 206New Zealand 198 207 212 210 197 206China 132 152 173 186 231 196China 132 152 173 186 231 196ViVietnam 142 167 153 162 174 163Malaysia 55 65 63 71 73 81Malaysia 55 65 63 71 73 81United States 29 49 37 40 45 52United States 29 49 37 40 45 52Indonesia 23 31 39 28 36 51Indonesia 23 31 39 28 36 51Taiwan 32 33 37 39 39 48South Africa 24 23 30 28 31 35South Africa 24 23 30 28 31 35Denmark 19 24 24 19 25 32Denmark 19 24 24 19 25 32N 21 20 27 25 27 30Norway 21 20 27 25 27 30Other 41 36 36 33 32 36Other 41 36 36 33 32 36

a Country details for non‐edible imports are not available.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Country details for non‐edible imports are not available.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Country details for non‐edible imports are not available.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Country details for non‐edible imports are not available.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Food exports

TABLE 31 Food exports by level of transformation Australia31 Australian food exports by level of transformation Australia31AustralianfoodexportsbyleveloftransformationAustralia2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 132007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mMinimally transformedLive animals except fish 761 924 924 924 787 564Minimally transformedLive animals except fish 761 924 924 924 787 564Fi h h llfi h 646 747 650 667 721 763Fish or shellfish 646 747 650 667 721 763HorticultureHorticultureVegetables 137 152 150 166 152 152Vegetables 137 152 150 166 152 152Fruit and nuts 433 563 472 368 450 634Fruit and nuts 433 563 472 368 450 634

lTotal 571 716 622 534 602 785Grains a 4 221 6 383 4 632 6 765 8 793 8 597Grains a 4 221 6 383 4 632 6 765 8 793 8 597Oilseeds 346 644 657 973 1 555 2 340Oilseeds 346 644 657 973 1 555 2 340Food nec 41 49 43 50 52 78Food nec 41 49 43 50 52 78

b i ll d l b l f dSubstantially and elaborately transformedy yMeatMeat processing 6 506 7 411 6 313 6 887 7 068 7 595MeatMeat processing 6 506 7 411 6 313 6 887 7 068 7 595P lt i 32 43 36 38 45 43Poultry processing 32 43 36 38 45 43Bacon, ham and smallgoods 33 47 54 57 87 104Bacon, ham and smallgoods 33 47 54 57 87 104Total 6 571 7 501 6 403 6 983 7 201 7 741Total 6 571 7 501 6 403 6 983 7 201 7 741Seafood 420 399 338 324 281 240Seafood 420 399 338 324 281 240D iDairyMilk and cream processing 1 258 1 354 880 1 107 1 065 997Milk and cream processing 1 258 1 354 880 1 107 1 065 997Ice cream 37 31 31 33 27 16Ice cream 37 31 31 33 27 16Cheese 968 796 715 731 751 784Cheese 968 796 715 731 751 784h d dOther dairy products 499 497 440 451 422 401y p

Total 2 763 2 679 2 066 2 322 2 264 2 198Total 2 763 2 679 2 066 2 322 2 264 2 198Fruit and vegetables 568 575 523 571 625 668Fruit and vegetables 568 575 523 571 625 668Oil and fat 239 303 289 293 317 326Oil and fat 239 303 289 293 317 326l ll d l f dFlour mill and cereal foodFlour mill products 315 419 365 344 313 347Flour mill products 315 419 365 344 313 347Cereal food and baking mix 287 390 445 614 880 955Cereal food and baking mix 287 390 445 614 880 955T t l 602 809 811 958 1 193 1 302Total 602 809 811 958 1 193 1 302Bakery productsBread, cake and pastry 26 25 26 22 22 26Bakery productsBread, cake and pastry 26 25 26 22 22 26Biscuit 118 127 135 134 129 118Biscuit 118 127 135 134 129 118T l 144 1 2 161 1 1 0 144Total 144 152 161 155 150 144Other foodSugar a 1 035 1 374 1 924 1 479 1 600 1 439Other foodSugar a 1 035 1 374 1 924 1 479 1 600 1 439Confectionery 237 269 260 252 240 207Confectionery 237 269 260 252 240 207

lTotal 2 366 3 065 3 607 3 091 3 469 3 519Beverage and maltSoft drink cordial and syrup 38 45 55 61 63 61Beverage and maltSoft drink, cordial and syrup 38 45 55 61 63 61B d lt 335 447 406 318 372 378Beer and malt 335 447 406 318 372 378Wine 2 700 2 493 2 188 2 009 1 910 1 867WineSpirit 86 105 101 97 103 144Spirit 86 105 101 97 103 144Total 3 159 3 091 2 750 2 485 2 447 2 450Total 3 159 3 091 2 750 2 485 2 447 2 450T t l f d d bTotal food and beverageMinimally transformed 6 585 9 462 7 528 9 913 12 510 13 128Minimally transformed 6 585 9 462 7 528 9 913 12 510 13 128Substantially transformed 16 508 18 224 16 587 16 836 17 612 18 271Substantially transformed 16 508 18 224 16 587 16 836 17 612 18 271Elaborately transformed 324 350 362 346 335 316Elaborately transformed 324 350 362 346 335 316Total 23 418 28 037 24 476 27 095 30 458 31 716

a Includes ABARES estimates where ABS confidentiality restrictions apply. nec not elsewhere classified.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes ABARES estimates where ABS confidentiality restrictions apply. nec not elsewhere classified.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes ABARES estimates where ABS confidentiality restrictions apply. nec not elsewhere classified.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes ABARES estimates where ABS confidentiality restrictions apply. nec not elsewhere classified.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes ABARES estimates where ABS confidentiality restrictions apply. nec not elsewhere classified.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes ABARES estimates where ABS confidentiality restrictions apply. nec not elsewhere classified.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Food imports

TABLE 32 Food imports by level of transformation Australia

STATISTIC

32 Australian food imports by level of transformation Australia32AustralianfoodimportsbyleveloftransformationAustralia2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 132007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

$m $m $m $m $m $m$ $ $ $ $ $Minimally transformedLive animals except fish 1 2 1 2 1 1Minimally transformedLive animals except fish 1 2 1 2 1 1Fi h h llfi h 65 67 72 73 67 72Fish or shellfish 65 67 72 73 67 72HorticultureVegetables 53 49 58 76 64 72Vegetables 53 49 58 76 64 72Fruit and nuts 216 225 262 245 290 285Fruit and nuts 216 225 262 245 290 285T t l 269 274 320 322 354 356Total 269 274 320 322 354 356Grains 2 2 3 4 6 8Grains 2 2 3 4 6 8Oilseeds 49 49 36 36 41 46Oilseeds 49 49 36 36 41 46Food nec 188 224 228 304 348 300Food nec 188 224 228 304 348 300S b t ti ll d l b t l t f dSubstantially and elaborately transformedMeat

y y

Meat processing 381 525 497 478 493 540MeatMeat processing 381 525 497 478 493 540Poultry processing 0 0 0 0 0 0Poultry processing 0 0 0 0 0 0Bacon, ham and smallgoods 50 68 82 90 112 119, gTotal 431 593 579 567 606 659Total 431 593 579 567 606 659Seafood 1 095 1 249 1 201 1 231 1 348 1 400Seafood 1 095 1 249 1 201 1 231 1 348 1 400DairyDairyMilk and cream processing 67 69 66 72 75 61Milk and cream processingIce cream 37 39 40 44 45 45Ice cream 37 39 40 44 45 45Cheese 377 365 360 398 408 388Cheese 377 365 360 398 408 388Oth d i d t 176 157 150 180 227 195Other dairy products 176 157 150 180 227 195y pTotal 656 631 615 694 755 689Total 656 631 615 694 755 689Fruit and vegetables 1 386 1 556 1 361 1 478 1 742 1 631Fruit and vegetables 1 386 1 556 1 361 1 478 1 742 1 631Oil and fat 489 578 485 517 516 522Oil and fat 489 578 485 517 516 522Fl ill d l f dFlour mill and cereal foodFlour mill products 66 83 66 48 53 60Flour mill products 66 83 66 48 53 60Cereal food and baking mix 462 576 577 523 504 534Cereal food and baking mix 462 576 577 523 504 534Total 527 659 643 572 557 594Total 527 659 643 572 557 594

k dBakery productsBread, cake and pastry 175 197 191 222 242 282

y pBread, cake and pastry 175 197 191 222 242 282Biscuit 162 179 178 191 206 229Biscuit 162 179 178 191 206 229T t l 337 376 369 413 448 511Total 337 376 369 413 448 511Other foodSugar 22 44 71 125 95 73Sugar 22 44 71 125 95 73Confectionery 438 518 525 547 576 588Confectionery 438 518 525 547 576 588

d 1 221 1 430 1 396 1 460 1 583 1 745Food nec 1 221 1 430 1 396 1 460 1 583 1 745Total 1 681 1 992 1 992 2 131 2 255 2 406Total 1 681 1 992 1 992 2 131 2 255 2 406Beverage and maltSoft drink cordial and syrup 697 791 798 818 898 928Beverage and maltSoft drink, cordial and syrup 697 791 798 818 898 928

d lBeer and malt 161 226 212 196 219 274Wine 454 502 477 490 554 602Wine 454 502 477 490 554 602Spirit 491 530 538 544 571 568Spirit 491 530 538 544 571 568Total 1 802 2 050 2 026 2 048 2 243 2 373Total 1 802 2 050 2 026 2 048 2 243 2 373

l f d d bTotal food and beverageMinimally transformed 573 618 660 741 818 784

gMinimally transformed 573 618 660 741 818 784Substantially transformed 8 008 9 254 8 836 9 205 9 989 10 270Substantially transformed 8 008 9 254 8 836 9 205 9 989 10 270El b t l t f d 396 429 434 445 481 515Elaborately transformed 396 429 434 445 481 515Total 8 978 10 301 9 930 10 391 11 288 11 569Total 8 978 10 301 9 930 10 391 11 288 11 569a Includes ABARES estimates where ABS confidentiality restrictions apply. nec not elsewhere classified. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes ABARES estimates where ABS confidentiality restrictions apply. nec not elsewhere classified. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes ABARES estimates where ABS confidentiality restrictions apply. nec not elsewhere classified. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes ABARES estimates where ABS confidentiality restrictions apply. nec not elsewhere classified. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes ABARES estimates where ABS confidentiality restrictions apply. nec not elsewhere classified. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes ABARES estimates where ABS confidentiality restrictions apply. nec not elsewhere classified. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Food trade

TABLE 33 Total food exports, by selected destination Australia

STATISTICS

2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13$m $m $m $m $m $m

Canada 402 380 335 332 328 339China 917 1 178 1 426 1 550 2 076 3 007Egypt 174 315 266 402 387 348Germany 162 153 109 263 262 197Hong Kong 857 1 082 997 890 1 024 912Indonesia 1 702 2 652 2 129 2 288 2 271 2 330Japan 4 553 5 517 4 278 4 213 4 415 4 289Korea, Rep. of 1 655 1 873 1 925 1 995 2 314 2 156Malaysia 799 1 231 853 851 879 923New Zealand 1 303 1 406 1 323 1 300 1 393 1 396Philippines 308 563 318 503 679 643Saudi Arabia 1 144 1 020 566 500 842 810Singapore 712 792 722 742 799 788Taiwan 574 671 613 627 628 634Thailand 393 626 424 539 725 563United Arab Emirates 445 567 528 581 600 846United Kingdom 1 136 1 005 784 685 614 598United States 2 552 3 054 2 379 2 165 2 285 2 421Other 3 631 3 951 4 503 6 670 7 936 8 517Total 23 418 28 037 24 476 27 095 30 458 31 716

33Australiantotalfoodexports,byselecteddestinationAustralia

Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

STATISTICS

34 Australian total food imports by selected source Australia34Australiantotalfoodimports,byselectedsourceAustralia2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 132007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mBrazil 129 150 110 148 176 126Brazil 129 150 110 148 176 126Canada 220 268 234 219 210 185Canada 220 268 234 219 210 185China a 617 754 708 750 841 835China aFrance 278 281 281 297 332 382France 278 281 281 297 332 382India 156 175 164 167 222 212India 156 175 164 167 222 212I d i 158 202 189 191 190 212Indonesia 158 202 189 191 190 212Ireland 536 559 585 252 89 77Ireland 536 559 585 5 89 77Italy 436 494 463 430 469 487Italy 436 494 463 430 469 487Malaysia 354 459 392 455 456 424Malaysia 354 459 392 455 456 424N th l d 182 220 197 200 275 311Netherlands 182 220 197 200 275 311New Zealand 1 671 1 684 1 801 1 895 2 047 2 060New Zealand 1 671 1 684 1 801 1 895 2 047 2 060Papua New Guinea 36 45 44 57 59 37Papua New Guinea 36 45 44 57 59 37Singapore 155 205 194 539 792 797Singapore 155 205 194 539 792 797

iSpain 173 153 186 171 158 172pThailand 547 702 689 759 741 784Thailand 547 702 689 759 741 784United Kingdom 295 314 331 324 347 382United Kingdom 295 314 331 324 347 382United States 803 994 893 959 1 139 1 231United States 803 994 893 959 1 139 1 231Vietnam 250 297 280 303 344 328Other 1 981 2 346 2 191 2 275 2 401 2 527Other 1 981 2 346 2 191 2 275 2 401 2 527Total 8 978 10 301 9 930 10 391 11 288 11 569Total 8 978 10 301 9 930 10 391 11 288 11 569

a Excludes imports from Hong Kong.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Excludes imports from Hong Kong.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Excludes imports from Hong Kong.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Excludes imports from Hong Kong.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Excludes imports from Hong Kong.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

TABLE 34 Total food imports, by selected source country Australia


144

ABARES reports released since Agricultural commodities (vol. 3 no. 3 September quarter 2013)Following is a selection of ABARES reports released since publication of Agricultural commodities in September 2013. A brief description of each report is provided. While not comprehensive, the selection provides an overview of the range of interests ABARES covers.

All reports can be downloaded from daff.gov.au/abares/publications.

For more information contact [email protected].

Research reportsWhat Asia wants: long-term food consumption trends in Asia

Research report 13.12Publication date: 10 October 2013

This report is the first What Asia wants study. It assesses future trends in Asian food demand and identifies opportunities for Australian agriculture and food industries in expanding Asian markets over the long term.

Potential socio-economic impacts of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Australia

Research report 13.11Publication date: 11 October 2013

Authors: Benjamin Buetre, Santhi Wicks, Heleen Kruger, Niki Millist, Alasebu Yainshet, Graeme Garner, Alixaandrea Duncan, Ali Abdalla, Charlene Trestrail, Marco Hatt, Lyndal-Joy Thompson and Michael Symes

This report shows that an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Australia could inflict large economic costs on both livestock producers and other industries within and beyond the outbreak area, with financial losses and eradication activities also having social effects.

Report extracts


Infrastructure and Australia’s food industry: preliminary economic assessment

Research report 13.13Publication date: 5 November 2013

Authors: Nga Nguyen, Lindsay Hogan, Kenton Lawson, Peter Gooday, Richard Green, Keely Harris-Adams and Thilak Mallawaarachchi

The report provides a preliminary assessment of the role of economic infrastructure—transport, water, energy and telecommunications facilities—in the development of Australia’s food industry. The study also identifies future work required to assess impediments to infrastructure provision. This work would support growth in Australia’s food production and processing industry.

Technical reportsTowards national reporting on agricultural land use change in Australia

Technical report 13.06Publication date: 11 October 2013

Authors: Jodie Mewett, Justyna Paplinska, Georgina Kelley, Rob Lesslie, Phil Pritchard and Christine Atyeo

The report outlines the extent of agricultural land use in Australia in 2005–06 and describes changes in key agricultural and conservation land uses from 1992–93 to 2005–06, nationally and at the regional scale. The report discusses changes in grazing, cropping, nature conservation and plantation forestry, as well as changes in peri-urban environments.

Improving Australia’s forest area estimate using a Multiple Lines of Evidence approach

Technical report 13.07Publication date: 19 November 2013

Authors: Martin Mutendeudzi, Steve Read, Claire Howell, Stuart Davey and Tim Clancy

This report outlines a new methodology for determining national forest cover statistics for Australia’s National Forest Inventory. The area of forest cover provides the footprint against which many other indicators of sustainable forest management are reported, including forest type and tenure, forest fragmentation, forest ecosystem services, forest production, forest ecosystem health, and investment in forest management.

Report extracts

145


Using enabling technologies to meet demands for food security and sustainability

Technical report 13.08Publication date: 21 November 2013

Authors: Peter Stoutjesdijk and José ten Have

This report examines how biotechnology, nanotechnology and information and communications technology could be used to increase crop production and its sustainability in Australia.

The report was commissioned by the Department of Agriculture under the Commonwealth Government’s National Enabling Technologies Strategy.

Productivity analysis of key Commonwealth fisheries

Technical report 13.09Publication date: 6 December 2013

Authors: Mary Stephan and Simon Vieira

This report provides an indication of productivity trends in the Commonwealth’s most valuable commercial fisheries. These trends reflect how well these fisheries use inputs to produce outputs. When viewed over time, productivity trends can assist in the evaluation of a fishery’s economic performance.

Other reportsWeekly Australian climate, water and agricultural updatePublication date: Every Thursday

The weekly report contains information previously published in the Australian Climate and Agricultural Monthly Update. The combined weekly and monthly updates provide subscribers with improved access to up-to-date climate, water and commodity information in a single report.

Monitoring the recreational take of shark species of relevance to Commonwealth fisheriesPublication date: 26 September 2013

Authors: Katherine Cheshire, Peter Ward, Phil Sahlqvist and Rupert Summerson

The Recreational Fishing Industry Development Strategy study was partly a response to the listing in 2008 of several shark species under the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (also known as CMS or the Bonn Convention). This had the potential to affect recreational fishing in Australia through automatic listing under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999.

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Implementation of improvements to the National Livestock Identification System for sheep and goats—consultation regulation impact statementPublication date: 11 October 2013

This statement was prepared in order to seek stakeholder views on the costs and benefits of options for improving the current National Livestock Identification System for sheep and goats.

Prioritising targets for biological control of weeds—a decision support tool for policymakersPublication date: 18 October 2013

Authors: Bertie Hennecke, Lucy Arrowsmith and José ten Have

This report outlines a framework of the overall process of prioritising targets for biological control. It includes a decision support tool that enables policymakers to determine whether biological control is a suitable option for a proposed target species. The report is the result of a workshop with experts in the biocontrol and weed scientific field, state representatives and other relevant stakeholders.

Fishery status reports 2012Publication date: 29 October 2013

The 18th edition of this publication provides an independent evaluation of the biological status of fish stocks and the economic status of fisheries, managed or jointly managed by the Australian Government. The reports assess the biological status of the target and key by-product species in each Commonwealth fishery with respect to their biomass and the level of fish mortality. The economic performance of each fishery is assessed in terms of how they maximise net economic returns to the Australian community. The reports also reviews bycatch or broader environmental issues within the fisheries.

Review of selected regulatory burdens on agriculture and forestry businessesPublication date: 1 November 2013

Authors: Cheryl Gibbs, Keely Harris-Adams and Alistair Davidson

This report identifies areas of Australian Government regulation that impose a burden on rural businesses. Addressing these areas could improve the productivity and profitability of firms in Australia’s agriculture and forestry industries.

Illegal logging regulation: the affected community—analysis of regulated timber product imports and the affected communityPublication date: 4 November 2013

Authors: Mihir Gupta and Beau Hug

The report analyses imports of timber products to Australia in 2011 and 2012 to inform the compliance framework for the Illegal Logging Prohibition Act Amendment Regulation 2013. Key elements of the report are analyses of regulated timber product imports and the affected community. It establishes a baseline of timber imports and characteristics of importers, brokers and import suppliers who together with domestic processors form the community affected by the illegal logging regulation.

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147


Australian fisheries statistics 2012Publication date: 6 November 2013

This annual publication, funded by the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation and ABARES, is designed to meet the data needs of the fishing industry and fisheries managers, policymakers and researchers. Estimates of the gross value of fisheries production are also used to determine Commonwealth, state and territory fisheries research funding arrangements each year.

Australian grains: outlook for 2013–14 and industry productivityPublication date: 15 November 2013

Authors: Beth Deards, David Mobsby, Neil Thompson and Astrid Dahl

This report summarises the September 2013 editions of the Australian crop report and the grains section of Agricultural commodities.

Australian forest and wood products statistics: March and June quarters 2013Publication date: 20 November 2013

This issue includes updated Australian Bureau of Statistics trade data for the March and June quarters of 2013, as well as 2012–13 data for housing and forestry employment. Also included is a summary of the ABARES report Illegal logging regulation: the affected community.

Social indicators for Australia’s forest and wood products industries—discussion paperPublication date: 20 November 2013

Authors: Jacki Schirmer, Bill Binks, Robert Kancans and Nyree Stenekes

This discussion paper proposes a methodology for including social indicators in ABARES Australian forest and wood products statistics series. Methodology was developed based on a desktop review of social research examining Australia’s forest and wood products industries, available data on the social dimensions of the industries and a workshop with industry stakeholders in 2012.

Australian crop reportPublication date: 3 December 2013

This quarterly report forms a consistent and regular assessment of crop prospects for major field crops, forecasts of area, yield and production and a summary of seasonal conditions on a state-by-state basis.

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Executive Director Karen Schneider [email protected] (02) 6272 4636

Chief Economist Michael Harris [email protected] (02) 6272 2222

Chief Scientist Kim Ritman [email protected] (02) 6272 4671

Adaptation and Biosecurity

Assistant Secretary Helal Ahammad [email protected] (02) 6272 2366

Biosecurity and Adaptation Economics Edwina Heyhoe [email protected] (02) 6272 2109

Agricultural Risks Management Matthew Miller [email protected] (02) 6272 3527

Invasive Species Bertie Hennecke [email protected] (02) 6272 4263

Agricultural Adaptation Sciences Kate Harle [email protected] (02) 6272 3347

Agricultural Commodities and Trade

Assistant Secretary and

Chief Commodity Analyst Jammie Penm [email protected] (02) 6272 2030

Agricultural Trade Caroline Gunning-Trant [email protected] (02) 6272 2123

Agricultural Commodities Peter Collins [email protected] (02) 6272 2017

Commodities Data Dianne Stefanac [email protected] (02) 6272 2311

Research Engagement

and Outlook Anna Carr [email protected] (02) 6272 2287

Farm Analysis, Productivity and Social Sciences

Assistant Secretary Peter Gooday [email protected] (02) 6272 2138

Productivity Alistair Davidson [email protected] (02) 6272 2487

Social Sciences Saan Ecker [email protected] (02) 6272 5930

Infrastructure Tim Goesch [email protected] (02) 6272 2009

Farm Analysis and Survey Collection Milly Lubulwa [email protected] (02) 6272 2069

ABARES contacts


ABARES contacts

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Agricultural commodities December quarter 2013was designed and produced by the Department of Agriculture and the Agricultural Commodities team of ABARES.

Editors: Julia Church and Jenny Cook

Fisheries and Quantitative Sciences

Assistant Secretary Ilona Stobutzki [email protected] (02) 6272 4277

Domestic Fisheries and

Marine Environment Andrew Penney [email protected] (02) 6272 3726

International Fisheries James Larcombe [email protected] (02) 6272 3388

Fisheries Economics Robert Curtotti [email protected] (02) 6272 2014

Quantitative Sciences Belinda Barnes [email protected] (02) 6272 5374

Natural Resources

Assistant Secretary David Cunningham [email protected] (02) 6272 5954

Forest Sciences Steve Read [email protected] (02) 6272 5582

Forest Economics Beau Hug [email protected] (02) 6272 3929

Land Use and Management Phil Pritchard [email protected] (02) 6272 4193

Spatial Information Evert Bleys [email protected] (02) 6272 5627

Editing, Production,

Online and Design Lawrence Gardner [email protected] (02) 6272 2290

Library Resources Steve Benson [email protected] (02) 6272 4548

Media [email protected] (02) 6272 3232

Publication inquiries [email protected] (02) 6272 2010

daff.gov.au/abares

Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)

Postal address GPO Box 1563 Canberra ACT 2601

Switchboard +61 2 6272 2010

Facsimile +61 2 6272 2001

Email [email protected]

Web daff.gov.au/abares

Also in this series• Agricultural commodities, September 2012• Agricultural commodities, December 2012• Agricultural commodities, March 2013• Agricultural commodities, June 2013• Agricultural commodities, September 2013

The ‘Biosphere’ Graphic ElementThe biosphere is a key part of the department’s visual identity. Individual biospheres are used to visually describe the diverse nature of the work we do as a department, in Australia and internationally.

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