agri commodity reports for the week (13th - 17th december - 2010)

8/8/2019 Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (13th - 17th December - 2010)

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WEEKLYREPORTS

Global Research Limited

Where Market Can MoveNext Week...

A G R I

Spices down onspeculative selling !

| 13th Dec - 18th Dec. 2010



AGRI

Weekly Reports

w w w . c a p i t a l v i a . c o m

A g r i R e p o r t

2

Technical Analysis

JEERA

Fundamental Overview

Reasons for MovementJEERA DECLINES ON SPECULATIVE SELLING

he Jeera futures traded highly volatile on last week. Prices

opened the week on positive note on extended short covering.

TActive buying interest taking cues from spot market supported

the prices. However, prices fell drastically during closing hour on

speculative selling and futures ended the week in red. The Jeera

futures are projected to trade lower next week. Extended selling

pressure may pull down the prices. Production estimates given by

trade sources are also weighing on sentiments. However, recovery on

previous losses is expected during the next week but gains will be

limited. As per trade sources, production is estimated around 1.37 lakh

tons against 1.21 lakh tons last year. As per data released by Spices

Board, Jeera export target for year 2010-11 is around 40,000 tons up

by 11,000 tons from last year's target. Average daily prices at spot

market of Unjha were `13,575 per quintal on good demand. Arrivals

reported were around 2500-3000 bags (each bag= 60 Kg.). As per

Spices Board data, international price of Jeera in New York market

moved up to $3.64 per kg during the week ended 3rd December 2010

against $2.93 per kg quoted in the same period last year.

Daily Chart

Weekly Pivots

Script Levels

R3 16175

R2 15055R1 14350

PP 13935

S1 13230

S2 12815

S3 11695 F i g u r e : 1

J e e r a

Speculative sellingHigh production estimates

As we mentioned last week below thelevel of 14000, Jeera did our target of

13700 and even sustained below it.Last week Jeera was in bearish trendand it even closed near to its low. Forthe next week Jeera has resistance at14000 and support at 13000.

Market Overview

Jeera is in a consolidation phaseand one should use the strategy of

selling on higher levels. If in thecoming week Jeera sustains belowthe level of 13500 then we canexpect a level of 13100, and if itsustains above 14000 we can seethe level of 14300.

Strategy

3th - 18th Dec



AGRI

Weekly Reports


A g r i R e p o r t

GUARSEED

3

Technical Analysis


Reasons for MovementGUARSEED DECLINES ON INCREASED ARRIVALS

he Guar seed and Guar gum opened on a positive note last week

while it closed in red on account of the increasing arrivals across the

Tspot markets. The exporters are inactive across the spot markets

waiting for the spot prices to decrease further. Guar seed and gum futures

are likely to continue the bearish trend next week on account of the

increasing arrivals across the spot markets and the sluggish demand.

However any speculators activity can turn the direction of the market for a

while. The strong global demand from China and other major importers

shall support the prices in the medium turn. The expectation of increase in

the Crude oil inventory in China extends support to this factor. According to

trade sources, the total production in the current season is expected

around 80 lakh bags. The lower arrivals and subdued spot have opened up

the chances for reemergence of the export demand. As on 7th December

Guar seed inventory at NCDEX warehouses 40257 tons.

Daily Chart

Weekly Pivots

Script Levels

R3 2870

R2 2648

R1 2500

PP 2426

S1 2278

S2 2204

S3 1982 F i g u r e : 1

J e e r a

Increased arrivalsSluggish demand

G u a r s e e d w a s m o s t l y i nconsolidation last week but it was notable to sustain at higher levels, andwe saw good selling coming at thelast day of the week and it closed atits weekly low. For the next weekresistance in Guar seed is found at2470 and support at 2320.

Market Overview

For next week in Guar seed tradersshould go for selling at higher levelsstrategy, if Guar seed sustainsbelow the level of 2320 we can seethe level of 2260, and above 2470 itcan touch the level of 2520.

Strategy

3th - 18th Dec



AGRI

Weekly Reports


A g r i R e p o r t

SOYABEAN

4

Technical Analysis


Reasons for MovementSOYBEAN GAINS ON GLOBAL MARKET

he Soybean futures in Indian bourses opened on a firm note lastweek on short covering and taking cues from firm overseas

Tmarket. CBOT Soybean futures were trading higher ahead of

monthly crop report by US on Friday. Robust export demand for USSoybeans especially from China and anticipation of trimming USSoybean production forecast supported the global market. However, inlater part of the week, Indian market tumbled on speculative selling. Fallin share price of Ruchi soya—India's largest Soy oil producer—had alittle bearish impact on the market. Market participation was subduedon Thursday, which has seen with lower volumes. The Soybean futuresare expected to extend its bearish trend next week on follow throughselling. Weakness in overseas market is likely to exert pressure onIndian market. US traders booked profits on long position ahead ofUSDA's monthly crop report on Friday. As per market sources, USDA islikely to lower Soybean production and ending stock estimates for US.It is likely to lower output estimates for Brazil and Argentina as dry

weather condition is looming new crop planting in these two nations.China is likely to emerge as strong importer of soy products to meet itsdemand. On domestic front, fall in share price of Ruchi Soya and K SOils on allegations of insider trading may act as bearish factor for themarket. Spot markets are witnessing subdued trading. World oil andoilseeds market is looking for World Agriculture Supply DemandEstimates report scheduled for release at 7 PM IST.

Daily Chart

Weekly Pivots

Script Levels

R3 2404

R2 2312

R1 2251

PP 2220

S1 2159

S2 2128

S3 2036 F i g u r e : 1

J e e r a

Short coveringFirm overseas market

Last week Soybean was in adownward consolidation phase andwas not sustaining at higher levelsand it even closed below itsimportant support of 2200. For thenext week Soybean has resistance at2250 and support at 2184.

Market Overview

Soybean is in a consolidation phaseon charts and one should look forselling opportunities at higherlevels, if Soybean sustains belowthe level of 2184 we can see thelevel of 2150, and on the up side if itsustains above the level of 2250 wecan see Soybean at 2280 level.

Strategy

3th - 18th Dec



AGRI

Weekly Reports


A g r i R e p o r t

CHANA

5

Technical Analysis


CHANA WEAKENS ON SHORT SELLING

he Chana futures traded on a positive note in early trade last week

on extended short covering. But, later prices tumbled on fresh

Tselling backed by weak fundamental factors. Bumper crop

projection on higher acreage and favourable weather condition added

bearish sentiment to the market. Sharp decline in Kharif pulses prices

on higher arrivals also added pressure to Chana market. The Chana

futures are expected to extend its bearish trend on Friday on follow

through selling backed by weak fundamental factors. Higher acreage

and bumper crop projection is likely to weigh on the market. The all

India acreage which is likely to be out today will impact the market. The

Chana acreage has increased by 65% across Rajasthan where the

average productivity is high. The good sowing prospects and the

anticipation of higher yield is exerting pressure on the market. The

higher delivery to happen in the December contract shall also exert

pressure on the market now. According to trade sources the imports

from Australia which is expected round 2.5 lakh tons is expected to

decrease to 25,000 tons which will impact the market positively in short

term.

Daily Chart

Last week Chana did break theimportant support of 2475 andalmost did our target of 2440, Chanawas bearish for the most part of theweek but some short covering cameat the end of the week. For thecoming week Chana has resistanceat 2565 and support at 2410.

Market Overview

Overall trend of Chana is ofconsolidation and one should go forselling at higher levels strategy in it.For the coming week if Chanasustains below 2410 level we cansee it at 2375 and above 2565 wecan expect the level of 2590.

Strategy

Reasons for Movement

Weekly Pivots

Script Levels

R3 2708

R2 2597

R1 2528

PP 2486

S1 2417

S2 2375

S3 2264 F i g u r e : 1

J e e r a

Short sellingHigh yields anticipation

3th - 18th Dec



AGRI

Weekly Reports


A g r i R e p o r t

6

Symbol Exch-ange

ExpiryDate

CommodityName

Price Unit PreviousClose

Open LowHigh Close Qty.Traded

Net OpenInterest

WeeklyTurnOver(Rs. in Lakhs)

JEERAUNJHA NCDEX 20-Dec-10 JEERA RS/QUINTAL 14987 14916 1387115026 13955 38352 -1032 12861 49,051.24

Weekly Market Update

PPRMLGKOC NCDEX 20-Dec-10 PEPPER RS/QUINTAL 22831 22888 2158521363 21585 29576 -1246 5131 60,369.92

TMCFGRNZM NCDEX 20-Dec-10 TURMERIC RS/QUINTAL 14926 15098 1452415366 14600 20150 -326 4635 27,674.04

GARSEDJDR NCDEX 20-Dec-10 GUARSEED RS/QUINTAL 2568 2585 24002622 2400 1839800 -168 170660 425,925.36

GARGUMJDR NCDEX 20-JAN-11 GUARGUM RS/QUINTAL 6387 6450 60366643 6036 141250 -35134985 83,707.98

CHARJDDEL NCDEX 20-JAN-11 CHANA RS/QUINTAL 2614 2620 25032625 2519 345480 -95 110840 78,466.87

SYBEANIDR NCDEX 20-JAN-10 SOYBEAN RS/QUINTAL 2340 2344 22362350 2237 544180 -103 233520 104,202.26

SYOREFIDR NCDEX 20-JAN-11 SOY OILREFINED

RS/10KGS 602.1 603 591.75606.95 592.2 869580 -9.9 129890 449,473.91

RMSEEDJPR NCDEX 20-JAN-11 RAPE MUS-TARD SEED

RS/20KGS 592.05 591.5 562.1595 562.5 339870 -29.55 92500 82,779.09

COCUDAKL NCDEX 20-JAN-11 COTTONSEED

OILCAKE

RS/QUINTAL 1048 1050 9941054 994 276280 -54 75650 24,431.84

GURCHMUZR NCDEX 20-Dec-10 GUR RS/40KGS 968 970 966985 971 32080 3 16020 6,996.71

POTATO NCDEX 18- Mar -11 POTATO RS/QUINTAL 598.7 597 592621.5 606.9 37800 8.2 20580 2,109.48

KAPASSRNR NCDEX 29-Apr-11 KAPAS RS./20KG 728.5 728.7 698.7729.5 702 16242 -26.5 6419 20,464.14

WHTSMQDELI NCDEX 20-Dec-10 WHEAT RS/QUINTAL 1290.8 1292.8 1277.61276 9940 5210 -13.2 9370 1,175.60

MENTHA OIL MCX 31-DEC-10 MENTHA OIL RS/KG 1268.5 1265.1 1069.31268 1069.3 29124 -199.2 4359 123205.63

CARDAMOM MCX 15- Jan -11 CARDAMOM RS/KG 1294.6 1332 1268.21384 1319.3 9409 24.7 1385 11826.37

3th - 18th Dec



AGRI

Weekly Reports


A g r i R e p o r t

7

Weekly Market Update

EXCHANGE COMMODITY CLOSING PRICE % CHANGE

NCDEX JEERA

NCDEX PEPPER

NCDEX TURMERIC

NCDEX GUARSEED

NCDEX GUARGUM

NCDEX CHANA

NCDEX SOYBEAN

NCDEX SOY OIL REFINED

NCDEX RAPE MUSTARD SEED

NCDEX COTTONSEED OILCAKE

NCDEX GUR

NCDEX POTATO

NCDEX KAPAS

NCDEX WHEAT

NCDEX MENTHA OIL

NCDEX CARDAMOM

13955

21585

14600

2400

6036

2519

2237

592.2

562.5

994

971

606.9

702

1277.6

1069.3

1319.3

-6.89

-5.46

-2.18

-6.54

-5.50

-3.63

-4.40

-1.64

-4.99

-5.15

0.31

1.37

-3.64

-1.02

-15.70

1.91

Weekly Gainers

COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE % CHANGE

CARDAMOM

POTATO

GUR

15-DEC-10

18-MAR-11

20-JAN-11

1319.3

606.9

971

1.91

1.37

0.31

Weekly Losers

COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE % CHANGE

MENTHA OIL

JEERA

20-DEC-10

20-JAN-11

1069.30

13955

-15.70

-6.89

GUAR SEED 20-JAN-11 2400 -6.54

3th - 18th Dec



Weekly Pivots

JEERA(JAN)

Scripts R3

AGRI

Weekly Reports


A g r i R e p o r t

8

R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

PEPPER(DEC)

TURMERIC(DEC)

GUARSEED(JAN)

GUARSGUM(JAN)

CHANA(JAN)

SOYBEAN(JAN)

REFINED SOYA OIL(JAN)

MUSTARD(JAN)

COTTONSEEDOIL CAKE (JAN)

GUR(JAN)

POTATO(MAR)

KAPAS

(APR)

MENTHA OIL(DEC)

CARDAMOM(JAN)

16594.00 15439.00 14697.00 14284.00 13542.00 13129.00 11974.00

21067.00 21289.00 21437.00 21511.00 21659.00 21733.00 21955.00

16514.00 15672.00 15136.00 14830.00 14294.00 13988.00 13146.00

2918.00 2696.00 2548.00 2474.00 2326.00 2252.00 2030.00

7452.33 6845.33 6440.67 6238.33 5833.67 5631.33 5024.33

2793.00 2671.00 2595.00 2549.00 2473.00 2427.00 2305.00

2502.33 2388.33 2312.67 2274.33 2198.67 2160.33 2046.33

627.37 612.17 602.18 596.97 586.98 581.77 566.57

639.00 606.10 584.30 573.20 551.40 540.30 507.40

1134.00 1074.00 1034.00 1014.00 974.00 954.00 894.00

1012.00 993.00 982.00 974.00 963.00 955.00 936.00

665.80 636.30 621.60 606.80 592.10 577.30 547.80

771.67 740.87 721.43 710.07 690.63 679.27 648.47

1532.93 1334.23 1201.77 1135.53 1003.07 936.83 738.13

1555.43 1439.63 1379.47 1323.83 1263.67 1208.03 1092.23

3th - 18th Dec



Disclaimer

AGRI

Weekly Reports


A g r i R e p o r t

9

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RULES

3th - 18th Dec



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agri commodity reports for the week (13th - 17th december - 2010)

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