AGILE ESTIMATION & RELEASE PLANNING

Alok Guha, CSM

PRODUCT BACKLOG

ESTIMATE EACH ITEM (PART 1)

How long it is going to take ?

- 1 hour- 1 day- 1 week- Forever…

T1

ESTIMATE EACH ITEM (PART 2)

is T2 T1Likely to take longer than

?

HOW LONGER ?

=T2

?

?

?

T1 T1

T1 T1 T1

T1T1T1 T1

T2 = 3 TIMES T1 ? MAY BE YES..

=T2

?

✔

?

T1 T1

T1 T1 T1

T1T1T1 T1

LETS CREATE AN UNIT..

=T1 2

=T2 6

then

THIS UNIT IS CALLED “STORY POINTS”

How long a user story will take (effort)

Influenced by complexity, uncertainty, risk, volume of work, etc

.Relative values are what is important: A login screen is a 2.

A search feature is an 8.

Basic math properties should hold 5+5 = 10

TWO BIG ADVANTAGES TO STORY POINTS

Story points are additive, time-based estimates may not be.

Story points help avoid problems with unit confusion

ESTIMATE EVERY TASK..

5

2 8

5

5

8

2

5

YES, YOU SHOULD ESTIMATES EVERY TASK..

User stories will change anytime.

Everyone estimates… you, me, customer..

Points are not unit of time.

Lets be consistent than accurate.

Your estimates must include uncertainty.

Honesty is still the best policy.

LETS PRIORITIZE

5

2 8

3

5

8

2

5

VALUE YOUR TASKS..

5

2 8

3

5

8

2

5✪

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✪✪

✪✪

✪✪

✪ ✪✪

✪

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ARRANGE

3

2 85

3

8

2 5✪

✪✪

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✪

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PRIORITIES…

Its very important to consider customer priorities.

And customer is the GOD, who is having final call.

Priorities changes over time.

Technical decencies are not irrelevant.

PLANNING POKER

An iterative approach to estimating

Steps Each estimator is given a deck of cards, each card has a valid

estimate written on it.

Customer/Product owner reads a story and it’s discussed briefly.

Each estimator selects a card that’s his or her estimate.

Cards are turned at the same time.

Discuss differences (especially outliers).

Re-estimate until estimates converge.

GENERAL RULES

Planning poker combines expert opinion, analogy, and disaggregation into an enjoyable approach to estimating that results in quick but reliable estimates.

Participants in planning poker include all of the developers on the team Planning Poker.

The product owner / business owner / business analyst participates in planning poker but does not estimate

GENERAL RULES

At the start of planning poker, each estimator is given a deck of cards.

Each card has written on it one of the valid estimates 0, ½, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, and 100

You may also use a ? And {coffee} card Planning Poker

LETS PLAY A GAME !!

ESTIMATE THESE..Product backlog Items Estimate

Read and understand a densely written 5-page research paper about agile software development in an academic journal.

Your uncle owns a grocery store and now wants to sell over the internet too. Write a basic product backlog for him covering what he’ll need his website to do.

Recruit, interview, and hire a new member for your team.

Create a 60-minute presentation about agile software development for your coworkers.

Wash and wax your boss’ Volkswagen.

Read (and understand) a 150-page book on agile software development.

Write a 5-page summary of this conference for your Manager

ACCESS VELOCITY

Points = Efforts involved

Duration = ?

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

5

3

2

2

8

2

3

1

5

1

5

5

2

2

2

3

2

2

2

3

2

8

2

10 14 16 18 11 17

VELOCITY

10 14 16 18 11 17

ACCESS VELOCITY

What’s our average Velocity likely to be?

ACCESS VELOCITY

Planned Velocity is useful only until we have real data - just an educated guess.

“Yesterday’s weather” is more important than average

Iterations must create production-quality increments

Velocity is specific for a team.

RESOURCE SCHEDULE

Say planned velocity is 9.

Backlog points are 61.

So resource/candidate schedule will be

61/9 = 7 iterations

2

2

1

2

2

8

1

5

1

1

1

1

5

1

1

2

2

2

2

2

1

5

3

1

9 9 9 11 9 9

INSPECT & ADAPT

Plans are not important, Planning is.

RELEASE BURNDOWN CHART

CONCLUDING..

This is just a framework - there are multiple variants

The customer is a partner during estimation and planning

Don’t try to change the world, change your plans

THANKS !! GRACIAS !!