african youth and hope in leaders?

Why are African Youth Losing Hope in their Leaders?

[What the Afrobarometer Findings Say]

By Franklin Oduro, CDD-Ghana

Outline of Presentation

What are the manifestations of African Youth Losing

hope in African leaders?

- Indicators from Africa?

- Indicators from Ghana?

What may explains these outcomes?

Concluding Thoughts

What is Afrobarometer?

An independent pan-African survey research projectthat measures citizen attitudes on democracy andgovernance, the economy, civil society, and othertopics.

Started in 12 countries in 1999, expanded to 35 Africancountries in Round 5 (2011-2013).

Goal: To give the public a voice in policymaking byproviding high-quality public opinion data topolicymakers, policy advocates, civil societyorganizations, academics, news media, donors andinvestors, and ordinary Africans.

National Partners in each country conduct the survey.In Ghana, the Afrobarometer Round 6 survey wasconducted by the Center for DemocraticDevelopment (CDD-Ghana).

Countries Afrobarometer covers

Methodology

Nationally representative sample of adult citizens

o All respondents are randomly selected.

o Sample is distributed across regions and urban-ruralareas in proportion to their share in the nationalpopulation.

o Every adult citizen has an equal chance of beingselected.

Face-to-face interviews in the language of therespondents choice.

Standard questionnaire allows comparisons acrosscountries and over time.

Sample size of 1,200 (or 2,400) with a margin of error of2% (or 2.8%) at a 95% confidence level.

Afrobarometer Findings on African Youth and Public Life

Data drawn from Five rounds of surveys (Circa 1999 Circa 2012) in over 30 countries, and using a youth age range of 18-29, present a mix picture of African youth in public affairs;

o On the positive side, Fifty-six percent (56%) African youth said they were somewhat or very interested in public affairs;

Highest in: Egypt (78%); Tanzania (77%);

Moderate: Ghana (55%)

Lowest in: Madagascar 35%; Cote dIvoire 29%

Equally, 56% of the youth in surveyed countriesoccasionally or frequently talk about/discussedpolitics.

o North African countries have the highest proportion ofyouth who discuss politics, averagely 73%.

Significant number, 34%, of the youth never discusspolitical matters


Averagely, 55% of Africas youth voted in the lastelections held in their countries.

o Regional blocs rating:

East Africans highest, 65% say they voted;

West Africans, 57% voted;

Southern Africans, 50% voted;

North Africans lowest, 49% say they voted;


Averagely 34% attended campaign rallies or meetingsa year preceding the survey.

23% tried to persuade others to vote for a certain partyor candidate.

o Regional blocs rating:

East Africa:51% attended campaign rallies or meetings25% persuaded others to vote for certain party orcandidate


West Africa:43% attended campaign rallies or meetings28% persuaded others to vote for a certaincandidate or party.

Southern Africa:

33% attended campaign rallies or meetings

22% persuaded others to vote for a certain party or candidate

North Africa lowest:

12% attended rallies or meetings

11% tried to influence other voters


On the negative side, the degree of African Youthparticipation in community association andorganizations is very low.

Survey of 9 countries with history of multipartydemocracy

o Averagely, 14% are active members and/or leadersof community organization

o Tanzania (26%) and Ghana (20%) have the highestproportions

o Namibia, Zimbabwe, Botswana and Lesotho havethe lowest


On whether youth in Africa made efforts to contactleaders, the findings are not encouraging.

o Averagely, less than half of African youth madecontacts with their formal local leaders (i.e. localgovernment councillors) in the year preceding thesurvey.

East Africa has the highest contact; averagely 6in 10 (59%)

Southern and North Africa, averagely 45%

West Africa had the lowest contact of 29%


We note that while African Youth are interested in

public Affairs and interested/discuss Politics, and

vote in elections; they are less enthusiastic to

engage political leaders and participate in

community meetings and association work.

Why?

Remarks

Are African Youth Losing Hope inLeaders? What are the indicators?

Perhaps, African Youth are losing hope, trust, or

confidence in the political system?

Is it really the case that African Youth are losing

hope/confidence or trust in their leaders?

If So how do we know that?

Afrobarometer findings may help us to understandand explain this fundamental question as we are ableto glean insights through some statisitcal analysis.

That is, a regression analysis to predict the nature and

significance of the independent variables below

o Bad Economic and Living Condition Index;o President Disregard for the Rule of Law Index;o Perceived Official Corruption Index;o Bad Govt Economic Performance Management Index;o Bad Govt Social Service Delivery Performance Index;o Corruption increased over past year;o Officials go unpunished;o Leaders serve their own political ambition;o Urban residents;o Female respondents; ando Level of education

On a dependent variable (Mistrust of leaders Index) - aproxy for loss of Hope or Confidence in leaders.


Since we do not have complete set of R6 survey data on allcountries, we use information provided by Ghanaians aged18-35 years as proxy for African youth to conduct thestatistical analysis.

o Descriptive Findings (Economic Factors)

Majority of Ghanaian youth (80%) felt their presenteconomic conditions were very or fairly bad.

Majority (68%) also decribed their present livingconditions as very or fairly bad.

Compared to 12 months ago, 53% felt economicconditions are much worse or worse.


o Descriptive Findings (Political Factors)

Majority of Ghanaian youth (73%) felt that officials oftenor always go unpunished for crimes.

They (73%) also felt that leaders serve their own politicalinterest/ambition.

Only minority said the President ignores the laws of theland (21%) and also ignores parliament (21%).

Majority (76%) believed that corruption increased duringthe past year.


o Descriptive Findings (Political Factors )

Specifically, majority of the youth perceived somemost or all of the following leaders to be involved incorruption:

Parliamentarians (89%); Judges and magistrates (89%) President and officials in his office (87%); Local government councillors (87%); and Metropolitan/Municipal/District Chief Executives (87%).


o Descriptive Findings (Political Factors )

Most of the youth have little or no trust at all (i.e.mistrust) for the following leaders:

Parliamentarians (65%);Elected local government council (65%);The President (62%); andCourts of law (57%).


o Descriptive Findings (Economic Performance Factors)

Majority of Ghanaian youth rated governmentperformance as very or fairly bad in the following areas:

Economic management (72%);Creating jobs (77%);Reducing prices (82%); andNarrowing income gap (76%).


o Descriptive Findings (Service Delivery Performance Factors)

Similarly, majority evaluated government negatively indelivering on the following:

Providing reliable electricity (75%); Fighting coruption (72%); Providing water and sanitation services (66%); Addressing educational needs (62%); Improving basic health services (60%); and Reducing crime (56%).


o Descriptive Findings (Other Factors)

When asked whether the country was heading in the

right or wrong direction, majority of Ghanaian youth

(80%) said the country was heading in the wrong

direction.



o Regression Findings

The regression results show that mistrust of leaders issignificantly driven by the following factors in order ofthe magnitude of impact:

Poor Govt Social Service Delivery; Perceived Official Corruption; Poor Govt Economic Performance Management; Perception that the country going is in the wrong

direction; Perception that leaders serve their own political ambition; Perception that corruption has increased over past year; Level of education

o Interpretation of Regression Findings

Though majority of the youth rated economic andpersonal living conditions negatively, these factors donot appear to matter much or influence their loss ofconfidence in their leaders.

Rather, they are more concerned about howgovernment manages the (a) economy (including keymacro economic variables that affect livingstandards); and (b) pulbic/social service delivery;(including the fight against official corruption).


o Interpretation of Regression Findings

Also, arresting the challenges that make themconclude that the country is in the wrong direction;and leaders changing their attitude that portray themas self-serving representatives are also important tothem.

Indeed, while living in urban locations and/or genderdo not matter, level of education does (i.e. the higherthe education level of the youth the more they mistrustleaders) an indication that the youth clealy knowwhat they are saying and they are not dumb.


Concluding Thoughts

We know Africa is experiencing unprecedented

increase in youth population;

We also know that this youthful growth presents

opportunity for greater economic growth;

But the youth bulge is marked by unemployment,

poverty and lack of education, which threaten

political instability and national security.

How do we deal with this dilemma?

Opportunities exist to create democratic space for

the youth to be involved in the democratic

processes:

Youth voice and engagement matter and must be

fundamental;

Concluding Thoughts

But the youth must seize the opportunity to engage

and be active participant in todays decisionmaking process;

Africa may be rising; but is African youth rising and

taking their rightful places?

Concluding Thoughts

african youth and hope in leaders?

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