africa new · pdf fileellipsoid: psad56 major axis: 6378388 ellipticity: 0.08199188998 prime...
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Africa New EnergiesAnnual General Meeting – Sep 14
Overview
Research and Development
Hired by a UN affiliate to assist Namibia to achieve Energy Independence
Acreage Acquisition
22,000 km2 and Petroleum Agreement secured
State-of-the-art technology
Deploy multiple layers of remote and surface exploration techniques
Mathematical Algorithms
Reduce exploration costs to as little as 1/10 of conventional budgets
AfricaNewEnergies
Who we are
Stephen Larkin - CEO & Co-founder CA with a deep understanding of both technology and finance Created an exploration algorithm with Brendon Raw Advised the Namibian government on energy self-sufficiency
Brendon Raw - CTO & Co-founder IT developer with RAD experience in BP and Trafigura Invented the Prophecy Virtual Smart Grid Solar System with Stephen Seed investor in Quirk, Africa’s largest digital marketing agency
Peter Hutchison – Director and Corporate Development BP regional geologist for Africa at the age of 26 after Magnus Discovery Senior executive at BP and VP of exploration for BP’s Canadian and Egypt operations Made multiple discoveries as an entrepreneur using satellite HLI technology
Richard Jones - Legal Director Head of Legal Department in BP Exploration First Russian country manager for BP Drafted ANE’s Namibian Petroleum Exploration Licence Agreement
Measurable effects on the surface Surface exploration
10% - 40%
Indicates depthof resource
Indicates possible fieldedges
Up to 66% for frontierareas such as EL68
66% after successfulstratigraphic well
$7
$30
$1,000
$25,000
$30,000
AfricaNewEnergies
Our technology The integrated approach
Satellite
Airborne Survey
Radiometric
Geochemical Sampling
Passive Telluric
Probabilityof discovery
10% - 40%
Indicates depthof resource
Indicates possible fieldedges
Up to 66% for frontierareas such as EL68
66% after successfulstratigraphic well
Typical costper km2
$7
$30
$1,000
$25,000
$30,000
Tripling the probability of success at 1/10th of the cost
$20m
$40m
$60m
$80m
$100m
$120m
$140m
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Rig mobilisation$8m quoted
Exp
lora
tio
n E
xpen
dit
ure
Probability of Discovery (Px)
Traditional
Our method
Iterative process –radiometrics, ground
tellurics, geochemistry, slim
hole drilling
Drill 3 wells, expect 2 discoveries –
approach 80% probability once
multiple discoveries
Satellite and airborne survey
Drill 4 wells, expect 1 discovery at Px 20% -
25%
3D seismic
2D seismic
Surface Manifestations of Hydrocarbon Microseepage
Geochemical reading shows that paraffin levels are >100 times the expected
background readings
Radiometric readings show a 50% drop-off of
Potassium40 coinciding with the satellite edge of the
field
Visual evidence of bleaching of red earths
AfricaNewEnergies
Using Gore Sorber
1000 0 1000 2000 3000
metres
Scale 1:50000
GORE-SORBER Exploration SurveyR
W.L. GORE & ASSOCIATES, INC.100 CHESAPEAKE BOULEVARD
ELKTON,MD 21921
USA
(410) 392-7600
Petroproduccion Ecuador
Sansahuari-Cuyabeno Prospect, Ecuador
Plate 1: Singue-1 Oil-like Signature (Model 2)
DATE DRAWN: November 15, 2001
REV. DATE:
DRAWN BY: RF
REV. #:
ORIG. CAD:
PROJECT NUMBER:
SITE CODE:
GORE-SORBER
GORE-SORBER
GORE-SORBER
Exploration Survey
Module
IS REG. PAT. & T.M. OFF.
IS A REGISTERED SERVICE MARK OF W.L. GORE & ASSOCIATES
IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF W.L. GORE & ASSOCIATES
2001 W.L. GORE & ASSOCIATESC
THIS DRAWING AND ANY ATTACHMENTS HAVE BEEN PRODUCED FOR THE SOLE USE OF THE RECIPIENT AND MUST NOT BE USED, REUSED, REPRODUCED, MODIFIED OR COPIED IN ANY MANNER WITHOUT THE PROPER WRITTEN APPROVAL OF W.L. GORE & ASSOCIATES. THIS DRAWING MAY CONTAIN CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY INFORMATION OF W.L. GORE & ASSOCIATES. ANY UNAUTHORIZED USE OF THIS DRAWING IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
NOTES & DEFINITIONS
Geochemical Model: The geochemical difference in surface soil gas signature between
analogous production and background (dry) areas, as defined by groups of model set samples.
This model is used to classify membership of the survey grid samples based on the degree of
similarity to the geochemical signatures of 'production' and 'background'.
Probability Value: The percent probability that the surface geochemical character matches
that modeled over a producing reservoir(s); or in the case of a frontier survey, model set samples
which are selected as exhibiting petroleum-like character.
Anomalous Threshold: The modeled probability value at or above which the geochemical feature
is most likely indicative of petroliferous accumulations
Geochemical Feature: Any collection of contoured surface values which seem to exhibit a common
influence and which may include probability values above and below the anomalous threshold.
NOTE:
This map illustrates a computer-generated contour surface of probability values calculated for each
sample location. Probability values are most accurate AT THE SAMPLED LOCATIONS. The contour
surface developed between the data points is an estimate of the probability and is subject to
uncertainty, which increases with distance from each sample location. Further resolution
of the contoured surface may be appropriate through additional soil gas sampling depending on
the end-use of the data.
15.017.520.022.525.027.530.032.535.037.540.042.545.047.550.052.555.057.560.062.565.067.570.072.575.077.580.082.585.087.590.092.595.0
Threshold value=82
Probability%
0 100
0
30
60
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
Frequency Distribution for Survey Samples
Probability Value
Fre
qu
ency
Thr
esho
ld v
alue
PROJECTION INFORMATION
Projection: PSAD56 / UTM zone 18N
Ellipsoid: PSAD56
Major axis: 6378388
Ellipticity: 0.08199188998
Prime meridian: 0
Projection Method: TransverseMercator
Coordinate Units: m (=1 meters)
Local Datum: PSAD56toWGS84(2)
dX, dY, dZ: -270, 188, -388
Rx, Ry, Rz: 0, 0, 0
Scale: 0
LEGEND
Probability ValueSample Number
Oil well
Dry well
1000
5000
1001
0000
1001
5000
1002
0000
1002
5000
1000500010010000
1001500010020000
10025000
355000 360000
355000 360000
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
Probability%
OIL Well
DRY Well
AfricaNewEnergies
Ground tellurics
AfricaNewEnergies
Stratigraphic drilling vs conventional
Metric Traditional Modified slim well
Time to mobilise rig 1- 4 years to onshore Africa 3-6 months
Cost of mobilisation and drilling, 2,600 meter well
Mob/Demob = $8,000k Modification = $0k
Drilling = $10,000k Total = $18,000k
Mob/Demob = $250kModification = $150k
Drilling =$2,850kTotal =$3,200k
Timelines Wait – 2-4 year yearsMobilisation – 6 months
Drilling 28 daysTotal – minimum 3 years
Wait – 3 monthsMobilisation 2 weeks
Drilling 150 daysTotal - maximum 1 year
Quality of data Mud log Core library
Completion options 8 inch diameter = completion for production on discovery
3 inchesCan ream to 4.5 inch
Modest Production 1 7/8 inch casing
What do 22,000 square kilometres look like?
Why Namibia? The Infrastructure
AfricaNewEnergies
A bit of history Progress to date
Research and
Development
(UN study)£1.4 million raisedSatellite indicates
potential giant provinceFundraising
startsMay 2011 toApril 2012 April 2013 Sept 2013
Feb 2012 toApril 2013
June 2013 to April 2012
Oct 2013 to Sep 2014
Applied forExclusive License
Exclusive License awarded22,000 sq. km
Completed SatelliteSurvey of the entire
of resourceArea >1.6 bn barrels
Source of funds and use of proceeds Progress to date
Founders R&D -04 - 11, £704k,
27%
Founders loans -11 - 14, £324k,
12%
Equity - seed capital round,
£105k, 4%
Equity - second capital round, £1,256k, 48%
Consulting sales, £43k, 1%
3rd party creditors, £104k,
4%
Shareholder loans, £97k, 4%
Sources of funds - £2.633m
Research and development written off, £704k, 27%
License commitments,
£307k, 12%Exploration costs,
local office and program set up costs, £1,173k,
44%
Corporate finance, legal and
professional costs, £164k, 6%
O&M, £285k, 11%
Use of funds - £2.633m
What is next? Current objectives
Raise estimated £8.5MFull tensor gravity gradiometryProspectivity synthesis
April 2015 to March 2016
Sep 2014 to Apr 2014
Raise £2MComplete geochemical analysisGround magnetotelluricsComplete and synthesis pre-drilling activitiesCompetent persons report
By 2017
Achieve share priceappreciation multi-foldCommercial development andmonetization options
Drilling programme decisions & approvalsDrill first exploration wellsTarget early discovery/(ies)
April 2016 to March 2017
Value per barrel based on progressive resource classification
Contingent PUD to
to Proven Proven
Undeveloped Producing
Value < 3 Value doubles
Current prospective Contingent Proven Undeveloped Proven producing
Unrisked mean prospective scenario 0.021 4.14 11.06 25.23
0.021 4.14
11.06
25.23
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
Exp
ecte
d s
har
e p
rice
per
bar
rel
Nam
ibia
n f
isca
l ter
ms
and
loca
l ext
ract
ion
co
sts
Proven Undeveloped
to Proven Producing Value X 2
Prospective to Contingent
200 – fold increase in
value=
ANE focus
Contingent to Proven
Undeveloped
Value X 3
AfricaNewEnergies
To be raised & use of proceeds
3rd Raise – 12.5% of the company post valuation - £13.3m £1,650k
Rentals - years 3,4 £200k
Pre-drilling program - 12- 24 months £1,000k
G&A + Local office costs - years 1 & 2 £450k
4th Raise - Strat wells on existing basin £8,500k
Rentals - years 5 & 6 £400k
Drilling 3 stratigraphic wells - program - 12- 24 months £6,000k
G&A + Local office costs - years 3 & 4 £2,100k
Exploration, appraisal & initial production £25,000k
Purchase truck mounted rig £8,000k
12 exploratory wells £12,000k
Completion - 3 wells £3,000k
G&A + Local office costs - years 1 - 4 £3,000k
AfricaNewEnergies
Competitive position – strengths and weaknesses of fundraising strategy
Strengths
Require 1/10th of the capex – means less dilution
3X more likely to strike
No logistics capex until $800m of free cash
Uniquely positioned to exploit tax advantages in the UK – EIS & R&D tax credits
Access to Crowdfunding
Ultralow burn rates and license commitments
Low valuation relative to our peers
Weaknesses
Poor market sentiment
Frontier acreage
New technology
New management team
Cannot access institutional funding means reliance on network of personal investors for funding
AfricaNewEnergies
How will we raise our funds
Risked Valuation Peer group comparison
32.9
15.0
14.1
13.2
13.8
9.4
7.3
6.4
3.8
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0
Borders and Southern
Tower Resources
Range Resources
Azonto Petroleum
Frontier Resources
Energulf Resources
Africa New Energies
Bahamas Petroleum
Chariot Oil & Gas
ANE vs its Peers Enterprise Value / Risked resources
US$c/boe
Risked Valuation Peer group comparison
3.3
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.4
1.7
1.6
1.3
1.3
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
Borders and Southern
Chariot Oil & Gas
Azonto Petroleum
Frontier Resources
Tower Resources
Range Resources
Bahamas Petroleum
Energulf Resources
Africa New Energies
Enterprise Value / Unrisked resources US$c/boe
Upside to downside ratio The EIS effect
AIM investor - UK taxpayer Offshore investor EIS marginal rate taxpayer
Downside (100.0%) (100.0%) (38.5%)
Upside 72% 100% 100%
Upside/downside ratio relative to AIM 100% 139% 361%
(100%)
(50%)
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
AfricaNewEnergies
• Commodity trading
opportunities
• Potential to underwrite
investment with loan
against founder’s shares in
Biogas Plant
• Farm-in using R&D tax
credits
What other funding strategies are we considering?
Three commodity opportunities using UK tax position Commodity Trading
Richards Bay Coal Terminal deal with existing shareholder
Could yield £1 million profits per year if deal goes through
Black Economic Empowerment crude supply deal
Could yield £2 million in profits
Long term supply of hydrocarbons
Vast potential where government relationships could help the company broker a deal
between two governments
Multi-million potential
None have any financial downside, but all carry high execution risk
DEALS OFFER STRATEGIC SUPPLIER RELATIONSHIPS ON DISCOVERY TO THE COMPANY AS WELL AS PRE-PRODUCTION CASHFLOWS
Leveraging biogas assets to raise £2 million in debt Biogas Loan
Brendon Raw and Stephen Larkin have shares in a biogas project that could yield £1.5 million - £2 million of underwriting debt to expedite the next round of funding
Proposed deal is in the form of a convertible debenture, which acts as an underwriting instrument for the EIS equity raise
Creates a UK government revenue stream to repay debt over 6 years – exposure reduced to £2 million with dividend stream to protect it in case of underwriting loan not repaid
Target dilution – around 5% of share capital
Mitigating exploration investment risk Biogas Underwriting Loan
Opportunity to invest in multiple repeatable biogas projects
3.5MW planning permission near Bradford – with intention to increase by further 1.5MW BR & SL will own 17%
Rare RHI planning permission on national gas grid – enough gas for 3,000 households
Innovative risk management
Government guaranteed feed in tariff
Feedstock contract with landowner and Two Sisters – largest producer of chickens in the country – 50k tonnes chicken manure per annum
Insurance guarantees on performance
Attractive financing options
5 MW – dividends to BR and SL = £0.4m per annum
EIS approval possible – only £10 million project in the UK that will still qualify for EIS approval – funds are long capital and short projects
Superb dividend yields
UK Continental Shelf R&D Tax Credit Play R&D Tax Credits
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Corporate tax - small company Marginal tax rate - UKCS - post 1993 Marginal rate - UKCS - pre-1993
Tax rate
Britain’s declining production R&D Tax Credits
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mb
pd
of
bar
rels
per
day
UK Production of Crude Oil vs Consumption
UK consumption UK production
Means UK’s competitive advantage is also declining R&D Tax Credits
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Exports - % of consumption 69.5% 59.3% 47.8% 47.3% 33.3% 16.8% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Imports - % of consumption 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -6.8% -3.4% -7.6% -8.2% -14.3% -27.2% -37.6% -42.4%
Oil exports/imports as % of GBP 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.1% -0.3% -0.6% -1.1% -1.1%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
-80.0%
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
%’a
ge
Imports/Exports as % of UK crude consumption
The prize – UKCS R&D tax credit UK farm-in partner
Step 1 – claim back £20k from historic expenditure on R&D
Step 2 - claim £0.5 million from next round of funding
Step 3 –First prize - to find R&D partner paying 62% or 81% marginal tax – who is deemed to
be SME
Fewer than 500 employees
Less than EUR100 million of turnover
Owned by consortium of private equity players – each with less than 25%
If possible consortium player make a profit on tax credits regardless of outcome of
exploration program
Will need further EIS investment as not all expenses (such as travel and drill-rig hire will get
full tax write-offs
Could take up to 18 months and there is executive risk, but little financial risk
UK Continental Shelf R&D Tax Credit Play R&D Tax Credits
SME - lossmaking SME - profitableLarge corporate -
UKCS - post 93Large corporate -
UKCS - pre 93SME - UKCS post
93SME - UKCS pre
93
%'age recovered from £1 of R&D expendture 32.6% 45.0% 80.6% 105.3% 139.5% 182.3%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
140.0%
160.0%
180.0%
200.0%
Per
cen
tage
cas
h r
eco
very
of
qu
alif
yin
g R
&D
ex
pen
dit
ure
%'age recovered from qualifying R&D expenditure
AfricaNewEnergies
ANE’s 20,000 other partners
Why
Why
The electricity effect
AfricaNewEnergies
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ANE’s Carbon Trust - universal electricity access roll-outNamibia - 2000 - 2050
No electricity Basic access to light, cell phone and radio Limited electricity - no heated water
Electricity - heated water - no solar Electricity + solar water heating Electricity + solar water heating + PV
U-BEAP has an immediate and dramatic impact on electricity access, with the entire population getting minimum access of lighting, insulation, mobile phone charging and a radio within two years of the
The revolving carbon fund and pre-paid solar intervention eventually result in 70% of residential customers reducing their consumption by at least 50% from solar, insulating them from
AfricaNewEnergies
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Nam
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Namibian electricity sector carbon emissions - 2000 - 2050Coal-fired + imports vs ANE's Natural Gas scenario
Historic
Nampower coalfired scenario
Pinpoint NG combined cycle with solarreplacement scenario
Note that a second plant, would lower carbon emissions further, as it is assumed that the
AfricaNewEnergies
Questions