AFGHANISTAN Office of Afghanistan & Pakistan Affairs (OAP A)

REQUEST FOR CATEGORICAL EXCLUSION ~~~ (SUPPLEMENTARY) (CJ/ i/ /u; I~

PROGRAM/ACTIVITY DATA D Cl'V~ (9;f34-- t'(.-cc..r-A~--~6-z_

Country Code: Program Area: Assistance Objective: Inte1mediate Results:

Country or Region: Activity Name:

Funding Period:

306 A26- Program Design and Learning 306-SOAG-306-05-0004.01-7 Cross-cutting all Development Objectives and Intermediate Results Afghanistan USAID/ Afghanistan Conflict Assessment (to be done under the DCHA PEACE IQC) October - December 2018

Life of Project (LOP) Amount: $20,000 ($5,000 from USAID/Afghanistan and $15,000 from DCHA PEACE IQC)

RCE Prepared by: Fatima Verzosa Date: September 11, 2018 RCE Amendment (YIN): No (but this is a Supplementary RCE to the PEACE

IDIQ IEE approved by the BEO for DCHA on 8/27/2013)

ENVIRONMENTAL ACTION RECOMMENDED:

Categorical Exclusion Positive Determination Negative Determination With Conditions

Climate Change Vulnerability Risk

[X]

[ ] [ ]

Low [X]

Deferral Negative Determination Exemption

Medium [ ] High [ ]

1.0 PURPOSE, BACKGROUND AND ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION

1.1. Purpose and Background

The purpose of this RCE is to provide threshold determinations for the proposed US AID/ Afghanistan Conflict Assessment that will be conducted to 1) help

[ [ [

US AID/ Afghanistan better understand the conflict dynamics in areas of Afghanistan targeted in the new strategy and the impact these dynamics may have on the Mission's ability to achieve key programmatic results, 2) inform future project and activity design, and 3) provide recommendations to address conflict issues most likely to impede strategic interests, including whether a full conflict assessment is needed to meet the Mission's informational needs. This is a Supplementary RCE to the Washington-DC based IEE for the PEACE IDIQ under DCHA, approved by the BEO for DCHA on August 27, 2013, which requires that a country-specific IEE is developed.

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Background: The Mission has started to develop its first five-year Country Development and Cooperation Strategy (CDCS) for Afghanistan, and expects to begin implementing this strategy in October 2018. The CDCS goal is for Afghanistan to become a more inclusive, economically viable, and self-reliant countty with which the U.S. Government can better partner in our national security strategy. This will be achieved through three development objectives: 1) Private sector-driven and expmt-led economic growth accelerated, 2) Social gains advanced, and 3) Government accountability to citizens increased. The USG's development agenda in Afghanistan aims to grow the economy and reduce aid dependency, minimize the populations' vulnerability to extremism and improve the government's effectiveness and legitimacy. These efforts are intended to build selfreliance and enhance stability in the countty. Broadly, interventions will focus on private sector and expott led economic growth, advance health and education outcomes while improving gender equity and equality, and better engage citizens in governing while reducing conuption. As patt of the new strategy, USAID/Afghanistan will concentrate future activities in five (5) market centers which the desk study will also focus on- Kabul, Kandahar, Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif and Jalalabad.

The Mission requires an up-to-date understanding of the conflict dynamics that may affect the implementation of the next strategy. This includes both drivers and mitigating factors, with a patticular focus on an increased understanding of how the perfo1mance and perceptions of (effectiveness and legitimacy) of the relevant Government of Afghanistan institutions, the private sector and other proposed USAID pattners may inhibit or supp01t the achievement of development objectives in specific geographic areas. The analysis will explain how different identity groups in the targeted areas interact with these institutions and how the resulting experiences may shape the achievement of the USAID strategy. Key mobilizers will also be identified, including potential trends and triggers during the period of stt·ategic implementation.

1.2. Activity Description

The USAID/ Afghanistan Conflict Assessment will perform the following activities:

1. Assess conflict drivers and mitigating factors that may affect achievement of the three Development Objectives of the new strategy.

2. Consider how conflict dynamics may affect the legitimacy and effectiveness of the Government of Afghanistan and other institutions.

3. If possible, identify a few key components of how international and regional actors may impact local conflict dynamics and GoA effectiveness and legitimacy in the five market areas and around each sector identified below.

4. Discuss how conflict dynamics may interact with extremist elements.

2.0 RECOMMENDED THRESHOLD DECISIONS AND MITIGATION ACTIONS

Below are the recommended actions for the activities described above, their impacts on the environment and recommended Threshold Determinations and Conditions, if any:

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Activity Effects on natural or Recommended Threshold Determination

physical environment

Desk study and table-top No effect on the natural or Categorical Exclusions, 110 action required per exercise to assess the physical environment 22 CFR 216.2(c)(2)(i), (iii), (v) root causes and

Note however that it is recommend under dynamics of conflict in Afghanistan.

Climate Change Risk Screening (Section 5) that the study takes into account the impacts of climate change on root causes of conflict. MEO is available for consultation.

Table 1. Recommended Environmental Threshold decision, Afghanistan Conflict Assessment.

3.0 ENVIRONMENTAL RECOMMENDATIONS

Recommended Action: Categorical Exclusions (100 % of funding)

The USAID/Afghanistan Conflict Assessment activities involving the conduct of desk study and table top exercise do not have an effect on the natural and physical environment, fit within the categories listed in 22 CFR 216.2 ( c )(2) and are categorically excluded from any further environmental review requirements. The originator of the proposed action has determined that the proposed activities are within the following classes of actions:

• Education, technical assistance, or training programs, except to the extent such programs include activities directly affecting the environment (such as construction of facilities, etc.). [22 CFR 216.2(c)(2)(i)];

• Analyses, studies, academic or research workshops and meetings. [22 CFR 216 .2( c )(2)(iii)];

• Document and information transfers. [22 CFR 216.2(c)(2)(v)]

4.0 CLIMATE CHANGE RISK SCREENING

Afghanistan is extremely vulnerable to the impacts from global climate change. Available info1mation suggests that since 1960 annual temperature have increased 0.6°C and is expected to rise even more and there is an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events such as droughts and rainsto1ms which may affect water availability!. With projected economic and population growth, Afghanistan's water storage limitations and reliance on snowmelt and transboundaiy watersheds create significant climate change vulnerability. To minimize the negative impacts of climate change, US AID is required by ADS201 mal2 to incorporate climate change risk screening for all new projects as of October 1, 2016. This assessment and exercise will not be directly affected by climate change. However, it is recommended that the study takes into account the impacts of climate change on root causes of conflict and should also consider the USAID Afghanistan Climate Change assessment conducted for the CDCS and other sources of inf01mation on the relationship between climate and conflict3.

1 https://www.climatelinks.org/resources/climate-change-risk-profi le-afghanistan 2 https://www.usaid.gov/sites/defaulVfiles/documents/1868/201 mal_042817.pdf

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5.0 REVISIONS

Pursuant to 22 CFR 216.3(a)(9), if new information becomes available which indicates that activities to be funded by the project might be "major" and the project's effect "significant," or if additional activities are proposed that might be considered "major" and their effects significant, this IEE will be reviewed and revised by the originator of the project and submitted to the BEO/OAP A for approval and, if appropriate, an environmental assessment will be prepared. It is the responsibility of the USAID COR/AOR to keep the Mission Environmental Officer, USAID/ Afghanistan and the BEO/OAP A infonned of any new info1mation or changes in scope and nature of the activity that might require revision of the IEE.

3 See for instance: Climate Change & Environmental Nexus Brief: Fragility and Conflict (2018). MEO can provide additional sources of information.

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APPROVAL OF RECOMMENDED ENVIRONMENTAL ACTIONS

USAID/Afghanistan Conflict Assessment, IEE- RCE

A/COR, Activity Manager

Office Director (optional)

Mission Environmental Officer

Regional Environmental Advisor/SCA& OAPA

Office of Acquisition and Assistance

Regional Legal Advisor

Deputy Mission Director

Mission Director

Bureau Environmental Officer/OAPA

Note to BEO:

Cleared via e-mail Harry Bottenberg

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Concurrence:

Date:

?/13 / urrct

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9111/2018

9/12/2018

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Date:

Date:

Jl:[J This IEE is Procurement Sensitive, do not post until cleared by Kabul/OAA

POC: Contracting Officer , email _ _ ___ _

S This IEE may be posted upon clearance.

DISTRIBUTION: MEO, COR/AOR, OAA, RLO, BEO/DCHA

9/13/2018 USAID Mail - Re: for REA review: RCE Afghanistan Conflict Assessment

Harry Bottenberg <hbottenberg@usaid.gov>

Re: for REA review: RCE Afghanistan Conflict Assessment 1 message

Andrei Barannik <abarannik@usaid.gov> Wed, Sep 12, 2018 at 6:40 AM To: Harry Bottenberg <hbottenberg@usaid.gov> Cc: "Verzosa, Fatima {Philippines/PRM)" <fverzosa@usaid.gov>, sdorman@usaid.gov

Hary - reviewed - looks OK - I'd suggest to make it simple - keep Sec 1, 2 and revisions. Cc it to Erica C, BEO/DHACA. With this I clear. Pis have clean copy duly approved in the Mission and send it to Chris Payne, BEO/OAPA for his review and concurrence. W Ir, Andrei

On Tue, Sep 11, 2018 at 3:29 PM Harry Bottenberg <hbottenberg@usaid.gov> wrote: I Andrei, see attached for your review. This is a very small activity, a buy-in to a OCHA mechanism called PEACE. It's a

supplementary RCE. Also attached the overarching IEE (PEACE). We didn't add a climate matrix, seems a bit superfluous. We did state that the assessment should look into climate change as one of the causal factors or implicating factors in conflict in Afghanistan and have added a reference, and that MEO is available for consultation and assistance with additional sources of information.

The PEACE IDIQ IEE appears to be ending by the end of the month but I think that is because the mechanism was expected to be ending around that time when the IEE was developed in 2013. I've emailed Erica Clesceri about it and cc-ed you earlier today. I don't think it's a big deal.

On Tue, Sep 11 , 2018 at 2:21 PM Fatima S Verzosa <fverzosa@usaid .gov> wrote: Hi, Harry- The edits are good. Thank you again. Please let us know if we can circulate for clearances in the Mission . Best, Ima

Sent from my iPhone

On Sep 11, 2018, at 10:07 PM, Harry Botten berg <hbottenberg@usaid.gov> wrote:

See attached. Are you OK with these edits? Then I can have Andrei Barannik review and when he's OK you can start mission clearances.

I clear this RCE with edits.

harry

On Tue, Sep 11, 2018 at 10:48 AM Fatima S Verzosa <fverzosa@usaid.gov> wrote: Hi, Harry -- Attached is the completed IEE/RCE. I have filled in all the yellow highlighted sections. Kindly please review/edit as needed. Once in final, we will get all the signatories. Thanks too for your inputs for the Activity Checklist. By the way, what happens if the PEACE IQC expires in September? Will this affect the IEE for the Conflict Assessment? Many thanks for all your support, Ima

1 Fatima S. Verzosa Office of Program and Project Development/Project Design Team/Gender Unit USAID/Afghanistan Ext. 3954 +93.0702.029.230 fverzosa@usaid .gov

On Thu, Sep 6, 2018 at 5:46 PM Fatima S Verzosa <fverzosa@usaid .gov> wrote:

https://mail.google .com/mail/u/O?ik=6d97d40d0d&view=pt&search=all&permthid=thread-a%3Ar -8776405396409725715% 7Cmsg-f%3A 1611 39793759... 116