aegis comparative analysis: petrobras vs. international majors€¦ ·  · 2013-08-14aegis...

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 333 Clay Street Suite 4130 Houston, Texas 77002 Phone (713) 890-1185 Fax (713) 751-8888 Carnegie Hall Tower 152 West 57 St, 29th Floor New York, NY 10019 Phone (212) 245-2552 Fax (212) 582-0386 Aegis Comparative Analysis: Petrobras Vs. International Majors Select Operating and Financial Comparisons

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Page 1: Aegis Comparative Analysis: Petrobras Vs. International Majors€¦ ·  · 2013-08-14Aegis Comparative Analysis: Petrobras Vs. International Majors ... The purpose of this document

October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP.

333 Clay StreetSuite 4130

Houston, Texas 77002Phone (713) 890-1185

Fax (713) 751-8888

Carnegie Hall Tower152 West 57 St, 29th Floor

New York, NY 10019Phone (212) 245-2552

Fax (212) 582-0386

Aegis Comparative Analysis:Petrobras Vs. International Majors

Select Operating and Financial Comparisons

Page 2: Aegis Comparative Analysis: Petrobras Vs. International Majors€¦ ·  · 2013-08-14Aegis Comparative Analysis: Petrobras Vs. International Majors ... The purpose of this document

October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 2

AEGIS Energy Advisors Corp.A boutique investment bank providing strategic, merger, acquisition, and divestiture advise to the energy industry

– www.aegisenergy.com

Affiliate: Aegis Muse Associates, LLC– An advisory organization dedicated to the downstream energy business

– a Joint Venture founded in1998 with Muse, Stancil & Co.

• Muse, Stancil & Co.

– A leading international consulting company specializing in the technical and economic assessment of downstream energy-related matters

– www.musestancil.com

– The intersection of insights required to respond to strategic issues In the 21st century

– Strategic financial advisory expertise with few peers

– Operational knowledge rooted in experience

– Commercial credentials and ideas required to deliver creative solutions

Strategic & Financial

Commercial Operational

Page 3: Aegis Comparative Analysis: Petrobras Vs. International Majors€¦ ·  · 2013-08-14Aegis Comparative Analysis: Petrobras Vs. International Majors ... The purpose of this document

October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 3

PETROBRAS COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE

The purpose of this document is compare Petrobras to other large, open capital integrated energy companies in order to gain insights into the company’s financial and operating attributes and its relative market valuation

The financial statements on which the analysis contained herein is based are for the year ended 2002.

Conclusions:

– Petrobras is comparable in physical size and configuration to the integrated major companies but smaller than the three super majors

• distinguishing characteristics– liquids oriented reserve base; much higher oil than natural gas– longer reserve lives; consistent with a reserve base at a comparatively early stage of development– geographically and geopolitically concentrated; an inevitable consequence of the company’s

history as Brazil’s national oil company

Page 4: Aegis Comparative Analysis: Petrobras Vs. International Majors€¦ ·  · 2013-08-14Aegis Comparative Analysis: Petrobras Vs. International Majors ... The purpose of this document

October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 4

PETROBRAS COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE (CONT’D)

Conclusions (cont’d):

– The company’s financial performance lags its peers in revenues and EBITDA but is comparable in Net Income

• lower revenues and EBITDA– lower revenues attributable to proportionately higher intra-company transfers and the resulting

elimination of related revenues in financial consolidation– lower EBITDA consistent with high cost E&P– both revenues and EBITDA reduced by relatively high government take

• lower EBITDA offset by lower depreciation and lower income taxes, resulting in net income comparable to other Integrated Majors

• higher cost, lower profit E&P operations; consistent with heavier crudes and deep water offshore development

• more profitable refining & marketing operations, a result of the Brazilian market being short product and long crude, similar to the California market just as the North Slope production came on stream in the mid ‘70s

– relative refining margins influenced by Real/$US exchange rate– depreciation of the Real versus the dollar from December ’01 to December ’02 reduced Petrobras’

R&M performance when expressed in $US/bbl.

Page 5: Aegis Comparative Analysis: Petrobras Vs. International Majors€¦ ·  · 2013-08-14Aegis Comparative Analysis: Petrobras Vs. International Majors ... The purpose of this document

October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 5

PETROBRAS COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE (CONT’D)

Conclusions (cont’d):– Dissimilar to other privatizing state oil companies

• many fewer employees

– Deeply discounted in the stock market• in part explained by sovereign and currency risk

– Latin America– change of administrations (and senior executive corporate management) following presidential

elections• also due to high sensitivity of E&P results to crude price volatility

– lower valued, heavy crudes– high cost deep water development– high government take

• depreciation of Real versus $US reduces contribution of very sizeable domestic R&M operations

– The stock appears undervalued• valued cheaper than the other privatizing companies• valued cheaper than Repsol, a Latin American analogue

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 6

PETROBRAS COMPARISONSAegis compared Petrobras to other publicly traded integrated oil companies

– Companies were categorized into groupings• Super Major: Global oil companies distinguished by their size• Integrated Major: International integrated oil companies• Privatizing: Integrated oils with continued state participation

– Although Petrobras was grouped with the Privatizing companies, its size and performance is consistent with that of the integrated majors

– Comparisons were made in the following five categories• Absolute Size• Operating Characteristics• Operating Performance• Financial Performance• Stock Market Performance

BP

ExxonMobil

Royal Dutch Shell

Super Major Integrated Major Privatizing

ChevronTexaco

ConocoPhillips

Repsol-YPF

TotalFinaElf

Eni

Petrobras

PetroCanada

PetroChina

Sinopec

Statoil

Page 7: Aegis Comparative Analysis: Petrobras Vs. International Majors€¦ ·  · 2013-08-14Aegis Comparative Analysis: Petrobras Vs. International Majors ... The purpose of this document

October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 7

CONTENTS

ABSOLUTE SIZE COMPARISONS 8

OPERATING PROFILE 18

OPERATING PERFORMANCE 27

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE 39

STOCK MARKET COMPARISONS 49

CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS 61

SUPPLEMENTAL DATA 64

– Liquid Reserves, Gas Reserves, Percent Liquid Reserves, Percent Liquid Production, Liquids Reserves Life, Gas Reserves Life, Refinery Integration

– Reserves, Oil and Gas Production, Refining capacity, Employees, Total Assets, Revenues, EBITDA, Net Income

– Turnover, Gross Margin, EBITDA ROCE, EBIT ROCE, Return on Equity, Cash Flow Reinvestment, Book Debt Ratio

– Market Capitalization, Firm Value, Reserve Market Valuation, Dividend Yield, Price to 2003 Est Earnings, Price to 2004 Est Earnings, One Year Shareholder Return, Historical Equity Price Performance

– Total EBITDA per barrel, Segment EBITDA per barrel, Segment ROA, R&M EBITDA/TOTAL EBITDA, Lifting Costs, Reserve Replacement Costs, Reserve Replacement Rate, Employee Profitability

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 8

ABSOLUTE SIZE COMPARISONSPetrobras is comparable in size to the Integrated Major companies in terms of physical assets

– before the ChevronTexaco and ConocoPhillips mergers, Petrobras was one of the largest Integrated Majors

When measured by revenues, EBITDA, and total assets, Petrobras is smaller than the other major integrated companies

PetrobrasSuperMajors

IntegratedMajors

Petrobrasvs

SuperMajors

Petrobras vs

IntegratedMajors

Reserves (million BOE) 10,534 19,148 8,895 55% 118%Oil and Gas Production (mBOE / day) 1,711 3,906 1,861 44% 92%Refining Capacity (mbpd) 2,021 4,467 2,084 45% 97%Employees (no.) 40,848 107,917 65,398 38% 62%Total Assets ($ billions) $32,018 $154,820 $70,893 21% 45%Revenues ($ billions) $22.6 $179.0 $79.8 13% 28%EBITDA ($ billions) $6.2 $25.3 $10.8 24% 57%Net Income ($ billions) $2.3 $9.1 $2.3 25% 101%

Petrobras Super Majors Integrated Majors

BP ExxonMobilRoyal Dutch Shell

ChevronTexacoConocoPhillipsRepsol-YPFTotalFinaElf

Note: Data for full-year, and/or end-of-year, 2002

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 9

ABSOLUTE SIZE COMPARISONSPetrobras is comparable to the integrated majors in terms of reserves, production and refining capacityPetrobras is smaller than the integrated majors in terms of assets, employees, EBITDA and revenues

Reserves Reserves

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

RefiningCapacity

Oil & GasProduction

Employees

TotalAssets

NetIncome

Revenues

EBITDA0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

RefiningCapacity

Oil & GasProduction

Revenues

EBITDA

Employees

TotalAssets

NetIncome

Petrobras Super Majors Integrated Majors

BP ExxonMobilRoyal Dutch Shell

ChevronTexacoConocoPhillipsRepsol-YPFTotalFinaElf

See appendix for note on interpreting spider diagrams

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 10

RESERVES

Liquids & Gas Reserves (Million BOE)

21,109

19,039

17,297

11,89110,827

7,810

5,053

17,407

6,888

3,875

1,014

4,112

10,534

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000Ex

xonM

obil

RD

She

ll

BP

Che

vron

Texa

co

Tota

lFin

aElf

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Rep

sol

Petro

Chi

na

Petro

bras EN

I

Stat

oil

Sino

pec

Petro

Can

ada

Petrobras’ reserves are on par with the integrated majors’ and comparable to Chevron Texaco & TotalFinaElf

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 11

OIL & GAS PRODUCTION

Annual Oil and Gas Production (Thousand Barrels of Oil Equivalent (BOE) / Day)

4,347

3,943

3,428

2,3442,472

1,7111,432

1,042821

299

2,625

1,642

833

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000Ex

xonM

obil

RD

She

ll

BP

Che

vron

Texa

co

Tota

lFin

aElf

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Rep

sol

Petro

Chi

na

Petro

bras EN

I

Stat

oil

Sino

pec

Petro

Can

ada

Petrobras’ oil and gas production is at the average of the integrated majors

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 12

REFINING CAPACITY

Thousand Barrels Per Day

5,481

4,387

3,534

2,6602,275

1,234

2,648

2,021 1,986

654313 292

2,166

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Exxo

nMob

il

RD

She

ll

BP

Tota

lFin

aElf

Che

vron

Texa

co

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Rep

sol

Sino

pec

Petro

bras

Petro

Chi

na ENI

Petro

Can

ada

Stat

oil

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

With 97.7% of Brazil’s refining capacity, Petrobras has the same refining capacity as the average integrated major

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 13

116 115121

442 419

81

41

17

4

93

30

5357

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

RD

She

ll

BP

Exxo

nMob

il

Tota

lFin

aElf

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Che

vron

Texa

co

Rep

sol

Petro

Chi

na

Sino

pec

ENI

Petro

bras

Stat

oil

Petro

Can

ada

The number of Petrobras employees is significantly below other integrated oil companies of similar size

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

EMPLOYEES

Number of Company Employees (thousands)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 14

TOTAL ASSETS

TOTAL ASSETS ($ billions)

$77 $77$69

$58

$45

$159$153 $153

$89

$40$32 $30

$9

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

BP

Exxo

nMob

il

RD

She

ll

Tota

lFin

aElf

Che

vron

Texa

co

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Rep

sol

ENI

Petro

Chi

na

Sino

pec

Petro

bras

Stat

oil

Petro

Can

ada

Based on total assets, Petrobras is somewhat smaller than the average integrated major. Low asset levels may reflect, in part, the decline of the Brazilian real versus the dollar.

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 15

REVENUES

REVENUES (Excluding Excise Taxes) ($ billions)

$179

$108

$81

$179

$179

$38

$92

$6

$30$35$39

$50

$23

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

Exxo

nMob

il

BP

RD

She

ll

Tota

lFin

aElf

Che

vron

Texa

co

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Rep

sol

ENI

Sino

pec

Stat

oil

Petro

Chi

na

Petro

bras

Petro

Can

ada

Petrobras’ revenue levels are significantly lower than those of the integrated majors:

• a disproportionately higher amount of inter-segment eliminations; i.e., Petrobras’ E&P operation sells a large amount of equity crude to the company’s R&M operation

• liquids production weighted toward lower valued heavy crudes

• high government take

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 16

EBITDAEBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes & Depreciation) ($ Billions)

$27.0

$18.0

$8.0$7.0

$15.0

$10.0

$2.0

$26.0$23.0

$10.0

$6.0

$13.0

$6.0

$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0

RD

She

ll

Exxo

nMob

il

BP

Tota

lFin

aElf

Che

vron

Texa

co

Rep

sol

Con

oco

Philli

ps ENI

Petro

Chi

na

Stat

oil

Petro

bras

Sino

pec

Petro

Can

ada

Petrobras’ gross pre-tax cash flow (EBITDA) is also lower than the average integrated major:

• predominately a producer of lower valued heavy crudes from high cost deep water fields

• high lifting costs exacerbated by high government share of production

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 17

NET INCOME

Net Income ($ billions)

$1.0$2.0

$1.0

$7.0$9.0

$11.0

$6.0

$0.4

$1.0

$5.0

$2.0 $2.0

$6.0

$0.0

$2.0

$4.0

$6.0

$8.0

$10.0

$12.0

$14.0

$16.0

Exxo

nMob

il

RD

She

ll

BP

Tota

lFin

aElf

Che

vron

Texa

co

Rep

sol

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Petro

Chi

na ENI

Petro

bras

Stat

oil

Sino

pec

Petro

Can

ada

Petrobras’ net income is equal to the average of the integrated majors:

• below average EBITDA offset by lower depreciation of low historic cost asset base, due also in part to depreciation of the real Vs the dollar

• lower than average income taxes

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 18

OPERATING PROFILEPetrobras reserves are heavily weighted toward liquids

– comparable to the super majors in terms of liquids reserves– comparatively lower gas reserves

Petrobras’ oil and gas reserve life is longer than the majorsPetrobras’ is less integrated downstream; other companies have proportionately more refining capacity relative to liquids production

PetrobrasSuperMajors

IntegratedMajors

Petrobrasvs

SuperMajors

Petrobras vs

IntegratedMajors

Liquid Reserves (mmbbls) 8,955 10,374 5,764 86% 155%Gas Reserves (bcf) 9,473 52,648 18,789 18% 50%Percent Liquid Reserves (%) 85% 54% 65% 157% 131%Percent Liquids Production (%) 87% 57% 67% 151% 130%Liquids Reserve Life (years) 17 13 13 130% 130%Gas Reserve Life (years) 19 14 14 132% 139%Refinery Integration (%) 136% 199% 168% 68% 81%

Super Majors Integrated MajorsPetrobras

BP ExxonMobilRoyal Dutch Shell

ChevronTexacoConocoPhillipsRepsol-YPFTotalFinaElf

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 19

OPERATING PROFILEPetrobras’ reserves and production are heavily weighted toward liquids

LiquidsReserves

LiquidsReserves

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

PercentLiquids

Reserves

GasReserves

RefineryIntegration

LiquidsReserve

Life

Gas Reserve

Life

PercentLiquids

Production

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

PercentLiquids

Reserves

GasReserves

RefineryIntegration

LiquidsReserve

Life

Gas Reserve

Life

PercentLiquids

Production

Petrobras Super Majors Integrated Majors

BP ExxonMobilRoyal Dutch Shell

ChevronTexacoConocoPhillipsRepsol-YPFTotalFinaElf

See appendix for note on interpreting spider diagrams

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 20

LIQUIDS RESERVES

Liquids Reserves (Million BOE)

11,823

10,133

9,1658,668

7,231

8,955

3,320

1,867

657

5,137

2,019

3,783

10,937

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Exx

onM

obil

RD

She

ll

BP

Che

vron

Texa

co

Tot

alFi

naEl

f

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Rep

sol

Pet

roC

hina

Pet

robr

as

ENI

Sin

opec

Sta

toil

Pet

roC

anad

a

Petrobras has more crude reserves than the average integrated major and is on par with BP

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 21

GAS RESERVES

Gas Reserves (Billions Cubic Feet)

55,718

48,789

21,57519,335 18,206

38,817

18,629

13,470

9,473

3,329 2,139

53,438

16,040

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Exx

onM

obil

RD

She

ll

BP

Tot

alFi

naEl

f

Che

vron

Texa

co

Rep

sol

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Pet

roC

hina

ENI

Sta

toil

Pet

robr

as

Sin

opec

Pet

roC

anad

a

The Company’s gas reserves are substantially less than the majors

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 22

PERCENT LIQUIDS RESERVES

Liquids Reserves / (Liquids & Gas Reserves (BOE))

67%

53%56%

53%

40%

66%73%

55%

86%

65%

45%

63%

85%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Exxo

nMob

il

RD

She

ll

BP

Che

vron

Texa

co

Tota

lFin

aElf

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Rep

sol

Sino

pec

Petro

bras

Petro

Can

ada

Petro

Chi

na ENI

Stat

oil

Petrobras’ reserve base is heavily biased toward crude

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 23

PERCENT LIQUIDS ProductionLiquids Production / Total Production

57%

72%68%

90%87%

64% 64%60%56%

53%

63%

85%

71%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

RD

She

ll

BP

Exx

onM

obil

Che

vron

Texa

co

Tot

alFi

naEl

f

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Rep

sol

Sin

opec

Pet

robr

as

Pet

roC

hina

Sta

toil

ENI

Pet

roC

anad

a

The Company’s production is also weight toward liquids

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 24

LIQUIDS RESERVE LIFE

Liquids Reserves / Annual Liquids Production (Years)

1313

17

1213 13 1314

11

9

7

12

14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Exxo

nMob

il

BP

RD

She

ll

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Tota

lFin

aElf

Che

vron

Texa

co

Rep

sol

Petro

bras

Petro

Chi

na

Sino

pec

ENI

Petro

Can

ada

Stat

oil

Petrobras’ long crude oil reserve life reflects the early development stage of its reserves

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 25

GAS RESERVE LIFE

Gas Reserves / Annual Gas Production (Years)

15 13

16

1213 12

21 21

1919

16

9

49

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

RD

She

ll

BP

Exxo

nMob

il

Rep

sol

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Tota

lFin

aElf

Che

vron

Texa

co

Petro

Chi

na

Stat

oil

Petro

bras

Sino

pec

ENI

Petro

Can

ada

Petrobras gas reserve life is also long but of little significance given the comparatively small amount of gas reserves

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 26

REFINERY INTEGRATION

Refining Capacity / Liquids Production

278%

210%

358%

181%

227%

185%167%

120%

39%

71%94%163% 136%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

450%

Exxo

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Sino

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Petro

Can

ada

Petro

bras

Petro

Chi

na ENI

Stat

oil

Petrobras is less downstream integrated than either the majors or super majors

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 27

OPERATING PERFORMANCEPetrobras’ upstream operations are somewhat less profitable than those of the majors

– a relatively high level of heavy oil production– production is primarily off-shore in deepwater; i.e., high lifting costs– the Brazilian government has a relatively high take

Petrobras’ downstream performance is very profitable, although less-so following the liberalization of product markets and the year-to-year depreciation of the real

– comparatively short refining capacity– long crude supply

Employee profitability is consistent with the majors– lower number of employees offset by lower EBITDA

PetrobrasSuperMajors

IntegratedMajors

Petrobrasvs

SuperMajors

Petrobras vs

IntegratedMajors

Total EBITDA / Production ($/BOE) $9.88 $17.77 $15.83 56% 62%E&P EBITDA / Production ($/BOE) $11.98 $12.89 $13.09 93% 92%E&P EBITDA ROA (%) 50% 31% 30% 162% 104%RM&T EBITDA / Capacity ($/bbl) $2.36 $2.69 $1.82 88% 129%R&M EBITDA ROA (%) 17% 9% 7% 184% 237%RM&T EBITDA / Total EBITDA (%) 27% 16% 12% 163% 219%Lifting Costs per Barrel ($ / BOE) $7.85 $4.77 $3.96 61% 50%Reserve Replacement Costs ($/BOE) $1.89 $5.56 $5.37 294% 284%Reserve Replacement Rate (%) 301% 109% 95% 276% 317%Employee Profitability (m$ / employee) $151 $235 $164 64% 92%

Super Majors Integrated MajorsPetrobras

BP ExxonMobilRoyal Dutch Shell

ChevronTexacoConocoPhillipsRepsol-YPFTotalFinaElf

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 28

OPERATING PERFORMANCEWhile Petrobras upstream profitability lags the majors, its downstream performance leads the group and accounts for a disproportionately high percentage of overall cash flow

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

R&M EBITDA per bbl

E&P EBITDAper BOE

EmployeeProfitability

Reserve Replacement

Costs

Reserve Replacement

Rate

Lifting Costs

R&M EBITDA per bbl

E&P EBITDAper BOE

Total EBITDAper BOE

EmployeeProfitability

Reserve Replacement

Costs

Reserve Replacement

Rate

Lifting Costs

E&P EBITDAROA

R&M EBITDA

ROA

E&P EBITDAROA

R&M EBITDA

ROA

Total EBITDAper BOE

R&M EBITDA % of Total

R&M EBITDA % of Total

Petrobras Super Majors Integrated Majors

BP ExxonMobilRoyal Dutch Shell

ChevronTexacoConocoPhillipsRepsol-YPFTotalFinaElf

See appendix for note on interpreting spider diagrams

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 29

EBITDA PER BARREL

$28.1$26.5

$18.7$18.3 $16.5

$26.4

$21.4

$11.2$10.4

$14.7

$17.4

$9.9

$21.0

$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

RD

She

ll

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Exxo

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Sino

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Petro

Chi

na

Petro

bras

s’ total EBITDA per BOE production is below the integrated and super majors

• comparable production but lower EBITDA

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

Total EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes & Depreciation) / BOE (Barrel of Oil Equivalent) Annual Production ($/bbl)

Petrobra

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 30

E&P SEGMENT PERFORMANCE

E&P Segment EBITDA / Total Production (BOE) ($/bbl)

$16.0

$9.5

$18.2

$14.4

$12.0

$13.4$13.4 $11.7 $13.4

$11.1$12.5

$12.6

$17.7

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

RD

She

ll

Exx

onM

obil

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Tot

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naEl

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Sta

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Pet

roC

anad

a

Pet

roC

hina

Sin

opec

Pet

robr

as

Because of the character ofPetrobras’ reserves, the company’s E&P segment is less profitable than the majors’

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 31

E&P EBITDA ROAE&P Segment EBITDA / Total E&P Assets (%)

45%

17%

50%

38%

26%

32%33%

28%34%

21%

33%

34%

41%

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

RD

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onM

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robr

as

Sta

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ENI

Sin

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Pet

roC

hina

Pet

roC

anad

a

Petrobras’ E&P EBITDA ROA is above the average• low cost basis in assets

Year 2002 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 32

R&M SEGMENT PERFORMANCE

R&M Segment EBITDA / 95% of Refining Capacity (annualized) ($/bbl)

$3.6 $3.7

$2.3

$1.3

$0.8

$5.5

$4.7

$3.8

$2.4

$1.8

$2.8

$1.9

$3.6

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

RD

She

ll

BP

Exx

onM

obil

Rep

sol

Tot

alFi

naEl

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Con

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Sta

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ENI

Pet

roC

anad

a

Pet

robr

as

Pet

roC

hina

Petrobras’ R&M per barrel profitability is equal to an average major

In 2001, the last year before the lifting of product import restrictions and a significant devlauation of the real, Petrobras’ R&M was one of the most profitable in the world

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 33

R&M EBITDA ROAR&M Segment EBITDA / R&M Total Assets (%)

19%

2%

26%

16%

9%9%

15%

7%

12%

4%

11%11%

17%

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

BP

RD

She

ll

Exx

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Tot

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Sin

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Pet

robr

as

Pet

roC

anad

a

Sta

toil

ENI

Pet

roC

hina

Year 2002 Results Group Average (2002)

Petrobras’ R&M EBITDA ROA is at the average for privatizing companies and well above the majors’

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 34

PERCENTAGE R&M EBITDAR&M Segment EBITDA / Total Corporate EBITDA (percent)

20%15% 14%

19%

11%

6%

80%

27%

21%

9%

15%

5%6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

RD

She

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BP

Exx

onM

obil

Rep

sol

Con

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Tot

alFi

naEl

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Che

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Sin

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Pet

robr

as

Pet

roC

anad

a

Pet

roC

hina

ENI

Sta

toil

As a result of its strong performance, Petrobras’downstream segment accounts for a large portion of the company’s total cash flow

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 35

LIFTING COSTS

Production Costs (including royalties) / BOE (Barrel of Oil Equivalent) Annual Production ($/bbl)

$5.2

$3.9

$4.8

$7.9

$6.5

$4.7$4.3

$3.6

$5.2

$4.5

$2.5

$3.2

$4.7

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

$7.0

$8.0

$9.0

BP

Exx

onM

obil

RD

She

ll

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Con

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Pet

robr

as

Sin

opec

Pet

roC

hina

Pet

roC

anad

a

ENI

Sta

toil

Lifting costs are higher than industry norms due to a concentration of deepwater production and government take

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 36

RESERVE REPLACEMENT COSTS

Total E&P Costs (including acquisitions) / (Revisions + Purchases + Extensions & Discoveries + Improved Recovery) ($/bbl)

$8.6

$5.3 $5.0

$7.8

$6.1

$4.2$4.8

$3.7

$5.6$4.9

$7.9

$1.8$1.9

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

RD

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oil

Petro

Chi

na

Petro

bras

Petro

Can

ada

Petrobras’ reserve replacement costs are among the best in the industry in 2002

2001 high replacement cost reflect significant revisions to reserves due to lower crude prices

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 37

RESERVE REPLACEMENT RATE

(Revisions + Extensions & Discoveries + Improved Recovery) / Oil & Gas Production

163%

32%

301%

126%

51%

120%

111%80%

113%101%

122%129%

140%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

BP

Exxo

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Petro

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Petro

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oil

Petrobras’ replacement rate is twice the rate of BP and three times that of an average major

•In large measure a reversal of downward revisions in 2001 resulting from lower oil prices

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 38

EMPLOYEE PROFITABILITY

EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes & Depreciation) / Company Employee ($ thousands)

$267

$118

$589

$232

$199

$283

$151$188

$424

$30 $15

$182 $151

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

Exxo

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Petro

bras

Petro

Chi

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Sino

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The Company’s employee profitability is on par with that of the average integrated major

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 39

FINANCIAL COMPARISONSPetrobras’ EBITDA ROCE is on par with the majors

– substantially lower turnover (lower revenues relative to the majors)– substantially higher gross margins (large intracompany transfers and very profitable R&M)

Petrobras’ ROE is substantially greater than its peers– lower depreciation deductions (low historic cost asset base)– lower income taxes

The company is reinvesting a greater portion of its cash flow than the majors (peak development stage for offshore reserves)Petrobras’ leverage is comparable to the average integrated major

PetrobrasSuperMajors

IntegratedMajors

Petrobrasvs

SuperMajors

Petrobras vs

IntegratedMajors

Turnover (%) 0.9x 1.6x 1.5x 55% 61%Gross Margin (%) 27% 14% 13% 193% 202%EBITDA ROCE (%) 25% 23% 20% 107% 123%EBIT ROCE (%) 17% 15% 12% 114% 142%Return on Equity (%) 25% 13% 8% 185% 298%Cash Flow Reinvestment (%) 107% 51% 52% 208% 205%Book Debt Ratio (%) 43% 11% 31% 26% 73%

Petrobras Super Majors Integrated Majors

BP ExxonMobilRoyal Dutch Shell

ChevronTexacoConocoPhillipsRepsol-YPFTotalFinaElf

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 40

FINANCIAL COMPARISONSWhile Petrobras’ ROCE is comparable to the majors, its turnover is substantially lower and its margins are

significantly higher

TurnoverTurnover

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

GrossMargin

EBITDAROCE

Return onEquity

Cash Flow

Reinvestment

BookDebtRatio

EBITROCE

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

GrossMargin

EBITDAROCE

Return onEquity

Cash Flow

Reinvestment

BookDebtRatio

EBITROCE

Petrobras Super Majors Integrated Majors

BP ExxonMobilRoyal Dutch Shell

ChevronTexacoConocoPhillipsRepsol-YPFTotalFinaElf

See appendix for note on interpreting spider diagrams

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 41

TURNOVER

Revenues / Capital Employed (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

1.70x1.84x

1.58x 1.50x

1.27x1.25x

1.60x1.67x

0.62x

0.90x0.91x1.08x

1.25x

0.0x

0.5x

1.0x

1.5x

2.0x

2.5x

3.0x

RD

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Petro

Chi

na

Petrobras’ low asset turnover is primarily a result of substantially lower revenues, which result from a large amount of physical integration (i.e.Petrobras refineries run Petrobras crude) and resulting inter-company eliminations

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 42

GROSS MARGIN

EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes & Depreciation) / Revenues

15%15%

13%

21%17%

8%11%

29%29% 27%

16%

30%

45%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

RD

She

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Exxo

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il

BP

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Petro

bras

Sino

pec

Petrobras’ gross margin is relatively high and is primarily due to lower revenues relative to EBITDA as a result of inter-company eliminations

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 43

EBITDA RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYED

EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes & Depreciation) / Capital Employed (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

11%

48%

20%

22%28%

29%

17%

26%27%

20%

25%28%

32%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

RD

She

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il

BP

Tota

lFin

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oil

ENI

Petro

Chi

na

Petro

Can

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Petro

bras

Sino

pec

Petrobras’ EBITDA ROCE is on par with the integrated majors

• lower relative EBITDA offset by low historical cost asset base

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 44

EBIT RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYED

EBIT (Earnings Before Interest & Taxes) / Capital Employed (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

5.3%

18.9%

11.1%15.0%17.3%

19.4%

8.2%

18.5%

36.4%

18.5%

19.2%

10.7%

16.9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

RD

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Chi

na

Petro

Can

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Petro

bras

Sino

pec

Petrobras’ EBIT ROCE exceeds that of the integrated majors due to lower depreciation

• lower depreciation due to low asset basis

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 45

RETURN ON EQUITY

Net Income / Book Value of Equity

15%

10%10%

16%

1%

19%

4%

10%

30%

17%

15%

18%

25%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

RD

She

ll

Exxo

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il

BP

Tota

lFin

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oil

Petro

bras EN

I

Petro

Can

ada

Petro

Chi

na

Sino

pec

Petrobras’ ROE is superior to the majors

• lower book equity and depreciation due to currency depreciation

• relatively lower corporate income tax rates

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 46

EBITDA COMPONENTSAs a result of relatively low depreciation and income taxes, Petrobras’ net income relative to EBITDA is the highest among the comparable companies.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Exxo

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TaxesInterestDD&ANet Income

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 47

CASH FLOW REINVESTMENT

Capital Expenditures / EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes & Depreciation)

0.53x 0.50x

0.76x

0.67x

0.41x0.34x

1.38x

1.07x

0.81x

0.51x

0.26x

0.51x

0.67x

0.0x

0.2x

0.4x

0.6x

0.8x

1.0x

1.2x

1.4x

BP

RD

She

ll

Exxo

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Che

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co

Con

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lFin

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Rep

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Petro

Can

ada

Petro

bras

Sino

pec

Petro

Chi

na ENI

Stat

oil

Petrobras’ reinvestment rate exceeds that of the majors • continued development of reserve base• upgrading refineries to process indigenous heavy crudes

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 48

BOOK DEBT RATIO

LTD / LTD + Book Value of Equity

10%

43%

32%

8%

15%

41%

24%25%

39%

20% 16%20%

37%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

BP

RD

She

ll

Exxo

nMob

il

Rep

sol

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Che

vron

Texa

co

Tota

lFin

aElf

Petro

bras

Stat

oil

Petro

Can

ada

ENI

Sino

pec

Petro

Chi

na

Petrobras’ financial leverage is high on a book basis

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 49

STOCK MARKET COMPARISONS

Petrobras suffers on all market value metrics due to the low level of its share price relative to its peers

PetrobrasSuperMajors

IntegratedMajors

Petrobrasvs

SuperMajors

Petrobras vs

IntegratedMajors

Market Capitalization ($ billions) $27 $183 $62 15% 43%Firm Value ($ billions) $34 $192 $74 18% 45%Reserve Market Valuation ($ / BOE) $2.83 $8.70 $6.67 33% 42%Dividend Yield (%) 3.3% 3.6% 3.2% 93% 104%Price to 2002 Est Earnings (%) 4.7x 13.1x 10.1x 36% 47%Price to 2003 Est Earnings (%) 6.4x 15.3x 12.4x 42% 51%One Year Shareholder Return (%) 95% 9% 21% 998% 456%

Note: stock performance metrics are based on closing prices on November 24, 2003

Petrobras Super Majors Integrated Majors

BP ExxonMobilRoyal Dutch Shell

ChevronTexacoConocoPhillipsRepsol-YPFTotalFinaElf

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 50

STOCK MARKET COMPARISONS

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

Price to2002

Earnings

Price to2001

Earnings

DividendYield

ReserveMarket

Valuation

1-YearShareholder

Return

MarketCapitalization

FirmValue

Price to2002

Earnings

Price to2001

Earnings

DividendYield

ReserveMarket

Valuation

1-YearSharehlder

Return

MarketCapitalization

FirmValue

Petrobras Super Majors Integrated Majors

BP ExxonMobilRoyal Dutch Shell

ChevronTexacoConocoPhillipsRepsol-YPFTotalFinaElf

See appendix for note on interpreting spider diagrams

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 51

MARKET CAPITALIZATION

Shares Outstanding * Price per Share ($ Billions)

$235

$160 $155

$107

$79

$39

$21

$66 $63

$27$11

$22$26

0

50

100

150

200

250

Exx

onM

obil

BP

RD

She

ll

Tot

alFi

naEl

f

Che

vron

Texa

co

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Rep

sol

ENI

Pet

roC

hina

Pet

robr

as

Sin

opec

Sta

toil

Pet

roC

anad

a

Petrobras’ equity market capitalization is less than half that of the integrated major average

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 52

FIRM VALUE

Market Capitalization (Shares Outstanding * Price per Share) + Long-term Debt ($ Billions)

$242

$162

$73 $71

$13

$172

$118

$90

$58$31 $27$30$34

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Exx

onM

obil

BP

RD

She

ll

Tot

alFi

naEl

f

Che

vron

Texa

co

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Rep

sol

ENI

Pet

roC

hina

Pet

robr

as

Sin

opec

Sta

toil

Pet

roC

anad

a

Petrobras’ low market capitalization is reflected in the company’s relatively low firm value

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 53

RESERVE MARKET VALUATION

$9.96

$8.31$7.65

$9.28

$6.67

$4.87

$3.85

$12.26

$9.09

$6.56

$4.26

$2.88$2.83

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Exx

onM

obil

BP

RD

She

ll

Tot

alFi

naEl

f

Che

vron

Texa

co

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Rep

sol

Pet

roC

anad

a

ENI

Sta

toil

Sin

opec

Pet

roC

hina

Pet

robr

as

Market Capitalization - Book Value of Equity + E&P Capitalization / Barrel of Oil Equivalent Reserves ($/bbl)

– assumes the difference between market capitalization and book value is attributable to the value of reserves in the ground; i.e., all other assets and liabilities are worth book value

Petrobras’ reserves are highly discounted in the financial markets

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 54

DIVIDEND YIELD

Annual Dividend Per Share / Price Per Share

4.3%

3.0% 3.0%

2.1%

0.7%

4.0%

2.8%

3.9%

4.8%5.7%

4.5% 3.4%4.3%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

RD

She

ll

BP

Exx

onM

obil

Che

vron

Texa

co

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Tot

alFi

naEl

f

Rep

sol

Pet

roC

hina

ENI

Sin

opec

Sta

toil

Pet

robr

as

Pet

roC

anad

a

Petrobras has a dividend yield comparable to the majors but below average for a privatizing company

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 55

PRICE TO 2003 EARNINGS ESTIMATES

Price Per Share / Estimated 2003 Earnings Per Share

10x

5x

12x13x

15x

12x11x

9x 8x 9x10x

8x

12x

0.0x

2.0x

4.0x

6.0x

8.0x

10.0x

12.0x

14.0x

16.0x

18.0x

Exx

onM

obil

BP

RD

She

ll

Tot

alFi

naEl

f

Che

vron

Texa

co

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Rep

sol

Sta

toil

ENI

Sin

opec

Pet

roC

anad

a

Pet

roC

hina

Pet

robr

as

Petrobras is trading at an extraordinarily low multiple of estimated ’03 earnings

Either the market is appropriately discounting its reserves as well as its inherent currency and sovereign risk; or the stock is deeply under-valued

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 56

PRICE TO 2004 EARNINGS ESTIMATES

Price Per Share / Estimated 2004 Earnings Per Share

17x

14x15x

12x

10x

13x

11x 11x

6x

15x

13x

12x

14x

0.0x

2.0x

4.0x

6.0x

8.0x

10.0x

12.0x

14.0x

16.0x

18.0x

20.0x

Exx

onM

obil

BP

RD

She

ll

Che

vron

Texa

co

Tot

alFi

naEl

f

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Rep

sol

Sta

toil

Pet

roC

anad

a

ENI

Pet

roC

hina

Sin

opec

Pet

robr

as

Petrobras is trading at an extraordinarily low multiple to estimated ’04 earnings

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 57

ONE-YEAR SHAREHOLDER RETURN

One-Year Annual Rate of Return (adjusted for dividends and splits)

18.0%

6.5% 5.7%

41.0%

21.9% 21.6%

13.8%

103.3%100.5%

94.8%

53.0% 50.5%

23.9%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

BP

RD

She

ll

Exxo

nMob

il

Rep

sol

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Tota

lFin

aElf

Che

vron

Texa

co

Petro

Chi

na

Sino

pec

Petro

bras

Petro

Can

ada

Stat

oil

ENI

Petrobras’ one-year stock performance reflects a significant recovery in 2002 following a significant decline in 2001

Year 2002 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 58

Historical Equity Price PerformanceSince the listing of its ADR on the NYSE in August 2000, Petrobras’ stock price has fallen and subsequently returned to its original price level

Petrobras Historic Price(From the date of ADR Listing on NYSE, August 10, 2000)

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

8/1/

009/

1/00

10/1

/00

11/1

/00

12/1

/00

1/1/

012/

1/01

3/1/

014/

1/01

5/1/

016/

1/01

7/1/

018/

1/01

9/1/

0110

/1/0

111

/1/0

112

/1/0

11/

1/02

2/1/

023/

1/02

4/1/

025/

1/02

6/1/

027/

1/02

8/1/

029/

1/02

10/1

/02

11/1

/02

12/1

/02

1/1/

032/

1/03

3/1/

034/

1/03

5/1/

036/

1/03

7/1/

038/

1/03

9/1/

0310

/1/0

311

/1/0

3

Dol

lars

per

com

mon

shar

e

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 59

Historical Equity Price PerformancePetrobras’ stock price has – overall – kept pace with its peers and outperformed the Amex Oil Index over the same interim

Petrobras Price Perfomance vs. S&P 500 and Oil Indices(From the date of ADR Listing on NYSE, August 10, 2000)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

8/1/

009/

1/00

10/1

/00

11/1

/00

12/1

/00

1/1/

012/

1/01

3/1/

014/

1/01

5/1/

016/

1/01

7/1/

018/

1/01

9/1/

0110

/1/0

111

/1/0

112

/1/0

11/

1/02

2/1/

023/

1/02

4/1/

025/

1/02

6/1/

027/

1/02

8/1/

029/

1/02

10/1

/02

11/1

/02

12/1

/02

1/1/

032/

1/03

3/1/

034/

1/03

5/1/

036/

1/03

7/1/

038/

1/03

9/1/

0310

/1/0

311

/1/0

3

PBR S&P 500 Oil Idex (Amex)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 60

Historical Equity Price PerformancePetrobras’ relative performance is influenced by the both the price of crude and the $US/Real exchange rate, as a majority of Petrobras’ revenues are denominated in Reais

– Devaluation of Real from 2000 through 2002 resulted in comparatively weaker equity price performance– Subsequent appreciation of the Real has caused Petrobras ADR to outperform its peers over the last

twelve monthsPetrobras Price Perfomance vs. WTI and USD/BRL Exchange Rate

(From the date of ADR Listing on NYSE, August 10, 2000)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

8/1/

009/

1/00

10/1

/00

11/1

/00

12/1

/00

1/1/

012/

1/01

3/1/

014/

1/01

5/1/

016/

1/01

7/1/

018/

1/01

9/1/

0110

/1/0

111

/1/0

112

/1/0

11/

1/02

2/1/

023/

1/02

4/1/

025/

1/02

6/1/

027/

1/02

8/1/

029/

1/02

10/1

/02

11/1

/02

12/1

/02

1/1/

032/

1/03

3/1/

034/

1/03

5/1/

036/

1/03

7/1/

038/

1/03

9/1/

0310

/1/0

311

/1/0

3

PBR USD/BRL WTI

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 61

CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS

Three overarching factors appear to be impacting Petrobras’ stock performance

1. Governmental Agency Costs

• By Brazilian Law, the federal government must maintain a controlling interest in Petrobras• Historically, Petrobras has been a vehicle for federal macroeconomic and social policies; objectives that may

compete with the goal maximizing shareholder value• In periods of high inflation, the government has set prices for oil and oil products below world market prices

– Current price-control guidelines must be consistent with gradual achievement of price deregulation• Petrobras holds U.S. $3.5 billion in National Treasury Bonds as consideration for the privatization of certain

subsidiaries– The bonds accrue interest and mature from 2007 through 2012– The government may roll those bonds over at maturity

– Typically, successful national-oil privatization programs eventually lead to a relinquishment of governmental control to shareholders

• Markets anticipate the eventual offering of large blocks of government shares • In any case, the Brazilian government intends to maintain regulatory control over Petrobras

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 62

CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS

2. Continued Oil & Gas Sector Deregulation

• Federal government has initiated an auction process for new exploration areas, and further deregulation in the downstream sector is expected

• Brazil’s antitrust agency may require Petrobras to reduce its ownership of Brazilian refining capacity, currently at 97.7%

• Deregulation may increase competition for and salaries of skilled employees in the Oil and Gas Sector

• Petrobras’ employees are represented by a union, and further attempts at deregulation may result in protest strikes

• Brazilian refined product import tariffs have been reduced from 6% to 0% in 2001, decreasing Petrobras’ competitive price advantage

– Continued deregulation and the movement toward competitive markets will erode Petrobras’competitive advantages in Brazil

• Petrobras has participated in some asset swaps, must notably with Repsol-YPF, to reduce its exposure to the Brazilian markets and increase its international diversification

• The introduction of competitive forces in Brazil afford Petrobras the opportunity for numerous joint ventures in the E&P and downstream sector. Such ventures will allow Petrobras to adopt the best practices of the world’s leading oil companies

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 63

CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS

3. Brazilian Sovereign Risk

• Brazilian economic and political conditions have a direct impact on Petrobras’ business• Exchange Rates

– 85% of Petrobras’ revenues are denominated in Reais– A substantial portion of the company’s debt is denominated, or indexed to, the U.S. dollar– The Brazilian Central Bank allowed the Real to float versus the U.S. dollar on January 15, 1999– The Real has depreciated 35% versus the U.S. Dollar in 2001

December 31, 2001: R$2.31 = U.S. $1.00December 31, 2002: R$3.54 = U.S. $1.00

– 52% of the company’s total indebtedness consists of floating rate debt an short-term debt

– Previously successful national-oil privatization programs led to aggressive international diversification and growth

• Repsol-YPF; ENI; TotalFinaElf; BP

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 64

Supplemental Slide: SEGMENT EBITDAEBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes & Depreciation) ($ Billions)

$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

Exxo

nMob

il

RD

She

ll

BP

Tota

lFin

aElf

Che

vron

Texa

co

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Rep

sol

ENI

Petro

Chi

na

Stat

oil

Petro

bras

Sino

pec

Petro

Can

ada

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

OtherExploration & ProductionRefining & MarketingRM&T as percent of total

Like most major energy companies, Petrobras’EBITDA is heavily weighted to the E&P sector.However, as a proportion of EBITDA, R&M is high.

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 65

Supplemental Slide: MARKET DEBT RATIO

Long-term Debt / (Long-term Debt + Market Capitalization)

33% 32%

12%

18%

3%7%

4%

9%

13% 10%

9%

15%21%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

BP

RD

She

ll

Exx

onM

obil

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Rep

sol

Che

vron

Texa

co

Tot

alFi

naEl

f

Pet

robr

as

Sta

toil

Sin

opec

Pet

roC

anad

a

Pet

roC

hina

ENI

As with its book debt ratio, Petrobras’ is more financially leveraged than the average integrated major on a market equity basis

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 66

Supplemental Slide: FIRM VALUE PER BARREL

Firm Value (Market Capitalization + LTD) / Barrel of Oil Equivalent Reserves ($/BOE)

$8.51

$6.11

$12.86

$7.79

$6.48

$4.05

$9.93

$11.45

$7.41$7.56

$10.89 $10.58

$3.20

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Exx

onM

obil

BP

RD

She

ll

Tot

alFi

naEl

f

Che

vron

Texa

co

Con

oco

Philli

ps

Rep

sol

Pet

roC

anad

a

ENI

Sin

opec

Sta

toil

Pet

roC

hina

Pet

robr

as

Firm value related metrics suffer as a result of the company’s low equity market capitalization

Year 2002 Results Year 2001 Results Group Average (2002)

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October 2003 AEGIS ENERGY ADVISORS CORP. 67

APPENDIX

Note on interpreting Spider Diagrams:

0%20%40%60%80%

100%120%140%160%180%200%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%120%140%160%180%200%

• The overlapping irregular polygon represents the individual R&M company’s performance relative to all R&M companies.

• Points lying outside the underlying equilateral polygon indicate a higher-than-average measure.

• Points lying inside the underlying equilateral polygon indicate a lower-than-average measure.

• The overlapping irregular polygon represents the individual R&M company’s performance relative to all R&M companies.

• Points lying outside the underlying equilateral polygon indicate a higher-than-average measure.

• Points lying inside the underlying equilateral polygon indicate a lower-than-average measure.

• The underlying equilateral polygon represents the average performance of all R&M companies for which information could be compiled.

• The underlying equilateral polygon represents the average performance of all R&M companies for which information could be compiled.

Please note that for scaling purposes, the axes for the relative comparison of the subject company to the average of the group are limited graphically to the range 0 to 200%. The actual calculated values may be less than 0 or greater than 200%.