advito travel industry economic forecast 2014
DESCRIPTION
The forecast for business travel, 2014TRANSCRIPT
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©2013 ©2013
Industry Forecast2014
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Content
Outlook and risk factors
Air
Hotel
Meetings
Car rental
Rail
Appendix 1: Spotlights and September 2013 update
Appendix 2: Historical data charts
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2014 Outlook
Airlines are showing capacity
restraint in mature markets
Oil price should remain
stable
Hotel rateincreases will
be lowoutside
primarycities
Travel demand
remains generally
weak
Business travel demand will gain momentum in 2014, in line with
projected global economic recovery
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Risk factors
u Economic growth to pick upGlobal growth in 2013 will match 2012, pick up speed in 2014U.S. economy will see best performance since start of economic crisisGrowth to resume in Europe
u Oil price stable for now Oil prices above US$100/barrel for most of the last yearSupply and demand will keep prices at or below $110/barrelFuel surcharges more likely to rise than fall
u Safety and security concerns low
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. .U S
2012+2.2%2013+1.9%2014+2.5%
Euro Area2012
-0.5%2013
- 0.8%2014
+0.6%
China2012+7.8%2013+7.7%2014+8.0% Emerging
economies2012+4.8%2013+5.1%2014+5.6%
World 2012+2.1%2013+2.1%2014+2.7%
Global economic outlook (GDP)Economic growth will firm up across all regions in 2014
Source: EIU forecast, July 15, 2013
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Airfares most resilient in mature
markets
Capacity restraint
supports small fare rises in
North America and
Europe
Consolidatio n may lead to
upward pressure on
fares
Capacity growth to
lower fares in most
emerging markets2014 outlook
AirWhile airlines in the U.S. and
Europe are keeping a firm grip on capacity, soft demand will likely
prevent significant fare hikes
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Airline key performance indicatorsIATA’s latest forecast for traffic and capacity confirms emerging economies’ strong
position
2013 Forecast% change Y-o-Y
Traffic (RPK) Capacity (ASK)
North America 2.5% 2.2%Europe 5.0% 5.0%Asia-Pacific 6.6% 6.5%Middle East 13.0% 12.0%
Latin America 8.5% 7.6%Africa 8.3% 6.0%Global 5.8% 5.0%
Source: IATA Financial Forecast, September 2013
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Airfare predictions for 2014 – North AmericaFares will be flat or increase slightly in 2014,
with regional economy the most likely segment to see a rise
Business Economy
Intercontinental +1% 0%
Regional 0% +2%
Forecast of average development of airfares used by corporate clients in 2014 against 2013 (in $USD)
Source: Advito 2014 Industry Forecast
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Airfare predictions for 2014 – EuropeWith demand weak, airlines continue to show restraint on capacity growth,
keeping fare increases in the region low
Business Economy
Intercontinental +1% +2%
Regional +1% +1%
Forecast of average development of airfares used by corporate clients in 2014 against 2013 (in € EUR)
Source: Advito 2014 Industry Forecast
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Airfare predictions for 2014 – AsiaWeaker demand and down-trading will depress business fares,
but more resilient demand will provide some support to economy class fares
Forecast of average development of airfares used by corporate clients in 2014 against 2013 (in $USD)
Business Economy
Intercontinental -2% +3%
Regional -2% 0%
Source: Advito 2014 Industry Forecast
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Airfare predictions for 2014 – Latin AmericaAirfares to rise across all segments
Forecast of average development of airfares used by corporate clients in 2014 against 2013 (in $USD)
Business Economy
Intercontinental +3% +2%
Regional +2% +3%
Source: Advito 2014 Industry Forecast
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Airfare predictions for 2014 – Middle EastIntense competition between Gulf airlines will deliver lower airfares across all segments
Forecast of average development of airfares used by corporate clients in 2014 against 2013 (in € EUR)
Source: Advito 2014 Industry Forecast
Business Economy
Intercontinental -2% -2%
Regional -2% -2%
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Airfare predictions for 2014 – AfricaCompetition will lead to lower fares on intercontinental routes;
rising demand will support increases on regional routes
Forecast of average development of airfares used by corporate clients in 2014 against 2013 (in € EUR)
Source: Advito 2014 Industry Forecast
Business Economy
Intercontinental +3% +2%
Regional +2% +3%
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Airfare predictions for 2014 – Southwest PacificIntense competition in Australian market will ensure that airfares remain largely
unchanged
Forecast of average development of airfares used by corporate clients in 2014 against 2013 (in $USD)
Source: Advito 2014 Industry Forecast
Business Economy
Intercontinental 0% 0%
Regional 0% -1%
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ADR increases will
be minimal in Europe
Latin America to
see strongest rise in ADR
Argentinaand Brazil to
see biggest rises in ADR
Most other regions will
see modest ADR
increases2014 outlook Hotel
Hotel companies will look to raise corporate rates by 4-6% for 2014, but are likely to achieve only half
this level on average
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North America
+2-4%
Europe+0-2%
Asia+1-3%
Latin America+6-8%
Southwest Pacific+1-3%
Hotel average daily rate (ADR) 2014 forecast by regionIn 2014, ADR will grow only slightly in Europe,
but we expect stronger rises in other regions—especially Latin America
Middle East+2-4%
Africa+3-5%
Source: Advito 2014 Industry Forecast
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Hotel ADR: 2014 forecast by market
RU -2% to +1%
CN +0-3%
KO +0-2%
SG +2-3%
AE -1% to +2%
IN -1% to +1%MX -1% to +1%
BR +6-8%
TR +4-6%ES-IT-PT +1-3%DE-FR-UK +1-3% AT +1-2% CH+0-2% BE-SE +0-1% IE-NL -1% to +1% CZ -2% to +1%
AR +7-9%
AU +1-3%
JP +2-4%
DK-NO +0-1%FI + +1-3%
ZA +3-5%
SA +3-5%
US +3-5%
Forecast of average development of hotel rates used by corporate clients in 2014 against 2013 (local currency)
Source: Advito 2014 Industry Forecast
CA -1% to +1%
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Demand growth is steady
Rates to rise faster in -first tier cities
Hotels to look for higher
increases in 2014
Supplyremains tightin North
America and Europe2014 outlook
Meetings
Availability will become an increasing problem, especially as booking lead times continue to
shrink
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2014 outlook Car rental
19
Rate rises unlikely to
stick
Multinational agreements
becoming morepopular
Stricter capacity control may make it
harder to find cars at airport
locations
Intense competition should keep corporate car rental rates in check, with increases staying at or below
4%
2014 outlook
Competition will keep rates in check
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2014 outlook Car rental
-High speed fares in Europe may
start to fallCalifornia won’t
see high-speed rail before 2020
China -high speed rail back on
track
Corporate rail bookings are increasingly moving online to
reduce booking fees
2014 outlook
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Appendix
//Internal note//• Pick slides from the appendix that work
for your client
Appendix 1: Spotlights and September updates
Appendix 2: Historical data charts
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Appendix 1 Spotlights and September 2013 update
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Spotlights
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• Legal challenge from U.S. DOJ based on industry capacity, pricing
•Airlines appealing
•Deal likely to succeed (with concessions)
THE SCOOP
Four carriers would control
80%of U.S. air traffic
American Airlines and US Airways merger
Spotlight
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Hybrid
model
•Actively pursuing corporate traffic
•Starting to fly long haul leisure routes
•Pay for legroom, baggage, fast track and lounge
THE SCOOP
Hybrid airlines
Spotlight
Example hybrid airlines
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Unbundling trend continues
Unbundling
THE SCOOP
Reporting remains major challenge
Loyalty program membership helps some travelers avoid these charges—at least for now
Unbundling
Spotlight
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Increasing interest in merging transient travel and meetings programs• Improved leverage of spend
•Better risk management
Integrating travel and meetings
THE SCOOP
Initial focus is often sourcing
Under pressure to integrate travel and meetings, some hotels are reluctant to do so
Spotlight
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•Multinational corporate contracting on the rise
•Competitive international marketplace
•But each player has gaps
THE SCOOP
3Global players
International corporate car rental agreementsSpotlight
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Air – 2013 update
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Business Economy
Intercontinental -1%◄ -2%◄
Regional -2%◄ 0%◄
Forecast of average development of airfares used by corporate clients in 2014 against 2013 (in $USD)
◄ Indicates revision to previous forecast
Source: Advito 2013 Industry Forecast Update, September 2013
Airfare predictions for 2013 – North AmericaSmall fare decreases now expected across almost all segments
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Business Economy
Intercontinental +1%◄ +2%
Regional +1%◄ -1%◄
Forecast of average development of airfares used by corporate clients in 2014 against 2013 (in € EUR)
◄ Indicates revision to previous forecast
Source: Advito 2013 Industry Forecast Update, September 2013
Airfare predictions for 2013 – EuropeForecasts have been lowered across all segments except intercontinental economy
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Business Economy
Intercontinental 0%◄ 2%◄
Regional 0%◄ 0%◄
Forecast of average development of airfares used by corporate clients in 2014 against 2013 (in $USD)
◄ Indicates revision to previous forecast
Source: Advito 2013 Industry Forecast Update, September 2013
Airfare predictions for 2013 – AsiaThe forecast has been downgraded,
and fare rises are only expected in the intercontinental economy segment
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Business Economy
Intercontinental +2%◄ +4%
Regional +3% +5%
Forecast of average development of airfares used by corporate clients in 2014 against 2013 (in $USD)
◄ Indicates revision to previous forecast
Source: Advito 2013 Industry Forecast Update, September 2013
Airfare predictions for 2013 – Latin AmericaThe outlook remains largely unchanged;
strong demand growth means airfares will rise across all segments
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Business Economy
Intercontinental -5%◄ -1%◄
Regional -5%◄ -5%◄
Forecast of average development of airfares used by corporate clients in 2014 against 2013 (in € EUR)
◄ Indicates revision to previous forecast
Source: Advito 2013 Industry Forecast Update, September 2013
Airfare predictions for 2013 – Middle EastIncreasing capacity by Gulf carriers is pushing prices down across the board
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Business Economy
Intercontinental 0% +2%
Regional +2% 0%
Forecast of average development of airfares used by corporate clients in 2014 against 2013 (in € EUR)
◄ Indicates revision to previous forecast
Source: Advito 2013 Industry Forecast Update, September 2013
Airfare predictions for 2013 – AfricaThere will be little or no growth in air fares in African markets
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Business Economy
Intercontinental -2%◄ 0%
Regional +1% -2%◄
Forecast of average development of airfares used by corporate clients in 2014 against 2013 (in $USD)
◄ Indicates revision to previous forecastSource: Advito 2013 Industry Forecast Update, September 2013
Airfare predictions for 2013 – Southwest PacificExcess capacity and intense competition are leading to lower airfares
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Hotels – 2013 update
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North America
+4-7%
Europe+1-4%
Asia+4-6%
Latin America
+8-12%
Southwest Pacific+5-8%
Hotel average daily rate (ADR) 2014 forecast by regionIn 2014, ADR will grow only slightly in Europe,
but we expect stronger rises in other regions—especially Latin America
Middle East+2-4%
Africa+4-6%
Source: Advito 2013 Industry Forecast Update, September 2013
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Hotel ADR: 2014 forecast by market
RU +2-3%
CN +2-5%
KO +5-7%
SG +2%◄
AE +2-4%
IN +1-4%MX +2-5%
BR +15-18%
BE-FR-NL-UK+2-3%AT-CH-IE-SE+2-3%TR +2-4% DE +3-4% CZ +0-2% ES-IT +0-1% PT -1% to +0%
AR +9-12%
AU +5-8%
JP +5-7%
DK-NO +0-1%FI + +0-1%
ZA +8-10%
SA +2-4% US +4-7%
Forecast of average development of hotel rates used by corporate clients in 2014 against 2013 (local currency)Source: Advito 2013 Industry Forecast Update, September 2013
CA +3-4%
◄ Indicates revision to previous forecast
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Appendix 2Historical data charts
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Air
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Cost per mile
North America
Source: Advito
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Cost per mile
Europe
Source: Advito
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Cost per mile
Asia
Source: Advito
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Cost per mile
Latin America
Source: Advito
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Cost per mile
Middle East
Source: Advito
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Cost per mile
Africa
Source: Advito
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Cost per mile
Southwest Pacific
Source: Advito
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Economy class ratio
North America
Based on weighted average for first five months in each year
Source: Advito
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Economy class ratio
Europe
Source: Advito Based on weighted average for first five months in each year
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Economy class ratio
Asia
Source: Advito Based on weighted average for first five months in each year
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Economy class ratio
Latin America
Source: Advito Based on weighted average for first five months in each year
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Economy class ratio
Middle East
Source: Advito Based on weighted average for first five months in each year
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Economy class ratio
Africa
Source: Advito Based on weighted average for first five months in each year
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Economy class ratio
Southwest Pacific
Source: Advito Based on weighted average for first five months in each year
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Advance booking
North America
Source: Advito Based on weighted average for first five months in each year
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Advance booking
Europe
Source: Advito Based on weighted average for first five months in each year
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Advance booking
Asia
Source: Advito Based on weighted average for first five months in each year
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Advance booking
Latin America
Source: Advito Based on weighted average for first five months in each year
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Advance booking
Middle East
Source: Advito Based on weighted average for first five months in each year
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Advance booking
Africa
Source: Advito Based on weighted average for first five months in each year
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62 ©2013 ©2013
Advance booking
Southwest Pacific
Source: Advito Based on weighted average for first five months in each year
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63 ©2013 ©2013
Hotel rates
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64 ©2013 ©2013
Hotel rate developments
Brazil
Source: Advito
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65 ©2013 ©2013
Hotel rate developments
Canada
Source: Advito
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66 ©2013 ©2013
Hotel rate developments
China
Source: Advito
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67 ©2013 ©2013
Hotel rate developments
France
Source: Advito
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68 ©2013 ©2013
Hotel rate developments
Germany
Source: Advito
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69 ©2013 ©2013
Hotel rate developments
India
Source: Advito
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Hotel rate developments
Ireland
Source: Advito
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71 ©2013 ©2013
Hotel rate developments
Italy
Source: Advito
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72 ©2013 ©2013
Hotel rate developments
Japan
Source: Advito
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73 ©2013 ©2013
Hotel rate developments
Korea
Source: Advito
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Hotel rate developments
Mexico
Source: Advito
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75 ©2013 ©2013
Hotel rate developments
Russia
Source: Advito
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76 ©2013 ©2013
Hotel rate developments
Singapore
Source: Advito
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77 ©2013 ©2013
Hotel rate developments
South Africa
Source: Advito
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78 ©2013 ©2013
Hotel rate developments
United Arab Emirates
Source: Advito
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79 ©2013 ©2013
Hotel rate developments
United Kingdom
Source: Advito
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Hotel rate developments
United States
Source: Advito
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81 ©2013 ©2013
Historic hotel ADR development
Top U.S . cities 2012 2013
ADR US$ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Atlanta ADR
1393.0%
1394.7%
1373.7%
1427.5%
1433.0%
Boston ADR
1977.2%
27313.7%
2573.9%
2392.3%
196-0.5%
Charlotte ADR
1310.2%
1353.8%
1389.0%
1396.0%
14510.7%
Chicago ADR
1646.4%
2226.8%
2176.9%
2216.1%
1724.8%
Dallas ADR
1380.6%
1438.9%
1396.3%
1413.6%
1476.4%
Denver ADR
1442.0%
1545.8%
1542.0%
1495.3%
1504.2%
Houston ADR
1436.3%
1484.8%
1415.5%
1468.6%
1569.1%
Indianapolis ADR
12010.5%
1174.6%
1175.1%
1175.9%
118-2.0%
Las Vegas ADR
1568.9%
1448.6%
124-5.1%
132-1.8%
155-0.5%
Los Angeles ADR
1817.6%
19515.0%
19011.7%
1899.9%
1915.3%
Top U.S . cities 2012 2013
ADR US$ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
New Orleans ADR
1789.9%
1747.6%
1359.1%
1661.4%
1948.6%
New York ADR
2610.1%
3423.5%
3280.3%
3805.3%
2827.9%
Philadelphia ADR
1671.6%
1949.8%
1773.7%
177-0.2%
1712.3%
Phoenix ADR
143-6.7%
117-3.0%
103-1.4%
1280.5%
1494.3%
Portland ADR
1277.9%
1355.7%
1426.7%
1366.8%
1389.2%
St. Louis ADR
1200.7%
1293.3%
1272.3%
1240.6%
1232.2%
San Diego ADR
1504.4%
1525.7%
1563.2%
1461.4%
1500.2%
San Francisco
ADR
23613.9%
24514.7%
27115.3%
2569.3%
2506.1%
Seattle ADR
1583.7%
1725.1%
1875.3%
1642.4%
1590.3%
Washington ADR
244-0.4%
2813.5%
2433.5%
2572.4%
2471.0%
United States
Source: Advito
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82 ©2013 ©2013
Top European cities 2012 2013
ADR local currency Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Amsterdam ADR
1513.3%
1664.2%
1621.6%
1550.5%
144-5.0%
Barcelona ADR
15326.1%
17117.8%
155-6.5%
1508.5%
1604.7%
Berlin ADR
120-2.1%
1180.2%
13010.7%
1163.6%
117-2.2%
Brussels ADR
1602.2%
1714.4%
1510.4%
1663.2%
159-0.9%
Copenhagen ADR
11683.4%
13148.0%
12452.4%
1158-1.5%
1112-4.7%
Dublin ADR
1154.1%
1278.5%
1307.7%
1201.9%
1161.2%
Düsseldorf ADR
1242.1%
131-7.2%
1122.7%
1280.0%
120-3.5%
Frankfurt ADR
1520.7%
16013.4%
1504.4%
1523.4%
1562.5%
Hamburg ADR
1205.1%
1240.6%
127-0.1%
1191.6%
113-5.5%
London ADR
1705.9%
1862.8%
1840.1%
1928.3%
1848.4%
Top European cities 2012 2013
ADR local currency Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Madrid ADR
13312.8%
1387.1%
125-8.2%
1411.6%
1351.5%
Milan ADR
1784.2%
1782.9%
1790.1%
158-7.0%
1907.1%
Moscow ADR
96420.9%
102096.8%
9519-1.3%
99303.7%
9510-1.4%
Munich ADR
135-0.5%
16416.5%
1667.1%
16113.4%
14810.0%
Paris ADR
1977.1%
2253.5%
2234.3%
2126.0%
197-0.5%
Prague ADR
28535.0%
33315.0%
33011.0%
30950.9%
2798-1.9%
Rome ADR
156-0.8%
188-1.0%
1956.4%
1771.9%
18720.4%
Stockholm ADR
16090.1%
17631.5%
1703-1.4%
1665-1.5%
1555-3.4%
Vienna ADR
1384.8%
143-0.2%
1557.5%
1430.8%
133-3.7%
Warsaw ADR
48314.9%
61822.3%
464-8.9%
468-11.6%
421-12.9%
Historic hotel ADR development
Europe
Source: Advito
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83 ©2013 ©2013
Historic hotel ADR development
Other cities in Asia, North America and Latin America
Top Asian cities 2012 2013
ADR local currency Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Bangkok ADRYoY
4677-4.2%
4739-3.2%
4719-1.4%
4785-0.5%
50177.3%
Beijing ADR
11405.7%
12106.1%
11281.4%
1100-2.1%
1085-4.8%
Delhi ADR
644741.6%
5496-5.9%
3970N/A
7644-22.0%
5726-11.0%
Hong Kong ADR
24381.2%
23079.5%
22194.1%
24612.8%
24761.6%
Mumbai ADR
9670-5.3%
8716-4.5%
8462-1.9%
9269-6.7%
9372-3.1%
Seoul ADR
2561495.5%
27388611.4%
2573953.6%
264134-1.7%
253077-1.2%
Shanghai ADR
12524.6%
12864.8%
12222.8%
12391.1%
1168-6.7%
Singapore ADR
3338.4%
3203.9%
314-2.5%
307-2.5%
316-5.0%
Sydney ADR
2759.3%
2557.3%
2460.1%
2762.5%
2843.6%
Tokyo ADR
229529.1%
232438.9%
226766.8%
2421010.4%
242955.9%
Canada & LatAm 2012 2013
ADR local currency Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Buenos Aires ADR
80920.1%
74610.8%
745-0.8%
7929.2%
8282.3%
Lima ADR
5564.5%
5660.7%
5645.0%
5475.3%
510-8.2%
Mexico City ADR
18115.9%
192020.4%
17726.5%
1794-2.2%
18622.8%
Montreal ADR
1512.2%
163-0.6%
159-2.4%
154-3.2%
150-0.4%
Rio de Janeiro
ADR
42519.6%
44223.1%
43918.5%
46013.0%
47912.7%
San Jose ADR
8379511.3%
69663-9.5%
65932-12.0%
63895-22.0%
68786-21.0%
Santiago ADR
10819426.8%
11450929.5%
954095.1%
108790-1.1%
99740-7.8%
Sao Paulo ADR
40132.3%
44035.7%
40823.4%
42624.9%
44210.2%
Toronto ADR
1636.7%
1673.5%
1671.4%
1681.2%
1672.2%
Vancouver ADR
1582.9%
1833.4%
1830.1%
`1642.0%
1580.0%
Source: Advito
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Tier distributionIn key markets
Source: Advito
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85 ©2013 ©2013
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