Advancing foresight methodology through networked conversations

Ted FullerPeter De SmedtDale Rothman

European Science FoundationCOllaboration in Science and Technology Action A22 (COST A22)

FTA Seville, Sept 2006

Aims

To understand and articulate methodological bases in order to re-examine and develop methods that are methodologically consistent and therefore robust

The context is foresight practice – ways of exploring, examining and negotiating the relationship between present actions and future outcomes

Sustainability an organising principle

COST A22“Exploring New Ways to Explore the Future"

A four year programme (2004-7)

Opportunities for previously unconnected communities to learn from each other’s experience and expertise with Foresight methodologies.

Networks of over 150 academics, consultants and policy / S&T practitioners from 23 countries

Research and development of Foresight methodology

Communication of and co-operation on foresight methodology among researchers andpractitioners

Questions addressed

How to perceive what is needed?How to learn from practice?How to do better?

Developing insights into the role of foresight,

for example: Foresight Practice is a continuous linkage between theories of social change and society – for instance : visions…dialogue… practice

Reflecting and revising

Methodology

‘Methods of knowing’, i.e. that gives an explanation of ‘how we know’ something

Puzzle solving devices which require us to make assumptions of what the world is and what stands for knowledge

NB from this perspective Delphi, impact analysis, scenarios etc. etc. are methods rather than methodologies

Working Groups

Working Group 1

Working Group 2

Working Group 3

“Identifying seeds of change”

“Integrating narratives and numbers”

“Interactions between researchers, decision-makers, and the public”

Description

Working Group 0

Sensing

Modelling

Discourse, communication and power

Focus

Foundations of meaning

“Definition of concepts”

Also, inter-group working via WG0

Example of inter-group work in progress

Some key methodological features of foresight

•Time •Descriptive difference•Representation •Production of difference •Simulation•Communication and

meaning•Reflexivity•Participation•Action •Values

Example of mapping: “difference”

Difference:, i.e. abstraction from real worlds and re-categorising of concepts or events are fundamental to producing descriptions of different futures

Methodological issues include: “creativity, boundaries, meta-analysis, symbols, ordering, classification, situatedness, redundancy, coherence, selection, risk”, i.e. ways of abstracting and describing differences

• Time • Descriptive

difference• Representation • Production of

difference • Simulation• Communication

and meaning• Reflexivity• Participation• Action • Values

Outputs

Documentation2 or 3 special editions of journals (e.g. Futures, Technological Forecasting and Social Change)Planned Book (s) and ReportsWorking papers on web site

www.costa22.org

Network collaborationsJoint project proposalsNew educational courses (e.g. Masters degree in foresight/innovation)Linkages with other EU networks (e.g. ForSociety,ForLearn etc.)

Conference…

Main dissemination events:

FROM ORACLES TO DIALOGUE“Exploring new ways to explore the future”A COST A22 conferenceNational Technical University, Athens, Greece9-11 July 2007 Call for papers in October 2007 linked to working group themes

SUMMER SCHOOLNational Technical University, Athens, Greece12-13 July 2007

Futures…

Foresight in a reflexive world-Continuous reappraisal of linkages between social theory and foresight practice-Coherent development of social foresight competence – order in diversity-New methodological features reflecting social and technological change:

-Critical dialogue-Theory-in-practice-Communities of practice-Wiki power

RoadmapsExample: technology road-maps

Roadmaps

Foundations

Consumption/use

Assimilation, production, distribution

Time

• Linking theory and practice

• Space for dialogue between communities

• Vision (explicit and contestable)

“Reflexive” roadmaps

Epistemology, Methodology

Practice: strategy, policy, actions

Methods, structures

Time

implicit

explicit

Foresight Practice: a flow of knowledge that informs dialogue, meaning and responsibility

- between society and social theory- between action and policy

Thank you

Questions?