ADMS-Airport and its application toPSDH and the R3/Mixed Mode

consultation for Heathrow

Study conducted for DfT

David CarruthersDavid CarruthersCambridge Environmental Research ConsultantsCambridge Environmental Research Consultants

OMEGA International Conference on Airport Air Quality

London, October 14 2008

Contents

• Key Factors affecting AQ at Airports• Features of ADMS-Airport• Model Set-Up and Emissions• AQ Monitoring at Heathrow• AQ Monitoring at Heathrow• Model Performance and Results

1) Key factors affectingair quality at airportsair quality at airports

Key factors affecting air quality at airports

• Emissions • Background concentrations• Meteorology• Near field dispersion processes• Near field dispersion processes• Chemical reactions

2) Features of ADMS-Airport2) Features of ADMS-Airport

Features of ADMS-Airport

• An extension of ADMS-Urban – Gaussian type model nested in regional trajectory model

• Includes chemical reaction scheme, meteorological preprocessor, Monin-Obukhov and mixed layer scaling for boundary layer structurescaling for boundary layer structure

• Allowance for up to 6500 sources: road (1500, each with up to 50 vertices), point, line area and volume (1500), grid sources (3000) and up to 500 runway sources (exhaust modelled as moving jets)

• Other airport features­ Hour by hour time varying data ­ Multi-segment line sources e.g. taxi ways­ GIS link displays line, volume and runway sources

Features: MODELLING EXHAUSTS AS MOVING

JETS - TAKE-OFF

• Models engine exhausts as moving jet sources

• As the aircraft accelerates ­ buoyancy and emissions increasingly spread along the

runway

­ the exhaust jet sees a faster ambient wind speed, this affects the plume rise

• The plume from the faster aircraft rises less than that from a slower aircraft

Local and Regional Scales

Main model domain

Box model domain

• Main model nested within large, area-wide trajectory model

Backgound monitoring site

First source

U

3) Model Set-Up andEmissionsEmissions

• 2010 Segregated Mode (2010SM)

• 2015 Segregated Mode (2015SM)• 2015 Segregated Mode with Easterly Preference (2015EP)

• 2015 Segregated Mode with No Cranford Agreement (2015NoC)

Heathrow: SCENARIOS

• 2015 Mixed Mode (2015MM)• 2015 Mixed Mode with traffic mitigation (2015MMRd)

• 2030 Mixed Mode (2030MM)

• 2020 Third Runway (2020R3)

• 2030 Third Runway (2030R3)

0° 10°20°

30°

40°

50°

60°

70°

80°280°

290°

300°

310°

320°

330°340°

350°

100

200

300

400

500

600

Heathrow: METEOROLOGICAL DATA 2002

0

0

3

1.5

6

3.1

10

5.1

16

8.2

(knots)

(m/s)

Wind speed

90°

100°

110°

120°

130°

140°

150°160°

170°180°190°200°

210°

220°

230°

240°

250°

260°

270°

Heathrow: BACKGROUND CONCENTRATIONS,

AVERAGE

30

40

50

60A

nn

ua

l A

ve

rag

e (

µg

/m³)

NOxNO2

%

%

%

%Harwell Rochester

WickenFen

4° to 184°184° to 4°

%

%

%

%Harwell Rochester

WickenFen

220°to

330°

330°to60°

60°to

135°135°

to220°

0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

An

nu

al

Av

era

ge

(µ

g/m

³)

O3PM10

%

LullingtonHeath

%

LullingtonHeath

• Gridded sources for all of London (LAEI,NAEI)

• Roads – local to Heathrow from LAEI (London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory) and the Heathrow Inventory (Heathrow area road

Heathrow: EMISSION SOURCES

Heathrow Inventory (Heathrow area road traffic data from Hyder)

• LTO: taxi-in, taxi-out, landing, approach, initial climb, climb out (AEA)

• Other: APU, airside vehicles, car parks, taxi ranks modelled as area or volume sources (AEA)

Heathrow: ANNUAL NOx EMISSIONS, ROAD & AIRPORT

4000

5000

6000

NO

x em

issi

on

s (t

/yr)

0

1000

2000

3000

2002 Base 2010 SM 2015 SM 2015 MM 2020 R3 2030 MM 2030 R3

NO

x em

issi

on

s (t

/yr)

Road

Airport

Heathrow: PRIMARY NO2 EMISSIONS

10%

15%

20%

25%

Ro

ad T

raff

ic P

rim

ary

NO

2

Heathrow areaRest of London

0%

5%

10%

2002 2010 2015 2020 2030

Year

Ro

ad T

raff

ic P

rim

ary

NO

2

Industrial sources: 10% primary NO2 assumedPrimary NO2 for aircraft depends on thrust100% - 4.5%; 85% - 5.3%; 30% - 15.0%; 7% - 37.5%

Heathrow: TRAFFIC EMISSION FACTORS

• Light duty vehicles, arabic numerals: 4, 5, 6

• Heavy duty vehicles, roman numerals: IV, V, VI

• Motorcycles, arabic numerals: 4, 5, 6 but may have different entry dates from the light duty vehicles

Euro 5 and V Euro 6 and VIEuro 5 and V Euro 6 and VI

Petrol cars Jan 2010 -

Petrol LGVs Jan 2011 -

Diesel cars Jan 2010 Jan 2015

Diesel LGVs Jan 2011 Jan 2016

HDVs Oct 2008 Jan 2013

Heathrow: TRAFFIC EMISSION FACTORS – RIGID HDV

EURO V & VI rigid (urban, 2010)

8

10

12

emis

sion

fac

tor

(g/k

m)

0

2

4

6

8

0 50 100 150

speed

emis

sion

fac

tor

(g/k

m)

EURO VEURO VIP07 - EURO VP07 - EURO VI

Heathrow: TRAFFIC EMISSION FACTORS – ARTIC HDV

EURO V & VI articulated (urban, 2010)

8

10

12

emis

sion

fact

or (

g/km

)

0

2

4

6

8

0 50 100 150

speed

emis

sion

fact

or (

g/km

)

EURO VEURO VIP07 - EURO VP07 - EURO VI

Heathrow: CURRENT AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS

TAKE-OFF 1

• BA have developed a method to relate information on take-off thrust to be derived from information on actual take-off weight

• The methodology is based on analysis of an extensive set of FDR and weight data for the fleet at Heathrow

• The method has been extended for use with airlines • The method has been extended for use with airlines other than BA and aircraft outside the data set by adding 5% to the estimate of thrust to account for uncertainties

Heathrow: CURRENT APU EMISSIONS

• NOX­ BA defined 6 APU class, each aircraft at Heathrow was

assigned to one the classes

­ Model emission indices were derived by BA from the detailed manufacturers’ data

• PM10­ BA found a large variability in modal PM10 emission rates

­ The variability was found to be reduced if the PM10 emission rates were expressed as a function of the corresponding NOX index

­ Three classes of APU were defined with different NOX-PM10 relationships

Heathrow: FUTURE AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS

TAKE-OFF

• Based on judgement by Qinetiq on evolution of aircraft engines for current fleet and future fleet.

• Takes into account manufacturers targets, technology expectations technology expectations

• Emissions primarily characterised in terms relative to CAEP/4 limits

• Higher average take-off thrust settings on R3

4) AQ Monitoring at Heathrow4) AQ Monitoring at Heathrow

Heathrow: AMBIENT MONITORING SITES 1

Heathrow: MONITORED NOX CONCENTRATIONS

NOx trends with 2002 and 2010 predictions

250

300

350

400

co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

mg/m

3)

LHR2

LHR5

LHR6

LHR8

LHR10

LHR11

LHR14

LHR15

LHR16

LHR17

LHR18

0

50

100

150

200

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Year

NO

x c

on

cen

trat

ion

( LHR18

LHR2 predicted

LHR5 predicted

LHR6 predicted

LHR8 predicted

LHR10 predicted

LHR11 predicted

LHR14 predicted

LHR15 predicted

LHR16 predicted

LHR17 predicted

LHR18 predicted

Heathrow: MONITORED NO2 CONCENTRATIONS

NO2 trends with 2002 and 2010 predictions

50

60

70

g/m

3)

LHR2

LHR5

LHR6

LHR8

LHR10

LHR11

LHR14

LHR15

LHR16

0

10

20

30

40

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Year

NO

2 c

on

cen

trat

ion

(mg

/m

LHR17

LHR18

LHR2 predicted

LHR5 predicted

LHR6 predicted

LHR8 predicted

LHR10 predicted

LHR11 predicted

LHR14 predicted

LHR15 predicted

LHR16 predicted

LHR17 predicted

LHR18 predicted

Heathrow: MONITORED NO2/NOX RATIO

NO2 / NOx ratio trend

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

/ NO

x r

atio

LHR2

LHR5

LHR6

LHR10

LHR11

LHR14

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

NO

2 /

NO

LHR14

LHR15

LHR16

LHR17

LHR8

5) Model performance andResultsResults

LHR2

LHR16

LHR10

100

150

200

250

Mo

del

led

NO

x (u

g/m

3)

LHR16 LHR2

LHR8

LHR5LHR11

LHR14LHR15

LHR10

30

40

50

60

70

Mo

del

led

NO

2 (u

g/m

3)

Scatter plot comparison of monitored and modelled annual average NOX and NO2

LHR5LHR11

LHR14

LHR8LHR15LHR6

0

50

100

0 50 100 150 200 250

Measured NOx (ug/m3)

Mo

del

led

NO

x (u

g/m

3)

LHR6LHR8

0

10

20

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Measured NO2 (ug/m3)M

od

elle

d N

O2

(ug

/m3)

LHR2 “Box and whisker” plots for the ratio of (calculated/monitored) concentrations, NOX (top) and NO2 (bottom).

Box and whisker plot of the ratio of modelled to monitored NO2 concentration

10

Box and whisker plot of the ratio of modelled to monitored NOx concentration

0.1

1

10

LHR2 LHR5 LHR6 LHR8 LHR10 LHR11 LHR14 LHR15 LHR16

Ra

tio

of

NO

x c

on

cen

tra

tio

n

The lines indicate the 75th, 50th and 25th

percentiles and the lines extend from the 95th to 5th percentile.

0.1

1

10

LHR2 LHR5 LHR6 LHR8 LHR10 LHR11 LHR14 LHR15 LHR16

Ra

tio

of

NO

2 co

nce

ntr

atio

n

LHR2 LHR5 LHR6 LHR8 LHR10 LHR11 LHR14 LHR15 LHR16

LHR2 diurnal variation ADMS-Airport (solid line) compared with measured data (dotted line), different runway use

100

120

140

160N

Ox

co

nc

en

tra

tio

n (

ug

/m3

)

D LHR2-LHR8 Measured

D LHR2-LHR8 Modelled

A LHR2-LHR8 Measured

A LHR2-LHR8 Modelled

0

20

40

60

80

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Hour of the day

NO

x c

on

ce

ntr

ati

on

(u

g/m

3)

176000

177000

178000

179000

180000

181000

orth

ing

(me

tres

)

40

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

BaseCaseNOX

503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000

Easting (metres)

173000

174000

175000

176000

No

1

2

5

10

20

30

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

176000

177000

178000

179000

180000

181000

rth

ing

(met

res)

35

40

50

60

70

80BaseCaseNO2

503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000

Easting (metres)

173000

174000

175000

176000

Nor

0

10

20

30

35

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

176000

177000

178000

179000

180000

181000

Nor

thin

g(m

etre

s)

30

33

36

39

42

45

BaseCaseozone

503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000

Easting (metres)

173000

174000

175000

N

15

18

21

24

27

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000

Easting (metres)

173000

174000

175000

176000

177000

178000

179000

180000

181000

No

rthi

ng(m

etre

s)

1

2

3

4

5

10

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000

173000

174000

175000

176000

177000

178000

179000

180000

181000

Nor

thin

g(m

etre

s)

1

2

3

4

5

10

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Easting (metres)

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000

Easting (metres)

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000

Easting (metres)

173000

174000

175000

176000

177000

178000

179000

180000

181000

Nor

thin

g(m

etr

es)

1

2

3

4

5

10

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

PM10 due to -All sources (top left)-Airport and other airport sources (top right)-Road sources (bottom)

Page 41, “Adding Capacity at Heathrow Airport: Consultation Document”, Department for Transport, November 2007

503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000

173000

174000

175000

176000

177000

178000

179000

180000

181000

Nor

thin

g(m

etr

es)

2002 Base Case 2010 SM 2015 SM

Predicted NO2 concentrations

Easting (metres)

503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000

Eastings (metres)

173000

174000

175000

176000

177000

178000

179000

180000

181000

Nor

thin

gs(m

etre

s)

2015 MM 2020 R3 2030 R3

Scenarios: ANNUAL AVERAGE CONCENTRATION OF

NOx and NO2 ACROSS THE DOMAIN

50

60

70

80

90A

nn

ual

ave

rag

e (µ

g/m

³)

0

10

20

30

40

50

2002 base 2010 SM 2015 SM 2015 MM 2020 R3 2030 R3 2030 MM

An

nu

al a

vera

ge

(µg

/m³)

Average NOxAverage NO2

Scenarios: NUMBER OF PROPERTIES &

POPULATION PREDICTED TO EXCEED NO2 LIMIT

Case Properties Population

2002 Base 7336 17581

2010SM 1386 3126

2015SM 56 1392015SM 56 139

2015MM 91 199

2015MMrd 35 75

2030MM 0 0

2020R3 0 0

2030R3 0 0

Scenarios: NUMBER OF PROPERTIES PREDICTED

TO EXCEED NO2 LIMIT

5000

6000

7000

8000P

rop

erti

es E

xcee

din

g 4

0µg

/m³

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2002 base 2010 SM 2015 SM 2015 MM 2020 R3 2030 R3 2030 MM

Pro

per

ties

Exc

eed

ing

40µ

g/m

³

Scenarios: PERCENTAGE AREA OF DOMAIN

EXCEEDING NO2 LIMIT

15

20

25P

erc

en

tag

e a

rea

ex

ce

ed

ing

40

µg

/m³

0

5

10

2002 base 2010 SM 2015 SM 2015 MM 2020 R3 2030 R3 2030 MM

Pe

rce

nta

ge

are

a e

xc

ee

din

g 4

0µ

g/m

³

Scenarios: PDFs OF ANNUAL AVERGAE NO2

CONCENTRATIONS

0.08

0.1

0.12

Pro

bab

ilit

y 2002 Base

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Annual average NO2 (µg/m³)

Pro

bab

ilit

y

2015MM

2030MM

2030 R3

Scenarios: AREA EXCEEDING NO2 LIMIT AS A

FUNCTION OF AIRPORT AND ROAD NOX EMISSIONS

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500A

vera

ge

NO

x E

mis

sio

ns

fro

m R

oad

Tra

ffic

(t/

yr)

2002 BaseSize = AreaExceeding40µg/m³

0

500

1000

1500

2000

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Average NOx Emissions from Airport (t/yr)

Ave

rag

e N

Ox

Em

issi

on

s fr

om

Ro

ad T

raff

ic (

t/yr

)

2010 SM

2015 SM

2015 MM

2030 MM2030 R3

2020 R3

Conclusions

Key factors affecting pollutant concentrations in the neighbourhood of airports include the following:

• Emissions including primary NO2

• Background concentrations e.g. O3

• Meteorology• Meteorology• Near field dispersion processes• Chemical reactions

Heathrow Mixed Mode and R3 – Consultation period over; DfT preparing response