administrative data at statistics canada – current uses and the way forward
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Administrative Data at Statistics Canada – Current Uses and the Way Forward. 27 th Voorburg Group Meeting Warsaw, Poland André Loranger October 4, 2012. Outline. Introduction Tax Data Goods and Service Tax (GST) Annual Tax Increased use of GST data Monthly Food Services Survey - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Administrative Data at Statistics Canada – Current Uses and the Way Forward
27th Voorburg Group MeetingWarsaw, Poland
André LorangerOctober 4, 2012
Outline
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Introduction Tax Data
• Goods and Service Tax (GST)
• Annual Tax
Increased use of GST data• Monthly Food Services Survey
• Quarterly Services Indicators
Increased use of Annual Tax data Summary and Future Work
Introduction
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Statistics Canada has a long history of using administrative data• Direct tabulation – Trade statistics
• Frame maintenance – Business Register
• Survey evaluation – Data confrontation
More recently, in business surveys program• Take none estimation
• ‘Replacing’ survey data
Introduction, cont.
Benefits realized• Reduced collection costs
• Increased data quality
• Reduction of respondent burden
Current uses somewhat constrained until recently
Will discuss two recent methodologies that significantly increase use of tax data and some future uses
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Tax Data
Tax data collected by Canadian Revenue Agency (CRA)• Monthly Goods and Services Tax (GST) data
• Annual tax (T1 and T2) data
Goal of CRA is non-statistical, so very little verification of data performed
Statistics Canada receives data from CRA and ‘processes’ the data
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Tax Data – GST
A tax of 5% levied on all goods and services• Similar to Value Added Tax in other countries
Depending on size of business, data remitted monthly, quarterly or annually
Data provided to Statistics Canada 7 to 8 weeks after reference month
Processing at Statistics Canada comprises outlier detection, imputation and calendarization
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Tax Data – GST, cont. Database containing monthly sales for all
businesses produced GST data used by three mission critical monthly
surveys Survey data ‘replaced’ by GST data for a portion
of ‘simple’ units and for take none• Model needed to account for conceptual differences
and timeliness issues Once replaced, modified GST data treated as
survey data
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Tax data – GST, cont.
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Survey
Tax Data
TA
TS
TN
ii xy ̂
Note: Simples only
Tax data – Annual tax
Two types:• T1 – Unincorporated businesses (individuals)• T2 – Incorporated businesses
For T1, have electronic filers (~80% of universe) plus 2 variables for entire universe• Produce calibrated estimates at aggregated levels
For T2, Statistics Canada receives universe from CRA ‘Processing’ done at Statistics Canada (outlier
detection, imputation, allocation to details…)
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Tax data – Annual, cont.
T2 data used in Unified Enterprise Survey (UES) The UES
• Consists of over 60 annual business surveys
• Uses common concepts and methodology
• Collects financial and non-financial data
T2 information linked to survey variables through COA (financial variables only)• No model needed
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Tax data – Annual, cont.
T2 information used to replace survey data for a portion of simple units and take none units
Several different implementations• 55% of sampled simples replaced
• 100% of simples replaced (financial data). Sample for non-financial data
• 100% of non-sampled simples replaced. Non-financial estimates calibrated
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Tax data – Annual, cont
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TS
TA
ii xy
TN
TS
TA
ii xy
TN
Survey Tax Data
Increased use of GST data
Current use of GST data restricted due to operational constraints• Use of existing systems
• Trust in tax data
Two sub-annual surveys recently redesigned/developed• Opportunity to significantly increase use of GST data
Monthly Food Services Survey (MFSS) Quarterly Services Indicators (QSI)
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Increased use of GST data – MFSS
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Estimates sales and number of locations of restaurants, caterers and drinking places
Combines typical business survey design with a strategy that takes full advantage of tax data
In certain strata, use GST data as auxiliary data for simple businesses and typical survey for complex ones• Estimate based on small sample of simples improved
by use of tax data
In other strata, use typical survey design
Increased use of GST data – MFSS, cont.
GST data used as auxiliary data for:• ~25,000 businesses based on sample of ~500 for
model building
• ~40,000 businesses in take none
Resulted in• Significant improvement in precision for sample of
~500 units
• Reduction in respondent burden
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Increased use of GST data – QSI Need to improve availability of sub-annual
services industries data Goals of QSI
• Produce quarter-to-quarter movements
Levels less important ?• Economical
GST data used for all simple businesses, with traditional survey of complex ones• No sample of simple businesses to build model
Universe of simple businesses defined by GST data
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Increased use of GST data – Challenges
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Business status• Deaths in GST data identified based on remittance or not• MFSS based on business register, so not severely affected by deaths in GST data• QSI based on GST data, so estimates affected by deaths in GST data
Increased use of GST data – Challenges, cont. Updating of GST data
• Monthly updates received from CRA
▫ Late remittances and corrections▫ Full processing performed to produce another ‘vintage’ of
data for particular reference month.− Better information?
• Both MFSS and QSI publish revised estimates
▫ Some of the revision coming from ‘reprocessed’ GST data (imputation and calendarization)
▫ Not a true reflection of economy
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Increased use of Annual Tax Data
UES is now over ten years old and is starting to show its age
A major redesign is being planned and increasing the use of tax data is one goal
One possible option• Complex businesses continue to be surveyed
▫ Covers both financial and non-financial data▫ ‘Optimized’ for financial data
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Increased use of Annual Tax Data, cont.
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• For simple businesses, tax data becomes source of financial information
Can tax be used for small complex businesses?• Survey simple businesses only to respond to specific
program/data needs
Commodities for example
‘Optimized’ for data needs since financial information coming from tax data
Increased use of Annual Tax Data, cont.
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• For simple businesses, tax data becomes source of financial information
Can tax be used for small complex businesses?• Survey simple businesses only to respond to specific
program/data needs
Commodities for example
‘Optimized’ for data needs since financial information coming from tax data
Increased use of Annual Tax Data, cont.
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Complex
TA TS
TN
SimpleTax Data
Full questionnaire (financial and commodities)
Commodities only
Increased use of Annual Tax Data - Challenges
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Business status and industry coding• Many updates come from survey feedback
• Nature of business report?
Combine with commodity questions?• Close co-operation with CRA to obtain this
information?
Acceptance by users• Possible break in series
Summary and Future Work
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Use of GST data in MFSS and QSI step in right direction but still some challenges
Plans discussed to increase use of annual tax data but some work still to do
Statistics Canada also looking at broadening and deepening use of tax data• Tax schedules
• Uses outside business survey program
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Discussion