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Adjusting strategy for the new context
September 2011
Nomura Financial Services Conference
2
DISCLAIMER
• This document is not an offer of securities for sale in the United States, Canada, Australia, Japan or any other jurisdiction, Securities may not be offered or sold in the United States unless they are registered pursuant to the US Securities Act of 1933 or are exempt from such registration. Any public offering of securities in the United States, Canada, Australia or Japan would be made by means of a prospectus that will contain detailed information about the company and management, including financial statements
• The information in this presentation has been prepared under the scope of the International Financial Reporting Standards (‘IFRS’) of BCP Group for the purposes of the preparation of the consolidated financial statements under Regulation (CE) 1606/2002
• The figures presented do not constitute any form of commitment by BCP in regard to future earnings.
• First six months figures for 2010 and 2011 were subject to a limited revision by External Auditors
3
Portugal A short term challenge
Budget deficit (% of GDP)
2010
2007
2.7 0.6
(0.1)
6.7
(1.9)
2.8
10.6 6.1
32.2
9.6 9.2 9.1
2010
2007
Public debt (% of GDP)
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011
Real GDP growth
Source: Bank of Portugal, International Monetary Fund
Public debt below Greece, Italy or Ireland, in line with USA, but above EU average
Budget defict in line with many European countries and US but above EU average
Low GDP growth in the past decade
4
Portugal Long term strengths
Source: ECB; INE
1998=100
80130180230280330
2010200920082007200620052004200320022001200019991998
House price index
Increase in age-related expenditure as % of GDP
Trade balance (% of GDP)
Exports by destination (% of total exports)
Source: INE, Bank of Portugal, Eurostat
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Q1.11
Trade Balance Energy Balance
Note: Total includes pension, health and long-term care, unemployment and education age related expenditures Source: European Commission “2009 Report on Fiscal Sustainability”.
With Pensions
chg in % of GDP
2010 to 2060
Total
chg in % of GDP
2010 to 2060
Greece 12,5 16
Spain 6,2 8,3
Ireland 5,9 8,7
Belgium 4,5 6,6
Netherlands 4 9,4
Slovakia 3,6 5,5
EA average 2,7 5,1
Finland 2,6 5,9
Germany 2,5 5,1
UK 2,5 4,8
EU27 average 2,3 4,6
Portugal 1,5 2,9
Austria 1 3,3
France 0,6 2,2
Italy -0,4 1,6
81
19
76
24
2004 H1.11
Ex-EU
EU27
Source: INE, Bank of Portugal, Eurostat
5
Portugal A resilient financial system
Sources: BdP
Spain
Greece
Italy
Ireland
Portugal
Deposits Portugal vs Euro area (Private individuals, % yoy) Aid as % of GDP (2009)
Belgium 9.57% United Kingdom 7.65% Ireland 6.74% Greece 5.13% Latonia 4.62% Germany 4.15% Denmark 3.60% Austria 3.37% Sweden 2.90% Luxembourg 2.33% Nederland 1.70% France 1.40% Cyprus 1.36% Spain 0.70% Slovenia 0.57% Hungary 0.38% Italy 0.27% Portugal 0.04% Finland Not used Poland Not used Slovakia Not used Lithuania Approved in 2010
Country
0
5
10
15
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5 RoE (lhs) RoA (rhs)
Government aid to banking sector
Profitability (before taxes and minority interests)
Trade balance (% of GDP)
Exposure to public debt by financial system (as % of total assets)
6
Structural change in the market along three key variables
Portuguese banking sector
9.10
1.20
-1.32
0.45
3.30
1.98
Market stagnation Annual growth of volumes. %
Negative funding costs
Spreads of term deposits over 3M Euribor. bps
Increase in NPLs NPLs. % total credit
2000-07 2008-10 2000-07 2010 2000-07 2008-10
Combined impact on the profitability of the sector Reduction in ROE from 18% in 2007 to 8% in 2010
7
Millennium’s response: key progress levers in the last three years
Turnaround of operation in Poland Transparent management (recognition of ~100M€ in impairments in 2009) and recovery of profitability (81M€ vs. ~0€ in 2009)
Reinforcement of risk management standards Conservative provisioning policies (recognition of 713M€ in impairments in 2010) and reduction of the funding gap (~1.6b€ in Portugal between 2007 and 2010)
Improvement in capital ratios Capital increase in Portugal (1.30b€ in 2008 & 1.37b€ in 2011), Poland (258M€ in 2009), and Angola (83M€ in 2009); deleveraging and optimization of RWAs (~5b€ in 2010)
Initiation of focus of international portfolio Divestment of operations in USA (sale of branches & deposits; partial sale of credit portfolio) and Turkey (sale of the operation)
Defense of leadership position in Portugal Larger client base, financial margin & distribution network (#1 bank in market share)
Recovery of banking income Repricing of portfolios and increase in commissions (+113 bps spread in company’s credit portfolio and +250 bps spread in new production of mortgage)
Improvement in operational efficiency levels Reduction of the cost base (-115M€ recurring costs in 2010 vs. 2007)
Reinforcement of growth in Africa Launch of operation in Angola and sustained growth in Mozambique (operations in Africa with +70 branches & growth of +106% of banking revenues between 2007 and 2010)
8
Portugal: leadership and resilience of strong franchise
PORTUGAL
Loans to customers
9.9%
10.7%
14.9%
20.3%
21.8%
BPI
Totta
BES
BCP
CGD
9.9%
10.5%
14.5%
19.0%
27.5%
Totta
BPI
BES
BCP
CGD
Branch network
758
768
804
853
891
BPI
BES
Totta
CGD
BCP
Net interest income*
10.4%
11.3%
19.7%
29.2%
29.4%
BPI
Totta
BES
CGD
BCP
* Consolidated values of the 5 biggest banks in Portugal for 1S11 Source: Market shares are based on Bank of Portugal and Portuguese banks’ public data for 1S11, branch network: 4Q10
Customer funds
9
Recent priorities Asset repricing drives improved NIM with robust fee and commission income growth
Net interest income Fees and commissions
Portugal corporate spreads Portugal mortgage spreads
(Euro million)
(Contractual spread, %) (Contractual spread, %)
(Euro million)
0.83 0.93 0.89 0.88 1.11
1.61
1.94 2.22
2.04 2.00
2.37 2.54
2.67 2.77
0.99 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.11
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11
New production Portfolio
2.50 2.51 2.73 3.18
3.88 4.11 4.36 4.07 3.91 4.05 4.61
5.03 5.75
7.05
1.64 1.71 1.74 1.79 1.96 2.06 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.49 2.64 2.77 2.93 3.27
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11
Portugal International Portugal International
283 213 206 216 211 235 253 285 260 258
91
89 116 120 130 129 134 140 141 148
374
302 323 336 341 364 387 425 402 406
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11
119 132 132 139 138 142 144 148 136 147
49 46 55 59 64 61 53 62 60 59 169 178 187 198 202 203 197 210
195 206
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11
+1.1% +5.2%
+8.7% +21.9%
10
1,253 1,207 1,031 979 985
480 459
472 542 640
562 618
297 290
1,725 1,749 1,671
1,540 1,603
777 750
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1H10 1H11
-7.1%
Recent priorities Reduction of the cost base
Operating costs
(Eur million)
Note: staff costs in 1Q11 include a reversal of provisions in the amount of 31.4 million euros associated with pension charges of former members of the Executive Board of Directors and in 2Q11 include early retirement costs in the amount of 3.4 million euros
-3.5%
Portugal International
Portugal costs per business volume *
118
110
104
91
86
Bank 4
Bank 3
Bank 2
Bank 1
BCP
* Business volumes defined as gross loans (excluding guaranties) plus customer funds (excluding pension funds)
Source: Most recently company report
11
Mortgage 11.3
Consumer 91.1
Companies 469.2
61% 18% 7% 14% With real estate guarantees (3.2% overdue) With other guarantees (3.8% overdue) Without guarantees (19.2% overdue) Other * (1.1% overdue)
250220
122 130
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
12% 8% 10% 22% 10% 23% 16% 0-40 40-50 50-60 60-75 75-80 80-90 >90
9%
7%
7%
4% 4% 1% 3%
16% Mortgage 42%
Consumer 6%
Companies 52%
Loans by sector
Impairment charges
House price index and LTV
Loans by collateral
Other sectors
Transp. and communications Other national activities Commerce Other int. activities
Construction
Real estate – commercial and retail
Other services
LTV of mortgage portfolio in Portugal
251.0
83.1
42.9 16.4 75.9
Impairment charges in 1H11 by sector
Other sectors Transp. and communications
Commerce Construction
Services
Recent priorities Diversified and well collateralised loan book, with reinforced provisioning
Note: figures adjusted for a Repo transaction, in the amount of 2,256 million euros, as at 30 June 2011 * Consists of International (5.2%; 0.4% overdue), public sector (1.1%; 0.1% overdue), factoring (1.6%; 0.1% overdue)
and leasing (6.2%; 2.2% overdue) Note: “Overdue” figures show total loans overdue as % of total loans for each type
Note: Customer funds and loans to customers were adjusted from a Repo operation, in the amount of 2,256 million euros, on 30 June 2011
(Eur million)
98 bp 147 bp
384
562
1H10 1H11
Impairment charges net of recoveries as % of total gross
loans
12
Implications for the strategic agenda : four key business drivers
1. Ensure solvency ratios above regulatory requirements
2. Manage deleveraging process to stabilize balance sheet funding
3. Recover & improve profitability level of operation in Portugal
4. Focus international portfolio according to attractiveness & availability of resources
CT1 9% in 2011 10% in 2012
L/D 120% in 2014
ROE >10% (after stabilization of the economic cycle)
13
Capital increase allows to reach a Core Tier I ratio of 8.5% and Tier I of 9.3%, placing Millennium bcp in line with peers
8.6% 9.2% 9.3%
Jun 10 Mar 11 Jun 11
Core tier I
Tier I
10.3%
58,400
5.6% 6.7% 8.5%
Jun 10 Mar 11 Jun 11
10.5%
58,432
10.0%
62,359
Standard IRB IRB
Solvency ratio
Consolidated
RWA (M€)
Total ratio
Note: the Bank received authorization from the Bank of Portugal (BoP) to adopt IRB methods for the calculation of own funds requirements for credit risks, as from 31 December 2010. Estimates of the probability of default and the lost given default (IRB Advanced) for the retail small companies exposures collateralized by commercial or residential real state, and estimates of the probability of default (IRB Foundation) for the corporate portfolio were considered in Portugal, excluding real estate promotion segment and simplified rating system. At the 1st semester of 2009, the Bank received authorization from BoP to adopt the advanced method (internal model) to generic market risk and standard method for the operational risk
Capital increase
Deleveraging
Republic of Portugal ratings
Devaluation of the insurance company portfolio
Main impacts in 2Q11
Additional initiatives in capital plan
Liability management
Deleveraging
RWA optimization
Disposal of non core assets
IRB Advanced (Poland, credit cards, current accounts, non-collateralized credit and corporates)
Evaluation of new strategic partnerships and other capital management initiatives
14
29.2 26.6 25.1 24.1 22.6
Jun 10 Sep 10 Dec 10 Mar 11 Jun 11
1.0
7.3 10.6 11.3
16.5 17.8 20.6 20.1 20.1
Dec 07
Dec 08
Dec 09
Mar 10
Jun 10
Sep 10
Dec 10
Mar 11
Jun 11
-6.6
**
78.2 76.6 76.4 75.3 74.4
49.0 50.1 51.3 51.2 51.8
Jun 10 Sep 10 Dec 10 Mar 11 Jun 11
-3,8
Adjusting to the new funding environment...
Commercial gap* Eligible assets for Central Banks and repos
* Calculated with gross loans and balance sheet customer funds (deposits and debt securities owed to customers) ** includes an operation that has ceased to be integrated into the pool at the end of March and it was already taken up during the month of April Note: Customer funds and loans to customers were adjusted from a Repo operation, in the amount of 2,256 million euros, on 30 June 2011
Deleveraging process is well underway
Commercial gap falls €6.6bn since the deepening of the sovereign crisis
Eligible asset pool has been maintained above €20bn, in spite of rating downgrades for Portuguese Republic and Portuguese companies
(Eur billion)
On-BS Customer Funds*
Gross Loans
Gross Loans and on-BS customer funds*
15
1 3 2.9
16.1 14.9 14.7 15.0
1.5 0.3
4.3 7.7
1.9 5.7 3.9 4.8
1.0
7.3 10.6
18.0 20.6 20.1 20.1
2007 2008 2009 Jul 10 2010 Mar 11 Jun 11
5.2 4.9
2.4
0.3
4.0
1.0
3.4
0.4 1.3
1.8
0.3
2009 2010 1S11 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 >2018
160% 153% 149% 147% 144%
Jun 10 Sep 10 Dec 10 Mar 11 Jun 11
***
**
... with a clear funding plan
Assets eligible for central banks and repos Refinancing needs of medium-long term debt
Financing structure (Eur billion)
Loan to Deposit ratio*
…in spite of the repayment of almost all debt for 2011. Future annual refinancing needs are lower than in the past
Deposits are the main funding source Deleveraging has begun
ECB usage maintained at the same level than in previous quarters…
Deleveraging to reduce the
commercial gap
Reduction of ECB usage
Diversification of funding sources
Commitment with wholesale
market refinancing
* Calculated with gross loans and balance sheet customer funds (deposits and debt securities owed to customers) ** includes an operation that has ceased to be integrated into the pool at the end of March and it was already taken up during the month of April *** includes €0.2bn of repurchase of own debt Note: Customer funds and loans to customers were adjusted from a Repo operation, in the amount of 2,256 million euros, on 30 June 2011
Utilized Repos Free
51.8
12.6 1.1
0.3
15.0
7.4
Deposits and equivalent
MLT institutional debt
ST institutional debt
Repos
ECB
Own capital
Already repaid
16
Angola & Mozambique Reference bank Growth opportunities Strong commitment to
country/region
Other “Affinity Markets” Natural partner of
clients abroad Leverage of domestic
franchise Relevant geographies:
Africa, Brazil & China
Portugal Market leadership Culture of excellence Advantages from scale
Robustness of business platform in Portugal as base for the future
High potential geographies to support medium-term growth
Access to additional business opportunities through partnerships
New priorities A new corporate vision - “national champion with high standards of excellence”
17
Portugal: Reinforced leadership position
Projecto MNew business model
Restructuring ofthe operative modelOperational efficiency
Specialized partnershipsGrowth platform
New service model for affluent & business segments, and improved proposition for younger & self-directed segment More efficient service model for Mass Market Distinctive multichannel platform,
reconfiguration of branch network – capacity optimization
Process redesign in front and back office; implementation of “lean strategies” Capacity adjustment of new operating model Reinforced capacity and efficiency in credit
recovery
Enhancement of banking business (real estate, leasing/factoring, insurance & investment banking) Broadening of “non banking” product and
service offer (“beyond banking”)
Restructuring initiatives in Portugal
18
Angola & Mozambique: platform for growth in Africa
16413911694 +74% branches
+76%employees
2.8022.4352.0731.780
(M€)
+106%banking revenue
245195144119
(M€)
+85%net income
+41 +56 +67 +76
Variation 2007-2010 Reinforced operational
base for growth in the region
Increased importance of the business in Africa (from <5% of international portfolio net income in 2007 to >100% in 2010)
Initiatives in progress― Expansion (in the
short-term) to São Tomé & Príncipe and Namibia
― Launch of mobile banking business (in analysis)
AngolaMoçambique
19
New markets: growth in other “affinity markets”
Growth platform to pursue additional opportunities
Holding
50% 30% 20%
New geographies New businesses
( … ) ( … )
100% % %
%
Other local partners?
%
Specialized partners?
Creation of Holding with 100% of BMA
Platform focused on growth in new geographies with affinity with Portugal/Africa and new businesses
Proven track record & capabilities in Commercial Banking in international markets
Initiatives underway to explore trade finance flows & direct investment– Obtain banking license in Brazil– Reinforce physical presence in China
20
European portfolio under evaluation - “non-core” in the new strategy
Stabilize operation & reduce negative impact on results
Recent recovery after severe economic crisis (~7% declien in GDP in 2009) High levels of credi risk (NPL ~12%) Mbcp currently #18 player in the market; break even expected in 3 years
Decline of GDP (4% in 2011) and increase in country risk (CDS 5y spread >1250 bps) Successive increase in credit risk (NPL ~10% in 2010) and stagnation of volumes growth Mbcp currently the #10 player in the market with increased dilution of results
Explore options to reduce exposure to Greek market
Positive economic growth prospects (~3% in 2011), attractive banking sector with high potential (~7% growth in volumes) Market undergoing consolidation – interest of international operators Mbcp currently #6 player in the market; attractive operation with robust financials
Evaluate opportunities to capture value
21
Greece: Explore options to reduce exposure
Option to integrate the operation through a merger with domestic player
Value creation rational supported on potential commercial synergies (at least 2x increase in footprint to >300 branches) and costs (reduction of opex >40M€/year)
Millennium bcp with a minority interest in na established entity/banking group
Significant advantages in balance sheet management & risk– book value (incl. goodwill) of ~510M€, ~4.1 mM€ of RWAs, ~2,2 mM€ of funding gap
Approach underway with support of external advisors– high uncertainty regarding timings given current market context
[1]
[2]
[3]
[4]
[5]
[10]
…
19%
Share of assets3Q 2010
18%
12%
10%
6%
1%
22
Poland: Evaluate opportunities to capture value
Resilient banking sector with robust performance levels (P/B 2,0x)
Sector under consolidation with the involvement / interest of various local and international players
Demanding capital requirements to (i) maintain solvency in line with market standards (top 10 with 14%) and (ii) significant volumes growth
Recent transactions with attractive multiples (P/B 2.6x and 1.7x for WBK and Polbank respectively)
Mbcp operation well positioned in competitive terms; strong potential to capture value
Options being analyzed with the support from external advisors
[1]
[2]
[3]
[4]
[5]
[6]
15%
Share of assets3Q 2010
12%
7%
5%
5%
4%
23
Reaping the benefits of a franchise with a network with broad national coverage and strong growth potential
… Branch market share
>=5%
3-5%
<3%
Number of retail branches per region
The 7th largest in deposits and 4th largest in loans to customers
Zachodnio-pomorskie
Pomorskie Warmińsko-mazurskie
Podlaskie
Lubelskie
Podkarpackie
Mazowieckie
Łódzkie
Wielkopolskie Lubuskie
Dolnośląskie
Opolskie Śląskie
Małopolskie
Świętokrzyskie
7
32
23
44
29
10
22
3
111
8
31
4%
8% 6%
3%
3%
6%
2%
4% 4%
3%
3%
4%
3%
5%
3%
2%
26
4%
Kujawsko-pomorskie
72
9
9
Deposits 1
2.1%
3.5%
3.9%
5.0%
5.3%
6.0%
6.7%
7.2%
15.3%
19.9%
BPH
Citi
Kredyt Bank
Millennium
Getin
BZ WBK
BRE
ING
Pekao
PKO BP
Loans to customers 1
1.7%
3.8%
4.1%
4.6%
4.8%
4.8%
5.1%
7.8%
11.9%
18.2%
Citi
Kredyt Bank
BPH
Getin
ING
BZ WBK
Millennium
BRE
Pekao
PKO BP
1. Values from the Polish Banks Association and Polish Asset Managers Association (September 30, 2010)
19.9% 15.7%
0.1%
8.5% 10.2% 14.5% 15.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 1Q11 2Q12 Target 2013E
5th largest bank in Poland
Participation: 65.5% Book value: 814mn€ Invested capital: 729mn€
Return on Equity
Market cap: 1.3 bn€ Equity: 1.0 bn€ P/BV: 1.3 x
24
Following Millennium bcp capital increase and recent price depreciation, the bank trades at reduced multiples
1,802
859
943
Millennium bcp market capitalization
65.5% Poland (market capitalization)
Millennium ex-Poland market capitalization
PBV=0.31 PBV=1.27
PBV=0.18
100%=€1,311mn
5,855 65%=679 5,176 Equity 1H11 € mn
~20% market share in Portugal ~36% market share in Mozambique ~4% market share in Angola ~1% market share in Greece
Market capitalization
€mn
2.5% 2.8% 3.0% 3.1% 3.7% 3.6% 3.8% 3.8% 4.1% 4.2% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 4.9% 4.9% 5.4%
6.8% 7.3% 7.4%
8.3% 10.5%
14.1%
BCP ex-Pol BMPS
RBS EFG
Sabadell KBC BPI
Commerzbank BoI
Unicredit Alpha
NBG Intesa
Barclays SocGen Lloyds
BES BNP Paribas
Popular Santander
BBVA Bankinter
Market capitalization in % of Deposits
Note: prices of August 26, 2011. Source: Bloomberg and company reports
25
Basis for the future of Millennium bcp…
...leadership in number of clients >2M & market share >20% in higher vale segments
... largest network in terms of physical touchpoints (>900 sucursais)
... undisputed leadership in internet & mobile channels
...growth of ActivoBank to >100 thousand clients
...leadership in market share of customer funds >20% in line with market share of credit
...reference in terms of efficiency levels with C/I <50%
...attractive returns with ROE >10% (after stabilization of current cycle)
...solid balance sheet with CT1 >10% and L/D <120%
...presence in >4 African countries with strong growth prospects
...network of reference partnerships to explore new markets/business
branches)
26
Banco Comercial Português, S.A., a public company (sociedade aberta) having its registered office at Praça D. João I, 28, Oporto, registered at the Commercial Registry of Oporto, with the single commercial and tax identification number 501 525 882 and the share capital of EUR 6.064.999.986
Investor Relations Division:
Sofia Raposo, Head of Investor Relations
Francisco Pulido Valente
João Godinho Duarte
Tl: +351 21 1131 085
Email: [email protected]