Addressing Emissions from Mobile Sources

Sameer Akbar

The World Bank

National Workshop on Urban Air Pollution

Lahore, Pakistan

December 13-15, 2004

Content

1.1. Background and ContextBackground and Context

2.2. Questions for appraisal of policy options Questions for appraisal of policy options to tackle emissions from urban transport to tackle emissions from urban transport Dhaka example: phase out of two-stroke Dhaka example: phase out of two-stroke three-wheelersthree-wheelers

1. Background and Context

Emissions

Disper

sion

Mod

elingM

eteo

rolo

gy Ambient ConcentrationPopulation

Distribution & Activity

Exposure

Assessment

Exposure

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent

Dos

e-R

espo

nse

Air Quality Management System•Establish objectives, identify data gaps, studies and pilots

• Identify, analyze and select management options

• Develop and implement Action Plan

Issues• Technical

• Economic

• Institutional

• Legal

• Policy

• Social

• Stakeholder Involvement

Options• Fuels & Vehicle Technology

• Traffic Management

• Standards

• Economic Incentives and Disincentives

Emission

Managem

ent

Schematic of Integrated Air Quality Management

Why do We Care About Urban Air Pollution?

Human health impactsHuman health impacts• WHO estimated more than WHO estimated more than

150,000 attributable deaths to 150,000 attributable deaths to urban air pollution in South urban air pollution in South Asia in 2002. Asia in 2002.

• Morbidity numbers are much Morbidity numbers are much higher.higher.

• Other environmental Other environmental externalities and concernsexternalities and concerns• Damage to natural and Damage to natural and

physical capital, amenity physical capital, amenity losses, noise, contribution to losses, noise, contribution to climate changeclimate change

60%28%

12%

Health impactsClimate changeOther

Note: Average for 6 developing cities

Source: Lvovsky et al.

The relative burden of environmental The relative burden of environmental damagesdamages

Role of Urban Transport Important contributor to air pollutionImportant contributor to air pollution

Lead from gasoline—a problem of the past in South Asia as Lead from gasoline—a problem of the past in South Asia as they have phased out leaded gasoline they have phased out leaded gasoline

Fine and ultrafine particles in vehicle exhaust—main concern Fine and ultrafine particles in vehicle exhaust—main concern nownow

Ozone precursors (HC and NOx) in vehicle exhaust—Ozone precursors (HC and NOx) in vehicle exhaust—emerging problem for the futureemerging problem for the future

Current realityCurrent reality Old polluting fleets and low replacement rates Old polluting fleets and low replacement rates Fuel adulteration, poor fuel quality and vehicle maintenance Fuel adulteration, poor fuel quality and vehicle maintenance

cultureculture Weak administrative capacity to regulate and monitor Weak administrative capacity to regulate and monitor

Future challengeFuture challenge Rising income and motorization will increase pollution unless Rising income and motorization will increase pollution unless

concerted measures are taken concerted measures are taken

2. Questions for appraisal of policy options to tackle emissions from

urban transport

Question 1: Are the adverse impacts of urban air pollution serious?

Is the impact of urban air pollution on public Is the impact of urban air pollution on public health and lost productivity considerable health and lost productivity considerable compared to other threats, such as:compared to other threats, such as:

Lack of access to safe drinking waterLack of access to safe drinking waterExtensive use of dirty fuels in householdsExtensive use of dirty fuels in households

YesYes:: identify problem pollutantsidentify problem pollutants

NoNo: : look for environmental benefits that can look for environmental benefits that can be achieved through “no regret” adjustments to be achieved through “no regret” adjustments to transport policy.transport policy.

Question 2:Which pollutants cause the most damage ?

Pollutants should be ranked according to toxicity, Pollutants should be ranked according to toxicity, ambient concentrations, and exposure.ambient concentrations, and exposure. Fine particulate matter is the pollutant of most Fine particulate matter is the pollutant of most

concern in South Asia.concern in South Asia. A common mistake is to rank on the basis of A common mistake is to rank on the basis of

emissions in weight based on an emissions inventory.emissions in weight based on an emissions inventory. Toxicity is not taken into account.Toxicity is not taken into account. Emissions in weight are not directly proportional Emissions in weight are not directly proportional

to ambient concentrations or exposure.to ambient concentrations or exposure.

Question 3: Does transport contribute significantly to the problem pollutants?

Need to identify the relative significance of sources contributing Need to identify the relative significance of sources contributing the most to the general population’s exposure to fine particulate air the most to the general population’s exposure to fine particulate air pollution.pollution. Large industrial plantLarge industrial plant Small and medium size industries, diesel generators.Small and medium size industries, diesel generators. Household consumption of solid fuels (biomass).Household consumption of solid fuels (biomass). Vehicular emissionsVehicular emissions.. Leaf and informal refuse burning.Leaf and informal refuse burning. Re-suspension of road-dust.Re-suspension of road-dust.

YesYes:: identify sources within the transport sectoridentify sources within the transport sector

NoNo: : look for environmental benefits that can be achieved look for environmental benefits that can be achieved through “no regret” adjustments to transport policy.through “no regret” adjustments to transport policy.

Sources within the transport sector

Transport emissions

= Emissions per unit of fuel

Fuel consumption per

unit of transport service

Total transport

services required

Addressing emissions per unit of fuel consumed

Fuel and lubricant standards and optionsFuel and lubricant standards and options Use of cleaner fuelsUse of cleaner fuels

Vehicle emission standards, enforcement, and Vehicle emission standards, enforcement, and incentivesincentives Ensuring compliance Ensuring compliance

Addressing fuel consumption per unit of transport service

Increasing vehicle fuel efficiencyIncreasing vehicle fuel efficiency New and improved technologyNew and improved technology

Encouraging non-motorized transportEncouraging non-motorized transport Provision of pedestrian spaces and cycle lanesProvision of pedestrian spaces and cycle lanes

Improving traffic managementImproving traffic management Traffic signaling systemsTraffic signaling systems

Supporting fiscal incentivesSupporting fiscal incentives Introducing competition in franchising of public Introducing competition in franchising of public

transporttransport

Reducing total transport

Restraining demand for movementRestraining demand for movement Integrating land use and transport Integrating land use and transport

planningplanning Influencing modal choiceInfluencing modal choice

Congestion pricingCongestion pricing Restraining private vehicle useRestraining private vehicle use

Parking policiesParking policies

Possible Policy Instruments

Fuel Quality ImprovementFuel Quality Improvement Vehicle Technology ImprovementVehicle Technology Improvement Traffic ManagementTraffic Management Public Transport Regulation and ControlPublic Transport Regulation and Control Vehicle Replacement StrategiesVehicle Replacement Strategies Land Use PoliciesLand Use Policies Fiscal PoliciesFiscal Policies

Question 4: How to decide on policy instruments to be used?

Summary considerations.Summary considerations. Urban transport policy will be driven by mobility and Urban transport policy will be driven by mobility and

development concernsdevelopment concerns Seek synergies with transport objectives and face Seek synergies with transport objectives and face

trade-offs to reduce air pollutiontrade-offs to reduce air pollution One size doesn’t fit all !One size doesn’t fit all ! The institutional and policy framework is fundamental The institutional and policy framework is fundamental

to long-term solutionsto long-term solutions Technology will provide major environmental gains Technology will provide major environmental gains

but will rarely be successful in a vacuumbut will rarely be successful in a vacuum Work with and not against economic incentivesWork with and not against economic incentives

3. Dhaka Example: 2-stroke phase out

Air Quality in Dhaka

…18

Seasonal AQI Trends in Dhaka

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1/04

/200

2

13/0

4/20

02

25/0

4/20

02

7/05

/200

2

19/0

5/20

02

31/0

5/20

02

12/0

6/20

02

24/0

6/20

02

6/07

/200

2

18/0

7/20

02

30/0

7/20

02

11/0

8/20

02

23/0

8/20

02

4/09

/200

2

16/0

9/20

02

28/0

9/20

02

10/1

0/20

02

22/1

0/20

02

11/3

/202

15/1

1/20

02

27/1

1/20

02

8/12

/200

2

20/1

2/20

02

Date

AQ

I

Air quality objective

Monsoon period – Air Quality OK

Non-monsoon period – Air Quality is poor

Note: PM is the major pollutant of concern in Dhaka.

Two Stroke Three-wheelers: a problem in Dhaka About 50,000 two-stroke engine gasoline-About 50,000 two-stroke engine gasoline-

fueled three-wheelers, nicknamed “baby-fueled three-wheelers, nicknamed “baby-taxis,” provided useful point-to-point taxis,” provided useful point-to-point transportation for Dhaka population.transportation for Dhaka population.

These were major sources of particulate These were major sources of particulate and hydrocarbon emissions in Dhaka. and hydrocarbon emissions in Dhaka.

Emissions were exacerbated by the use of Emissions were exacerbated by the use of inferior-quality and excess lubricant (called inferior-quality and excess lubricant (called straight mineral oil).straight mineral oil).

Dimension of the strategy

Understanding of the Problem – Understanding of the Problem – Health, Health, Technical options, Social, Fuel and Lube, dissemination, Technical options, Social, Fuel and Lube, dissemination, economic, etc.economic, etc.

Stakeholder consultation – Stakeholder consultation – extensive extensive throughout the process – a keythroughout the process – a key

Public awareness Public awareness and support through and support through information dissemination – media supportinformation dissemination – media support

Vision – Vision – milestones, legal conditions, etc.milestones, legal conditions, etc.

Policy support and use of Import tariffsPolicy support and use of Import tariffs Praying - Praying - for a political championfor a political champion

Getting on the Right Track

Identifying and meeting stakeholders to Identifying and meeting stakeholders to understand different views & issues (1996)understand different views & issues (1996)

Study tour of stakeholders to India (1997)Study tour of stakeholders to India (1997) Continuous liaison with press - 1996 onwardsContinuous liaison with press - 1996 onwards Workshop on AQM in Dhaka to better Workshop on AQM in Dhaka to better

understand emission sources and issues (1998)understand emission sources and issues (1998) Survey of public opinion found good supportSurvey of public opinion found good support Proposed Baby Taxi phase-out by 1Proposed Baby Taxi phase-out by 1stst Jan. 2003 in Jan. 2003 in

WB-funded Dhaka Urban Transport Project WB-funded Dhaka Urban Transport Project (DUTP) as a legal covenant; a phased approach.(DUTP) as a legal covenant; a phased approach.

Key Actions Undertaken in 1999-2000

DUTP Covenants ImplementedDUTP Covenants Implemented BRTA stopped registration of 2-stroke 3-wheeler by July, BRTA stopped registration of 2-stroke 3-wheeler by July,

19991999 GOB imposed 200% Supplementary duty on 2-stroke 3-GOB imposed 200% Supplementary duty on 2-stroke 3-

wheeler in July, 2000 effectively banning importwheeler in July, 2000 effectively banning import Training and Capacity BuildingTraining and Capacity Building

Training for mechanics (April 2000): 427 mechanics trained Training for mechanics (April 2000): 427 mechanics trained in maintenance for emission reduction.in maintenance for emission reduction.

Auto-clinics (Oct.-Nov. 2000): Emission reduction Auto-clinics (Oct.-Nov. 2000): Emission reduction demonstrated with the use of better lubricants and demonstrated with the use of better lubricants and maintenance on 1000 vehicles.maintenance on 1000 vehicles.

Seminar on Lube oil and Gasoline Quality for Air Quality Seminar on Lube oil and Gasoline Quality for Air Quality Improvement: Nov. 21, 2000Improvement: Nov. 21, 2000

Revision of lube oil standards by BPC: 1Revision of lube oil standards by BPC: 1stst January, 2001 January, 2001

Final Countdown To Phase-out August 2002: Earlier plan revised with stakeholder input for a two August 2002: Earlier plan revised with stakeholder input for a two

stage phase-out -- 1stage phase-out -- 1stst Sept. 2002 (pre-1995) and final 1 Sept. 2002 (pre-1995) and final 1stst Jan. 2003. Jan. 2003. 11stst Sept. 2002: First step of phase-out executed => Air is Cleaner! Sept. 2002: First step of phase-out executed => Air is Cleaner! Baby-Taxis go on a 3-day strike.Baby-Taxis go on a 3-day strike. Strong press and public support for phase-out demonstrated.Strong press and public support for phase-out demonstrated. Replacement CNG-powered 4-stroke 3-wheelers start arriving as a Replacement CNG-powered 4-stroke 3-wheelers start arriving as a

result of lowering of taxes.result of lowering of taxes. 11stst Jan. 2003: Phase-out completed => Air is much cleaner! Jan. 2003: Phase-out completed => Air is much cleaner! Good public support but some criticism in media for failure to Good public support but some criticism in media for failure to

address the phase-out impact.address the phase-out impact. Quite serious transport dislocation. Quite serious transport dislocation. Social impact partially addressed: Some owners and drivers Social impact partially addressed: Some owners and drivers

were provided with 4-stroke 3-wheelers and bus leases through were provided with 4-stroke 3-wheelers and bus leases through their associations. But no serious protest from the affected their associations. But no serious protest from the affected groups.groups.

PM10 concentrations in Dhaka declined by 31%

Levels of PM10 before and after removal of Baby Taxis (Phase-II)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

(mic

rog

ram

/ m

3)

PM10

Average

Health Benefits

Estimated decline in average yearly Estimated decline in average yearly PMPM1010 level of 24 level of 24 g/mg/m33

More than 900 premature deaths More than 900 premature deaths estimated to be avoided per year estimated to be avoided per year

About $25 million estimated to be saved About $25 million estimated to be saved in health maintenance costs per yearin health maintenance costs per year

((Methodology Used: K. Lvovsky et al Environmental Cost of Fossil Fuels: A Methodology Used: K. Lvovsky et al Environmental Cost of Fossil Fuels: A Rapid Assessment Method with Application to Six Cities, Environment Rapid Assessment Method with Application to Six Cities, Environment Department Paper No. 78 (2000), The World Bank, Washington.)Department Paper No. 78 (2000), The World Bank, Washington.)

Livelihood Impact

Drivers: 86,000Drivers: 86,000 Owners: 10,000 Owners: 10,000 Workshop owners: 600Workshop owners: 600 Mechanic and helpers: 2,600 Mechanic and helpers: 2,600 Dependents: 500,000 Dependents: 500,000

Lessons Learnt Socially difficult environmental decisions can be executed if there Socially difficult environmental decisions can be executed if there

is strong support from the public.is strong support from the public. Public support can be created by working with the Public support can be created by working with the

stakeholders and the press on genuine issues.stakeholders and the press on genuine issues. Ultimately such decisions are fundamentally the result of political Ultimately such decisions are fundamentally the result of political

Correct management of technical issues help to create the Correct management of technical issues help to create the room for the political will.room for the political will.

Careful and long-term planning is needed for the mitigation of Careful and long-term planning is needed for the mitigation of adverse impacts on both the public and the stakeholders.adverse impacts on both the public and the stakeholders. The transport services lost was not replaced immediately (or The transport services lost was not replaced immediately (or

soon after), and this created disruptions to transport services, soon after), and this created disruptions to transport services, has led to the entry of private diesel buses, thus negating some has led to the entry of private diesel buses, thus negating some of the gains of air quality improvement.of the gains of air quality improvement.

Thank You!http://www.worldbank.org/sarurbanair