addressing america’s energy challenges - duke...
TRANSCRIPT
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Addressing America’s
Energy Challenges
Steven E. Koonin
EWNP Symposium
Duke University
March 8, 2012
3
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Quadrennial
Technology
Review
September, 2011www.energy.gov/QTR
Report on the First
Report DOE/S-0001
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TODAY’S ENERGY LANDSCAPE5
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U.S. Energy Flows in 2009
6
Total energy input is approximately 95 Quads
Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
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7Source: EIA
U.S. Energy Supply Since 1850
Energy supply has changed on decadal scales
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Hydro
Coal
Wood
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U.S. Energy Challenges
Energy Security Environmental ImpactsCompetitiveness
Share of Reserves Held
by NOC/IOC
Monthly Spot Price OK WTI Global Lithium-ion Battery
Manufacturing (2009)
Worldwide Shipments of
Solar Photovoltaics (MW)
Water Withdrawals in %
By Category (2005)
111
31
1 2 4 1
49
0
20
40
60
80
Pu
bli
c su
pp
ly
Do
me
stic
Irri
ga
tio
n
Liv
est
ock
Aq
ua
cult
ure
Ind
ust
ria
l
Min
ing
pe
rce
nta
ge Thermoelectric Power
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan
-19
86
Jul-
19
87
Jan
-19
89
Jul-
19
90
Jan
-19
92
Jul-
19
93
Jan
-19
95
Jul-
19
96
Jan
-19
98
Jul-
19
99
Jan
-20
01
Jul-
20
02
Jan
-20
04
Jul-
20
05
Jan
-20
07
Jul-
20
08
Jan
-20
10
Jul-
20
11
$/b
bl
Bil
lio
n m
etr
ic t
on
s o
f C
O2
CO2 Emissions in OECD vs
non-OECD Countries
8
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U.S. Energy Flows in 2009
11
Total energy input is approximately 95 Quads
Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
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Six Strategies
www.energy.gov/QTR 12
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The Transport Logic
13
We are coupled to a global oil market
� Balance of payments, high and volatile prices, insecurity, GHGs
� Demand is growing, easy resource is concentrating
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Trends in U.S. Consumption, Production, and Net Imports
of Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels, 1949-2010
14Source: EIA
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Sources of U.S. Net Petroleum Imports, 2010
15
The United States gets close to 50% of its petroleum imports from the Western
Hemisphere and less than 20% from the Persian Gulf.
Source: EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly (May 2011).
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Global Liquids Production, 1990-2035
16Source: EIA
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US liquid fuel use
17February 2011
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18
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
2012
2015
2022
Renewable Fuel
Standard (RFS2)
Production Targets (Billions of Gallons)
Conventional (Starch) Biofuels
Biomass-based diesel
Cellulosic Biofuels
Other Advanced Biofuels
Advanced Biofuels(include cellulosic biofuels &
other than starch-based ethanol)
EISA RFS2 Mandates
15 BGY Cap
Conventional Renewable Fuel
(Corn Ethanol)
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The Transport Logic
20
We are coupled to a global oil market
� Balance of payments, high and volatile prices, insecurity, GHGs
� Demand is growing, easy resource is concentrating
Increased domestic production fixes jobs, balance of payments; not price
� We cannot produce enough fast enough to affect the global market; OPEC distorts
� Conventional and unconventional crude, biofuels, CTL/CTL/CBTL/… sold at oil price
� Go beyond “energy independence” to “price independence” (cf UK fuel riots of 2000)
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Saudi, GOM, and U.S. ethanol production
21Source: EIA
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22
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The Transport Logic
23
We are coupled to a global oil market
� Balance of payments, high and volatile prices, insecurity, GHGs
� Demand is growing, easy resource is concentrating
Increased domestic production fixes jobs, balance of payments; not price
� We cannot produce enough fast enough to affect the global market; OPEC distorts
� Conventional and unconventional crude, biofuels, CTL/CTL/CBTL/… sold at oil price
� Go beyond “energy independence” to “price independence” (cf UK fuel riots of 2000)
Must decouple from the global oil market
� Reduce oil demand materially through efficiency
� Shift LDVs to a non-fungible fuel (Grid? Hydrogen? Natural Gas?)
� Advanced biofuels for the remaining HDV demand
Strategies (ordered by cost-effectiveness and time-to-impact)
� Increasing vehicle efficiency - nearest-term impact with existing technology.
� Electrifying the light duty fleet - a graceful transition: HEVs to PHEVs to
BEVs
� Deploying alternative hydrocarbon fuels - biased toward fuels for HDVs
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Total Vehicle Fuel Use and Total U.S. Road
Vehicles in 2009
24Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Transportation Energy Data Book, 30th
Edition (2011)
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Six Strategies
25www.energy.gov/QTR
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Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy Trends:
1975–2010
26Source: EPA
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Projected Reductions in the Fuel Consumption of
Large Cars and Small Trucks through Technology
27
Source: National Research Council with data adapted by a National Petroleum Council study
committee; joint study by the Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration (EPA/NHTSA).
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New vehicle technology takes time
28
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Comparison of 2015–2020 New-Vehicle Potential Fuel-Saving
Technologies for Seven Heavy-Duty Vehicle Types
30Adapted from Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption
of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles (NAS 2009)
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Turbulence Modeling on Heavy Duty Trucks
31
SmartTruck UnderTray add-on accessories predict 12% drag reduction and 6.9% increase in EPA-certified fuel efficiency.
Simulated air flow around a heavy-duty vehicle. The turbulent flow between the tractor and the trailor and the vortex underneath the tractor increases drag and fuel consumption.
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Six Strategies
32www.energy.gov/QTR
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Relation of Fuel Prices to Crude Oil Price,
2000–2011
33Data from EIA and Nebraska Energy Office
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Progressive Electrification of the Light-Duty Fleet
Challenges with Batteries and Motors
Batteries
• Cost
• Performance
• Physical Characteristics
Adequate supply chain
• Rare-earth elements in permanent magnet motors
• Lithium in batteries
• OEM & component manufacturing capacity
Charging
• Infrastructure
• Standardization of chargers and grid interface
• Charging times
• Consumer behavior
Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)
Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)
Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)
Plug-in Electric Hybrid Vehicle (PHEV)
34
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Impacts of Plug-In Electric Range and Charging
Infrastructure
35From a forthcoming Electric Power Research Institute report, “Understanding the
Effects and Infrastructure Needs of Plug-In Electric Vehicle (PEV) Charging.”
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Current Fueling Stations in the United States
36Source: DOE EERE (for alternative fueling stations) and EIA (for gasoline stations)
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Estimated Supply Impacts of Meeting 50% of Today’s
LDV Demand by Various Alternative Fuels
37
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Six Strategies
38
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Life-Cycle Carbon Emissions for Various
Transportation Fuels
39
CTL = coal to liquids, CCS = carbon capture and storage, BTL = biomass to liquids,
CBTL = coal and biomass to liquids
Source: America's Energy Future Panel on Alternative Liquid Transportation Fuels (2009)
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Biomass can provide significant carbon
40
Fuel Fossil Agriculture BiomassA
nn
ua
l U
SC
arb
on
(M
t C
)
↑
15% of Transportation Fuels
1000
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R E
F I N
I N
G
41
Platforms / Pathways
FeedstockProduction& Logistics
• Energy crops
• Agricultural byproducts
• Waste Streams
• Algae
• Coal
• Natural Gas
•Ethanol
•Methanol
•Butanol
•Olefins
•Aromatics
•Gasoline
•Diesel
•Jet
•Dimethyl
Ether
•Heat and
Power
Co or By Products
PowerPyrolysis Oil Platform
Syngas Platform
Liquid
Bio-oil
Enzymatic Hydrolysis
Sugars Fermentation
Cellulosic Sugar Platform
Algal and other Bio-Oils
Transesterification
Catalytic Upgrading
ProductsFeedstocks
Fast Pyrolysis
Gasification
Lipid (Oil) Platform
Raw
syngas
Filtration &
Clean-up
Upgrading
Other enzymatic/biochemical methodsOther enzymatic/biochemical methods
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The Stationary Logic
43
Generation, transmission, and demand are interdependent
� More complicated than transport
The U.S. is energy independent here
� Competitiveness and environmental impacts come to the fore.
� Strengthening domestic innovation and manufacturing capabilities
� Keep energy affordable while keeping it clean
Strategies (ordered by cost-effectiveness and time-to-impact)
� Increasing energy efficiency in buildings and industry - most immediate
route to increasing energy productivity.
� Modernizing the grid will not only increase reliability and security, but also
give greater control to meet clean energy aspirations in other strategies.
� Deploying clean electricity - accommodates retirement of existing
generators and reduces environmental impacts (greenhouse gas emissions,
water, …).
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Six Strategies
44www.energy.gov/QTR
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U.S. Energy Use in Residential and Commercial
Buildings in 2008
45Source: DOE Buildings Energy Data Book
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An understanding of the interfaces between all building sub-
systems is needed for maximum energy efficiency
Building SPICE program:Tools to Design New Buildings
With Embedded Energy Analysis
Windows & Lighting
HVAC
Onsite Power & Heat
Natural Ventilation, Indoor Environment
Building Operating Platform (BOP)Sensors, Communication, Controls,
Real-Time Optimization
Building Materials
Appliances
Thermal & ElectricalStorage
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Six Strategies
49www.energy.gov/QTR
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GRID MODERNIZATION50
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The U.S. Grid
� The numbers� > 200,000 miles of transmission lines distribute approx. 1 TW of power
� Over 3,500 utility organizations
� Desiderata� Reliability
� Efficiency
� Security
� Flexibility to integrate intermittent renewables
� Two-way flow of information and power
� Growth to handle growing demand
� Challenges� Active management is required to balance generation, transmission, and
demand at all times
� Excursion from ideal operation can be catastrophic
51
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High Quality Data Recorded Prior to 2003 Blackout
52
Source: Hauer JF, NB Bhatt, K Shah, and S Kolluri. (2004). “Performance of “WAMS
East 1” in Providing Dynamic Information for the North East Blackout of August 14,
2003.” In IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting 2004
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Illustration of the Grid’s Complex Interactions
Between Governance and Operations
53
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Six Strategies
56www.energy.gov/QTR
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Deploy Clean Electricity
Other technologies
� Natural gas
� Hydro
� Solar thermal
(parabolic troughs)
� Geothermal
57
WindSolar Photovoltaic (PV)
Concentrating Solar Power
Carbon Capture and Storage
Nuclear Energy
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Additions to U.S. Electricity Generation Capacity,
1985–2035
58Source: EIA
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Age and Capacity of Generators by Fuel Type
59Source: EIA
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U.S. Natural Gas Supply, 1990-2035
60
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U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1976-2011
61Source: EIA
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Estimated Greenhouse Gas Emissions From
Generation
62CCS = Carbon Capture and Storage; CSP = Concentrating Solar Power;
NGCC = Natural Gas Combined Cycle; PV = Photovoltaic
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Annual Grid-Connected Generation Deployment
64Source: EIA
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Additions to Generation Capacity,
1970–1979 vs. 2000–2009
65Source: EIA
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Water Consumption for Various Power Generation
Technologies
66Source: NREL
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Projected 2030 Population Growth and Corresponding
State Rainfall
67Sources: NOAA and U.S. Census Bureau
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DOE’s Priority Basic Energy Research Areas
68
Materials Non-Medical Biology Informatics/Computing
•Materials theory
•Nanoscience
•Nanoelectronics
•Superconductivity
•Synthesis science
•Structural and
materials
•Tools and
techniques
•Biofuels
•Bio-remediation
•Carbon sequestration
•Coal bed methane
•De-sulphurization
•Enhanced oil recovery
•Genetically engineered
feedstocks
•Computational fluid
dynamics
•Turbulence
•Energy Storage
•Geotechnics
•Nano science
•Nuclear energy
•Predictive simulation
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The Department’s Fiscal Year 2011 Energy Technology
Budget, Categorized by Strategy
71
Total = $3.0BTotal = $3.0B
Transport = 26% Stationary = 74%
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Key Takeaways
76
� There are “stories” for Transport and Stationary
� Sensible futures, DOE’s role, technology programs
� DOE’s energy portfolio is unbalanced
� Stationary much larger than Transport
� Clean Power dominates Stationary (~50% of total)
� DOE needs integrated analytic capability (technology, business,
market, policy, and social science)
� DOE’s informational and convening roles are highly valued by
stakeholders, but under-valued within the Department (as
compared to its technical capabilities)
� DOE needs to be more selective in its technology initiatives
� QTR establishes a framework for QER and future QTRs
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www.energy.gov/QTR