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Using System Dynamics to Build Collective, Operational Understanding
or
Getting Everyone “On the Same Page”A session for the Science of HOPE Conference
Presented by
Chris Soderquist, Pontifex ConsultingApril 19, 2016
Purpose, Process, Payoff
Purpose
Provide an overview of System Dynamics
Process
• Overview • Expectations • Mental Models • The Purpose of
Simulation Modeling • Attributes of Good
Models • Understanding
Counterintuitive Behavior
• How to Build Models • Foundation for Healthy
Generations Model • Q&A
Payoff
By the end of this session you’ll be able to... • Describe the purpose
of simulation modeling • Utilize insights derived
from modeling projects • Contribute to a
modeling project
Expectations
• Very broad brush of system dynamics – the session may seem a blur!!
• We could spend (at least!) a day on many concepts
• Will engage both the left & right side of the brain...Brain Pain
• We can speed up, slow down, or mix it up…based on your needs
• FUN!!!!
Staffing at General Hospital
1. The hospital has two kinds of nurses: experienced and inexperienced.
2. The hospital has a large number of experienced nurses.
3. Experienced nurses have been quitting at the same rate each month for several years (i.e., every month the same number of experienced nurses quit).
4. The "staffing policy" has been to hire a new (inexperienced) nurse as soon as an experienced one quits.
5. The hospital’s training program is "perfect." All inexperienced nurses become experienced in exactly 6 months!
6. The training is so engaging that no inexperienced nurses ever quit before completing the program!
What pattern over time will be traced by the number of Experienced Nurses
following the step-increase in quitting volume?
Suppose that 3 months from now, the volume of experienced nurses quitting steps up by a small amount to a new level, and then remains at this level forever.
The hospital will continue their policy of hiring one inexperienced nurse for each experienced nurse that quits.
MonthA__
B__
C__ D__
E__
F__G__
OBSERVATIONS...
BTW Don’t worry if you got it wrongMost people do…I got it wrong the first timeI once presented to a room of 30 aeronautical engineers (i.e. rocket scientists) – they all got it wrong!!!
Observation
Systems Thinking can help get people on the same page about… •What is happening and
what might happen in the future •Why this is happening
(what’s the physics of the system) •What would be the most
effective strategy for handling
Beliefs about different expected behaviors will lead to extremely diverse (diametrically opposed!) ideas about...
• Is the behavior a problem?
• If so, “what to do”
Differences were not magnitude but kinds of behavior (e.g. not predicting actual amount of staff, only whether it would increase or decrease, and if so, how)
Realist
Iusemodelsallthe-metomakedecisions,
they’rejustimplicitandusuallyuntested.Icanuseamodeltomakemy
assump-onsexplicit,sharethem,improvethem,andtestthem.
Itwillimproveourabilitytorigorouslydiscusstheissues!
“
Cynic
It’sonlyamodel!Theworldismuchmorecomplex,so
it’snotuseful.Oursitua-onisuniqueso yourmodeldoesn’tapply. “
Mys-c
Itcanpredictthefuture.IfIcanjustgeteverything
intothemodel,thenitwillbeperfect.
Perspectives on Models
Allmodelsarewrong,someareuseful!—Box&Deming
Operational Thinkingvs. Correlational Thinking
Correlational Model
US Milkt = f(US Milkt-1, IRt-1, GDPt-1, Feed pricet-1, ...)
Operational Model
Operational models identify levers!
Feedback Loop Thinkingvs. Linear Thinking
Example What makes for a successful organization?
Success
Leadership
Good staff
Great product
Profits
•Linear Thinking (aka Static Thinking) says that…
•This causes that (X causes Y)…enough said!
• Feedback Loop Thinking views causality as circular rather than unidirectional in nature.
• Implications: static vs. dynamic/ongoing process perspective, exogenous vs. endogenous viewpoint.
By using models, we can better understand counterintuitive results
How to build (and frame) useful systems models
…and then add breadth and a bit more detail – slowly!
Representing “the system”1. Low Road
My advice: Take the High Road!
2. G
et u
p ou
t of t
he w
eeds…
Breadth (Time/Space) (extensive boundary)
Depth (intensive boundary)
Shallow Highly
Aggregated
Deep Highly
Disaggregated
Narrowly Focused
Broadly Focused
Many mental models
are here
Good “systems” models are here
The inevitable result of it’s all connected
http://minstrelboy.blogspot.com/2009/12/military-plan-for-afghan-war-surge-in.html
http://www.closetcooking.com/2007/07/spaghetti-alla-carbonara-with-twist.html
Example courtesy of Steve Peterson, The Peterson Group
To get on the High Road (and stay there!),
All models are wrong, some are useful- George Box & Ed Deming
Other things being equal, a simpler explanation is better than a more complex one
- William of Occam, Occam’s Razor
A model should be as simple as possible, but no simpler
- Albert Einstein
“…details are confusing. It is only by selection, by elimination, by emphasis, that we get at the real meaning of things…”
- Georgia O’Keefe
"Any intelligent fool can make things bigger and more complex. It takes a touch of genius and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction."
—A. Einstein
Match your initiatives to leverage points
Reducing symptom impact on ACE occurrence
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
Increasing/building community capacity
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Improving social/economic environment.. addressing social determinants
of health___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Improving social/economic environment.. addressing social determinants
of health___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Reducing the generation of stress_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
How to use learning labs (built on simulation models)
MINDSET=Learner!✦Participatewithintentiontolearn
✦Participantgoals✦Articulate"theories"andpredictoutcomes
✦Engagewithanygapbetweenapredictionandsimulatedoutcome
I’mheretolearnabout• theissues•myself•mycolleagues’perspectives
WhatdoIknowaboutchildhoodtrauma?IfwedidX,whatdoIpredictwouldhappen?
Hmm!Whydidn’twhatIexpecthappen?!Whatassumptionsaredifferentinthelabthanmine?
Model PurposeTheHealthyGenerationsystemdynamicsmodelwill
Eventuallybegiventocommunitiesforcapacitybuildingandstrategydevelopment
Beginguidingfoundation’s(anditsnetwork’s)investmentstrategies
Bemodifiedregularlyassystemunderstandingimproves
2016 2017 2018Lasthalfof…
2000 2050
Food Security
2000 2050
Crime
2000 2050
Intergenerational ACEs
2000 2050
Adult FunctioningHealth & Productivity
Happiness/Fulfilment Hope Avg Education level
Interventions
Improve view of self (Postive efficacy)
Capabilities
Relational / Intimate Partner / Parenting Skills
Education & Work Skills
Belonging w/ Those Who Care for Us Daily
Attachment
Healthy Social Network
Social Bridging
Rights & Responsibilities Framework
Community
Health & Effectiveness of Programs / Services
Community Muscle
…and then add breadth and a bit more detail – slowly!
Representing “the system”1. Low Road
My advice: Take the High Road!
2. G
et u
p ou
t of t
he w
eeds…
Breadth (Time/Space) (extensive boundary)
Depth (intensive boundary)
ShallowHighly
Aggregated
DeepHighly
Disaggregated
NarrowlyFocused
BroadlyFocused
Many mental models
are here
Good “systems” models are here
• Advocacy
• Marriage / Intimate Partner Commitment
• Education & Work Skills
• Social / Emotional Intelligence Skills
• Executive Functioning Skills
Examples
Capabilities
• Bridging Capital
• Reciprocity / Giving Back to Community
• Built & Natural Environment
Examples
Attachment
• Space for Cultural / Spiritual Expression
• Rhythm / Ritual / Engagement with Others
Examples
Community
Model Community
Currently modeled To Be DevelopedPopulation by…
• Age• Economic strata
ACEs
Bonding (social) capital
Protective Factors
Local economic engine
Bridging capital
Core Model Structure
Age classes*
• Current age classes are…
• Work?
*deaths and migration not shown
0-4 5-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+
ACEs
Asthepopulationages…• ACEsfirstaccumulate(inchildhoodyears)• Thenmoveuptonextagecategory
ACE incidence
Calculate current incidence rate
Increases in risk factors will change
incidence
Risk factors • ACE Prevalence
in adult population • Income deficiency • Other
Increases in protective factors will reduce
incidence
Protective factors • Bonding Capital • Bridging Capital • Other
Economic strata
• 3D icon indicates multiple strata
• Model currently assumes 2 strata
• How do / should communities classify to be useful?
INC
OM
E
<200% Federal Poverty Level?
Community Muscle
• Erodes as ACEs in adult population increases
• ACEs in adult population can decrease effectiveness of investments in community muscle
• What does investing in community muscle look like?
• How does it work?
Bridging Capital
• What generates it? What does investing in bridging capital look like?
• How does it erode?
Protective Factors
• What are the most important ones?
• How might you define resilience as one factor or a combination of factors?
• Advocacy • Marriage / Intimate
Partner Commitment • Education & Work Skills • Social / Emotional
Intelligence Skills • Executive Functioning
Skills
Protective Capabilities/Factors – When built?
0-4 5-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+Advocacy
Marriage / Intimate Partner
Commitment
Education & Work Skills
Social / Emotional
Intelligence Skills
Executive Functioning
Skills
None? Some? A lot?
Chris Soderquist Pontifex Consulting
PO Box 64Hanover, NH 03755
(603) 276-0203
Systems Thinking Resources
An Introduction to Systems Thinking with iThink Author: Barry Richmond Publisher: isee systems
Thinking in Systems: A Primer Author: Donella Meadows Publisher: Chelsea Green Publishing Company (2008)
Finding Leverage Chris Soderquist Producer: Banyan Communications Sponsor: The National Association of Chronic Disease Directors
https://vimeo.com/122034667
There are additional videos and articles on my resources page