Have Confidence in Your Digital Marketing Investments

• 9 Year SEM Veteran• 1 Dog (Peanut) • Enjoys Camping & Fishing• Collects Rocks

About Derrick: The Boring Stuff

Voted best fro in Fargo-Moorhead (2002)

About Derrick: The Good Stuff

Most Exotic Product Sold on PPC:

Iraqi Real Estate

About Derrick: The Good Stuff

An AugurAugurian helps modern day executives solve critical marketing challenges, both strategic and tactical, and take action.

• Organic Search (SEO)• Assessments & Audits

• Site Risk Mitigation • Paid Media (SEM)• Conversion Rate Optimization (CRO)• Measurement• Build equity in your team through education

and training.

Adaptive Forecasting: Huh?

“Adaptive forecasting allows you to create one forecast that speaks to a spectrum of scenarios.”

So, what is it actually?

An annualized CPA or CPL projection across potential tactics.

A projection that assumes you, like all good marketers, will ensure that your best performing tactics are fully funded first.

0 20 40 60 80 100 120$0.00

$500.00

$1,000.00

$1,500.00

$2,000.00

$2,500.00

$3,000.00

$3,500.00

$4,000.00

$4,500.00

$5,000.00

CPA per deal

Total New Deals

CPA

PHASE IGather Historical Data – Determine Scope

PHASE IIOutline Assumptions & Recalculate Data

PHASE IIIGraph & Communicate Results

A Simple Process With Undeniable Results

• Find out what is available Impression Share, Total Lead Count, CPL = Good Impression Share, Total Acq. Count, CPA = Best

• Determine Scope (Digital or All Marketing?) Ask: Will this answer the questions being asked?

Phase 1 – Gather the Data!

Phase 1 – Gather the Data!Campaign Conversions Cost/conv Search Impression Share Avg. positionPPC - Non-Brand 1234 59.11 53.64% 1.8Linkedin 5 28.28 21.87%Facebook Remarketing 15 24.67 <10%PPC - Non-Brand 93 54.3 20.74% 2.6PPC - Non-Brand 0 0 <10% 3.1GDN - Remarketing 1 556.2 85.34%Facebook Interest Targeting 14 50.63 <10%Facebook Interest Targeting 8 60.78 15.16%PPC - Brand 276 33.95 22.48% 2.8

Make Assumptions to Forecast Performance in an Ideal World

Reasons to Calculate Assumptions:• 100% impression share• Higher ad position• Bing & Yahoo included in PPC• Mid-year analytics discoveries (or tactic didn’t run full year)• Awareness boosts from other channels• New Geographies

Phase 2 – Outline Assumptions & Recalculate

State Campaign Conversions Cost/conv Search Impr Share Avg. positionActual Non-Brand PPC - 123 1,234.40 59.11 53.64% 1.8100% Impression Share Non-Brand PPC - 123 2301.27 59.11 100% 1.8100% Impr Share + Yahoo! & Bing Non-Brand PPC - 123 2761.52 59.11 100% 1.8

Phase 2 – Complete the Spreadsheet

• Determine Lead Count Per Row Note: You’ll want at least 15 rows• Enter in CPL/CPA Data• Determine how many tactics you’d like to include• Add calculating columns based on what you’d like to graph

Tactic Number of Leads Leads Per Row CPL Total Cost per 250 Leads Cumulative Cost Deals CPA per dealBrand 250 250 $25 $6,250 $6,250 5.4 $1,157.41Facebook LAL 500 250 $50 $12,500 $18,750 10.8 $1,736.11Facebook LAL 750 250 $55 $13,750 $32,500 16.2 $2,006.17Facebook Remarketing 1000 250 $60 $15,000 $47,500 21.6 $2,199.07Linkedin Direct Response 1250 250 $75 $18,750 $66,250 27 $2,453.70PPC Non-brand 1500 250 $100 $25,000 $91,250 32.4 $2,816.36Facebook Interest Targeting 1750 250 $160 $40,000 $131,250 37.8 $3,472.22

Phase 3 – The Results

250500

7501000

12501500

17502000

22502500

27503000

32503500

37504000

42504500

$-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

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$60,000

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Total Cost per 250 Incremental Leads

Total Leads

Cost

Per

250

Lead

s

Phase 3 – The Results

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

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$450,000

$500,000 0

20

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Total Digital Media Cost for New Deals

Total Media Costs

Tota

l Dea

ls

Phase 3 – The Results

0 20 40 60 80 100 120$0.00

$500.00 $1,000.00 $1,500.00 $2,000.00 $2,500.00 $3,000.00 $3,500.00 $4,000.00 $4,500.00 $5,000.00

CPA per deal

Total New Deals

CPA

Beware!

• Wield this information wisely. Be authentic, communicate well, transparency is best.• Don’t represent this forecast as perfect!

• Take inflation into account• Be careful for seasonal tactics, use different calculation rules.• Use care when taking into account tactics that have been turned off, or analyzing

accounts that have been restructured • If keyword updates have drastically improved performance, don’t use the full year,

extrapolate the most recent data• These projections assume that you’ll run these tactics over the entire next year. If you

run all tactics regardless of CPL, and use the budget you were given for an entire year your numbers will not match.

• Optimization should bend cost curve down. • Using for sales requires historical marketing data, if you don’t have this you run the risk of

potentially being very inaccurate.

Have Confidence